Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
“If a business earns 6% on capital over forty years, you’re not going to make much different than 6% return, EVEN IF you buy it at a huge discount.
Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital, you’ll end up with one hell of a return long term, EVEN IF you pay an expensive looking price.”
— Charlie Munger 🗣️
This. Is. Why. Quality. First. Then. Valuation.
#stocks #investing
tweet
“If a business earns 6% on capital over forty years, you’re not going to make much different than 6% return, EVEN IF you buy it at a huge discount.
Conversely, if a business earns 18% on capital, you’ll end up with one hell of a return long term, EVEN IF you pay an expensive looking price.”
— Charlie Munger 🗣️
This. Is. Why. Quality. First. Then. Valuation.
#stocks #investing
tweet
Clark Square Capital
RT @SavingPlants: Great write up on $MAPS as a primary benefactor of rescheduling of cannabis - includes primer, valuation, and a working model.
tweet
RT @SavingPlants: Great write up on $MAPS as a primary benefactor of rescheduling of cannabis - includes primer, valuation, and a working model.
Big news yesterday for $MSOS
IMO, the best way to play the industry-wide catalyst is through $MAPS given that 280e tax savings will get reinvested into marketing.
The dominant advertising platform should benefit disproportionately.
Below is my original write-up [open to all] tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) on X
Big news yesterday for $MSOS
IMO, the best way to play the industry-wide catalyst is through $MAPS given that 280e tax savings will get reinvested into marketing.
The dominant advertising platform should benefit disproportionately.
Below is my original…
IMO, the best way to play the industry-wide catalyst is through $MAPS given that 280e tax savings will get reinvested into marketing.
The dominant advertising platform should benefit disproportionately.
Below is my original…
Offshore
Photo
Clark Square Capital
Good write-up on PharmX
tweet
Good write-up on PharmX
Wow, look at this guy, saying he's gonna do more threads then doing a substack article.
New one out. PharmX is the company. Dominant Australian pharmacy EDI for 0.7x EV/ARR.
Yes there are some catches. https://t.co/cXZnBNZPjn tweet
Brandon Beylo
RT @elanmoritz: Thank you @marketplunger1 Beylo, great #summary on #critical aspects of #mining and #metals✔️✅🎯🍀"
Robert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining.
When he speaks, we should listen.
He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more.
Here are my notes from the talk 👇
WHAT DOES "ENERGY TRANSITION" MEAN?
"You have a billion people that burn firewood to live. They have no access to electrical energy."
"We're burning more coal and more oil today than in the history of the world."
"We spent $4T putting up solar panels for hydrocarbons to still capture 83% of energy source."
"You're not going to stop global warming by buying an electric car."
ON ELECTRIC CARS & EV BATTERIES
"With current lithium ion technology, the destruction we cause, the global warming gas we cause, we might as well sit on our chairs and do nothing."
"You just bought your wife a coal-burning car by buying an EV."
"The current generation of EV batteries will be toast in 2-3 years."
"I would short every lithium company in the world."
"We're going to kill the lithium hydroxide business over time."
COMMON METALS VITAL FOR TRANSITION
"If we're going to have a transition, we need common and abundant materials. We can't rely on things like nickel."
"The batteries they're making now are low-grade lithium metal. You don't need nickel, cobalt, graphite, They're out the window."
"You want batteries made out of common materials so billions of people can use it."
WOMB TO TOMB EXAMINATION OF NET ZERO
"Look at the whole system if you're trying to eliminate global warming."
"The Chinese are saying 2060 and India is now saying 2070. What does that tell you?"
"There's zero chance that the twelve major automakers will find enough nickel to make their batteries."
"The amount of metal we need doesn't exist currently in a way that's green or sustainable. It's apparent to any readily intelligible person."
"How can we stop burning coal and oil and not have an energy transition?"
TWO COMPETING PARADIGMS
"We have two competing tribes. One tribe says 'I want to save the world, I'm green, I need cobalt, nickel, platinum, or palladium'. The other tribe says 'Holy shit, the Army/Navy wants these metals for national defense.'"
"The intensity of metal demand in conflict is beyond your wildest imagination. In WWI you needed a telescope to see the price of copper."
"So we're heading to a world where both tribes have a strong demand for more metals. We're balkenizing the world into two camps and its tearing the global supply chains apart."
A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
"It does appear that the world is warming, and there's zero chance we'll reduce that. The question is how bad will it get?"
"I was in CA recently, it was $6.20 per gallon. The average citizen is pissed off."
"I agree with Jamie Dimon that this is the most dangerous time since I've been alive."
"The Fed are idiots. They told us that inflation was over. And it's not even close."
