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Latest FDIC data shows banks sitting on nearly $500B in unrealized losses on securities. If stagflation sticks around—high rates, slowing growth—lenders to tech, growth, and VC could face mounting credit losses.
Source: Apollo, FDIC. https://t.co/dapR67A0Af
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Latest FDIC data shows banks sitting on nearly $500B in unrealized losses on securities. If stagflation sticks around—high rates, slowing growth—lenders to tech, growth, and VC could face mounting credit losses.
Source: Apollo, FDIC. https://t.co/dapR67A0Af
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Wall St Engine
Evercore ISI Reiterates Outperform Rating on $WMT, Maintains PT at $105
Analyst comments: "Walmart reports 1Q results before the market opens on Thursday, 5/15. We expect a 'meet and keep' print, with 1Q in line with widened expectations and effectively flat operating income on a 4% comp. With peak tariff uncertainty hopefully behind us, concerns that management could 'soften up' 2Q (Street at $0.70) to keep operating income growth below sales are receding. While 2H remains a significant unknown, Walmart has enough company-specific sales and profit drivers to maintain full-year EPS in the original $2.50–$2.60 range, assuming tariffs land at 35% incremental on China and 15% rest of world.
We are looking for comps slightly above consensus, with EPS mostly in line ($0.58 vs. $0.57). Intra-quarter data support a resilient consumer, with some temporary relief from deescalating China tariff tensions. Walmart appears poised for another quarter of solid results and commentary. Its April analyst day highlighted long-term business drivers including margin-accretive alternative profit streams, and management left full-year guidance unchanged, suggesting sustained momentum.
While Walmart is better positioned than most retailers due to share gains and supply chain strengths, it is not immune from tariffs, FX volatility, and a choppy lower-income consumer. Longer term, we are bullish on Walmart’s ability to drive sustainable traffic growth while expanding EBIT margin globally. Execution and innovation continue to impress, especially in automation, retail media, and digital business profitability.
Walmart remains a Fab Five preferred stock for its defensive growth profile, margin levers, and strong balance sheet/cash flow amid a volatile tariff backdrop. For 1Q, we model net sales up +3.4% and EPS of $0.58 (vs. Street at +2.6% and $0.57), with operating income growing 0.2% (400bps below algorithm). We project 1Q Walmart U.S. and Sam’s Club comps at +4.1% and +6.0%, ahead of Street at +3.9% and +4.5%, respectively. Channel checks and data from Numerator and 2nd Measure indicate Walmart is gaining share amid a tariff pull-forward YTD. Margins are likely flat to slightly down YoY as alternative profit streams offset price investment, Vizio headwinds, leap year comparison, and ~$200M in legal costs cited on April 9. SG&A should remain relatively controlled thanks to efficiency efforts. FX is a risk, along with near-term Vizio dilution. International will underperform in 1Q due to Easter timing shifting to 2Q for some markets."
Analyst: Greg Melich
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Evercore ISI Reiterates Outperform Rating on $WMT, Maintains PT at $105
Analyst comments: "Walmart reports 1Q results before the market opens on Thursday, 5/15. We expect a 'meet and keep' print, with 1Q in line with widened expectations and effectively flat operating income on a 4% comp. With peak tariff uncertainty hopefully behind us, concerns that management could 'soften up' 2Q (Street at $0.70) to keep operating income growth below sales are receding. While 2H remains a significant unknown, Walmart has enough company-specific sales and profit drivers to maintain full-year EPS in the original $2.50–$2.60 range, assuming tariffs land at 35% incremental on China and 15% rest of world.
We are looking for comps slightly above consensus, with EPS mostly in line ($0.58 vs. $0.57). Intra-quarter data support a resilient consumer, with some temporary relief from deescalating China tariff tensions. Walmart appears poised for another quarter of solid results and commentary. Its April analyst day highlighted long-term business drivers including margin-accretive alternative profit streams, and management left full-year guidance unchanged, suggesting sustained momentum.
