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The Kobeissi Letter
Just as 2025 couldn't get more unusual:
EVERYTHING is green today aside from the Magnificent 7 stocks, and the S&P 500 is up +35 points.
Is the market's rally finally broadening? https://t.co/NGtqv1szfT
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Just as 2025 couldn't get more unusual:
EVERYTHING is green today aside from the Magnificent 7 stocks, and the S&P 500 is up +35 points.
Is the market's rally finally broadening? https://t.co/NGtqv1szfT
tweet
Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Retail investors are buying the dip:
Retail purchases of US stocks & ETFs reached ~$3.2 BILLION on Monday and Tuesday last week, the biggest 2-day purchase since August.
In 5 days ending Tuesday, individual investors bought a whopping $8 billion worth of equities.
As a result, the 5-day moving average of retail flows hit $1.6 billion, the 4th largest on record.
The only other periods with a larger 5-day average of retail buying were January 2021, March 2023, and August 2024.
Retail is betting on a bottom.
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Retail investors are buying the dip:
Retail purchases of US stocks & ETFs reached ~$3.2 BILLION on Monday and Tuesday last week, the biggest 2-day purchase since August.
In 5 days ending Tuesday, individual investors bought a whopping $8 billion worth of equities.
As a result, the 5-day moving average of retail flows hit $1.6 billion, the 4th largest on record.
The only other periods with a larger 5-day average of retail buying were January 2021, March 2023, and August 2024.
Retail is betting on a bottom.
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris Global Concentrated Strategy on Capgemini $CAP FP
Thesis: Capgemini is a leading global IT services company well-positioned for growth due to its strong digital transformation capabilities and attractive asset-lite business model, despite facing short-term challenges.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Harris Global Concentrated Strategy on Capgemini $CAP FP
Thesis: Capgemini is a leading global IT services company well-positioned for growth due to its strong digital transformation capabilities and attractive asset-lite business model, despite facing short-term challenges.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Kobeissi Letter
The market hit severely oversold levels last week:
Last week, the S&P 500 traded 3 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, the most since the start of the 2022 bear market.
This is also the second-largest divergence since the 2020 pandemic.
On Friday, after rallying 2.1%, the index closed ~5.5% below its 50-day moving average.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 has traded below its 200-day moving average for 5 straight days, the longest streak since October 2023.
In the past, such an extreme divergence has not lasted long, and the market has seen at least a short-term recovery.
Is the market setting up for a bounce?
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The market hit severely oversold levels last week:
Last week, the S&P 500 traded 3 standard deviations below its 50-day moving average, the most since the start of the 2022 bear market.
This is also the second-largest divergence since the 2020 pandemic.
On Friday, after rallying 2.1%, the index closed ~5.5% below its 50-day moving average.
Furthermore, the S&P 500 has traded below its 200-day moving average for 5 straight days, the longest streak since October 2023.
In the past, such an extreme divergence has not lasted long, and the market has seen at least a short-term recovery.
Is the market setting up for a bounce?
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Finding Compounders
Over the past 26 years Tom Russo has returned. 15.5% annually .
He answers how he chooses an appropriate discount rate. https://t.co/oADlqdPxCb
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Over the past 26 years Tom Russo has returned. 15.5% annually .
He answers how he chooses an appropriate discount rate. https://t.co/oADlqdPxCb
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Sage $SGE LN
Thesis: Sage is a leading software provider for SMBs that is poised for accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion through strategic product innovation and cloud migration.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/w0iFWDbmSF
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Artisan Global Discovery Strategy on Sage $SGE LN
Thesis: Sage is a leading software provider for SMBs that is poised for accelerating revenue growth and margin expansion through strategic product innovation and cloud migration.
(Extract from their Q4 letter) https://t.co/w0iFWDbmSF
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: The US Consumer Sentiment Index fell 6.8 points to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022.
This was well below consensus estimates of 63.0 points.
This also marked the third-consecutive monthly decline for a total 16.1 points.
The decline was particularly driven by consumer expectations about the economy which dropped 9.8 points, to 54.2, the lowest since July 2022.
To put this into perspective, in 2008 the Consumer Sentiment Index bottomed at 55.3, or just 2.6 points below current levels.
Many Americans believe the economy is in a recession.
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BREAKING: The US Consumer Sentiment Index fell 6.8 points to 57.9 in March, the lowest since November 2022.
This was well below consensus estimates of 63.0 points.
This also marked the third-consecutive monthly decline for a total 16.1 points.
The decline was particularly driven by consumer expectations about the economy which dropped 9.8 points, to 54.2, the lowest since July 2022.
To put this into perspective, in 2008 the Consumer Sentiment Index bottomed at 55.3, or just 2.6 points below current levels.
Many Americans believe the economy is in a recession.
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
The SURGE in emotional investing:
Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has moved an average of $600 BILLION per trading day.
Sentiment in crypto has plummeted from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed in 6 weeks.
Are you capitalizing on the swings in market "emotion?"
(a thread) https://t.co/vtmDQP4pKG
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The SURGE in emotional investing:
Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has moved an average of $600 BILLION per trading day.
Sentiment in crypto has plummeted from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed in 6 weeks.
Are you capitalizing on the swings in market "emotion?"
(a thread) https://t.co/vtmDQP4pKG
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