x P/E: $299.97💵 … ~21.59% CAGR

17.00x P/E: $262.48💵 … ~17.40% CAGR

16.19x P/E: $275.55💵 … ~15.06% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what it’s trading for today, a multiple it hasn’t treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate

I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential:

2024E: $61.31B (66.6% YoY)
2025E: $76.44B (24.7% YoY)
2026E: $101.22B (32.4% YoY)
2027E: $119.59B (18.1% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:

☁️AWS revenue: $25.03B
📈Ads revenue: $11.82B

Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $187💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Yesterday I suggested that $AMZN was a good consideration at $187💵

Today, following its Q2 Report, $AMZN fell ~9% … As I stated:

“18.51x P/OCF*: $299.97💵 … ~21% CAGR

17.00x P/OCF*: $262.48💵 … ~17% CAGR

16.19x P/OCF*: $275.55💵 … ~15% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what it’s trading for today, a multiple it hasn’t treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate

I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential…

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:

☁️AWS revenue: $25.03B
📈Ads revenue: $11.82B

Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $187💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment”

#stocks #investing
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When investing in stocks, it's essential to remember that prices don't always rise immediately

What sets quality investors apart from emotional ones is how they respond after a decline

It's crucial to approach investments calmly and strategically, piecing into positions over time

For instance, my research indicated that $AMZN was an good investment opportunity at $187💵; now, at $167💵, it's even more compelling

Unless you perfectly time the market every time – which is unrealistic – you'll inevitably face periods of losses

To succeed, you must become comfortable with temporary setbacks and resist the emotional triggers of fear and greed, which can cloud your judgment

Emotional discipline is vital to becoming a great investor 🧘🏽‍♂️
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲."

A sober valuation analysis on $AMZN 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/OCF Ratio: 18.70x
•15-Year Mean: 24.41x

•NTM FCF Yield: 2.95%
•10-Year Mean: 2.84%

As you can see, $AMZN appears to be slightly undervalued

Going forward, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in operating cash flow & ~4% MORE in FCF per share🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $AMZN is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Equivalents: $85.07B
•Long-Term Debt: $64.13B

$AMZN has an excellent balance sheet, an AA S&P Credit Rating & 33x FFO Interest Coverage Ratio

RETURN ON CAPITAL🆗 / ✅
•2019: 10.4%
•2020: 11.6%
•2021: 8.9%
•2022: 4.2%
•2023: 10.1%
•LTM: 12.6%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 21.9%
•2020: 27.4%
•2021: 28.8%
•2022: (1.9%)
•2023: 17.5%
•LTM: 20.3%

$AMZN has solid return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2018: $232.89B
•2023: $574.79B
•CAGR: 19.80%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2018: $17.30B
•2023: $32.22B
•CAGR: 13.24%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2018: $1.01
•2023: $2.90
•CAGR: 23.48%

S[...]

HARE BUYBACKS❌
•2018 Shares Outstanding: 10.00B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 10.57B

MARGINS🆗➡️✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 47.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 8.0%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 6.4%

*Important for $AMZN to continue expanding margins & increase profitability

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~30% MORE in OCF & ~4% MORE in FCF per share

We're using P/OCF instead of P/E because Amazon's (AMZN) share price has historically shown a stronger correlation with Operating Cash Flow (OCF), as evident in the first attached graph

Today, analysts anticipate aggressive OCF (per share) growth between 2024 - 2026:

2024E: $11.37 (40% YoY)
2025E: $13.61 (20% YoY)
2026E: $16.21 (19% YoY)

$AMZN has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $AMZN ends 2026 with $16.21 in OCF per share & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples (photos attached below also include these CAGR estimates):

18.51x P/E: $299.97💵 … ~21.59% CAGR

17.00x P/E: $262.48💵 … ~17.40% CAGR

16.19x P/E: $275.55💵 … ~15.06% CAGR

As you can see, $AMZN appears to have aggressive double-digit CAGR potential if we assume ~16x P/OCF, a multiple well-below what it’s trading for today, a multiple it hasn’t treaded for since 2010, and a multiple below what may be justified given its growth rate