WE NEED TO REINVENT THE MINING INDUSTRY
"First of all, we have to try to mine in the United States. No intelligent person has tried to do that in the last few generations."
"Everything is blown out of proportion because mining is viewed as a bad thing."
"We also have to determine what metals we actually need for the future. Which is copper."
"Imagine you're plugging an EV w/ 1MW charger. Our grid is literally a 110 year old lady waiting to die. The Chinese tell me it will take $21T to rebuild the electrical grid."
"Our grid is like balancing a pencil vertically on your palm. There's no storage there."
"The symbol of the US, the bald eagle, is flying into offshore windmills. They're just chewing them up. Who wants to live near them? They're very low density."
"At least real miners know how hard it is to actually find metals and mine it."
ENERGY CONSUM[...]
RT @elanmoritz: Thank you @marketplunger1 Beylo, great #summary on #critical aspects of #mining and #metals✔️✅🎯🍀"
Robert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining.
When he speaks, we should listen.
He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more.
Here are my notes from the talk 👇
WHAT DOES "ENERGY TRANSITION" MEAN?
"You have a billion people that burn firewood to live. They have no access to electrical energy."
"We're burning more coal and more oil today than in the history of the world."
"We spent $4T putting up solar panels for hydrocarbons to still capture 83% of energy source."
"You're not going to stop global warming by buying an electric car."
ON ELECTRIC CARS & EV BATTERIES
"With current lithium ion technology, the destruction we cause, the global warming gas we cause, we might as well sit on our chairs and do nothing."
"You just bought your wife a coal-burning car by buying an EV."
"The current generation of EV batteries will be toast in 2-3 years."
"I would short every lithium company in the world."
"We're going to kill the lithium hydroxide business over time."
COMMON METALS VITAL FOR TRANSITION
"If we're going to have a transition, we need common and abundant materials. We can't rely on things like nickel."
"The batteries they're making now are low-grade lithium metal. You don't need nickel, cobalt, graphite, They're out the window."
"You want batteries made out of common materials so billions of people can use it."
WOMB TO TOMB EXAMINATION OF NET ZERO
"Look at the whole system if you're trying to eliminate global warming."
"The Chinese are saying 2060 and India is now saying 2070. What does that tell you?"
"There's zero chance that the twelve major automakers will find enough nickel to make their batteries."
"The amount of metal we need doesn't exist currently in a way that's green or sustainable. It's apparent to any readily intelligible person."
"How can we stop burning coal and oil and not have an energy transition?"
TWO COMPETING PARADIGMS
"We have two competing tribes. One tribe says 'I want to save the world, I'm green, I need cobalt, nickel, platinum, or palladium'. The other tribe says 'Holy shit, the Army/Navy wants these metals for national defense.'"
"The intensity of metal demand in conflict is beyond your wildest imagination. In WWI you needed a telescope to see the price of copper."
"So we're heading to a world where both tribes have a strong demand for more metals. We're balkenizing the world into two camps and its tearing the global supply chains apart."
A VERY DIFFICULT TIME
"It does appear that the world is warming, and there's zero chance we'll reduce that. The question is how bad will it get?"
"I was in CA recently, it was $6.20 per gallon. The average citizen is pissed off."
"I agree with Jamie Dimon that this is the most dangerous time since I've been alive."
"The Fed are idiots. They told us that inflation was over. And it's not even close."
WE NEED TO REINVENT THE MINING INDUSTRY
"First of all, we have to try to mine in the United States. No intelligent person has tried to do that in the last few generations."
"Everything is blown out of proportion because mining is viewed as a bad thing."
"We also have to determine what metals we actually need for the future. Which is copper."
"Imagine you're plugging an EV w/ 1MW charger. Our grid is literally a 110 year old lady waiting to die. The Chinese tell me it will take $21T to rebuild the electrical grid."
"Our grid is like balancing a pencil vertically on your palm. There's no storage there."
"The symbol of the US, the bald eagle, is flying into offshore windmills. They're just chewing them up. Who wants to live near them? They're very low density."
"At least real miners know how hard it is to actually find metals and mine it."
ENERGY CONSUM[...]
Offshore
Brandon Beylo RT @elanmoritz: Thank you @marketplunger1 Beylo, great #summary on #critical aspects of #mining and #metals✔️✅🎯🍀" Robert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining. When he speaks, we should listen.…
PTION
"A Google search requires 1,000 joules of electrical energy. You think its free, but its paid for by advertising."
"You think the internet is green? You know how much energy it requires to use AI/ChatGPT? You think Bitcoin/crypto is green?"
