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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Japan’s base pay for workers jumped 3.1% year-over-year in January, the most in 32 years.
Wages excluding bonuses and overtime rose 3.0%, the most since July 2024.
Japanese salary increases have accelerated over the past year as their labor market has tightened.
Additionally, their inflation rate surged to 4.0% in January, the highest in 2 years.
This is supportive of another Bank of Japan rate hike which may come as early as May 1st.
Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen ~40 basis points YTD to 1.5%, the highest since June 2009.
More rate hikes are coming in Japan.
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BREAKING: Japan’s base pay for workers jumped 3.1% year-over-year in January, the most in 32 years.
Wages excluding bonuses and overtime rose 3.0%, the most since July 2024.
Japanese salary increases have accelerated over the past year as their labor market has tightened.
Additionally, their inflation rate surged to 4.0% in January, the highest in 2 years.
This is supportive of another Bank of Japan rate hike which may come as early as May 1st.
Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen ~40 basis points YTD to 1.5%, the highest since June 2009.
More rate hikes are coming in Japan.
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
The market is pricing in a recession:
The S&P 500 has decreased -2% since Fed rate cuts begin in September 2024.
Historically speaking, the S&P 500 gains +1%, on average, in the 6 months after rate cuts begin.
In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months.
The maximum average drawdown in a downturn scenario has been 15% within 8 months.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has rallied +10% within 6 months and +15% within a year on average if a recession was avoided.
The Fed has a tough job ahead.
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The market is pricing in a recession:
The S&P 500 has decreased -2% since Fed rate cuts begin in September 2024.
Historically speaking, the S&P 500 gains +1%, on average, in the 6 months after rate cuts begin.
In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months.
The maximum average drawdown in a downturn scenario has been 15% within 8 months.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has rallied +10% within 6 months and +15% within a year on average if a recession was avoided.
The Fed has a tough job ahead.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump will be signing multiple Executive Orders on Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET. https://t.co/2GB4nBFGNj
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BREAKING: President Trump will be signing multiple Executive Orders on Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET. https://t.co/2GB4nBFGNj
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Another day, another record high in gold.
This doesn’t happen in “normal and healthy” markets. https://t.co/GkjKBvUTfA
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Another day, another record high in gold.
This doesn’t happen in “normal and healthy” markets. https://t.co/GkjKBvUTfA
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Alvin
I have to say that after trying Infinix's XOS 15 and TECNO's HiOS 15, they have stepped up their games in the software department.
HiOS 15 is a bit more polished, but both are "inspired by this and that" Android skin to me (OPPO's icons, vivo's OriginOS UI elements, Xiaomi's UI elements on some system apps, etc).
Even the Infinix Note 50 Series has wallpapers that look so similar to the Galaxy S24 Series, lol.
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I have to say that after trying Infinix's XOS 15 and TECNO's HiOS 15, they have stepped up their games in the software department.
HiOS 15 is a bit more polished, but both are "inspired by this and that" Android skin to me (OPPO's icons, vivo's OriginOS UI elements, Xiaomi's UI elements on some system apps, etc).
Even the Infinix Note 50 Series has wallpapers that look so similar to the Galaxy S24 Series, lol.
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Alvin
This is the new Tecno Camon 40.
This $160 phone has a main camera sensor that is as big as phones like the Galaxy S25, at 1/1.56".
It also has a feature called FlashSnap that allows you to easily capture fast-moving subjects.
Aside from that, the specs are actually promising for a phone in its class.
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This is the new Tecno Camon 40.
This $160 phone has a main camera sensor that is as big as phones like the Galaxy S25, at 1/1.56".
It also has a feature called FlashSnap that allows you to easily capture fast-moving subjects.
Aside from that, the specs are actually promising for a phone in its class.
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