Offshore
Photo
Bamboo
RT @oluwadamisi: I'm grateful for apps like @investbamboo the fact that folks can invest in US stocks from naija is truly a blessing, i remember when i started reading books on investment & businesses as far back as 03, all we had was the NSE. Now Investing in orgs I've read about is so cool...
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RT @oluwadamisi: I'm grateful for apps like @investbamboo the fact that folks can invest in US stocks from naija is truly a blessing, i remember when i started reading books on investment & businesses as far back as 03, all we had was the NSE. Now Investing in orgs I've read about is so cool...
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Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Dick Fuld , Lehman’s former CEO, on the cover of BusinessWeek in 2001
If only they knew
Source : financegoldenera https://t.co/I9LYskDEOn
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Dick Fuld , Lehman’s former CEO, on the cover of BusinessWeek in 2001
If only they knew
Source : financegoldenera https://t.co/I9LYskDEOn
tweet
Offshore
Video
Quiver Quantitative
🚨 Just released a new dashboard tracking politicians' fundraising.
It tracks which candidates different companies are funding, and who is donating the most.
Look up a politician to see their corporate donors.
Please share, the more eyes on the data the better.
The fundraising data is collected from FEC filings, and race ratings for members of Congress are provided with permission by The Cook Political Report via its API.
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🚨 Just released a new dashboard tracking politicians' fundraising.
It tracks which candidates different companies are funding, and who is donating the most.
Look up a politician to see their corporate donors.
Please share, the more eyes on the data the better.
The fundraising data is collected from FEC filings, and race ratings for members of Congress are provided with permission by The Cook Political Report via its API.
tweet
Kaushik
Citi - We now expect the Fed to start the cutting cycle with 50bp rate cuts in September and November, followed by 25bp cuts at each subsequent meeting until reaching a policy rate of 3-3.25% by mid-2025
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Citi - We now expect the Fed to start the cutting cycle with 50bp rate cuts in September and November, followed by 25bp cuts at each subsequent meeting until reaching a policy rate of 3-3.25% by mid-2025
Citi - Fed to start with 50bp cuts in rapidly weakening labor market tweet
twitter.com
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Offshore
Photo
Finding Compounders
Just released a newsletter post on Value Traps.
It’s a great read
Link to the newsletter is in my bio https://t.co/I4Jul5srS1
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Just released a newsletter post on Value Traps.
It’s a great read
Link to the newsletter is in my bio https://t.co/I4Jul5srS1
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Yesterday I suggested that $AMZN was a good consideration at $187💵
Today, following its Q2 Report, $AMZN fell ~9% … As I stated:
“18.51x P/OCF*: $299.97💵 … ~21% CAGR
17.00x P/OCF*: $262.48💵 … ~17% CAGR
16.19x P/OCF*: $275.55💵 … ~15% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what it’s trading for today, a multiple it hasn’t treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential…
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:
☁️AWS revenue: $25.03B
📈Ads revenue: $11.82B
Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $187💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”
#stocks #investing
___
When investing in stocks, it's essential to remember that prices don't always rise immediately
What sets quality investors apart from emotional ones is how they respond after a decline
It's crucial to approach investments calmly and strategically, piecing into positions over time
For instance, my research indicated that $AMZN was an good investment opportunity at $187💵; now, at $167💵, it's even more compelling
Unless you perfectly time the market every time – which is unrealistic – you'll inevitably face periods of losses
To succeed, you must become comfortable with temporary setbacks and resist the emotional triggers of fear and greed, which can cloud your judgment
Emotional discipline is vital to becoming a great investor 🧘🏽♂️"
A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.70x
•15-Year Mean: 24.41x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.95%
•10-Year Mean: 2.84%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in operating cash flow & ~4% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $85.07B
•Long-Term Debt: $64.13B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 33x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 12.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 20.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.57B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 8.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 6.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in OCF & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.37 (40% YoY)
2025E: $13.61 (20% YoY)
2026E: $16.21 (19% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.21 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.51[...]
Yesterday I suggested that $AMZN was a good consideration at $187💵
Today, following its Q2 Report, $AMZN fell ~9% … As I stated:
“18.51x P/OCF*: $299.97💵 … ~21% CAGR
17.00x P/OCF*: $262.48💵 … ~17% CAGR
16.19x P/OCF*: $275.55💵 … ~15% CAGR
As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what it’s trading for today, a multiple it hasn’t treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate
I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential…
AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:
☁️AWS revenue: $25.03B
📈Ads revenue: $11.82B
Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)
Today at $187💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”
#stocks #investing
___
When investing in stocks, it's essential to remember that prices don't always rise immediately
What sets quality investors apart from emotional ones is how they respond after a decline
It's crucial to approach investments calmly and strategically, piecing into positions over time
For instance, my research indicated that $AMZN was an good investment opportunity at $187💵; now, at $167💵, it's even more compelling
Unless you perfectly time the market every time – which is unrealistic – you'll inevitably face periods of losses
To succeed, you must become comfortable with temporary setbacks and resist the emotional triggers of fear and greed, which can cloud your judgment
Emotional discipline is vital to becoming a great investor 🧘🏽♂️"
A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽♂️
•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.70x
•15-Year Mean: 24.41x
•NTM FCF Yield: 2.95%
•10-Year Mean: 2.84%
As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued
Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in operating cash flow & ~4% MORE in FCF per share🧠***
Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business
BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $85.07B
•Long-Term Debt: $64.13B
$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 33x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio
RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 12.6%
RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 20.3%
$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business
REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%
FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%
NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%
SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.57B
MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 8.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 6.4%
*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability
***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠
As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in OCF & ~4% MORE in FCF per share
We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph
Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:
2024E: $11.37 (40% YoY)
2025E: $13.61 (20% YoY)
2026E: $16.21 (19% YoY)
$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.21 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):
18.51[...]