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The Few Bets That Matter
This is smart. It's not how the tool will be used. But it is smart.
Although we knew Vlad was smart.
$HOOD
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This is smart. It's not how the tool will be used. But it is smart.
Although we knew Vlad was smart.
$HOOD
“Some people have already started to realize that using prediction markets can be cheaper than conventional fire, flood, and hurricane insurance.”
- Vlad, Robinhood https://t.co/mSSDvJqUVs tweet
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$MELI trades at an attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~39x
2026 EPS➡️ $59.74 (+48%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $83.48 (+39%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $115.61 (+38%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS of $100 (~15% below est)
34x | 20%
32x | 17%
30x | 15%
28x | 12% https://t.co/dGLuxGgjwO
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$MELI trades at an attractive PEG
NTM P/E ~39x
2026 EPS➡️ $59.74 (+48%)
2027 EPS ➡️ $83.48 (+39%)
2028 EPS ➡️ $115.61 (+38%)
CAGR at various multiples assuming 2028 EPS of $100 (~15% below est)
34x | 20%
32x | 17%
30x | 15%
28x | 12% https://t.co/dGLuxGgjwO
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App Economy Insights
We're excited to partner with @range_finance.
Range is your ultimate centralized wealth hub.
📈 Investment strategy
⚖️ Tax optimization
🏖️ Retirement planning
📊 Cash flow & budgeting
🏠 Real estate
View all your financial data at a glance. https://t.co/SZ6WuWRHgM
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We're excited to partner with @range_finance.
Range is your ultimate centralized wealth hub.
📈 Investment strategy
⚖️ Tax optimization
🏖️ Retirement planning
📊 Cash flow & budgeting
🏠 Real estate
View all your financial data at a glance. https://t.co/SZ6WuWRHgM
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EndGame Macro
In my opinion it wasn’t some accident in the data it was useful timing, and it lines up with what was already happening underneath. Inflation has likely cooled more than the headlines suggest, especially in goods and other rate sensitive areas. The sharp drop in CPI shelter looks dramatic because of a data quirk where October prices were carried forward from September during the shutdown, effectively imputing near zero inflation for rent and OER that month. That compresses what would normally be a slow, lagged adjustment into a tighter window, making the cooling look abrupt. It doesn’t change the trend it just reveals it sooner. Private data like Zillow had already been pointing this way; CPI is just catching up, mechanically.
That matters for policy. Without this quirk, inflation would still be cooling in reality, but the official data would have looked stickier for longer because shelter lags by design. The carry forward accelerates recognition, not disinflation itself. And that recognition gives the Fed a defensible narrative to keep cutting or cut faster without appearing reactive to economic stress. They’ve already decided to ease; the pivot now is about how fast, how far, and with what tools. Shelter finally rolling in CPI provides the public justification to shift from normalizing policy to managing risk, moving earlier rather than waiting for a labor or credit problem to force their hand, all while protecting inflation credibility.
tweet
In my opinion it wasn’t some accident in the data it was useful timing, and it lines up with what was already happening underneath. Inflation has likely cooled more than the headlines suggest, especially in goods and other rate sensitive areas. The sharp drop in CPI shelter looks dramatic because of a data quirk where October prices were carried forward from September during the shutdown, effectively imputing near zero inflation for rent and OER that month. That compresses what would normally be a slow, lagged adjustment into a tighter window, making the cooling look abrupt. It doesn’t change the trend it just reveals it sooner. Private data like Zillow had already been pointing this way; CPI is just catching up, mechanically.
That matters for policy. Without this quirk, inflation would still be cooling in reality, but the official data would have looked stickier for longer because shelter lags by design. The carry forward accelerates recognition, not disinflation itself. And that recognition gives the Fed a defensible narrative to keep cutting or cut faster without appearing reactive to economic stress. They’ve already decided to ease; the pivot now is about how fast, how far, and with what tools. Shelter finally rolling in CPI provides the public justification to shift from normalizing policy to managing risk, moving earlier rather than waiting for a labor or credit problem to force their hand, all while protecting inflation credibility.
