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What @elonmusk is pointing at is the slow math of demographics finally showing up in everyday life. Japan didn’t collapse overnight; it aged. Fewer kids, more elderly, and over time the economy quietly reorganized around care, automation, and maintenance instead of growth. That’s why his diaper example matters. It’s crude, but it’s a clean signal of where a society’s spending and labor are going. Japan crossed the point where adult diapers outsell baby diapers years ago, and that was the inevitable result of decades of low birth rates.
The U.S. isn’t Japan, but it’s earlier in the same process. Right now we’re still around 2 baby diapers for every 1 adult diaper, but adult diaper demand is growing roughly 9% a year, and projections show it overtaking baby diapers by around 2034. Immigration buys time and keeps the population from outright shrinking, but the Boomer wave is real. Labor gets scarcer in jobs you can’t automate, healthcare and housing costs rise, and growth slows not because of a crisis, but because the economy is running with fewer workers relative to dependents. Japan is the warning label, not the panic button and the U.S. is already on the same road, just a few exits back.
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What @elonmusk is pointing at is the slow math of demographics finally showing up in everyday life. Japan didn’t collapse overnight; it aged. Fewer kids, more elderly, and over time the economy quietly reorganized around care, automation, and maintenance instead of growth. That’s why his diaper example matters. It’s crude, but it’s a clean signal of where a society’s spending and labor are going. Japan crossed the point where adult diapers outsell baby diapers years ago, and that was the inevitable result of decades of low birth rates.
The U.S. isn’t Japan, but it’s earlier in the same process. Right now we’re still around 2 baby diapers for every 1 adult diaper, but adult diaper demand is growing roughly 9% a year, and projections show it overtaking baby diapers by around 2034. Immigration buys time and keeps the population from outright shrinking, but the Boomer wave is real. Labor gets scarcer in jobs you can’t automate, healthcare and housing costs rise, and growth slows not because of a crisis, but because the economy is running with fewer workers relative to dependents. Japan is the warning label, not the panic button and the U.S. is already on the same road, just a few exits back.
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when you wake up from a dream that was better than your actual life https://t.co/tsh8ifU2lU
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when you wake up from a dream that was better than your actual life https://t.co/tsh8ifU2lU
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Me in 2011 instead of buying bitcoin https://t.co/a0wiMehjWh
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Me in 2011 instead of buying bitcoin https://t.co/a0wiMehjWh
2011 regrets.. nice shirt tho 🙄 https://t.co/8WLWzAeN3L tweet
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never lose faith crypto guys, may be the women of your life is not born yet https://t.co/MZVVmnmHUR
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never lose faith crypto guys, may be the women of your life is not born yet https://t.co/MZVVmnmHUR
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Motivational speakers: “There's a tiger in you”
Meanwhile the tiger in me: https://t.co/Gpgx2KJ6if
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Motivational speakers: “There's a tiger in you”
Meanwhile the tiger in me: https://t.co/Gpgx2KJ6if
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EndGame Macro
When Calm Gets Crowded And Why the VIX Stops Falling Here
When people say the VIX is at its natural floor, they don’t mean nothing bad can happen. They mean volatility is already priced as cheap as it tends to get when markets feel comfortable. At around 15, you’re not paying much for protection anymore and historically, that’s where it stops getting meaningfully cheaper. You’re not being rewarded for assuming things will stay perfectly calm.
Why betting on even lower gets risky
When volatility is this low, the trade becomes lopsided. You might squeeze out a little more by betting it goes lower, but the downside is sharp if anything changes. A surprise in data, policy, earnings, or geopolitics doesn’t need to be dramatic, it just needs to break the rhythm. And when everyone’s relaxed at the same time, the snapback is fast.
That’s why the seasonality chart matters. Early in the year, especially into February and March, volatility has a habit of waking up. Not because of some curse, but because positioning resets, new risks surface, and complacency gets tested once markets are fully leaned in.
The real takeaway
This is a reminder about asymmetry. When the VIX is already low, calm is fully priced in, and protection is cheap for a reason. You don’t need a crash for volatility to rise you just need the market to stop being perfectly smooth. That’s usually when people realize they should’ve kept the insurance.
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When Calm Gets Crowded And Why the VIX Stops Falling Here
When people say the VIX is at its natural floor, they don’t mean nothing bad can happen. They mean volatility is already priced as cheap as it tends to get when markets feel comfortable. At around 15, you’re not paying much for protection anymore and historically, that’s where it stops getting meaningfully cheaper. You’re not being rewarded for assuming things will stay perfectly calm.
Why betting on even lower gets risky
When volatility is this low, the trade becomes lopsided. You might squeeze out a little more by betting it goes lower, but the downside is sharp if anything changes. A surprise in data, policy, earnings, or geopolitics doesn’t need to be dramatic, it just needs to break the rhythm. And when everyone’s relaxed at the same time, the snapback is fast.
That’s why the seasonality chart matters. Early in the year, especially into February and March, volatility has a habit of waking up. Not because of some curse, but because positioning resets, new risks surface, and complacency gets tested once markets are fully leaned in.
The real takeaway
This is a reminder about asymmetry. When the VIX is already low, calm is fully priced in, and protection is cheap for a reason. You don’t need a crash for volatility to rise you just need the market to stop being perfectly smooth. That’s usually when people realize they should’ve kept the insurance.
VIX is at its natural floor. Betting on lower from here is naïve.
https://t.co/aotfawCZCt https://t.co/ouBMFyZTbQ tweet