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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @qualityequities: In his book Focus: The ASML Way, Marc Hijink essentially sums up one of the most significant portions of $ASML ASML’s moat in this single paragraph:
“The Sun's corona, 93 million miles away, is the closest place you can find extreme ultraviolet light in its natural form. On Earth, however, generating EUV requires extremely sophisticated technology. One way is to shoot a powerful laser beam at a tiny droplet of hot tin. This creates a plasma, an energy charged form of gas, far hotter than the surface of the sun. In this process, invisible light with a wavelength of 13.5 nanometers is emitted. If you can catch this with a mirror, you can direct it into a lithography machine to project a chip pattern. Sounds simple: you just have to build a sun.”
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RT @qualityequities: In his book Focus: The ASML Way, Marc Hijink essentially sums up one of the most significant portions of $ASML ASML’s moat in this single paragraph:
“The Sun's corona, 93 million miles away, is the closest place you can find extreme ultraviolet light in its natural form. On Earth, however, generating EUV requires extremely sophisticated technology. One way is to shoot a powerful laser beam at a tiny droplet of hot tin. This creates a plasma, an energy charged form of gas, far hotter than the surface of the sun. In this process, invisible light with a wavelength of 13.5 nanometers is emitted. If you can catch this with a mirror, you can direct it into a lithography machine to project a chip pattern. Sounds simple: you just have to build a sun.”
$ASML ASML, the monopolistic semiconductor equipment powerhouse, has seen its shares pull back roughly 40% from all-time highs, presenting a compelling opportunity for long-term investors.
The company's recent 2024 Investor Day painted an optimistic growth trajectory. Management projects advanced logic EUV lithography spending to grow at a 10-20% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, with an even more robust 15-25% CAGR expected in DRAM applications.
Notable investors are taking advantage of the drawdown. Dev Kantesaria's Valley Forge Capital Management nearly doubled its position with a 99.72% increase, while Polen Capital Management bolstered its holdings by 31.75% in the latest quarter.
Given ASML's dominant market position and strong growth outlook, investors should consider maintaining their positions and adding during periods of weakness (like now). tweet
Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: Kushner has just reported the purchase of an additional $5M in $OSCR shares.
The stock is up 9% today, and up 21% in total since we reported on his first insider purchase on the 14th. https://t.co/YdDdeRsMDS
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RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 BREAKING: Kushner has just reported the purchase of an additional $5M in $OSCR shares.
The stock is up 9% today, and up 21% in total since we reported on his first insider purchase on the 14th. https://t.co/YdDdeRsMDS
$OSCR is up 13% at market open tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
We recently caught a STOCK Act violation by Senator Markwayne Mullin.
He bought stock in a company called Stride, $LRN, back in July.
It's a for-profit education company.
Mullin sits on the Senate Committee on Education.
The stock has now risen 35% since his trade. https://t.co/u50SYh8ZbA
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We recently caught a STOCK Act violation by Senator Markwayne Mullin.
He bought stock in a company called Stride, $LRN, back in July.
It's a for-profit education company.
Mullin sits on the Senate Committee on Education.
The stock has now risen 35% since his trade. https://t.co/u50SYh8ZbA
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Offshore
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Startup Archive
RT @DaveCristello: This whole talk was absolute fire.
I also love how he was obsessively in all details until 50-100 employees
This feels normal and antithetical to most biz books written for corporate leadership
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RT @DaveCristello: This whole talk was absolute fire.
I also love how he was obsessively in all details until 50-100 employees
This feels normal and antithetical to most biz books written for corporate leadership
Reed Hastings on the role of the CEO at a startup
“In the first couple of years, you do everything—you’re doing dishes at night, you’re coding, you’re writing marketing materials, you’re dealing with customers and investors. And you have so many disadvantages as an irrelevant little nothing of a company that you have to make up for it with talent, hard work, and brute force. And so if you’re lucky, that’s only a couple of years as opposed to 10 years, where you’re just on call constantly in a very intense way.”
But once you get to 50-100 people, you have to evolve your management style entirely and adapt to be more strategic. You no longer know everyone at the company, and are no longer involved in every little detail.
At Netflix’s scale, Reed’s responsibilities are almost entirely company strategy and vision. He’ll decide which markets Netflix should be in, but he’s not picking countries or shows. He’ll decide that the marketing budget should be 5-10% of revenue, rather than 50%, but he’s not deciding what the campaign is. And lastly he’ll set the vision in terms of culture:
“What are the rules of the road of how the firm operates? What’s our character so that it’s a healthy place?”