While Walmart is better positioned than most retailers due to share gains and supply chain strengths, it is not immune from tariffs, FX volatility, and a choppy lower-income consumer. Longer term, we are bullish on Walmart’s ability to drive sustainable traffic growth while expanding EBIT margin globally. Execution and innovation continue to impress, especially in automation, retail media, and digital business profitability.
Walmart remains a Fab Five preferred stock for its defensive growth profile, margin levers, and strong balance sheet/cash flow amid a volatile tariff backdrop. For 1Q, we model net sales up +3.4% and EPS of $0.58 (vs. Street at +2.6% and $0.57), with operating income growing 0.2% (400bps below algorithm). We project 1Q Walmart U.S. and Sam’s Club comps at +4.1% and +6.0%, ahead of Street at +3.9% and +4.5%, respectively. Channel checks and data from Numerator and 2nd Measure indicate Walmart is gaining share amid a tariff pull-forward YTD. Margins are likely flat to slightly down YoY as alternative profit streams offset price investment, Vizio headwinds, leap year comparison, and ~$200M in legal costs cited on April 9. SG&A should remain relatively controlled thanks to efficiency efforts. FX is a risk, along with near-term Vizio dilution. International will underperform in 1Q due to Easter timing shifting to 2Q for some markets."
Analyst: Greg Melich
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BLACKROCK CEO FINK:
“There is $11 trillion sitting in money market funds in the U.S... When there is uncertainty, you are going to keep more & more money in cash — & that is what we witnessed.” The U.S. deficits are “an issue” & warns of more volatility over the next 90 days https://t.co/vdPedHEYlN
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BLACKROCK CEO FINK:
“There is $11 trillion sitting in money market funds in the U.S... When there is uncertainty, you are going to keep more & more money in cash — & that is what we witnessed.” The U.S. deficits are “an issue” & warns of more volatility over the next 90 days https://t.co/vdPedHEYlN
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Wall St Engine
BMO Capital Downgrades $ENPH to Underperform from Market Perform, Lowers PT to $39 from $46; 'We believe elimination of the 25D credit impacts ENPH disproportionately'
Analyst comments: "We are downgrading ENPH to Underperform from Market Perform and reducing our target price to $39 from $46. The release of the House Ways and Means Committee tax plan, if adopted, will eliminate, at the end of 2025, the Section 25D Residential Clean Energy Credit for homeowners who take loans or pay cash for their residential solar and battery systems. We believe elimination of the 25D credit impacts ENPH disproportionately and shrinks the overall demand for U.S. residential solar in 2026, further contributing to loss of market share in the near term."
Analyst: Ameet Thakkar
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BMO Capital Downgrades $ENPH to Underperform from Market Perform, Lowers PT to $39 from $46; 'We believe elimination of the 25D credit impacts ENPH disproportionately'
Analyst comments: "We are downgrading ENPH to Underperform from Market Perform and reducing our target price to $39 from $46. The release of the House Ways and Means Committee tax plan, if adopted, will eliminate, at the end of 2025, the Section 25D Residential Clean Energy Credit for homeowners who take loans or pay cash for their residential solar and battery systems. We believe elimination of the 25D credit impacts ENPH disproportionately and shrinks the overall demand for U.S. residential solar in 2026, further contributing to loss of market share in the near term."
