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Finding Compounders
Tom Gayner explains how he defines paying a fair price in a Value Investor Insight interview back in 2011.
Source: Value Investor Insight https://t.co/V9SaGkLdQz
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Tom Gayner explains how he defines paying a fair price in a Value Investor Insight interview back in 2011.
Source: Value Investor Insight https://t.co/V9SaGkLdQz
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Offshore
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The Kobeissi Letter
Americans are pessimistic about the job market as if there is a crisis:
The index of US consumers’ unemployment expectations over the next 12 months tumbled to ~50 points, the lowest since 2008.
Over the past 3 months, this metric has dropped by ~45%, one of the sharpest declines on record.
In the past, such low readings have only been seen during recessions.
Meanwhile, the underemployment rate jumped 0.5 percentage points in February, to 8.0%, the highest since October 2021.
The labor market is clearly weakening.
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Americans are pessimistic about the job market as if there is a crisis:
The index of US consumers’ unemployment expectations over the next 12 months tumbled to ~50 points, the lowest since 2008.
Over the past 3 months, this metric has dropped by ~45%, one of the sharpest declines on record.
In the past, such low readings have only been seen during recessions.
Meanwhile, the underemployment rate jumped 0.5 percentage points in February, to 8.0%, the highest since October 2021.
The labor market is clearly weakening.
The SURGE in emotional investing:
Since February 19th, the S&P 500 has moved an average of $600 BILLION per trading day.
Sentiment in crypto has plummeted from Extreme Fear to Extreme Greed in 6 weeks.
Are you capitalizing on the swings in market "emotion?"
(a thread) https://t.co/vtmDQP4pKG tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.”
— Isaac Newton 🗣️ (South Sea bubble)
Newton’s quote nails the PSYCHOLOGY of INVESTING 🧠:
Euphoria drives folks to chase trends blindly, ignoring fundamentals👇🏽
The South Sea Bubble of 1720 was a speculative frenzy in Britain where the South Sea Company, granted a monopoly to trade with South America, saw its stock soar from £100 to nearly £1,000 based on wild promises of riches—despite little actual trade
When reality hit (no profits, just hype), the stock crashed, wiping out fortunes, including Isaac Newton’s
The lesson?
Greed and herd mentality can cloud even the sharpest minds—stick to what you can measure, not what the crowd screams
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RT @DimitryNakhla: “I can calculate the motion of heavenly bodies but not the madness of people.”
— Isaac Newton 🗣️ (South Sea bubble)
Newton’s quote nails the PSYCHOLOGY of INVESTING 🧠:
Euphoria drives folks to chase trends blindly, ignoring fundamentals👇🏽
The South Sea Bubble of 1720 was a speculative frenzy in Britain where the South Sea Company, granted a monopoly to trade with South America, saw its stock soar from £100 to nearly £1,000 based on wild promises of riches—despite little actual trade
When reality hit (no profits, just hype), the stock crashed, wiping out fortunes, including Isaac Newton’s
The lesson?
Greed and herd mentality can cloud even the sharpest minds—stick to what you can measure, not what the crowd screams
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AkhenOsiris
Wiz is asking for 30% more in half a year, good for them. The space is hot, what about public cos OKTA, CYBR, RBRK, etc at much lower market caps?
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Wiz is asking for 30% more in half a year, good for them. The space is hot, what about public cos OKTA, CYBR, RBRK, etc at much lower market caps?
ALPHABET BACK IN TALKS TO ACQUIRE WIZ FOR ~$30B – WSJ
Google parent Alphabet is in advanced discussions to buy cloud security startup Wiz for around $30 billion, per WSJ. Talks had previously fallen apart at $23B last summer over regulatory concerns.