But at Netflix’s scale, the CEO can’t do much of the work:
“It’s just too big. And if you try to, you’ll (A) burn yourself out, and (B) get everyone else upset.”
This is actually what happened at Reed’s first company Pure Software:
“I was 33, the company had grown to about 50 people, and I was still trying to code at night and trying to be CEO during the day and sleeping at work, and I wasn’t careful enough about taking showers… It was just gross… And when there was bugs in my code, it was hard to get me to fix it because I was off doing other things… I was trying to hold on too long to the dual roles.”
Video source: @GreylockVC (2015) tweet
Quiver Quantitative
RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 JUST IN: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $TRS just reported the purchase of ~$250K of the company's stock.
This is the second insider buy we have ever seen him make this year.
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RT @InsiderRadar: 🚨 JUST IN: New CEO Insider Purchase
The CEO of $TRS just reported the purchase of ~$250K of the company's stock.
This is the second insider buy we have ever seen him make this year.
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Hidden Value Gems
Quite interesting how a group of researchers has developed a tool using ChatGPT to predict analyst actions after earning calls (change in PT and earning estimates).
The tool categorises the questions asked, and the answers given along four key dimensions:
- Growth potential of the company
- Earnings quality
- Quality of management
- Risks to the company
ChatGPT then scored scored each category which had a strong predictive power.
h/t Joachim Klement
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Quite interesting how a group of researchers has developed a tool using ChatGPT to predict analyst actions after earning calls (change in PT and earning estimates).
The tool categorises the questions asked, and the answers given along four key dimensions:
- Growth potential of the company
- Earnings quality
- Quality of management
- Risks to the company
ChatGPT then scored scored each category which had a strong predictive power.
h/t Joachim Klement
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Oakmark on TIS $3626 JP
Thesis: TIS, Inc. is well-positioned to capitalize on Japan’s growing demand for IT services, driven by digital transformation and a strong management team focused on strategic capital allocation.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/OOHBGnLlQx
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Oakmark on TIS $3626 JP
Thesis: TIS, Inc. is well-positioned to capitalize on Japan’s growing demand for IT services, driven by digital transformation and a strong management team focused on strategic capital allocation.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/OOHBGnLlQx
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Ennismore on Wise Plc $WISE LN
Thesis: Wise’s efficient, scalable business model and customer-first approach position it for sustained mid-teens growth, offering a compelling 8% FCF yield as the company matures into a global payments leader
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/rDJVhdISIq
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Ennismore on Wise Plc $WISE LN
Thesis: Wise’s efficient, scalable business model and customer-first approach position it for sustained mid-teens growth, offering a compelling 8% FCF yield as the company matures into a global payments leader
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/rDJVhdISIq
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Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Brian Armstrong on the importance of disagreeableness if you want to do important things
“What I’ve realized about a lot of people who I think are building important things in the world is that they’ve developed this high disagreeableness muscle where they’ve recognized that they’re not going to make everybody happy and they’ve made peace with it.”
He gives Mark Zuckerberg as an example.
“They realized at a certain point that whether I do the thing that I think everyone’s going to like or the thing that is more authentic to me, someone’s going to be pissed no matter what .So at the end of the day, I’m just going to do the thing that I think is right. And they’ve leaned more into authenticity instead of trying to say what they think people want to hear. And that does require you to have thick skin and some kind of high disagreeableness. And then they can actually do even more interesting stuff because they’re being themselves instead of trying to be liked.”
This is something Brian himself is even trying to work on. And of course there are limits — you don’t want to get to a place where you’re listening to nobody. You want people around you have your best interest at heart and to listen to them. But for people who don’t have your best interest at heart, you need to build the ability to ignore them.
“It’s a real superpower to care less what other people think — at least people who don’t have your best interests at heart.”
Video source: @StevenBartlett (2022)
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Brian Armstrong on the importance of disagreeableness if you want to do important things
“What I’ve realized about a lot of people who I think are building important things in the world is that they’ve developed this high disagreeableness muscle where they’ve recognized that they’re not going to make everybody happy and they’ve made peace with it.”
He gives Mark Zuckerberg as an example.
“They realized at a certain point that whether I do the thing that I think everyone’s going to like or the thing that is more authentic to me, someone’s going to be pissed no matter what .So at the end of the day, I’m just going to do the thing that I think is right. And they’ve leaned more into authenticity instead of trying to say what they think people want to hear. And that does require you to have thick skin and some kind of high disagreeableness. And then they can actually do even more interesting stuff because they’re being themselves instead of trying to be liked.”
