WealthyReadings
Was discussing with a colleague who told me she refuses to use $UBER.
Because it's "exploitation".
How hard is it to understand that without $UBER, thousands of immigrants wouldn't have a job?
She fights for those immigrants to have the right to come. But refuses to use the service which gives them the opportunity to have a better life.
Because it isn't "moral".
How can someone be that limited, contradictory? How is it possible not to understand such a simple situation?
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Was discussing with a colleague who told me she refuses to use $UBER.
Because it's "exploitation".
How hard is it to understand that without $UBER, thousands of immigrants wouldn't have a job?
She fights for those immigrants to have the right to come. But refuses to use the service which gives them the opportunity to have a better life.
Because it isn't "moral".
How can someone be that limited, contradictory? How is it possible not to understand such a simple situation?
tweet
Offshore
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EndGame Macro
JOLTS Didn’t Flash Red But It Whispered Trouble.
If you only look at the headlines…job openings flat, hires little changed, separations steady you’d think nothing important is happening. But when you dig into the details, especially knowing the data collection was disrupted by the shutdown, the picture shifts. What looks calm on the surface feels more like a labor market slowly exhaling after two years of running hot. And that kind of softening usually happens before the downturn becomes visible.
Job Openings Are Calm on Top But Cooling Underneath
Openings holding at 7.7 million sounds steady, but steady isn’t strength…steady is stalling. We’ve dropped from the 2021–22 frenzy of 10–12 million openings and have now flattened into a range that doesn’t move much. That plateau alone is a sign of cooling demand. And the sector level data matters because the financial activities and information, two forward looking parts of the economy both saw meaningful declines.
The Hiring Slowdown Is the Real Tell
Hires dipped again, down to 5.1 million, and the hiring rate slipped to 3.2%. That’s one of the softest prints since before COVID. This is how labor markets turn in real time because companies don’t start with layoffs; they start by pulling back on hiring. Small businesses, which usually sense stress first, barely hired at all in October. When hiring cools at the edges, it’s usually because firms are feeling the slowdown internally long before it appears in the big aggregate numbers.
Fewer Quits Equals Fading Confidence
Quits are down to 2.9 million, a full 276,000 lower than last year. And quits are as close as we get to a confidence gauge. People quit when they feel secure. They stay when they’re unsure. The drop across healthcare, food services, and government isn’t a sign of contentment; it’s a sign people sense fewer safe opportunities outside their current job. That’s an emotional shift, not just a statistical one.
Layoffs Aren’t Exploding They’re Creeping In
Layoffs stayed at 1.9 million, but the details matter…accommodation and food services saw a sharp jump, and some government categories did too. That’s how downturns begin, not with a tidal wave of layoffs, but with small cracks in sensitive sectors. The rest follows only if the pressure builds.
A Data Fog That Hints at More Beneath the Surface
Because September’s release was canceled and October’s alignment methodology was suspended, the numbers have more noise than usual. Whenever the measurement gets fuzzy, the underlying shift is usually larger than the reported one. Smooth data in a choppy environment is rarely a sign of actual stability.
The Real Signal Beneath the Calm
Here’s what the report is actually telling you…
• Openings are flat because demand is softening.
• Hiring is slowing because businesses are getting cautious.
• Quits are falling because workers feel less secure.
• Layoffs are starting where they always start, in the sectors closest to the consumer.
That’s a labor market giving up altitude quietly and slowly.
Pair that with rising delinquencies, record high bankruptcies, over a million layoffs announced this year, and weakening consumer sentiment, and the soft landing story starts feeling more like wishful thinking than a durable trend.
My Read
The economy is drifting into a cooler, more fragile phase. JOLTS is often the first place you can see that shift because it captures employer behavior before payrolls show anything. And right now, employers are acting like the turn has already begun.
The slope isn’t steep yet but it’s no longer flat.
tweet
JOLTS Didn’t Flash Red But It Whispered Trouble.
