Wall St Engine
Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/13/2025
05:00: Trump at Saudi State Visit
06:00: US NFIB Business Optimism Index x
08:30: US CPI
08:55: US Redbook YoY
Before Open 👇
04:30: $JD
05:00: On Holding AG $ONON
05:00: Tencent Music Entertainment Group $TME
06:30: Sea Limited $SE
06:55: Under Armour $UAA
07:00: CyberArk $CYBR
07:25: Honda Motor Co $HMC
07:05: Silicon Laboratories $SLAB
07:10: Camtek Ltd. $CAMT
07:30: Legend Biotech Corporation $LEGN
07:30: Landstar System, Inc. $LSTR
After Hours 👇
16:00: Gevo Inc $GEVO
16:00: Vaxart, Inc. $VXRT
16:00: Exelixis, Inc. $EXEL
16:05: Oklo Inc. $OKLO
16:05: GRAIL Inc. $GRAL
16:05: CAE Inc. $CAE
16:15: Nu Holdings Ltd. $NU
16:15: Evolution Petroleum Corp. $EPM
16:15: KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. $KLC
18:15: Danaos Corp. $DAC
19:00: Karman Space & Defense $KRMN
20:35: Smart Sand, Inc. $SND
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Today's Key Events (All EST) — 05/13/2025
05:00: Trump at Saudi State Visit
06:00: US NFIB Business Optimism Index x
08:30: US CPI
08:55: US Redbook YoY
Before Open 👇
04:30: $JD
05:00: On Holding AG $ONON
05:00: Tencent Music Entertainment Group $TME
06:30: Sea Limited $SE
06:55: Under Armour $UAA
07:00: CyberArk $CYBR
07:25: Honda Motor Co $HMC
07:05: Silicon Laboratories $SLAB
07:10: Camtek Ltd. $CAMT
07:30: Legend Biotech Corporation $LEGN
07:30: Landstar System, Inc. $LSTR
After Hours 👇
16:00: Gevo Inc $GEVO
16:00: Vaxart, Inc. $VXRT
16:00: Exelixis, Inc. $EXEL
16:05: Oklo Inc. $OKLO
16:05: GRAIL Inc. $GRAL
16:05: CAE Inc. $CAE
16:15: Nu Holdings Ltd. $NU
16:15: Evolution Petroleum Corp. $EPM
16:15: KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. $KLC
18:15: Danaos Corp. $DAC
19:00: Karman Space & Defense $KRMN
20:35: Smart Sand, Inc. $SND
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
SOFTBANK VISION FUND POSTS FY LOSS
SoftBank’s Vision Fund swung to a ¥115B ($778M) pretax loss for the fiscal year ended March, reversing a ¥128B profit a year earlier. Gains from Didi and Coupang were offset by sharp markdowns in names like AutoStore, and overall investment gains dropped 40% Y/Y.
SoftBank remains deep in the AI race — backing OpenAI with $30B and committing to acquire Ampere for $6.5B. It’s also a partner in Trump’s Stargate AI infra push. Still, SoftBank shares are down 17% YTD.
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SOFTBANK VISION FUND POSTS FY LOSS
SoftBank’s Vision Fund swung to a ¥115B ($778M) pretax loss for the fiscal year ended March, reversing a ¥128B profit a year earlier. Gains from Didi and Coupang were offset by sharp markdowns in names like AutoStore, and overall investment gains dropped 40% Y/Y.
SoftBank remains deep in the AI race — backing OpenAI with $30B and committing to acquire Ampere for $6.5B. It’s also a partner in Trump’s Stargate AI infra push. Still, SoftBank shares are down 17% YTD.
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
Pres. Trump has officially landed in Saudi Arabia for his 1st overseas trip this term. He was welcomed in Riyadh by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He is expected to push for investment deals, w/ regional geopolitics & economic ties also on the agenda.
https://t.co/qUJZcBCQbQ
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Pres. Trump has officially landed in Saudi Arabia for his 1st overseas trip this term. He was welcomed in Riyadh by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He is expected to push for investment deals, w/ regional geopolitics & economic ties also on the agenda.