This is something Brian himself is even trying to work on. And of course there are limits — you don’t want to get to a place where you’re listening to nobody. You want people around you have your best interest at heart and to listen to them. But for people who don’t have your best interest at heart, you need to build the ability to ignore them.
“It’s a real superpower to care less what other people think — at least people who don’t have your best interests at heart.”
Video source: @StevenBartlett (2022)
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Semiconductor Valuations & EPS Growth Est📈
Nvidia $NVDA
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2026 EPS: $4.19 (+46.7%)*
•2027 EPS: $5.01 (+19.6%)
•2028 EPS: $5.27 (+5.2%)
Applied Materials $AMAT
•NTM P/E: 17.88x*
•2025 EPS: $9.55 (+10.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $10.77 (+12.8%)
•2027 EPS: $11.94 (+10.9%)
ASML Holding $ASML
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2025 EPS: $24.65 (+21.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $31.31 (+27.0%)
•2027 EPS: $38.22 (+22.8%)
Lam Research $LRCX
•NTM P/E: 19.32x*
•2025 EPS: $3.56 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.23 (+18.7%)
•2027 EPS: $4.83 (+14.2%)
KLA Corp $KLAC
•NTM P/E: 20.01x*
•2025 EPS: $30.69 (+29.3%)*
•2026 EPS: $33.00 (+7.5%)
•2027 EPS: $37.47 (+13.6%)
Analog Devices $ADI
•NTM P/E: 30.31x*
•2025 EPS: $7.48 (+17.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $9.21 (+23.2%)
•2027 EPS: $11.64 (+26.3%)
Texas Instruments $TXN
•NTM P/E: 37.39x*
•2025 EPS: $6.07 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.64 (+25.9%)
•2027 EPS: $9.58 (+25.4%)
Monolithic Power $MPWR
•NTM P/E: 36.45x*
•2025 EPS: $16.78 (+19.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $21.30 (+26.9%)
•2027 EPS: $25.23 (+18.5%)
Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
•NTM P/E: 30.47x*
•2025 EPS: $5.13 (+54.1%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.13 (+39.0%)
•2027 EPS: $9.15 (+28.3%)
Cadence Design Systems $CDNS
•NTM P/E: 43.57x*
•2025 EPS: $6.87 (+15.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.95 (+15.8%)
•2027 EPS: $8.81 (+10.8%)
#stocks #investing
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**data from tikr
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Semiconductor Valuations & EPS Growth Est📈
Nvidia $NVDA
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2026 EPS: $4.19 (+46.7%)*
•2027 EPS: $5.01 (+19.6%)
•2028 EPS: $5.27 (+5.2%)
Applied Materials $AMAT
•NTM P/E: 17.88x*
•2025 EPS: $9.55 (+10.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $10.77 (+12.8%)
•2027 EPS: $11.94 (+10.9%)
ASML Holding $ASML
•NTM P/E: 40.62x*
•2025 EPS: $24.65 (+21.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $31.31 (+27.0%)
•2027 EPS: $38.22 (+22.8%)
Lam Research $LRCX
•NTM P/E: 19.32x*
•2025 EPS: $3.56 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $4.23 (+18.7%)
•2027 EPS: $4.83 (+14.2%)
KLA Corp $KLAC
•NTM P/E: 20.01x*
•2025 EPS: $30.69 (+29.3%)*
•2026 EPS: $33.00 (+7.5%)
•2027 EPS: $37.47 (+13.6%)
Analog Devices $ADI
•NTM P/E: 30.31x*
•2025 EPS: $7.48 (+17.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $9.21 (+23.2%)
•2027 EPS: $11.64 (+26.3%)
Texas Instruments $TXN
•NTM P/E: 37.39x*
•2025 EPS: $6.07 (+17.5%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.64 (+25.9%)
•2027 EPS: $9.58 (+25.4%)
Monolithic Power $MPWR
•NTM P/E: 36.45x*
•2025 EPS: $16.78 (+19.4%)*
•2026 EPS: $21.30 (+26.9%)
•2027 EPS: $25.23 (+18.5%)
Advanced Micro Devices $AMD
•NTM P/E: 30.47x*
•2025 EPS: $5.13 (+54.1%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.13 (+39.0%)
•2027 EPS: $9.15 (+28.3%)
Cadence Design Systems $CDNS
•NTM P/E: 43.57x*
•2025 EPS: $6.87 (+15.9%)*
•2026 EPS: $7.95 (+15.8%)
•2027 EPS: $8.81 (+10.8%)
#stocks #investing
___
**data from tikr
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