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Fiscal.ai
"Revenue of $18 billion grew 28% Y/Y, driven primarily by AI semiconductor revenue increasing 74% year-over-year."
$AVGO: +3.2% after hours https://t.co/ZPR0N2rTDb
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"Revenue of $18 billion grew 28% Y/Y, driven primarily by AI semiconductor revenue increasing 74% year-over-year."
$AVGO: +3.2% after hours https://t.co/ZPR0N2rTDb
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App Economy Insights
$COST Costco Q1 FY26 (Nov. quarter).
• Revenue +8% Y/Y to $67.3B ($0.2B beat).
• EPS $4.50 ($0.22 beat).
• 923 warehouses (+26 Y/Y, +9 Q/Q).
Comparable sales Y/Y (adjusted):
• US +5.9%.
• Company +6.4%.
• Digitally-enabled +20.5%. https://t.co/D1K23HJK3c
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$COST Costco Q1 FY26 (Nov. quarter).
• Revenue +8% Y/Y to $67.3B ($0.2B beat).
• EPS $4.50 ($0.22 beat).
• 923 warehouses (+26 Y/Y, +9 Q/Q).
Comparable sales Y/Y (adjusted):
• US +5.9%.
• Company +6.4%.
• Digitally-enabled +20.5%. https://t.co/D1K23HJK3c
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The Few Bets That Matter
What if $ORCL RPOs actually came through?
What if OpenAI really could pay for its commitments?
The consensus right now is that OpenAI can’t generate enough demand to support its scale. Many assume failure by default.
But that view is built entirely on speculation. No data.
Meanwhile, RPOs ramp across every compute provider, pointing to real & broad-based demand, not just from OpenAI, but from enterprises everywhere.
$PLTR is a perfect example: AI services across every sector… and all of it requires compute.
For weeks the bear case has been treated as the default narrative. It doesn't mean we should buy everything, some names are stretched, but the market has already corrected a lot. And the negative data people keep expecting still isn’t showing up.
The whole trade looks very different if the bull case is even partially true.
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What if $ORCL RPOs actually came through?
What if OpenAI really could pay for its commitments?
The consensus right now is that OpenAI can’t generate enough demand to support its scale. Many assume failure by default.
But that view is built entirely on speculation. No data.
Meanwhile, RPOs ramp across every compute provider, pointing to real & broad-based demand, not just from OpenAI, but from enterprises everywhere.
$PLTR is a perfect example: AI services across every sector… and all of it requires compute.
For weeks the bear case has been treated as the default narrative. It doesn't mean we should buy everything, some names are stretched, but the market has already corrected a lot. And the negative data people keep expecting still isn’t showing up.
The whole trade looks very different if the bull case is even partially true.
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
If “I had a dream” was ever a thesis 😅😂
Pretty incredible how the subconscious pulls ideas together. Not a decision making tool, but every now & then, intuition can surface in unexpected ways +
$V $MA https://t.co/ckWy1lNFp6
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If “I had a dream” was ever a thesis 😅😂
Pretty incredible how the subconscious pulls ideas together. Not a decision making tool, but every now & then, intuition can surface in unexpected ways +
$V $MA https://t.co/ckWy1lNFp6
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
Lululemon’s Bounce Looks Real But The Internals Are More Complicated
On the surface, this was a solid quarter. Revenue was up 7% to $2.6B and EPS came in at $2.59, which was enough to clear the bar the market had set. That’s why the stock gapped. Expectations were low, and LULU delivered something that looked reassuring.
But once you slow down and look under the hood, the health of the business is more uneven than the price action suggests.
Growth is leaning hard on one engine
The biggest contradiction is where the growth is actually coming from. The Americas were down…revenue fell 2% and comparable sales dropped 5%. Meanwhile, international revenue jumped 33%, with China up 46% year over year.
So total comps were technically positive at +1%, but that’s really international strength offsetting a soft U.S. consumer. That’s not a problem yet but it’s a very different story than broad based demand.
Management even admits this implicitly, talking about an ongoing action plan for the U.S. that won’t really show results until 2026. That’s corporate speak for this part of the business still isn’t fixed.
Margins and inventory are quietly flashing yellow
If demand were truly strong across the board, margins usually don’t move the way they did here. Gross margin fell 290 basis points to 55.6%, and operating margin dropped 350 bps to 17%. Operating income was down 11%, and net income fell year over year as well.
