Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
Silver attempting the breakout at $30 again
Up 26% since the 1st of March.
tweet
Silver attempting the breakout at $30 again
Up 26% since the 1st of March.
SILVER
A break above $30 and this gets very interesting.
$42 is the target then. https://t.co/E2YzGYX1KR tweet
Antonio Linares
Some reflections on the overall performance of my portfolio:
1. $TSLA: despite the heavy declines recently, my position is up 10X since 2016. So long as $TSLA continues to compound faster than anyone else on the manufacturing, energy and AI curves combined I will continue to hold.
2. $AMD: also despite the latest decline from the $210 area, my position is up 36X since 2014. I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but I am pleased to finally see $AMD's Edge AI business begin to rear its head. This business is a blue ocean / trillion $ opportunity for $AMD.
3. $SPOT: the position is up ~3X to date. I am happy to see the company shifting its focus towards efficiency and profitability and I believe this will send the company's FCF/share levels much higher over the next year or two. Inevitably, $SPOT will have to go back to focusing on growth, but over a long holding period we will see many shifts from growth to profitability and back. $SPOT is getting close to returning my entire portfolio at this point.
4. $PLTR: the position is up ~2X to date. Again, I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but it is clear to me that unit economics are improving as $PLTR continues to rapidly productize Foundry. Fast forward a year or two, the focus on productization should see $PLTR's FCF/share levels increase meaningfully, leaving the company at the doorstep of becoming a platform.
5. $HIMS: I'm glad I moved the money from my two mistakes ( $BB, $GPRO) into this company. The position is actually down ~13% from my point of entry, but having reviewed Q1 I am very impressed with the level of execution of this company. They continue to reinvest more and more capital into the business, as they effectively sole a growing volume of acute customer pains in a way that is increasingly harder to imitate, at scale. At present I believe the stock is considerably undervalued, due to the fact that the market still believes $HIMS is not a very defensible business.
$AMZN CEO Andy Jassy's comments about the pharmacy business in Q4 2023 suggest otherwise. I think the market is wrong here:
"[…] if you think about what we do on the retail side, adding a pharmacy capability is a pretty natural extension. It's something that customers had asked us for many years, and it's got more complexity to it than the rest of our retail business."
In aggregate, the investments that I've made since 2020 have performed very well, especially as I made the $PLTR and $SPOT positions larger during the past few years, which were filled with pessimism. This is despite the losses in $GPRO and $BB, which were not negligeable as were the losses from $AMRS, but nonetheless small enough in hindsight.
I believe this is just the beginning for all the companies mentioned above and so I expect the portfolio to perform very well over the coming 5 years. There's no telling what the stocks will do, but I believe the FCF/share levels of the mentioned companies will trend up and to the right, with the stocks eventually following suit.
tweet
Some reflections on the overall performance of my portfolio:
1. $TSLA: despite the heavy declines recently, my position is up 10X since 2016. So long as $TSLA continues to compound faster than anyone else on the manufacturing, energy and AI curves combined I will continue to hold.
2. $AMD: also despite the latest decline from the $210 area, my position is up 36X since 2014. I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but I am pleased to finally see $AMD's Edge AI business begin to rear its head. This business is a blue ocean / trillion $ opportunity for $AMD.
3. $SPOT: the position is up ~3X to date. I am happy to see the company shifting its focus towards efficiency and profitability and I believe this will send the company's FCF/share levels much higher over the next year or two. Inevitably, $SPOT will have to go back to focusing on growth, but over a long holding period we will see many shifts from growth to profitability and back. $SPOT is getting close to returning my entire portfolio at this point.
4. $PLTR: the position is up ~2X to date. Again, I will discuss this in more depth in the Q1 update, but it is clear to me that unit economics are improving as $PLTR continues to rapidly productize Foundry. Fast forward a year or two, the focus on productization should see $PLTR's FCF/share levels increase meaningfully, leaving the company at the doorstep of becoming a platform.