Analyst: Ameet Thakkar
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$ONON | On Holding Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: CHF 726.6M (Est. CHF 680.5M) 🟢; +43.0% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: CHF 0.21 (Est. CHF 0.15) 🟢
🔹 Gross Margin: 59.9% vs. 59.7% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: CHF 119.9M; +54.8% YoY
Segment & Regional Performance
🔹 DTC Sales: CHF 276.9M; +45.3% YoY
🔹 Wholesale Sales: CHF 449.7M; +41.5% YoY
🔹 DTC Share: 38.1% of total revenue
🔹 EMEA Revenue: CHF 168.6M; +33.6% YoY
🔹 Americas Revenue: CHF 437.4M; +32.7% YoY
🔹 Asia-Pacific Revenue: CHF 120.6M; +130.1% YoY
🔹 Shoes: CHF 680.9M; +40.5% YoY
🔹 Apparel: CHF 38.1M; +93.1% YoY
🔹 Accessories: CHF 7.6M; +99.2% YoY
Guidance (FY25)
🔹 Revenue Growth: +28% constant currency → at least CHF 2.86B
🔹 Gross Margin: 60.0% – 60.5%
🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 16.5% – 17.5%
Commentary & Strategic Updates
🔸 Strong brand traction driven by product launches (Cloudsurfer 2, Cloud 6) and campaigns featuring Zendaya
🔸 DTC momentum and improved ops boosted profitability
🔸 Pricing strategy & innovation (e.g., LightSpray™) continue to support premium positioning
🔸 Store rollout & global expansion remain core focus despite macro uncertainties
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$ONON | On Holding Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: CHF 726.6M (Est. CHF 680.5M) 🟢; +43.0% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: CHF 0.21 (Est. CHF 0.15) 🟢
🔹 Gross Margin: 59.9% vs. 59.7% YoY
🔹 Adj. EBITDA: CHF 119.9M; +54.8% YoY
Segment & Regional Performance
🔹 DTC Sales: CHF 276.9M; +45.3% YoY
🔹 Wholesale Sales: CHF 449.7M; +41.5% YoY
🔹 DTC Share: 38.1% of total revenue
🔹 EMEA Revenue: CHF 168.6M; +33.6% YoY
🔹 Americas Revenue: CHF 437.4M; +32.7% YoY
🔹 Asia-Pacific Revenue: CHF 120.6M; +130.1% YoY
🔹 Shoes: CHF 680.9M; +40.5% YoY
🔹 Apparel: CHF 38.1M; +93.1% YoY
🔹 Accessories: CHF 7.6M; +99.2% YoY
Guidance (FY25)
🔹 Revenue Growth: +28% constant currency → at least CHF 2.86B
🔹 Gross Margin: 60.0% – 60.5%
🔹 Adj. EBITDA Margin: 16.5% – 17.5%
Commentary & Strategic Updates
🔸 Strong brand traction driven by product launches (Cloudsurfer 2, Cloud 6) and campaigns featuring Zendaya
🔸 DTC momentum and improved ops boosted profitability
🔸 Pricing strategy & innovation (e.g., LightSpray™) continue to support premium positioning
🔸 Store rollout & global expansion remain core focus despite macro uncertainties
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$SE | Sea Ltd. Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 EPS: $0.65 (Est. $0.60) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $4.84B (Est. $5.02B) 🔴; +29.6% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $946.5M (Est. $657M); 🟢 +135.9% YoY
Other Metrics:
🔹 Operating Income: $456.4M; UP +542% YoY
🔹 Service Revenue: $4.43B; UP +30.1% YoY
🔹 Sales of Goods: $406.6M; UP +24.6% YoY
🔹 Cost of Revenue: $2.60B; UP +19.5% YoY
Segment Performance
E-Commerce (Shopee)
🔹 GAAP Revenue: $3.12B; UP +28.7% YoY
🔹 Gross Orders: 3.1B; UP +20.5% YoY
🔹 GMV: $28.6B; UP +21.5% YoY
🔹 Marketplace Revenue: $3.1B; UP +28.7% YoY
🔹 Core Marketplace Revenue: $2.4B; UP +39.2% YoY
🔹 Value-Added Services Revenue: $752.2M; UP +4.1% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $264.4M (vs. -$21.7M YoY)
Digital Financial Services (Monee)
🔹 GAAP Revenue: $787.1M; UP +57.6% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $241.4M; UP +62.4% YoY
🔹 Consumer & SME Loans Outstanding: $5.8B; UP +76.5% YoY
🔹 NPLs (90+ days past due): 1.1% (Stable QoQ)