If finalized, this would be one of 2025’s biggest tech deals, but could still face regulatory scrutiny. Wiz partners with Amazon, Microsoft, and Google in the cloud security space. - Wall St Enginetweet
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Harris International Small Cap Strategy on Sopra Steria $SOP FP
Thesis: Sopra Steria is a leading European IT services company undergoing a strategic transition towards higher-margin digital services, supported by a strong balance sheet and healthy growth prospects despite current market uncertainties.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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Harris International Small Cap Strategy on Sopra Steria $SOP FP
Thesis: Sopra Steria is a leading European IT services company undergoing a strategic transition towards higher-margin digital services, supported by a strong balance sheet and healthy growth prospects despite current market uncertainties.
(Extract from their Q4 letter)
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: Japan’s base pay for workers jumped 3.1% year-over-year in January, the most in 32 years.
Wages excluding bonuses and overtime rose 3.0%, the most since July 2024.
Japanese salary increases have accelerated over the past year as their labor market has tightened.
Additionally, their inflation rate surged to 4.0% in January, the highest in 2 years.
This is supportive of another Bank of Japan rate hike which may come as early as May 1st.
Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen ~40 basis points YTD to 1.5%, the highest since June 2009.
More rate hikes are coming in Japan.
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BREAKING: Japan’s base pay for workers jumped 3.1% year-over-year in January, the most in 32 years.
Wages excluding bonuses and overtime rose 3.0%, the most since July 2024.
Japanese salary increases have accelerated over the past year as their labor market has tightened.
Additionally, their inflation rate surged to 4.0% in January, the highest in 2 years.
This is supportive of another Bank of Japan rate hike which may come as early as May 1st.
Meanwhile, Japan's 10-year government bond yield has risen ~40 basis points YTD to 1.5%, the highest since June 2009.
More rate hikes are coming in Japan.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The market is pricing in a recession:
The S&P 500 has decreased -2% since Fed rate cuts begin in September 2024.
Historically speaking, the S&P 500 gains +1%, on average, in the 6 months after rate cuts begin.
In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months.
The maximum average drawdown in a downturn scenario has been 15% within 8 months.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has rallied +10% within 6 months and +15% within a year on average if a recession was avoided.
The Fed has a tough job ahead.
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The market is pricing in a recession:
The S&P 500 has decreased -2% since Fed rate cuts begin in September 2024.
Historically speaking, the S&P 500 gains +1%, on average, in the 6 months after rate cuts begin.
In the case of rate cuts during a recession, the S&P 500 declined -6% in 6 months -10% within 12 months.
The maximum average drawdown in a downturn scenario has been 15% within 8 months.
By comparison, the S&P 500 has rallied +10% within 6 months and +15% within a year on average if a recession was avoided.
The Fed has a tough job ahead.
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The Kobeissi Letter
BREAKING: President Trump will be signing multiple Executive Orders on Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET. https://t.co/2GB4nBFGNj
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BREAKING: President Trump will be signing multiple Executive Orders on Tuesday at 3:30 PM ET. https://t.co/2GB4nBFGNj
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The Kobeissi Letter
Another day, another record high in gold.
This doesn’t happen in “normal and healthy” markets. https://t.co/GkjKBvUTfA
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Another day, another record high in gold.
This doesn’t happen in “normal and healthy” markets. https://t.co/GkjKBvUTfA
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Alvin
I have to say that after trying Infinix's XOS 15 and TECNO's HiOS 15, they have stepped up their games in the software department.
HiOS 15 is a bit more polished, but both are "inspired by this and that" Android skin to me (OPPO's icons, vivo's OriginOS UI elements, Xiaomi's UI elements on some system apps, etc).
Even the Infinix Note 50 Series has wallpapers that look so similar to the Galaxy S24 Series, lol.
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I have to say that after trying Infinix's XOS 15 and TECNO's HiOS 15, they have stepped up their games in the software department.
HiOS 15 is a bit more polished, but both are "inspired by this and that" Android skin to me (OPPO's icons, vivo's OriginOS UI elements, Xiaomi's UI elements on some system apps, etc).
Even the Infinix Note 50 Series has wallpapers that look so similar to the Galaxy S24 Series, lol.
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