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The Kobeissi Letter
The market hit severely oversold levels last week:
Last week, the S&P 500 traded 3 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, the most since the start of the 2022 bear market.
This is also the second-largest divergence since the 2020 pandemic.
On Friday, after rallying 2.1%, the index closed ~5.5% below its 50-day moving average.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 has traded below its 200-day moving average for 5 straight days, the longest streak since October 2023.
In the past, such an extreme divergence has not lasted long, and the market has seen at least a short-term recovery.
Is the market setting up for a bounce?
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The market hit severely oversold levels last week:
Last week, the S&P 500 traded 3 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, the most since the start of the 2022 bear market.
This is also the second-largest divergence since the 2020 pandemic.
On Friday, after rallying 2.1%, the index closed ~5.5% below its 50-day moving average.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 has traded below its 200-day moving average for 5 straight days, the longest streak since October 2023.
In the past, such an extreme divergence has not lasted long, and the market has seen at least a short-term recovery.
Is the market setting up for a bounce?
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Finding Compounders
Over the past 26 years Tom Russo has returned. 15.5% annually .
He answers how he chooses an appropriate discount rate. https://t.co/oADlqdPxCb
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Over the past 26 years Tom Russo has returned. 15.5% annually .
He answers how he chooses an appropriate discount rate. https://t.co/oADlqdPxCb
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Sage $SGE LN
Thesis: Sage is a leading software provider for SMBs that is poised for accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion through strategic product innovation and cloud migration.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/w0iFWDbmSF
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Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Sage $SGE LN
Thesis: Sage is a leading software provider for SMBs that is poised for accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion through strategic product innovation and cloud migration.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/w0iFWDbmSF
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The US Consumer Sentiment Index fell 6.8 points to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022.
This was well below consensus estimates of 63.0 points.
This also marked the third-consecutive monthly decline for a total 16.1 points.
The decline was particularly driven by consumer expectations about the economy which dropped 9.8 points, to 54.2, the lowest since July 2022.
To put this into perspective, in 2008 the Consumer Sentiment Index bottomed at 55.3, or just 2.6 points below current levels.
Many Americans believe the economy is in a recession.
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BREAKING: The US Consumer Sentiment Index fell 6.8 points to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022.
This was well below consensus estimates of 63.0 points.
This also marked the third-consecutive monthly decline for a total 16.1 points.
The decline was particularly driven by consumer expectations about the economy which dropped 9.8 points, to 54.2, the lowest since July 2022.
To put this into perspective, in 2008 the Consumer Sentiment Index bottomed at 55.3, or just 2.6 points below current levels.
Many Americans believe the economy is in a recession.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The SURGE in emotional investing:
Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has moved an average of $600 BILLION per trading day.
Sentiment in crypto has plummeted from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed in 6 weeks.
Are you capitalizing on the swings in market "emotion?"
(a thread) https://t.co/vtmDQP4pKG
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The SURGE in emotional investing:
Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has moved an average of $600 BILLION per trading day.
Sentiment in crypto has plummeted from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed in 6 weeks.
Are you capitalizing on the swings in market "emotion?"
(a thread) https://t.co/vtmDQP4pKG
tweet
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Finding Compounders
Tom Gayner explains how he defines paying a fair price in a Value Investor Insight interview back in 2011.
Source: Value Investor Insight https://t.co/V9SaGkLdQz
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Tom Gayner explains how he defines paying a fair price in a Value Investor Insight interview back in 2011.
Source: Value Investor Insight https://t.co/V9SaGkLdQz
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The Kobeissi Letter
Americans are pessimistic about the job market as if there is a crisis:
The index of US consumers’ unemployment expectations over the next 12 months tumbled to ~50 points, the lowest since 2008.
Over the past 3 months, this metric has dropped by ~45%, one of the sharpest declines on record.
In the past, such low readings have only been seen during recessions.
Meanwhile, the underemployment rate jumped 0.5 percentage points in February, to 8.0%, the highest since October 2021.
The labor market is clearly weakening.
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Americans are pessimistic about the job market as if there is a crisis:
The index of US consumers’ unemployment expectations over the next 12 months tumbled to ~50 points, the lowest since 2008.
Over the past 3 months, this metric has dropped by ~45%, one of the sharpest declines on record.
In the past, such low readings have only been seen during recessions.
Meanwhile, the underemployment rate jumped 0.5 percentage points in February, to 8.0%, the highest since October 2021.
The labor market is clearly weakening.
The SURGE in emotional investing:
Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has moved an average of $600 BILLION per trading day.
Sentiment in crypto has plummeted from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed in 6 weeks.
Are you capitalizing on the swings in market "emotion?"
(a thread) https://t.co/vtmDQP4pKG tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.”
— Isaac Newton 🗣️ (South Sea bubble)
Newton’s quote nails the PSYCHOLOGY of INVESTING 🧠:
Euphoria drives folks to chase trends blindly, ignoring fundamentals👇🏽
The South Sea Bubble of 1720 was a speculative frenzy in Britain where the South Sea Company, granted a monopoly to trade with South America, saw its stock soar from £100 to nearly £1,000 based on wild promises of riches—despite little actual trade
When reality hit (no profits, just hype), the stock crashed, wiping out fortunes, including Isaac Newton’s
The lesson?
Greed and herd mentality can cloud even the sharpest minds—stick to what you can measure, not what the crowd screams
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RT @DimitryNakhla: “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.”
— Isaac Newton 🗣️ (South Sea bubble)
Newton’s quote nails the PSYCHOLOGY of INVESTING 🧠:
Euphoria drives folks to chase trends blindly, ignoring fundamentals👇🏽
The South Sea Bubble of 1720 was a speculative frenzy in Britain where the South Sea Company, granted a monopoly to trade with South America, saw its stock soar from £100 to nearly £1,000 based on wild promises of riches—despite little actual trade
When reality hit (no profits, just hype), the stock crashed, wiping out fortunes, including Isaac Newton’s
The lesson?
Greed and herd mentality can cloud even the sharpest minds—stick to what you can measure, not what the crowd screams
tweet
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AkhenOsiris
Wiz is asking for 30% more in half a year, good for them. The space is hot, what about public cos OKTA, CYBR, RBRK, etc at much lower market caps?
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Wiz is asking for 30% more in half a year, good for them. The space is hot, what about public cos OKTA, CYBR, RBRK, etc at much lower market caps?
ALPHABET BACK IN TALKS TO ACQUIRE WIZ FOR ~$30B – WSJ
Google parent Alphabet is in advanced discussions to buy cloud security startup Wiz for around $30 billion, per WSJ. Talks had previously fallen apart at $23B last summer over regulatory concerns.
If finalized, this would be one of 2025’s biggest tech deals, but could still face regulatory scrutiny. Wiz partners with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google in the cloud security space. - Wall St Enginetweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris International Small Cap Strategy on Sopra Steria $SOP FP
Thesis: Sopra Steria is a leading European IT services company undergoing a strategic transition towards higher-margin digital services, supported by a strong balance sheet and healthy growth prospects despite current market uncertainties.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Harris International Small Cap Strategy on Sopra Steria $SOP FP
Thesis: Sopra Steria is a leading European IT services company undergoing a strategic transition towards higher-margin digital services, supported by a strong balance sheet and healthy growth prospects despite current market uncertainties.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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