โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
10 Wide Moat Stocks With NTM FCF Yield % > 10-Year Mean | Balance Sheet & Credit Rating ๐Ÿ’ต

๐Ÿ’ณ Visa $V
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 4.00%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 3.83%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $17.70B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $20.60B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: AA-

๐Ÿ“ฆ Amazon $AMZN
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 3.18%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 2.84%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $85.07B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $64.13B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: AA

๐Ÿ“Š Salesforce $CRM
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.13%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 3.13%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $17.67B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $8.43B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: A+

โ™Ÿ๏ธ Accenture $ACN
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.71%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 5.18%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $5.13B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $71.64M
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: A+

๐Ÿฉณ Lululemon $LULU
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 3.83%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 2.16%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $0
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: n/a

๐Ÿ“ธ Meta Platforms $META
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 3.86%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 3.28%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $58.12B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $18.38B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: AA-

๐Ÿฉป Elevance Health $ELV
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 7.64%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 7.54%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $37.63B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $21.97B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: A

๐Ÿ‘œ Moรซt Hennessy & LV $MC $LVMH
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 4.43%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 4.14%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $12.46B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $12.50B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: AA-

๐Ÿ’ธ Automatic Data Processing $ADP
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.63%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 4.50%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $3.29B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $2.99B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: AA-

๐Ÿฉน Johnson & Johnson $JNJ
โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 6.51%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 5.66%
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $26.21B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $25.08B
โ€ขS&P Credit Rating: AAA

#stocks #investing
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
2 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $LULU

Since then, $LULU popped +16% after reporting better than expected quarterly result

As I stated in my analysis:

โ€œ$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone

I donโ€™t believe itโ€™s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth โ€” $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 ๐Ÿคฏ)

Today at $300๐Ÿ’ต $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment โ€” albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closelyโ€

#stocks #investing
_______

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ."

A sober valuation analysis on $LULU ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.14x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 35.94x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 3.80%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 2.16%

As you can see, $LULU appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~70% MORE in earnings per share & ~75% MORE in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $LULU is a good business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
โ€ขTotal Debt: $1.40B

$LULU has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2020: 32.5%
โ€ข2021: 23.8%
โ€ข2022: 37.4%
โ€ข2023: 40.4%
โ€ข2024: 39.0%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2020: 38.0%
โ€ข2021: 26.1%
โ€ข2022: 36.8%
โ€ข2023: 29.0%
โ€ข2024: 42.0%

$LULU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2014: $1.59B
โ€ข2024: $9.62B
โ€ขCAGR: 19.72%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2014: $171.93M
โ€ข2024: $1.64B
โ€ขCAGR: 25.33%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2014: $1.91
โ€ข2024: $12.77
โ€ขCAGR: 20.92%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2014 Shares Outstanding: 146.04M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 127.06M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~13%, $LULU increased its EPS by ~15% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 58.3%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 22.9%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 16.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~70% MORE in EPS & ~75% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $LULU has to grow earnings at a 10.57% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over next few years to be slightly above the (10.57%) required growth rate:

2025E: $14.16 (10.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $15.86 (12.0% YoY)

$LULU has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $LULU ends 2026 with $15.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

25x P/E: $396.50๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~19.2% CAGR

24x P/E: $380.64๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~16.2% CAGR

23x P/E: $364.78๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~13.1% CAGR

22x P/E: $348.92๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.0% CAGR

As you can see, $[...]
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ 2 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $LULU Since then, $LULU popped +16% after reporting better than expected quarterly result As I stated in my analysis: โ€œ$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF itโ€ฆ
LULU appears to have attractive return potential IF it can demand a >22x multiple

However, itโ€™s important to keep in mind that itโ€™s difficult to maintain a strong competitive advantage (over long periods of time) in the athletic apparel space & recent growth concerns amid increased competition is why $LULU stock is trading near the lowest end of its historical multiple range

$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone

I donโ€™t believe itโ€™s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth โ€” $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 ๐Ÿคฏ)

Today at $300๐Ÿ’ต $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment โ€” albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closely

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
RT @HangmanTrades: I donโ€™t respect many traders on X 90% are fake screenshots, discord pumpers, delete tweets. This guy is one of the 3 or 4 Iโ€™ve found who are legit

2 weeks ago I shared my โ€œsober valuation analysis ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธโ€ on $LULU

Since then, $LULU popped +16% after reporting better than expected quarterly result

As I stated in my analysis:

โ€œ$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone

I donโ€™t believe itโ€™s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth โ€” $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 ๐Ÿคฏ)

Today at $300๐Ÿ’ต $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment โ€” albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closelyโ€

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
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Offshore
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A sober valuation analysis on $PYPL ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 15.37x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 31.06x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 10.09%
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 5.08%

As you can see, $PYPL appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~102% MORE in earnings per share & ~98% MORE in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $PYPL is a good business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $14.06B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $9.68B