https://t.co/qUJZcBCQbQ
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
CHINA REMOVES BAN ON BOEING $BA DELIVERIES AFTER US TRADE TRUCE https://t.co/Du2eFnvzcj
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CHINA REMOVES BAN ON BOEING $BA DELIVERIES AFTER US TRADE TRUCE https://t.co/Du2eFnvzcj
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Offshore
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Wall St Engine
ELON MUSK, SAM ALTMAN, JENSEN HUANG TO ATTEND LUNCH WITH TRUMP, MBS IN RIYADH https://t.co/qLDuGqKOH1
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ELON MUSK, SAM ALTMAN, JENSEN HUANG TO ATTEND LUNCH WITH TRUMP, MBS IN RIYADH https://t.co/qLDuGqKOH1
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Wall St Engine
Barclays Upgrades $SWK to Overweight from Equalweight, Raises PT to $90 from $69
Analyst comments: "We upgrade our rating on SWK to Overweight from Equalweight, alongside an increase in our EPS estimates, and our price target moves to $90. We highlight the following: 1. EPS 'worst case' looks to be off the table for now. Following the news that U.S.–China tariffs would be significantly lower than what was discussed in April, we have revised our EPS estimates to be closer to where they sat prior to April 2, i.e., nearer to $5 in 2025, which compares with the initial EPS guide of ~$5.25, and the recent post-April 2 framework scenario of ~$4.50. In 2026, we estimate EPS of $5.76 vs the Street at $5.64, based on organic sales growth of +4% and adjusted operating margin expansion of +100bps. As a reminder, SWK had screened as the most vulnerable within multi-industry to U.S.–China tariffs. Our revised estimates now embed 30% U.S. tariffs on China and 10% China tariffs on the U.S., down from 145% and 125% prior."
Analyst: Julian Mitchell
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Barclays Upgrades $SWK to Overweight from Equalweight, Raises PT to $90 from $69
Analyst comments: "We upgrade our rating on SWK to Overweight from Equalweight, alongside an increase in our EPS estimates, and our price target moves to $90. We highlight the following: 1. EPS 'worst case' looks to be off the table for now. Following the news that U.S.–China tariffs would be significantly lower than what was discussed in April, we have revised our EPS estimates to be closer to where they sat prior to April 2, i.e., nearer to $5 in 2025, which compares with the initial EPS guide of ~$5.25, and the recent post-April 2 framework scenario of ~$4.50. In 2026, we estimate EPS of $5.76 vs the Street at $5.64, based on organic sales growth of +4% and adjusted operating margin expansion of +100bps. As a reminder, SWK had screened as the most vulnerable within multi-industry to U.S.–China tariffs. Our revised estimates now embed 30% U.S. tariffs on China and 10% China tariffs on the U.S., down from 145% and 125% prior."
Analyst: Julian Mitchell
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Wall St Engine
Wolfe Research Upgrades $FSLR to Outperform from Peerperform, Sets PT at $221
Analyst comments: "We rate FSLR an Outperform as a direct way to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as well as anti-China sentiment. The proposed bill by the House Ways and Means Committee shortens the 45X runway by a year, but in our view, likely helps resolve any lingering investor concerns over election fears jeopardizing IRA tax credits. The fact that we're seeing Republican support and a tax bill reaffirming 45X likely suggests the credit is safe from repeal. Downside risks include warranty issues related to Series 7 panels, perceived disadvantages in thin film technology, new competition in the U.S. market that eventually drives down average selling prices, customer project delays or contract cancellation risk, and logistics or freight issues that can cause negative surprises."
Analyst: Steve Fleishman
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Wolfe Research Upgrades $FSLR to Outperform from Peerperform, Sets PT at $221
Analyst comments: "We rate FSLR an Outperform as a direct way to benefit from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) as well as anti-China sentiment. The proposed bill by the House Ways and Means Committee shortens the 45X runway by a year, but in our view, likely helps resolve any lingering investor concerns over election fears jeopardizing IRA tax credits. The fact that we're seeing Republican support and a tax bill reaffirming 45X likely suggests the credit is safe from repeal. Downside risks include warranty issues related to Series 7 panels, perceived disadvantages in thin film technology, new competition in the U.S. market that eventually drives down average selling prices, customer project delays or contract cancellation risk, and logistics or freight issues that can cause negative surprises."