From @fcastofthemonth
"This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming October was zero. There is just no world in which this was a good idea, but here we are." tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Nick Timiraos (@NickTimiraos) on X
From @fcastofthemonth
"This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming…
"This is totally inexcusable. The BLS just assumed rent/OER were zero for October. I am sure they have a good technical explanation for this, but the only way you get a two-month average for rent of 0.06% and OER at 0.135% is assuming…
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EndGame Macro
Japan Didn’t Hike to Tighten It Hiked to Avoid Losing Control
This is Japan acknowledging something it hasn’t been able to say for most of the last 30 years which is wages are rising, companies are actually passing costs through, and inflation looks stickier than a temporary FX or energy shock. When you finally get a real wage price loop, staying at emergency era rates starts to create more risk than moving away from them. The BoJ is choosing to normalize carefully now, while it still has control, rather than wait until the yen or inflation expectations force its hand.
The yen tells you how fragile that confidence still is. Sitting around 157, it’s basically the market saying, “We hear you, but one hike doesn’t fix rate differentials or Japan’s fiscal math.” That’s why you also hear government officials stressing debt service, the neutral rate, and the need to watch the outlook. They’re not contradicting the BoJ, they’re quietly reminding everyone that normalization has limits.
Why This Matters Outside Japan
The immediate impact isn’t about Japan slowing its own economy. It’s about funding. The yen has been the world’s cheapest source of leverage for years, and Japan has been a steady buyer of global bonds. When rates rise, even modestly, that cushion thins. Carry trades get less forgiving, hedging costs go up, and global markets get choppier especially in FX and rates.
The next layer is more subtle. Higher Japanese yields and higher hedging costs can keep U.S. and European long rates from falling much, even as growth weakens. That’s a form of tightening that doesn’t come from the Fed, but it still hits credit, refinancing, and risk assets. You tend to see the stress show up first in levered credit, emerging markets, and long duration trades that depend on calm funding conditions.
If the World Slips Into Recession
This is where the setup gets uncomfortable. In a real risk off move, the yen doesn’t stay a funding currency, it often flips into a safe haven. When that happens, carry trades don’t unwind slowly; they snap. The BoJ might pause later if growth cracks, but the bigger change doesn’t go away…Japan is no longer a permanent zero rate anchor, and global leverage has to adjust to that reality.
What I’m Watching
I’m less focused on the first reaction and more on the follow through. Does USDJPY keep drifting, or does it start to move with volatility? Do hedging costs and cross currency basis tighten? How do JGB 10s and 30s behave, and does the government quietly adjust issuance to calm the long end? And most importantly, do credit spreads start to widen as rates stay sticky while growth fades?
That’s where you find out whether this was just a symbolic step or the beginning of a real shift in the global funding backdrop.
tweet
Japan Didn’t Hike to Tighten It Hiked to Avoid Losing Control
This is Japan acknowledging something it hasn’t been able to say for most of the last 30 years which is wages are rising, companies are actually passing costs through, and inflation looks stickier than a temporary FX or energy shock. When you finally get a real wage price loop, staying at emergency era rates starts to create more risk than moving away from them. The BoJ is choosing to normalize carefully now, while it still has control, rather than wait until the yen or inflation expectations force its hand.
The yen tells you how fragile that confidence still is. Sitting around 157, it’s basically the market saying, “We hear you, but one hike doesn’t fix rate differentials or Japan’s fiscal math.” That’s why you also hear government officials stressing debt service, the neutral rate, and the need to watch the outlook. They’re not contradicting the BoJ, they’re quietly reminding everyone that normalization has limits.
Why This Matters Outside Japan
The immediate impact isn’t about Japan slowing its own economy. It’s about funding. The yen has been the world’s cheapest source of leverage for years, and Japan has been a steady buyer of global bonds. When rates rise, even modestly, that cushion thins. Carry trades get less forgiving, hedging costs go up, and global markets get choppier especially in FX and rates.
