Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Vulcan Value Partners on CBRE $CBRE US
Thesis: CBRE’s strong performance in recurring revenue streams and signs of recovery in transactional services make it a resilient play, poised to benefit from falling interest rates.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/3ezB9k5qbn
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Vulcan Value Partners on CBRE $CBRE US
Thesis: CBRE’s strong performance in recurring revenue streams and signs of recovery in transactional services make it a resilient play, poised to benefit from falling interest rates.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/3ezB9k5qbn
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Larry Page’s response to Steve Jobs’s critique that Google lacks focus
When asked about Steve Jobs’s critique that Google is doing too many things and lacks focus, Page jokes:
“I mean he was right. He did fine as well.”
But Page does admit Google’s lack of focus is something he worried about. He explains that he chose this path for Google because he wanted to build a company for engineers and entrepreneurs.
“You’re looking at the business benefit you might get [from trying all of these different ideas]. But I also think in terms of motivating ourselves, potential employees, and entrepreneurs. We want to be doing things that are exciting and that are really going to make a difference.”
One of the things that inspired Page to create the Alphabet org structure was the observation that companies—in general—have bad reputations.
“Most people don’t wake up and say ‘Oh, I wish I could go work for a company.’ They do it because they have to… I think that’s something we should work to change.”
This was his goal for Google.
“I think we need to be more ambitious. We’ve got to do things that matter more to people. We’ve got to do fewer things that are zero-sum games, and more things that really cause a lot of benefit.”
Video source: @FortuneMagazine (2015)
tweet
Larry Page’s response to Steve Jobs’s critique that Google lacks focus
When asked about Steve Jobs’s critique that Google is doing too many things and lacks focus, Page jokes:
“I mean he was right. He did fine as well.”
But Page does admit Google’s lack of focus is something he worried about. He explains that he chose this path for Google because he wanted to build a company for engineers and entrepreneurs.
“You’re looking at the business benefit you might get [from trying all of these different ideas]. But I also think in terms of motivating ourselves, potential employees, and entrepreneurs. We want to be doing things that are exciting and that are really going to make a difference.”
One of the things that inspired Page to create the Alphabet org structure was the observation that companies—in general—have bad reputations.
“Most people don’t wake up and say ‘Oh, I wish I could go work for a company.’ They do it because they have to… I think that’s something we should work to change.”
This was his goal for Google.
“I think we need to be more ambitious. We’ve got to do things that matter more to people. We’ve got to do fewer things that are zero-sum games, and more things that really cause a lot of benefit.”
Video source: @FortuneMagazine (2015)
tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$NVO down -32% from all time highs after being up +42% for the year 📈📉
#stocks #investing $LLY https://t.co/woYA8RzTYR
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$NVO down -32% from all time highs after being up +42% for the year 📈📉
#stocks #investing $LLY https://t.co/woYA8RzTYR
A sober valuation analysis on $NVO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 27.38x
•10-Year Mean: 25.22x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.61%
•10-Year Mean: 3.74%
As you can see, $NVO appears to be trading near or above fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~8% LESS in earnings per share & ~30% LESS in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $NVO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $11.18B
•Long-Term Debt: $7.68B
$NVO has a strong balance sheet, an AA- S&P Credit Rating & 777x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 84.4%
•2020: 71.0%
•2021: 57.7%
•2022: 65.0%
•2023: 72.3%
•LTM: 64.3%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 71.2%
•2020: 69.7%
•2021: 71.2%
•2022: 72.0%
•2023: 88.1%
•LTM: 88.7%
$NVO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.79B
•2023: $34.40B
•CAGR: 9.57%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $4.19B
•2023: $12.31B
•CAGR: 11.37%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.85
•2023: $2.70
•CAGR: 12.25%
SHARE BUYBACKS✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 5.39B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 4.47B
By reducing its shares outstanding ~17%, $NVO increased its EPS by ~20% (assuming 0 growth)
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 84.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 44.3%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 35.0%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~8% LESS in EPS & ~30% LESS in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $NVO has to grow earnings at a 13.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (13.69%) required growth rate:
2024E: $3.24 (20.6% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $3.98 (22.9% YoY)
2026E: $4.76 (19.9% YoY)
$NVO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $NVO ends 2026 with $4.76 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
28x P/E: $133.28💵 … ~12.3% CAGR
27x P/E: $133.28💵 … ~10.4% CAGR
26x P/E: $123.76💵 … ~8.6% CAGR
24x P/E: $114.24💵 … ~4.7% CAGR
23x P/E: $109.48💵 … ~2.5% CAGR
As you can see, $NVO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >27x earnings (a multiple above its 10-year mean, however it is a multiple justified by its growth rate & quality)
Those buying $NVO today at $106💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’ll be more interested in $NVO closer to $90💵 (15% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect double-digit returns while assuming a 23x end multiple, ensuring some margin of safety
#stocks #investing
*Financials in USD
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. tweet
Offshore
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
$TMO down -17% & $DHR down -16% in the past month as the new administration’s stance on biotech & biopharma companies is currently perceived as a headwind for the sector 🧬
Watching $TMO & $DHR closely & hoping this sell-off continues 🤞🏽
#stocks #investing https://t.co/fysK5BxVx5
tweet
$TMO down -17% & $DHR down -16% in the past month as the new administration’s stance on biotech & biopharma companies is currently perceived as a headwind for the sector 🧬
Watching $TMO & $DHR closely & hoping this sell-off continues 🤞🏽
#stocks #investing https://t.co/fysK5BxVx5
A sober valuation analysis on $TMO 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/E Ratio: 23.68x
•5-Year Mean: 24.92x
•NTM FCF Yield: 4.09%
•5-Year Mean: 3.59%
As you can see, $TMO appears to be trading near fair value
Going forward, investors can receive ~5% MORE in earnings per share & ~14% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $TMO is a great business
BALANCE SHEET🆗
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $6.65B
•Long-Term Debt: $31.20B
$TMO has a good balance sheet (acquisitions a big growth driver), a A- S&P Credit Rating & 6x FFO Interest Coverage
RETURN ON CAPITAL✅*
•2019: 8.3%
•2020: 13.4%
•2021: 12.8%
•2022: 10.3%
•2023: 8.7%
•LTM: 8.6%
*lower ROIC due to acquisition strategy
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 12.9%
•2020: 19.9%
•2021: 20.5%
•2022: 16.4%
•2023: 13.1%
•LTM: 12.9%
$TMO has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2013: $13.09B
•2023: $42.86B
•CAGR: 12.59%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $1.73B
•2023: $6.93B
•CAGR: 14.88%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $5.42
•2023: $21.55
•CAGR: 14.80%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 365.80M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 384.25M
MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 40.7%
•LTM Operating Margins: 17.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 14.5%
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~5% MORE in EPS & ~14% MORE in FCF per share
Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $TMO has to grow earnings at an 11.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation
Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (11.84%) required growth rate:
2024E: $21.70 (0.7% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $23.58 (8.7% YoY)
2026E: $26.37 (11.8% YoY)
$TMO has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $TMO ends 2026 with $26.37 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples
27x P/E: $711.99💵 … ~14.0% CAGR
26x P/E: $685.62💵 … ~12.0% CAGR
25x P/E: $659.25💵 … ~10.0% CAGR
24x P/E: $632.88💵 … ~7.9% CAGR
As you can see, $TMO appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >26x earnings (a multiple above its 5-year mean & multiple that may be slightly demanding given its growth rate
However, $TMO is an excellent business with a wide moat & will benefit from future ongoing sector demand
Yet, those buying $TMO today at $541💵 are buying it for a fair price, with little margin of safety
I’d be more interested in $TMO closer to $500💵 (8% below today’s price) where I can reasonably expect ~11% to ~12% CAGR while assuming a 23x - 24x end multiple, ensuring a comfortable margin of safety
#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.
𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.
𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. tweet
Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Oakmark on LPL Financial $LPLA US
Thesis: LPL Financial’s strong growth, scalable business model, and attractive valuation position it well for long-term earnings potential, despite short-term market concerns.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/tKyWGKB276
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Oakmark on LPL Financial $LPLA US
Thesis: LPL Financial’s strong growth, scalable business model, and attractive valuation position it well for long-term earnings potential, despite short-term market concerns.
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/tKyWGKB276
tweet