Analyst: Steve Fleishman
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Wall St Engine
$JD.com Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: RMB301.1B (Est. RMB290.6B) 🟢; UP +15.8% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: RMB8.41 (Est. RMB7.09) 🟢; UP +48.8% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: RMB12.8B; UP +43.4% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: RMB10.5B; UP +36.8% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: RMB11.7B; UP +31.4% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP EBITDA: RMB13.7B; UP +27.0% YoY
🔹 Operating Ma
rgin: 3.5% (vs. 3.0% YoY)
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 3.9% (vs. 3.4% YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: RMB(21.6)B (vs. RMB(15.5)B YoY)
Segment Revenue
🔹 JD Retail: RMB263.8B; UP +16.3% YoY
🔹 JD Logistics: RMB47.0B; UP +11.5% YoY
🔹 New Businesses: RMB5.75B; UP +18.1% YoY
🔹 Net Product Revenue: RMB242.3B; UP +16.2% YoY
🔹 Net Service Revenue: RMB58.8B; UP +14.0% YoY
🔹 Electronics & Home Appliances: RMB144.3B; UP +17.1% YoY
🔹 General Merchandise: RMB98.0B; UP +14.9% YoY
🔹 Marketplace & Marketing Services: RMB22.3B; UP +15.7% YoY
🔹 Logistics & Other Services: RMB36.5B; UP +13.0% YoY
Operational Highlights
🔸 JD Retail: Strengthened partnerships with Xiaomi, Crocs, La Prairie; launched RMB200B export-to-domestic sales initiative
🔸 New Businesses: Launched JD Food Delivery in Feb 2025, leveraging logistics and retail integration
🔸 JD Health: Expanded pharma launches (Pfizer, Innogen); 80%+ consultations now AI-assisted
🔸 JD Logistics: Opened air route to Bangkok; second warehouse in Warsaw live; HK operations center launched in March
ESG & Shareholder Returns
🔸 Provided full social and housing benefits to full-time food delivery riders — first in China
🔸 JD Ecosystem headcount: ~700,000
🔸 Human resources spend: RMB128.8B over the last 12 months
🔸 Repurchased $1.5B in stock in Q1; $3.5B remaining in buyback authorization
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$JD.com Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: RMB301.1B (Est. RMB290.6B) 🟢; UP +15.8% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: RMB8.41 (Est. RMB7.09) 🟢; UP +48.8% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Net Income: RMB12.8B; UP +43.4% YoY
🔹 Operating Income: RMB10.5B; UP +36.8% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: RMB11.7B; UP +31.4% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP EBITDA: RMB13.7B; UP +27.0% YoY
🔹 Operating Ma
rgin: 3.5% (vs. 3.0% YoY)
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 3.9% (vs. 3.4% YoY)
🔹 Free Cash Flow: RMB(21.6)B (vs. RMB(15.5)B YoY)
Segment Revenue
🔹 JD Retail: RMB263.8B; UP +16.3% YoY
🔹 JD Logistics: RMB47.0B; UP +11.5% YoY
🔹 New Businesses: RMB5.75B; UP +18.1% YoY
🔹 Net Product Revenue: RMB242.3B; UP +16.2% YoY
🔹 Net Service Revenue: RMB58.8B; UP +14.0% YoY
🔹 Electronics & Home Appliances: RMB144.3B; UP +17.1% YoY
🔹 General Merchandise: RMB98.0B; UP +14.9% YoY
🔹 Marketplace & Marketing Services: RMB22.3B; UP +15.7% YoY
🔹 Logistics & Other Services: RMB36.5B; UP +13.0% YoY
Operational Highlights
🔸 JD Retail: Strengthened partnerships with Xiaomi, Crocs, La Prairie; launched RMB200B export-to-domestic sales initiative
🔸 New Businesses: Launched JD Food Delivery in Feb 2025, leveraging logistics and retail integration
🔸 JD Health: Expanded pharma launches (Pfizer, Innogen); 80%+ consultations now AI-assisted
🔸 JD Logistics: Opened air route to Bangkok; second warehouse in Warsaw live; HK operations center launched in March
ESG & Shareholder Returns
🔸 Provided full social and housing benefits to full-time food delivery riders — first in China
🔸 JD Ecosystem headcount: ~700,000
🔸 Human resources spend: RMB128.8B over the last 12 months
🔸 Repurchased $1.5B in stock in Q1; $3.5B remaining in buyback authorization
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Wall St Engine
JPMorgan Reiterates Overweight Rating on $NFLX, PT $1,150
Analyst Comments: "Netflix shares are +30% above post-tariff lows, significantly outperforming the SPX +15%, driven by NFLX’s defensive subscription nature & streaming leadership against macro and tariff uncertainty. We recognize some of that may reverse near-term as trade relief shifts investors more to tariff-impacted names that have lagged in recent weeks. More fundamentally, heading into Netflix’s Upfronts this week we expect the company to: 1) provide updated Ad Tier MAUs , which we believe will be 100M+; 2) announce further expansion of the Netflix Ads Suite across int’l markets (currently available in the US & Canada); & 3) highlight key Live/Sports content — WWE Raw (including int’l rights), Taylor vs. Serrano boxing rematch on 7/11, two Xmas Day NFL Games, & possibly more. We remain bullish on NFLX’s growing Ad Tier