Digital Entertainment (Garena)
🔹 Bookings: $775.4M; UP +51.4% YoY
🔹 GAAP Revenue: $495.6M; UP +8.2% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $458.2M; UP +56.8% YoY
🔹 Quarterly Active Users: 661.8M; UP +11.3% YoY
🔹 Quarterly Paying Users: 64.6M; UP +32.2% YoY
🔹 Paying User Ratio: 9.8% (vs. 8.2% YoY)
🔹 Avg. Bookings per User: $1.17 (vs. $0.86 YoY)
Expense Breakdown
🔹 Sales & Marketing Expenses: $929.7M; UP +20.8% YoY
- E-Commerce: $777.5M; UP +15.0% YoY
- Digital Financial Services: $96.3M; UP +69.6% YoY
- Digital Entertainment: $28.9M; UP +49.2% YoY
🔹 General & Administrative Expenses: $307.2M; UP +5.6% YoY
🔹 R&D Expenses: $295.9M; DOWN -2.8% YoY
🔹 Provision for Credit Losses: $281.9M; UP +74.3% YoY
Other Metrics
🔹 Cost of Goods Sold: $373.8M; UP +20.8% YoY
🔹 Non-Operating Income: $89.2M (vs. -$17.5M YoY)
🔹 Income Tax Expense: $136.3M; UP +73.1% YoY
🔹 Operating Expenses: $1.78B; UP +20.0% YoY
CEO Forrest Li’s Commentary
🔸 “We have delivered another great quarter of strong growth with improving profitability across all three businesses.”
🔸 “Shopee achieved record-high GMV and gross order volume in Q1, sustaining market leadership with improved profitability in Asia and Brazil.”
🔸 “SeaMoney, now rebranded to Monee, grew revenue and adjusted EBITDA more than 50% YoY, while maintaining stable asset quality.”
🔸 “Garena had its best quarter since 2021, driven by Free Fire’s collaboration with NARUTO and a resurgence in engagement.”
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$SE | Sea Ltd. Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 EPS: $0.65 (Est. $0.60) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $4.84B (Est. $5.02B) 🔴; +29.6% YoY
🔹 Adj EBITDA: $946.5M (Est. $657M); 🟢 +135.9% YoY
Other Metrics:
🔹 Operating Income: $456.4M; UP +542% YoY
🔹 Service Revenue: $4.43B; UP +30.1% YoY
🔹 Sales of Goods: $406.6M; UP +24.6% YoY
🔹 Cost of Revenue: $2.60B; UP +19.5% YoY
Segment Performance
E-Commerce (Shopee)
🔹 GAAP Revenue: $3.12B; UP +28.7% YoY
🔹 Gross Orders: 3.1B; UP +20.5% YoY
🔹 GMV: $28.6B; UP +21.5% YoY
🔹 Marketplace Revenue: $3.1B; UP +28.7% YoY
🔹 Core Marketplace Revenue: $2.4B; UP +39.2% YoY
🔹 Value-Added Services Revenue: $752.2M; UP +4.1% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $264.4M (vs. -$21.7M YoY)
Digital Financial Services (Monee)
🔹 GAAP Revenue: $787.1M; UP +57.6% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $241.4M; UP +62.4% YoY
🔹 Consumer & SME Loans Outstanding: $5.8B; UP +76.5% YoY
🔹 NPLs (90+ days past due): 1.1% (Stable QoQ)
Digital Entertainment (Garena)
🔹 Bookings: $775.4M; UP +51.4% YoY
🔹 GAAP Revenue: $495.6M; UP +8.2% YoY
🔹 Adjusted EBITDA: $458.2M; UP +56.8% YoY
🔹 Quarterly Active Users: 661.8M; UP +11.3% YoY
🔹 Quarterly Paying Users: 64.6M; UP +32.2% YoY
🔹 Paying User Ratio: 9.8% (vs. 8.2% YoY)
🔹 Avg. Bookings per User: $1.17 (vs. $0.86 YoY)
Expense Breakdown
🔹 Sales & Marketing Expenses: $929.7M; UP +20.8% YoY
- E-Commerce: $777.5M; UP +15.0% YoY
- Digital Financial Services: $96.3M; UP +69.6% YoY
- Digital Entertainment: $28.9M; UP +49.2% YoY
🔹 General & Administrative Expenses: $307.2M; UP +5.6% YoY
🔹 R&D Expenses: $295.9M; DOWN -2.8% YoY
🔹 Provision for Credit Losses: $281.9M; UP +74.3% YoY
Other Metrics
🔹 Cost of Goods Sold: $373.8M; UP +20.8% YoY
🔹 Non-Operating Income: $89.2M (vs. -$17.5M YoY)
🔹 Income Tax Expense: $136.3M; UP +73.1% YoY
🔹 Operating Expenses: $1.78B; UP +20.0% YoY
CEO Forrest Li’s Commentary
🔸 “We have delivered another great quarter of strong growth with improving profitability across all three businesses.”