IMPORTANCE OF COPPER
"I don't know if we need gold. But I do know we need copper. And we need it really badly."
"Having said that, I'd rather there be gold in my copper. Because people will always want gold."
"People are getting rid of their excess copper because they're de-stocking to reduce their interest cost. But we're nearing the end of de-stocking and paper selling."
"This huge clash is coming between Army, Navy, Air Force and the Greening of the world economy. And the miners have an unbelievable burden to make that happen."
"At the same time we need these metals, its harder to get the equipment needed to mine the metal!"
"The miners have a very important role to play to supply the world with the metals it desperately needs."
IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI ARABIA
"If Saudi Arabia can't maintain basic energy security, we'll have $200-$300 oil. We need stability in that pricing. At $100-$300 oil, people in Egypt don't eat."
"Saudi is playing a beneficial role by keeping oil between $70-90 per barrel."
AUDIENCE Q&A
"The valuation of the mining industry relative to the S&P 500 is the lowest in living memory. The general person thinks that mining is evil and must be eliminated."
"50% of what goes into an EV is hydrocarbon. If we stopped producing oil, half of humanity would die from starvation."
"I don't think we understand how formidable the Chinese are."
"In a Balkenized economy, we went from a Just-in-Time supply chain to a Just-in-Case supply chain."
"How much metal do we need to build nuclear reactors? How much steel, concrete, rebar, nuclear engineers do you need to build these things?"
"The problem is that the world economy is Balkenized. Where is the steel coming from? Where are the pumps coming from? The French want nuclear power, and the Germans are burning coal. Even within Europe, its Balkenized. That's all I see."
"I think the mining industry needs to defend itself more. Where do you think stuff comes from? There's the hardware of the mine (tons, grade, engineering).
Then there's all the people around the mine (locals). There's invariably a clash with the locals around the mine. Unless they're buying into it, its not going to happen. That's the software around mining."
ON KNOWING WHERE THINGS COME FROM
"People don't realize where things come from. As people live in urban environments, they forget where things come from."
"We need to communicate the importance of mining and humanize it as an activity. We need to mine in the United States. We need to figure out what should be mined, where we're allowed to mine, and how." "- Brandon Beylo
tweet
"A Google search requires 1,000 joules of electrical energy. You think its free, but its paid for by advertising."
"You think the internet is green? You know how much energy it requires to use AI/ChatGPT? You think Bitcoin/crypto is green?"
IMPORTANCE OF COPPER
"I don't know if we need gold. But I do know we need copper. And we need it really badly."
"Having said that, I'd rather there be gold in my copper. Because people will always want gold."
"People are getting rid of their excess copper because they're de-stocking to reduce their interest cost. But we're nearing the end of de-stocking and paper selling."
"This huge clash is coming between Army, Navy, Air Force and the Greening of the world economy. And the miners have an unbelievable burden to make that happen."
"At the same time we need these metals, its harder to get the equipment needed to mine the metal!"
"The miners have a very important role to play to supply the world with the metals it desperately needs."
IMPORTANCE OF SAUDI ARABIA
"If Saudi Arabia can't maintain basic energy security, we'll have $200-$300 oil. We need stability in that pricing. At $100-$300 oil, people in Egypt don't eat."
"Saudi is playing a beneficial role by keeping oil between $70-90 per barrel."
AUDIENCE Q&A
"The valuation of the mining industry relative to the S&P 500 is the lowest in living memory. The general person thinks that mining is evil and must be eliminated."
"50% of what goes into an EV is hydrocarbon. If we stopped producing oil, half of humanity would die from starvation."
"I don't think we understand how formidable the Chinese are."
"In a Balkenized economy, we went from a Just-in-Time supply chain to a Just-in-Case supply chain."
"How much metal do we need to build nuclear reactors? How much steel, concrete, rebar, nuclear engineers do you need to build these things?"
"The problem is that the world economy is Balkenized. Where is the steel coming from? Where are the pumps coming from? The French want nuclear power, and the Germans are burning coal. Even within Europe, its Balkenized. That's all I see."
"I think the mining industry needs to defend itself more. Where do you think stuff comes from? There's the hardware of the mine (tons, grade, engineering).
Then there's all the people around the mine (locals). There's invariably a clash with the locals around the mine. Unless they're buying into it, its not going to happen. That's the software around mining."
ON KNOWING WHERE THINGS COME FROM
"People don't realize where things come from. As people live in urban environments, they forget where things come from."
"We need to communicate the importance of mining and humanize it as an activity. We need to mine in the United States. We need to figure out what should be mined, where we're allowed to mine, and how." "- Brandon Beylo
tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Brandon Beylo (@marketplunger1) on X
Robert Friedland (@robert_ivanhoe) is one of the most important voices in Metals & Mining.