I also believe that the market is under-appreciating $AMZN FCF growth potential:

2024E: $61.31B (66.6% YoY)
2025E: $76.44B (24.7% YoY)
2026E: $101.22B (32.4% YoY)
2027E: $119.59B (18.1% YoY)

AWS & Amazon Ads will continue to drive growth & profitability. In $AMZN Q1 2024 report:

☁️AWS revenue: $25.03B
📈Ads revenue: $11.82B

Combined, these segments generated $36.85B net revenue (annualized = $147.4B … with ~37% Operating Income Margin)

Today at $187💵 $AMZN appears to be a good consideration for investment

#stocks #investing

Data: TIKR
Graphs: FAST Graphs
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene bought CrowdStrike stock, $CRWD, last month.

It has fallen 40% since then.

So far one of the worst trades we've ever seen: https://t.co/J971WwFtDM
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⁠Quiver Quantitative
Nancy Pelosi lost another $1.5M in the stock market today, per our estimates.

She has lost approximately $13M in the last two weeks. https://t.co/WC8RvxfiOK
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⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
"Real risk and perceived risk are two different things. People perceive risk to be high when prices are low, and they perceive risk to be low when prices are high. That is the psychologoical problem that people have."

— Bill Miller 🗣️

#stocks #investing
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This quote highlights a crucial aspect of investing: the disconnect between real risk and perceived risk. It's fascinating to see how market sentiment can flip on its head, with investors becoming cautious when prices are low and eager to buy when prices are high. This psychological phenomenon can lead to missed opportunities and costly mistakes

By understanding this, you can cultivate a contrarian mindset, seeking value when others see risk and exercising caution when others are reckless. It's a timeless lesson that helps investors navigate the markets with clarity and confidence
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⁠Capital Employed
Lots of interesting Japanese stock ideas here...

Some crazy moves in Japan the last 2 days.

Interest rate hike and move towards 'normalisation' of... 0.25% 😅 seems to have had a ripple effect. I'm seeing names which should be benefiting from this down heavily today.
Leads me to believe some of the yen carry trade is being unwound as things are being sold indiscriminately.

One thing that I'm still wary is that this could continue some more.... Even on twitter there seems to be too much 'buy the dip' vibes. There needs to be more fear and despair - I'm not sure we're there yet... (This applies to Japan fintwit too, although there it's already a lot more negative)

Now it's probably not this hike alone that people are anticipating but potentially more - if they do how much more of this type of reaction will we see?

Obvs I'm not the head of macro - all I know is that thee will be some interesting opportunities.

I normally don't like to do this since its so rought but I thought I'll share a list of names that I like which you might be interested in. I own some of these and some I'm following closely. Some are very rough ideas but I'm sharing them anyways so please make sure to do your own due diligence. Some of them I've written on the S-stack.

I also hope to be sharing a new idea for my Paid Subscribers hopefully this weekend! - Made in Japan 🇯🇵
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AkhenOsiris
Congrats to all you long only monkeys, you are just a few short weeks ago from no longer fighting the Fed. Your performance must have been terrible fighting them all this time 🙄
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AkhenOsiris
Is there any reason the higher income cohort $AXP is down 7% while $V and $MA are flat?
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AkhenOsiris
Can we give the most important central bank in the world a little early access? It's less than 2 days! Goodness

From @carlquintanilla:

JPMORGAN:". Had the Fed had this [jobsl report in hand going into the FOMC meeting this past Wednesday, it almost certainly would have cut the policy rate by at least 25bp. Now that it looks to be materially behind the curve, we expect a 50bp cut at the September meeting, followed by another 50bp cut in November." [Feroli]

Main lesson here is give Powell the goddamn jobs data when it's just 2 days between Fed meeting and NFP day 😂 - AkhenOsiris
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