5. $HIMS: I'm glad I moved the money from my two mistakes ( $BB, $GPRO) into this company. The position is actually down ~13% from my point of entry, but having reviewed Q1 I am very impressed with the level of execution of this company. They continue to reinvest more and more capital into the business, as they effectively sole a growing volume of acute customer pains in a way that is increasingly harder to imitate, at scale. At present I believe the stock is considerably undervalued, due to the fact that the market still believes $HIMS is not a very defensible business.
$AMZN CEO Andy Jassy's comments about the pharmacy business in Q4 2023 suggest otherwise. I think the market is wrong here:
"[…] if you think about what we do on the retail side, adding a pharmacy capability is a pretty natural extension. It's something that customers had asked us for many years, and it's got more complexity to it than the rest of our retail business."
In aggregate, the investments that I've made since 2020 have performed very well, especially as I made the $PLTR and $SPOT positions larger during the past few years, which were filled with pessimism. This is despite the losses in $GPRO and $BB, which were not negligeable as were the losses from $AMRS, but nonetheless small enough in hindsight.
I believe this is just the beginning for all the companies mentioned above and so I expect the portfolio to perform very well over the coming 5 years. There's no telling what the stocks will do, but I believe the FCF/share levels of the mentioned companies will trend up and to the right, with the stocks eventually following suit.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Giuliano
It’s very curious that Freud used a very similar metaphor as Kahneman, though for another thing. https://t.co/FLKyRe27Hz
tweet
It’s very curious that Freud used a very similar metaphor as Kahneman, though for another thing. https://t.co/FLKyRe27Hz
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Offshore
Photo
Giuliano
Unbelievably grateful to all of you who take some time to read mostly nonsensical thoughts.
Thank you for the encouragement and hope you find something interesting! https://t.co/oLCbfO6fwZ
tweet
Unbelievably grateful to all of you who take some time to read mostly nonsensical thoughts.
Thank you for the encouragement and hope you find something interesting! https://t.co/oLCbfO6fwZ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
RT @StockMKTNewz: Amazon Web Services (AWS) $AMZN is now a $100 Billion annual run rate business https://t.co/XeY7L6igWr
tweet
RT @StockMKTNewz: Amazon Web Services (AWS) $AMZN is now a $100 Billion annual run rate business https://t.co/XeY7L6igWr
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Long Investor
PE Ratios at Bear Market Bottoms throughout history
Average is 11.7
Markets current PE ratio is 29.7
$SPY https://t.co/8G3kpX0sYr
tweet
PE Ratios at Bear Market Bottoms throughout history
Average is 11.7
Markets current PE ratio is 29.7
$SPY https://t.co/8G3kpX0sYr
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Q-Cap
Ford just hired the ex-CFO of Lucid.
A SPAC darling down -75% since IPO. https://t.co/1Awu0O0wDG
tweet
Ford just hired the ex-CFO of Lucid.
A SPAC darling down -75% since IPO. https://t.co/1Awu0O0wDG
tweet
Antonio Linares
Deca-baggers require vision!
Can it be taught though?
tweet
Deca-baggers require vision!
Can it be taught though?
@alc2022 You need to have vision for your investment. This has been a key learning for in the past couple years. tweet
twitter.com
undefined
undefined
Offshore
Photo
Brandon Beylo
I'm excited to share my podcast with Doug Ramshaw (@dougcan), CEO of $MAI.V.
We spent 90 minutes diving deep on:
• How to build a profitable mining company
• How to analyze projects
• Stewarding shareholder money
• AISCs and IRRs
And more!
Enjoy 👇
https://t.co/ReTLePxTSL
tweet
I'm excited to share my podcast with Doug Ramshaw (@dougcan), CEO of $MAI.V.
We spent 90 minutes diving deep on:
• How to build a profitable mining company
• How to analyze projects
• Stewarding shareholder money
• AISCs and IRRs
And more!
Enjoy 👇
https://t.co/ReTLePxTSL
tweet
Antonio Linares
Largely underestimated by most.
For instance, what can my $AMD investment be worth in 30 years if the company continues to do well for that period of time?
Billions of $?
tweet
Largely underestimated by most.
For instance, what can my $AMD investment be worth in 30 years if the company continues to do well for that period of time?
Billions of $?
@alc2022 The effect of "Power Law" tweet
twitter.com
undefined
undefined