At the same time, inventory rose 11% to $2.0B (units up 4%). That’s not alarming on its own, but in retail it often shows up right before heavier promotions or margin pressure. Add in management’s guidance that tariffs could hit operating income by $210M, and the margin story gets harder, not easier.
Why the buyback really matters
The $1B increase in buyback authorization is the part everyone cheered and it does signal confidence. But it also serves a very practical purpose. Buybacks help stabilize EPS when margins are compressing and growth is uneven. They shrink the share count, smooth the optics, and give the stock support during a messy transition.
And this is a transition because the CEO is stepping down, interim leadership is in place, and the company is trying to rebalance a slowing U.S. business while riding international momentum.
The honest takeaway
This wasn’t a new bull case quarter. It was a better than feared quarter. The brand is still strong, international demand is doing real work, and the balance sheet gives them flexibility. But the internals say management is in manage through mode, not growth at all costs mode.
The stock moved because the market had gotten too pessimistic. The buyback is there to buy time and to fix the U.S., absorb cost pressures, and navigate leadership change.
tweet
Lululemon’s Bounce Looks Real But The Internals Are More Complicated
On the surface, this was a solid quarter. Revenue was up 7% to $2.6B and EPS came in at $2.59, which was enough to clear the bar the market had set. That’s why the stock gapped. Expectations were low, and LULU delivered something that looked reassuring.
But once you slow down and look under the hood, the health of the business is more uneven than the price action suggests.
Growth is leaning hard on one engine
The biggest contradiction is where the growth is actually coming from. The Americas were down…revenue fell 2% and comparable sales dropped 5%. Meanwhile, international revenue jumped 33%, with China up 46% year over year.
So total comps were technically positive at +1%, but that’s really international strength offsetting a soft U.S. consumer. That’s not a problem yet but it’s a very different story than broad based demand.
Management even admits this implicitly, talking about an ongoing action plan for the U.S. that won’t really show results until 2026. That’s corporate speak for this part of the business still isn’t fixed.
Margins and inventory are quietly flashing yellow
If demand were truly strong across the board, margins usually don’t move the way they did here. Gross margin fell 290 basis points to 55.6%, and operating margin dropped 350 bps to 17%. Operating income was down 11%, and net income fell year over year as well.
At the same time, inventory rose 11% to $2.0B (units up 4%). That’s not alarming on its own, but in retail it often shows up right before heavier promotions or margin pressure. Add in management’s guidance that tariffs could hit operating income by $210M, and the margin story gets harder, not easier.
Why the buyback really matters
The $1B increase in buyback authorization is the part everyone cheered and it does signal confidence. But it also serves a very practical purpose. Buybacks help stabilize EPS when margins are compressing and growth is uneven. They shrink the share count, smooth the optics, and give the stock support during a messy transition.
And this is a transition because the CEO is stepping down, interim leadership is in place, and the company is trying to rebalance a slowing U.S. business while riding international momentum.
The honest takeaway
This wasn’t a new bull case quarter. It was a better than feared quarter. The brand is still strong, international demand is doing real work, and the balance sheet gives them flexibility. But the internals say management is in manage through mode, not growth at all costs mode.
The stock moved because the market had gotten too pessimistic. The buyback is there to buy time and to fix the U.S., absorb cost pressures, and navigate leadership change.
Holy Lululemon $LULU 🚨 Back from the dead 📈🚀 https://t.co/ojB9Wi5aC2 tweet
Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
Lululemon Q3 Revenue Growth by Region:
United States: -3%
China: +42%
Canada: -1%
Mexico: +95%
Other: +20%
$LULU https://t.co/UKAmHMVRd3
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Lululemon Q3 Revenue Growth by Region:
United States: -3%
China: +42%
Canada: -1%
Mexico: +95%
Other: +20%
$LULU https://t.co/UKAmHMVRd3
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Offshore
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Fiscal.ai
"China Mainland revenue increased 46%, or 47% in constant currency, with comparable sales increasing 25%."
Lululemon is seeing major adoption in China.
The region now accounts for 20% of overall sales.
$LULU https://t.co/0KfW68eR0F
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"China Mainland revenue increased 46%, or 47% in constant currency, with comparable sales increasing 25%."