When he speaks, we should listen.
He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more.
Here are my notes from the talk…
When he speaks, we should listen.
He recently gave a 40-minute speech on Green Energy, Electrification, Metal Scarcity, and more.
Here are my notes from the talk…
Offshore
Video
Q-Cap
1) Had no idea SteveO’s dad was a Delmonte CEO
2) Always amazed hearing some westerners believe everyone has access to the same life opportunities they have. https://t.co/dCVXWLpt0I
tweet
1) Had no idea SteveO’s dad was a Delmonte CEO
2) Always amazed hearing some westerners believe everyone has access to the same life opportunities they have. https://t.co/dCVXWLpt0I
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
New investor presentation from Alphamin Resources $AFM.V just dropped.
I love that management listens to shareholders and engages with the investment community more.
The next step is getting Maritz on Value Hive!
Disc: long
Link to presentation: https://t.co/9ypbDtm3xI https://t.co/yEy0xrcbHd
tweet
New investor presentation from Alphamin Resources $AFM.V just dropped.
I love that management listens to shareholders and engages with the investment community more.
The next step is getting Maritz on Value Hive!
Disc: long
Link to presentation: https://t.co/9ypbDtm3xI https://t.co/yEy0xrcbHd
tweet
Clark Square Capital
RT @SavingPlants: Great write up on $MAPS as a primary benefactor of rescheduling of cannabis - includes primer, valuation, and a working model.
tweet
RT @SavingPlants: Great write up on $MAPS as a primary benefactor of rescheduling of cannabis - includes primer, valuation, and a working model.
Big news yesterday for $MSOS
IMO, the best way to play the industry-wide catalyst is through $MAPS given that 280e tax savings will get reinvested into marketing.
The dominant advertising platform should benefit disproportionately.
Below is my original write-up [open to all] tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Clark Square Capital (@ClarkSquareCap) on X
Big news yesterday for $MSOS
IMO, the best way to play the industry-wide catalyst is through $MAPS given that 280e tax savings will get reinvested into marketing.
The dominant advertising platform should benefit disproportionately.
Below is my original…
IMO, the best way to play the industry-wide catalyst is through $MAPS given that 280e tax savings will get reinvested into marketing.
The dominant advertising platform should benefit disproportionately.
Below is my original…
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
$BABA did we find the bottom that day?
11% up since then
tweet
$BABA did we find the bottom that day?
11% up since then
$BABA and a Market Cycle.
Mind blown. https://t.co/CrRf40bEJZ tweet
The Long Investor
Why is long term investing so hard for many to do?
1. When there is a 50-61% retracement, this is difficult for any investor to handle, even professionals struggle with this, it is difficult to see beyond the decline and see it as an opportunity
2. It does not trigger our dopamine responses the same way short term gains can give us quick hit
3. It’s slow, boring and the opposite of the life the Wolf of Wall Street promised
4. People struggle to see beyond a 3 month date range, humans are natural short term thinkers.
5. People see the lives of some on social media and they want that immediately, you will never see the sweat and sacrifice that it takes to get to that stage first.
The path to true wealth from investing is found by focusing on Long Term.
$SPY $QQQ
tweet
Why is long term investing so hard for many to do?
1. When there is a 50-61% retracement, this is difficult for any investor to handle, even professionals struggle with this, it is difficult to see beyond the decline and see it as an opportunity
2. It does not trigger our dopamine responses the same way short term gains can give us quick hit
3. It’s slow, boring and the opposite of the life the Wolf of Wall Street promised
4. People struggle to see beyond a 3 month date range, humans are natural short term thinkers.
5. People see the lives of some on social media and they want that immediately, you will never see the sweat and sacrifice that it takes to get to that stage first.
The path to true wealth from investing is found by focusing on Long Term.
$SPY $QQQ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
$ABNB’s margins continue to be impressive
ROE: 74%
Profit Margin: 48%
PE: 19
But I think they can improve their TAM:
- you can rent someone’s house, why not have the ability to rent their car too?
- loyalty program similar to that of $BKNG
- Free Cancelation Option
@bchesky https://t.co/Qlrs6mvHa2
tweet
$ABNB’s margins continue to be impressive
ROE: 74%
Profit Margin: 48%
PE: 19
But I think they can improve their TAM:
- you can rent someone’s house, why not have the ability to rent their car too?
- loyalty program similar to that of $BKNG
- Free Cancelation Option
@bchesky https://t.co/Qlrs6mvHa2
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Daniel
Emotional Agility is a very underrated book that I believe every investor should read.