🔸 “Shopee achieved record-high GMV and gross order volume in Q1, sustaining market leadership with improved profitability in Asia and Brazil.”
🔸 “SeaMoney, now rebranded to Monee, grew revenue and adjusted EBITDA more than 50% YoY, while maintaining stable asset quality.”
🔸 “Garena had its best quarter since 2021, driven by Free Fire’s collaboration with NARUTO and a resurgence in engagement.”
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$UAA | Under Armour Q4 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj. EPS: -$0.08 (Est. -$0.08) 🟡
🔹 Revenue: $1.2B (Est. $1.16B) 🟢; -11% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 46.7%; +170 bps YoY
🔹 Inventory: $946M; -1% YoY
FY26 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: -4% to -5% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: +40 to +60 bps YoY
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $20M–$30M
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.01–$0.03
Q4 Segment Breakdown
🔹 North America: $689M; DOWN -11% YoY
🔹 International: $489M; DOWN -13% YoY
— EMEA: DOWN -2%
— APAC: DOWN -27%
🔹 Wholesale: $768M; DOWN -10% YoY
🔹 DTC: $386M; DOWN -15% YoY
🔹 Apparel: $780M; DOWN -11% YoY
🔹 Footwear: $282M; DOWN -17% YoY
🔹 Accessories: $92M; UP +2% YoY
CEO Kevin Plank’s Commentary
🔸 “We’re rebuilding Under Armour into a more focused and profitable brand.”
🔸 “Macro uncertainty and tariffs impact our outlook, but execution and alignment remain strong.”
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$UAA | Under Armour Q4 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Adj. EPS: -$0.08 (Est. -$0.08) 🟡
🔹 Revenue: $1.2B (Est. $1.16B) 🟢; -11% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: 46.7%; +170 bps YoY
🔹 Inventory: $946M; -1% YoY
FY26 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: -4% to -5% YoY
🔹 Gross Margin: +40 to +60 bps YoY
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $20M–$30M
🔹 Adj. EPS: $0.01–$0.03
Q4 Segment Breakdown
🔹 North America: $689M; DOWN -11% YoY
🔹 International: $489M; DOWN -13% YoY
— EMEA: DOWN -2%
— APAC: DOWN -27%
🔹 Wholesale: $768M; DOWN -10% YoY
🔹 DTC: $386M; DOWN -15% YoY
🔹 Apparel: $780M; DOWN -11% YoY
🔹 Footwear: $282M; DOWN -17% YoY
🔹 Accessories: $92M; UP +2% YoY
CEO Kevin Plank’s Commentary
🔸 “We’re rebuilding Under Armour into a more focused and profitable brand.”
🔸 “Macro uncertainty and tariffs impact our outlook, but execution and alignment remain strong.”
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Robinhood $HOOD to acquire Canada’s WonderFi in all-cash deal worth ~C$250M, a 41% premium to last close.
WonderFi operates Bitbuy & Coinsquare, with over C$2.1B in AUC. Deal expands Robinhood’s crypto footprint in one of the world’s fastest-growing crypto markets. https://t.co/YpmlU29vgN
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Robinhood $HOOD to acquire Canada’s WonderFi in all-cash deal worth ~C$250M, a 41% premium to last close.
WonderFi operates Bitbuy & Coinsquare, with over C$2.1B in AUC. Deal expands Robinhood’s crypto footprint in one of the world’s fastest-growing crypto markets. https://t.co/YpmlU29vgN
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