If you only look at the headlines…job openings flat, hires little changed, separations steady you’d think nothing important is happening. But when you dig into the details, especially knowing the data collection was disrupted by the shutdown, the picture shifts. What looks calm on the surface feels more like a labor market slowly exhaling after two years of running hot. And that kind of softening usually happens before the downturn becomes visible.
Job Openings Are Calm on Top But Cooling Underneath
Openings holding at 7.7 million sounds steady, but steady isn’t strength…steady is stalling. We’ve dropped from the 2021–22 frenzy of 10–12 million openings and have now flattened into a range that doesn’t move much. That plateau alone is a sign of cooling demand. And the sector level data matters because the financial activities and information, two forward looking parts of the economy both saw meaningful declines.
The Hiring Slowdown Is the Real Tell
Hires dipped again, down to 5.1 million, and the hiring rate slipped to 3.2%. That’s one of the softest prints since before COVID. This is how labor markets turn in real time because companies don’t start with layoffs; they start by pulling back on hiring. Small businesses, which usually sense stress first, barely hired at all in October. When hiring cools at the edges, it’s usually because firms are feeling the slowdown internally long before it appears in the big aggregate numbers.
Fewer Quits Equals Fading Confidence
Quits are down to 2.9 million, a full 276,000 lower than last year. And quits are as close as we get to a confidence gauge. People quit when they feel secure. They stay when they’re unsure. The drop across healthcare, food services, and government isn’t a sign of contentment; it’s a sign people sense fewer safe opportunities outside their current job. That’s an emotional shift, not just a statistical one.
Layoffs Aren’t Exploding They’re Creeping In
Layoffs stayed at 1.9 million, but the details matter…accommodation and food services saw a sharp jump, and some government categories did too. That’s how downturns begin, not with a tidal wave of layoffs, but with small cracks in sensitive sectors. The rest follows only if the pressure builds.
A Data Fog That Hints at More Beneath the Surface
Because September’s release was canceled and October’s alignment methodology was suspended, the numbers have more noise than usual. Whenever the measurement gets fuzzy, the underlying shift is usually larger than the reported one. Smooth data in a choppy environment is rarely a sign of actual stability.
The Real Signal Beneath the Calm
Here’s what the report is actually telling you…
• Openings are flat because demand is softening.
• Hiring is slowing because businesses are getting cautious.
• Quits are falling because workers feel less secure.
• Layoffs are starting where they always start, in the sectors closest to the consumer.
That’s a labor market giving up altitude quietly and slowly.
Pair that with rising delinquencies, record high bankruptcies, over a million layoffs announced this year, and weakening consumer sentiment, and the soft landing story starts feeling more like wishful thinking than a durable trend.
My Read
The economy is drifting into a cooler, more fragile phase. JOLTS is often the first place you can see that shift because it captures employer behavior before payrolls show anything. And right now, employers are acting like the turn has already begun.
The slope isn’t steep yet but it’s no longer flat.
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Offshore
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memenodes
When you realize no matter how much muscle you gain you will always be as weak as the day you got liquidated https://t.co/09Fi8pqpOo
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When you realize no matter how much muscle you gain you will always be as weak as the day you got liquidated https://t.co/09Fi8pqpOo
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Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
BREAKING: Senator Josh Hawley has called out Senate leadership for not holding a vote on a bill to allow parents to sue big tech companies. https://t.co/zVyOtrzQy8
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BREAKING: Senator Josh Hawley has called out Senate leadership for not holding a vote on a bill to allow parents to sue big tech companies. https://t.co/zVyOtrzQy8
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Offshore
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Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
In contrast to ChatGPT themselves just YESTERDAY telling us it was "more than 800 million" 😂
https://t.co/90DaPLJZ2x
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In contrast to ChatGPT themselves just YESTERDAY telling us it was "more than 800 million" 😂
https://t.co/90DaPLJZ2x
CHATGPT HAS NEARLY 900 MILLION WEEKLY ACTIVE USERS - THE INFORMATION https://t.co/iE31jgkiEC tweet