scale, & we project Ad Tier subs of 60M+ by the end of 2025, which ties to 140M+ MAUs assuming ~2.3x MAUs/subs. Now that NFLX has reached sufficient scale, the company is shifting its focus more to monetization, & we project Advertising revenue (ex-subscription) of $3.0B in 2025, more than doubling from $1.4B in 2024. Beyond Advertising, the 2025 content slate remains strong, w/key 2Q releases including Nonnas, Sirens, Big Mouth S8, Fear Street: Prom Queen, Ginny & Georgia S3, Tires S2, FUBAR S2, & Squid Game S3. Potential tariff implementation on films produced outside the US has been a growing topic, but implementation remains unclear & it is difficult to size potential financial impact. We note that NFLX produces original content across 50+ countries globally & 3P articles suggest that 50%+ of content is produced internationally. However, NFLX’s contributions to the US are significant with 9k+ full-time US employees, 2.2M square feet of corporate office space in the US, & 3.1M square feet of studio space across 60 US soundstages. We remain positive on NFLX shares & our bull thesis is supported by:1) healthy double-digit revenue growth in both ’25 & ’26; 2) continued operating margin expansion while increasing investments in content, ads, & gaming; 3) multi-year FCF ramp on improving profit & cash content discipline, with increasing buybacks; 4) NFLX’s strong streaming leadership position; & 5) potential to become global TV as NFLX expands its ~308M member base (700M+ global audience) across the 750M+ broadband HHs ex-Russia & China. We project average 2025 & 2026 growth of +13% for FXN revenue, +22% for operating income, +24% for GAAP EPS, & +30% for FCF, which we believe supports NFLX’s premium valuation. We remain Overweight, though we acknowledge shares are not far from our December 2025 PT of $1,150 which is based on ~38x 2026E GAAP EPS of $30.46 & equates to ~42x 2026E FCF of $11.7B."
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JPMorgan Reiterates Overweight Rating on $NFLX, PT $1,150
Analyst Comments: "Netflix shares are +30% above post-tariff lows, significantly outperforming the SPX +15%, driven by NFLX’s defensive subscription nature & streaming leadership against macro and tariff uncertainty. We recognize some of that may reverse near-term as trade relief shifts investors more to tariff-impacted names that have lagged in recent weeks. More fundamentally, heading into Netflix’s Upfronts this week we expect the company to: 1) provide updated Ad Tier MAUs , which we believe will be 100M+; 2) announce further expansion of the Netflix Ads Suite across int’l markets (currently available in the US & Canada); & 3) highlight key Live/Sports content — WWE Raw (including int’l rights), Taylor vs. Serrano boxing rematch on 7/11, two Xmas Day NFL Games, & possibly more. We remain bullish on NFLX’s growing Ad Tier scale, & we project Ad Tier subs of 60M+ by the end of 2025, which ties to 140M+ MAUs assuming ~2.3x MAUs/subs. Now that NFLX has reached sufficient scale, the company is shifting its focus more to monetization, & we project Advertising revenue (ex-subscription) of $3.0B in 2025, more than doubling from $1.4B in 2024. Beyond Advertising, the 2025 content slate remains strong, w/key 2Q releases including Nonnas, Sirens, Big Mouth S8, Fear Street: Prom Queen, Ginny & Georgia S3, Tires S2, FUBAR S2, & Squid Game S3. Potential tariff implementation on films produced outside the US has been a growing topic, but implementation remains unclear & it is difficult to size potential financial impact. We note that NFLX produces original content across 50+ countries globally & 3P articles suggest that 50%+ of content is produced internationally. However, NFLX’s contributions to the US are significant with 9k+ full-time US employees, 2.2M square feet of corporate office space in the US, & 3.1M square feet of studio space across 60 US soundstages. We remain positive on NFLX shares & our bull thesis is supported by:1) healthy double-digit revenue growth in both ’25 & ’26; 2) continued operating margin expansion while increasing investments in content, ads, & gaming; 3) multi-year FCF ramp on improving profit & cash content discipline, with increasing buybacks; 4) NFLX’s strong streaming leadership position; & 5) potential to become global TV as NFLX expands its ~308M member base (700M+ global audience) across the 750M+ broadband HHs ex-Russia & China. We project average 2025 & 2026 growth of +13% for FXN revenue, +22% for operating income, +24% for GAAP EPS, & +30% for FCF, which we believe supports NFLX’s premium valuation. We remain Overweight, though we acknowledge shares are not far from our December 2025 PT of $1,150 which is based on ~38x 2026E GAAP EPS of $30.46 & equates to ~42x 2026E FCF of $11.7B."
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