It's about gaining control of our minds and decisions by handling emotional impulses.
Here are my 8 Key Takeaways:
1. Negative Emotion -> Irrational Narratives
Most of our irrational narratives are based on negative emotions that we process by creating stories to understand and cope with what happened.
These irrational stories cloud our judgment and prevent us from making the right decisions.
2. Emotions are on Top
We are evolutionarily wired to prioritize emotions and believe them almost unconditionally.
This is linked to the concept of real and constructed danger...
3. Real and Constructed Danger
We can't differentiate between a real physical danger and an actually harmless scenario (our portfolio going down).
Our body's reaction is the same: We feel a negative emotion and turn off our rational mind. We can prevent this by taking a step back when we realize emotion is getting the better of us.
It sounds silly, but taking a small breather can change our entire emotional reaction.
4. The Positive and Negative Side of Narratives
Narratives often don't reflect the objective reality. While this sounds bad at first, it's actually very helpful for our overall well-being.
However, as investors, we should limit positive (or negative) narratives to our private lives. They can't influence our opinions of companies, managers, etc.
5. Ignoring Emotions
By ignoring emotions, you miss out on the benefit of understanding them.
Knowing why you feel as you do helps with finding a solution.
If you can barely sleep thinking about your portfolio? You should probably rethink the strategy...
6. Thinking is not Solving
Thinking about an emotion over and over again is not the same as solving it.
Solving is about drawing consequences and creating systems to overcome quick judgment.
7. Four Steps to Emotional Agility
Step 1: Label Your Emotions
Write them down. Be honest and specific.
Step 2: Accept Your Emotions
Think about your emotions as if it's a good friend telling you about his. You'd understand.
Step 3: View Your Emotions Objectively
Extract from your emotion and look at the situation isolated. Is your initial reaction justified?
Journaling helps to dissect and learn from past experiences. (For Kahneman, an investment journal is the key for every investor).
Step 4: Choose Your Values
What are your guiding principles? What person do you want to be? How would that person act and decide?
In an investing framework: What's your investing philosophy? How do I structure my investing process as rationally as possible? What would Buffett do? (just a joke, or is it... 😉 )
8. Routines
Use routines to stay on track and prevent falling back into old, bad habits
The more routines you have the less time for your brain to wander to unhealthy places.
tweet
Emotional Agility is a very underrated book that I believe every investor should read.
It's about gaining control of our minds and decisions by handling emotional impulses.
Here are my 8 Key Takeaways:
1. Negative Emotion -> Irrational Narratives
Most of our irrational narratives are based on negative emotions that we process by creating stories to understand and cope with what happened.
These irrational stories cloud our judgment and prevent us from making the right decisions.
2. Emotions are on Top
We are evolutionarily wired to prioritize emotions and believe them almost unconditionally.
This is linked to the concept of real and constructed danger...
3. Real and Constructed Danger
We can't differentiate between a real physical danger and an actually harmless scenario (our portfolio going down).
Our body's reaction is the same: We feel a negative emotion and turn off our rational mind. We can prevent this by taking a step back when we realize emotion is getting the better of us.
It sounds silly, but taking a small breather can change our entire emotional reaction.
4. The Positive and Negative Side of Narratives
Narratives often don't reflect the objective reality. While this sounds bad at first, it's actually very helpful for our overall well-being.
However, as investors, we should limit positive (or negative) narratives to our private lives. They can't influence our opinions of companies, managers, etc.
5. Ignoring Emotions
By ignoring emotions, you miss out on the benefit of understanding them.
Knowing why you feel as you do helps with finding a solution.
If you can barely sleep thinking about your portfolio? You should probably rethink the strategy...
6. Thinking is not Solving
Thinking about an emotion over and over again is not the same as solving it.
Solving is about drawing consequences and creating systems to overcome quick judgment.
7. Four Steps to Emotional Agility
Step 1: Label Your Emotions
Write them down. Be honest and specific.
Step 2: Accept Your Emotions
Think about your emotions as if it's a good friend telling you about his. You'd understand.
Step 3: View Your Emotions Objectively
Extract from your emotion and look at the situation isolated. Is your initial reaction justified?
Journaling helps to dissect and learn from past experiences. (For Kahneman, an investment journal is the key for every investor).
Step 4: Choose Your Values
What are your guiding principles? What person do you want to be? How would that person act and decide?
In an investing framework: What's your investing philosophy? How do I structure my investing process as rationally as possible? What would Buffett do? (just a joke, or is it... 😉 )
8. Routines
Use routines to stay on track and prevent falling back into old, bad habits
The more routines you have the less time for your brain to wander to unhealthy places.
tweet