$PYPL has an excellent balance sheet, an A- S&P Credit Rating, & 16.16x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2019: 12.4%
โ€ข2020: 11.5%
โ€ข2021: 13.6%
โ€ข2022: 12.7%
โ€ข2023: 14.8%
โ€ขLTM: 15.7%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2019: 15.2%
โ€ข2020: 22.7%
โ€ข2021: 20.0%
โ€ข2022: 11.5%
โ€ข2023: 20.5%
โ€ขLTM: 21.4%

$PYPL has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2018: $15.45B
โ€ข2023: $29.77B
โ€ขCAGR: 14.01%

FREE CASH FLOWโŒ*
โ€ข2018: $4.66B
โ€ข2023: $4.22B
โ€ขDecrease: (9.44%)

*FCF in 2017 was $1.86B, so FCF rose ~150% in 2018 start date (โ€œnormalizingโ€ the decline above)

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2018: $2.42
โ€ข2023: $5.10
โ€ขCAGR: 16.07%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2015 Shares Outstanding: 1.23B
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 1.09B

By reducing its shares outstanding by 11.3%, $PYPL increased its EPS by 12.7% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 39.6%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 16.7%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 14.3%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~102% MORE in EPS & ~98% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $PYPL has to grow earnings at a 7.69% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly below the (7.69%) required growth rate:

2024E: $4.12 (-19.1% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $4.56 (10.6% YoY)
2026E: $5.00 (9.7% YoY)

$PYPL has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, but letโ€™s assume $PYPL ends 2026 with $5.00 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

18x P/E: $90.00๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~17.00% CAGR

17x P/E: $85.00๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~14.4% CAGR

16x P/E: $80.00๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~11.7% CAGR

As you can see, $PYPL appears to have attractive return potential if we assume >16 earnings & aggressive return potential if we assume >18x earnings

The ๐Ÿ”‘ isn't a mean reversion in $PYPL's multiple, but a modest increase (still below its historical average) - a reasonable and safe assumption

Thereโ€™s still a ton of negative sentiment around $PYPL and this sentiment can be flipped in just a few quarters if management continues to make progress towards its goals

I believe they will โ€” however, investors concerned with the โ€œturnaround risksโ€ associated with $PYPL can still benefit by allocating a smaller % to $PYPL

Today at $66๐Ÿ’ต $PYPL appears to be a strong consideration for investment (albeit, with some turnaround risks & competitive risks)

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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AkhenOsiris
Bank of America analysts predict a multi-year boom for the semiconductor industry, fueled by the surging demand for artificial intelligence.

The bank said in a note that observations from Computex, a tech trade show, highlight a global push towards AI across various sectors.

"We see the semiconductor industry is set for multi-year growth, with the tech titans being all in for AI at Computex," states BofA.

They highlight the increasing presence of AI in everything from data centers to edge computing, PCs, and smartphones. BofA believes this will necessitate larger semiconductor dies to handle the growing volume of data and processing power required for AI applications.

The rapid pace of innovation underscores this demand. "The relentless compute demand rise can be reflected in AMD's and NVIDIA's fast product development cadence of one year," adds BofA.
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AkhenOsiris
Copy/pasta from 300, 400, 500, 600, 700, 800, 900, 1000, 1100

Make sure to buy todays 1% dip in nvda, itโ€™s the gift of a lifetime - HeadofMicroCapital
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AkhenOsiris
RT @trader_53: *ALPHABET APPOINTMENT OF ANAT ASHKENAZI AS NEW CFO

Ah, so Lilly loses the CFO to Alphabet $GOOG
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โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
10 Quality Stocks That Consistently Achieved ROIC >20% ANNUALLY For The Last 10 Years ๐Ÿ’ธ

๐Ÿš˜ Copart $CPRT
โ€ขNTM P/E: 34.23x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 32.22x

๐Ÿ’ฝ Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM
โ€ขNTM P/E: 24.58x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 21.25x

๐ŸŠ๐Ÿผโ€โ™‚๏ธ Pool Corp $POOL
โ€ขNTM P/E: 26.42x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 29.54x

๐Ÿ’ณ Mastercard $MA
โ€ขNTM P/E: 30.45x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 35.36x

๐Ÿข NVR Inc $NVR
โ€ขNTM P/E: 15.46x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 14.50x

๐Ÿš› Old Dominion Freight Line $ODFL
โ€ขNTM P/E: 27.34x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 28.82x

๐Ÿ’ฐ Automatic Data Processing $ADP
โ€ขNTM P/E: 25.53x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 28.11x

๐ŸŽ Apple $AAPL
โ€ขNTM P/E: 28.51x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 25.80x

๐Ÿ”ฉ Fastenal $FAST
โ€ขNTM P/E: 30.63x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 29.05x

๐Ÿฉณ Lululemon $LULU
โ€ขNTM P/E: 22.08x
โ€ข5-Year Mean: 42.17x

#stocks #investing
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๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
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