The next layer is more subtle. Higher Japanese yields and higher hedging costs can keep U.S. and European long rates from falling much, even as growth weakens. That’s a form of tightening that doesn’t come from the Fed, but it still hits credit, refinancing, and risk assets. You tend to see the stress show up first in levered credit, emerging markets, and long duration trades that depend on calm funding conditions.
If the World Slips Into Recession
This is where the setup gets uncomfortable. In a real risk off move, the yen doesn’t stay a funding currency, it often flips into a safe haven. When that happens, carry trades don’t unwind slowly; they snap. The BoJ might pause later if growth cracks, but the bigger change doesn’t go away…Japan is no longer a permanent zero rate anchor, and global leverage has to adjust to that reality.
What I’m Watching
I’m less focused on the first reaction and more on the follow through. Does USDJPY keep drifting, or does it start to move with volatility? Do hedging costs and cross currency basis tighten? How do JGB 10s and 30s behave, and does the government quietly adjust issuance to calm the long end? And most importantly, do credit spreads start to widen as rates stay sticky while growth fades?
That’s where you find out whether this was just a symbolic step or the beginning of a real shift in the global funding backdrop.
JUST IN 🚨: Bank of Japan hikes rate to highest level in 30 years 📈🤯 tweet
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App Economy Insights
$MU Micron is officially sold out.
It’s the "most significant disconnect between supply and demand" in 25 years.
• HBM sold out for 2026
• Rationing for key customers
• Guidance shattered by $4B+
Full breakdown & what comes next:
https://t.co/IGuMhE7XYL
tweet
$MU Micron is officially sold out.
It’s the "most significant disconnect between supply and demand" in 25 years.
• HBM sold out for 2026
• Rationing for key customers
• Guidance shattered by $4B+
Full breakdown & what comes next:
https://t.co/IGuMhE7XYL
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money.
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$NKE is a textbook example of why you do not buy downtrends.
The narrative was “the brand will never die.”
Maybe it won’t. That does not mean the stock is a buy.
This stock is "an obvious buy" since more than a year ago. Things only got worse since.
You don’t know the future.
You don’t know if your thesis - which is only speculation, will be right.
You don’t know what can happen next.
So. You. Don't. Buy.
If $NKE is truly a turnaround story, it won’t happen in a day. It will take months, maybe years, to develop. Let the data confirm your thesis. Let price action confirm market appetite.
That's. When. You. Buy.
Until then, your bull case is just an opinion.
And opinions don’t make money.
tweet
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The Few Bets That Matter
$NBIS is the best AI infrastructure platform outside the hyperscalers. No debate here.
Best compute quality, best pricing, a frictionless environment and availability in every critical geography.
On acquisition... Dan should listen more to management interviews. This is a team driven by conviction and ambition. They are not here to sell. They're here to compete.
Their benchmark isn’t $CRWV. It’s $MSFT and $GOOG.
They’re building to become the new compute standard.
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$NBIS is the best AI infrastructure platform outside the hyperscalers. No debate here.
Best compute quality, best pricing, a frictionless environment and availability in every critical geography.
On acquisition... Dan should listen more to management interviews. This is a team driven by conviction and ambition. They are not here to sell. They're here to compete.
Their benchmark isn’t $CRWV. It’s $MSFT and $GOOG.
They’re building to become the new compute standard.
Top 10 Tech Predictions for 2026 🍿🐂🏆🔥👇📱 https://t.co/ckEEJCyUuT tweet
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Fiscal.ai
RT @StockMKTNewz: Here's how much revenue Nike $NKE has brought in every quarter over the last decade
Q3 2015: $7.7B
Q3 2025: $12.4B https://t.co/NDlxV7SY6Y
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RT @StockMKTNewz: Here's how much revenue Nike $NKE has brought in every quarter over the last decade
Q3 2015: $7.7B
Q3 2025: $12.4B https://t.co/NDlxV7SY6Y
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