Lululemon is seeing major adoption in China.
The region now accounts for 20% of overall sales.
$LULU https://t.co/0KfW68eR0F
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
The Post Pandemic Pay Boom Is Fading…Starting at the Bottom
This chart is showing how wage growth has cooled, and who’s feeling it most. Coming out of the pandemic, lower wage workers saw huge raises because employers were desperate to hire. If you were in a service job or anything frontline, switching jobs was the fastest way to get paid more, and companies were forced to keep up. That’s why the blue line shot higher than anything we’d seen in years.
Now that dynamic is fading. Hiring has slowed, job openings are down, and employers don’t have to bid against each other the same way. When that happens, wage growth at the bottom cools first and it cools fast. That’s what you’re seeing as the blue line drops back toward more normal levels.
Why higher earners are holding up better
Higher earners live in a different pay world. Their raises are usually planned, contractual, or tied to retention rather than constant job switching. Companies may slow hiring, but they’re still reluctant to lose experienced talent, so pay at the top tends to drift down more slowly. That’s why the red line doesn’t fall off a cliff the way the blue one does.
This isn’t about the top suddenly winning again. It’s about the bottom losing the unusual leverage it briefly had.
The bigger takeaway
Wages are still rising, but the power balance in the labor market is changing. The era where low wage workers could reliably leapfrog pay by hopping jobs is ending. That’s disinflationary, which policymakers like but it also means the consumer becomes more fragile, because lower earners spend most of what they make.
So this chart isn’t saying the labor market is broken. It’s saying the post pandemic anomaly is over, and we’re sliding back toward a slower, more employer friendly phase of the cycle.
tweet
The Post Pandemic Pay Boom Is Fading…Starting at the Bottom
This chart is showing how wage growth has cooled, and who’s feeling it most. Coming out of the pandemic, lower wage workers saw huge raises because employers were desperate to hire. If you were in a service job or anything frontline, switching jobs was the fastest way to get paid more, and companies were forced to keep up. That’s why the blue line shot higher than anything we’d seen in years.
Now that dynamic is fading. Hiring has slowed, job openings are down, and employers don’t have to bid against each other the same way. When that happens, wage growth at the bottom cools first and it cools fast. That’s what you’re seeing as the blue line drops back toward more normal levels.
Why higher earners are holding up better
Higher earners live in a different pay world. Their raises are usually planned, contractual, or tied to retention rather than constant job switching. Companies may slow hiring, but they’re still reluctant to lose experienced talent, so pay at the top tends to drift down more slowly. That’s why the red line doesn’t fall off a cliff the way the blue one does.
This isn’t about the top suddenly winning again. It’s about the bottom losing the unusual leverage it briefly had.
The bigger takeaway
Wages are still rising, but the power balance in the labor market is changing. The era where low wage workers could reliably leapfrog pay by hopping jobs is ending. That’s disinflationary, which policymakers like but it also means the consumer becomes more fragile, because lower earners spend most of what they make.
So this chart isn’t saying the labor market is broken. It’s saying the post pandemic anomaly is over, and we’re sliding back toward a slower, more employer friendly phase of the cycle.
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Offshore
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EndGame Macro
SOFR Is Falling Because the Fed Is Quietly Opening the Liquidity Valves
At its core, SOFR is the price of overnight money when it’s backed by Treasuries. If you want to borrow cash for a day and you post safe collateral, SOFR is the rate you pay. That’s why it replaced LIBOR, it’s based on actual transactions, not guesses, and it lives right in the middle of the financial plumbing.
So when SOFR moves, it’s not about vibes or forecasts. It’s a live read on whether cash is easy or tight right now and how hard the pipes are being pressurized.
Why this drop matters
Seeing SOFR down around 3.9% isn’t random. It tells you overnight funding has gotten easier. Banks, funds, and dealers aren’t scrambling for cash the way they were earlier in the cycle. Liquidity is available enough that money trades cheaply without stress leaking into rates.
That kind of move usually happens for one of two reasons…either the Fed is actively easing, or the system is being positioned so easing doesn’t cause a problem. Right now, it’s clearly the second and quietly sliding into the first.
What’s driving it under the hood
Part of this is policy gravity. As the Fed cuts rates and signals it’s done tightening, the front end of the curve naturally drifts lower. SOFR doesn’t resist that, it follows it.
But the more important piece is direct plumbing support. The Fed has started reserve management purchases with roughly $40B in Treasury bills explicitly to keep reserve levels ample. That cash ends up in the banking system, and when reserves rise, overnight funding pressure falls. SOFR reflects that immediately.
On top of that, the Fed removed the aggregate cap on the Standing Overnight Repo Facility, moving it to full allotment. That means any eligible counterparty with Treasuries can get cash overnight without worrying about hitting a limit. When that backstop is unlimited, there’s no reason for repo rates or SOFR to trade with a stress premium.
Then there’s collateral demand. Treasuries are increasingly valuable not just as investments, but as balance sheet grease. Between reserve purchases, reinvestments, and an open repo window, the system is being flooded with both cash and usable collateral. When that happens, lenders are willing to accept a lower rate to stay deployed.
The bigger message
SOFR falling like this isn’t saying everything is great. It’s saying the Fed is making sure overnight funding stays calm as growth slows and risks move from inflation to demand, jobs, and stability.
In plain terms the plumbing is loosening on purpose. Not because we’re entering a boom, but because the cycle is turning and the Fed is making sure the system doesn’t crack while it does.
tweet
SOFR Is Falling Because the Fed Is Quietly Opening the Liquidity Valves
At its core, SOFR is the price of overnight money when it’s backed by Treasuries. If you want to borrow cash for a day and you post safe collateral, SOFR is the rate you pay. That’s why it replaced LIBOR, it’s based on actual transactions, not guesses, and it lives right in the middle of the financial plumbing.
So when SOFR moves, it’s not about vibes or forecasts. It’s a live read on whether cash is easy or tight right now and how hard the pipes are being pressurized.
Why this drop matters
Seeing SOFR down around 3.9% isn’t random. It tells you overnight funding has gotten easier. Banks, funds, and dealers aren’t scrambling for cash the way they were earlier in the cycle. Liquidity is available enough that money trades cheaply without stress leaking into rates.
That kind of move usually happens for one of two reasons…either the Fed is actively easing, or the system is being positioned so easing doesn’t cause a problem. Right now, it’s clearly the second and quietly sliding into the first.
What’s driving it under the hood
Part of this is policy gravity. As the Fed cuts rates and signals it’s done tightening, the front end of the curve naturally drifts lower. SOFR doesn’t resist that, it follows it.
But the more important piece is direct plumbing support. The Fed has started reserve management purchases with roughly $40B in Treasury bills explicitly to keep reserve levels ample. That cash ends up in the banking system, and when reserves rise, overnight funding pressure falls. SOFR reflects that immediately.
On top of that, the Fed removed the aggregate cap on the Standing Overnight Repo Facility, moving it to full allotment. That means any eligible counterparty with Treasuries can get cash overnight without worrying about hitting a limit. When that backstop is unlimited, there’s no reason for repo rates or SOFR to trade with a stress premium.
Then there’s collateral demand. Treasuries are increasingly valuable not just as investments, but as balance sheet grease. Between reserve purchases, reinvestments, and an open repo window, the system is being flooded with both cash and usable collateral. When that happens, lenders are willing to accept a lower rate to stay deployed.
The bigger message
SOFR falling like this isn’t saying everything is great. It’s saying the Fed is making sure overnight funding stays calm as growth slows and risks move from inflation to demand, jobs, and stability.
In plain terms the plumbing is loosening on purpose. Not because we’re entering a boom, but because the cycle is turning and the Fed is making sure the system doesn’t crack while it does.
Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) falls to 3.9%, its lowest level in 3 years 📉📉 https://t.co/NyfSspcXJu tweet
Quiver Quantitative
Momentum is building on the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
On Monday, it was at 16 signatures.
On Tuesday, it was at 23 signatures.
On Wednesday, it was at 41 signatures.
Today, it is up to 59 signatures.
218 signatures are needed.
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Momentum is building on the discharge petition to force a vote on a congressional stock trading ban.
On Monday, it was at 16 signatures.
On Tuesday, it was at 23 signatures.
On Wednesday, it was at 41 signatures.
Today, it is up to 59 signatures.
218 signatures are needed.
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