⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
~2 & 1/2 months ago I shared my “sober valuation analysis 🧘🏽‍♂️” on $QLYS stating:

“Albeit, for investors that prefer to consider the downside first (as myself) the current assumptions don’t leave us with a margin of safety

I’d become interested in $QLYS closer to 28x earnings or at $145💵 (~12.5% below todays price)

I understand I may be asking for too much on the valuation — however I don’t view it that way considering competition in the sector & $QLYS slowdown in growth which could lead to a re-rating in its multiple”

Since then, $QLYS dropped ~18% & is currently trading at $134.73💵, slightly below my $145💵 target

While I remain interested in $QLYS, I'm hesitant to add shares at present due to the competitive landscape, sector slowdown, preference to own $FTNT & $PANW over $QLYS, and the availability of other attractive opportunities in the market that have a wider moat

#stocks #investing"

A sober valuation analysis on $QLYS 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 32.03x
•5-Year Mean: 37.39x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.58%
•5-Year Mean: 3.63%

As you can see, $QLYS appears to be trading slightly below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~17% MORE in earnings per share & about the same in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $QLYS is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $425.56M
•Long-Term Debt: $0

$QLYS has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 16.5%
•2020: 20.9%
•2021: 23.7%
•2022: 39.4%
•2023: 41.1%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 18.6%
•2020: 23.1%
•2021: 16.9%
•2022: 29.8%
•2023: 46.1%

$QLYS has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $107.96M
•2023: $554.46M
•CAGR: 17.77%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $11.43M
•2023: $235.82M
•CAGR: 35.34%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.20
•2023: $5.27
•CAGR: 38.70%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌ / ✅
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 35.97M
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 37.60M

However, from 2018 - 2023, $QLYS reduced its shares outstanding ~10.2%, increasing its EPS by ~11.3% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 80.6%
•LTM Operating Margins: 29.4%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 27.3%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~17% MORE in EPS & about the same in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $QLYS has to grow earnings at a 16.02% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be less than the (16.02%) required growth rate:

2024E: $5.19 (-1.5% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $5.71 (10.1% YoY)
2026E: $6.67 (16.8% YoY)

$QLYS has an excellent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $QLYS ends 2026 with $6.67 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

35x P/E: $233.45💵 … ~13.5% CAGR

32.5x P/E: $216.77💵 … ~10.4% CAGR

30x P/E: $200.10💵 … ~7.3% CAGR

As you can see, $QLYS needs to trade closer to >32.5x earnings for it to have double-digit return potential

This isn’t unreasonable given $QLYS historical valuation & financial efficiency — moreover, $QLYS has maintained fairly strong support near that 32.5x level

$QLYS appears to be a great business treading for a fair price

Albeit, for investors that prefer to consider the downside first (as myself) the current assumptions don’t leave us with a margin of safety

I’d become interested in $QLYS closer to 28x earnings or at $145💵 (~12.5% below todays price)

I understand I may be asking for too much on the valuation — however I don’t view it that way considering competition in the sector & $QLYS slowdown in growth which could lead to a re-rating in its multiple
[...]

#stocks #investing
___

𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
tweet

AkhenOsiris
RT @qcapital2020: The only logical outcome here is he becomes a Billionaire, gets arrested for market manipulation, the apes storm prison to save him, riots break out everywhere, the FED cut rates to zero, New President Trump gives him a presidential pardon, he becomes new FED chairman. $GME
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Analyzing why See’s Candy was one of Berkshire’s greatest investments (acquired for $25M, meanwhile the company has earned over $2B pre-tax), Warren Buffett writes:

“The company had a huge asset that did not appear on its balance sheet: a broad and durable competitive advantage that gave it significant pricing power”

— 2014 Berkshire Shareholder Letter 📝

Your assessment of a company’s competitive advantage and its durability is one of the most critical factors when investing ‼️

#stocks #investing
tweet

⁠Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
10 Quality Stocks 2018-2023 EPS CAGR | >10% EPS Growth (Estimates) In 2025 & 2026 | LTM ROIC 💵

🎨 Sherwin-Williams $SHW
•EPS CAGR: 10.86%
•2025E: $12.72 (11.5% YoY)
•2026E: $14.26 (12.1% YoY)
•ROIC: 21.6%

💳 Visa $V
•EPS CAGR: 13.72%
•2025E: $11.19 (12.4% YoY)
•2026E: $12.66 (13.1% YoY)
•ROIC: 34.7%

🧬 Thermo Fisher $TMO
•EPS CAGR: 14.14%
•2025E: $24.34 (12.1% YoY)
•2026E: $27.16 (11.6% YoY)
•ROIC: 8.9%

🔬 Danaher $DHR
•EPS CAGR: 10.89%
•2025E: $8.75 (14.8% YoY)
•2026E: $9.70 (10.9% YoY)
•ROIC: 7.2%

🏊🏻‍♀️ Pool Corp $POOL
•EPS CAGR: 18.58%
•2025E: $14.40 (10.3% YoY)
•2026E: $15.90 (10.4% YoY)
•ROIC: 26.2%

🚛 Old Dominion Freight $ODFL
•EPS CAGR: 18.00%
•2025E: $7.14 (18.7% YoY)
•2026E: $7.88 (10.5% YoY)
•ROIC: 33.9%

💵 PayPal $PYPL
•EPS CAGR: 16.07%
•2025E: $4.56 (10.6% YoY)
•2026E: $5.02 (10.0% YoY)
•ROIC: 15.7%

💸 Mastercard $MA
•EPS CAGR: 13.56%
•2025E: $16.59 (16.3% YoY)
•2026E: $19.36 (16.7% YoY)
•ROIC: 64.1%

🖱️ Alphabet $GOOG $GOOGL
•EPS CAGR: 21.50%
•2025E: $8.55 (13.6% YoY)
•2026E: $9.77 (14.2% YoY)
•ROIC: 30.2%

🐶 Zoetis $ZTS
•EPS CAGR: 11.19%
•2025E: $6.38 (10.6% YoY)
•2026E: $7.02 (10.0% YoY)
•ROIC: 26.2%

#stocks #investing
tweet

AkhenOsiris
$NVDA

Nvidia is a “generational opportunity” that could grow to become 10-15% of the S&P 500 index, Evercore ISI analysts said.

Nvidia is not just a semiconductor company but an “ecosystem play” set to lead the age of parallel processing. “driven by an every 15-20 year Tectonic Shift in Computing."

Analysts posit that Nvidia's current breakout above $1,000 per share has "unlocked the door" for the stock to hit as high as $1,500, a projection supported by the strong performance of the Semiconductor Index, which has risen by 87% since October 2023, though still short of the historic tech bubble surge.

Evercore's analysis indicates that Nvidia's growth is far from reaching its peak, with the firm outlining a base case for Nvidia's earnings per share (EPS) power in 2030 at $69, and a bull case reaching $82.

This projection “could be conservative if 2030 prospective “start date” for Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) materializes,” the note states.

It also highlights that while high-profile stock splits often fuel short-term volatility, they also “reset the generational buying opportunity, time after time.” Nvidia's upcoming 10:1 stock split is expected to be a catalyst for a temporary surge followed by a strategic buying opportunity for patient investors.
tweet

AkhenOsiris
$NVDA

Barclays raises target from $120 to $145
tweet

AkhenOsiris
$SNOW INSIDER BUY

Director Speiser Michael bought $9,989,012 worth of shares (76,200 shares at $131.09)
tweet

AkhenOsiris
$SHOP

JPM initiates at Overweight, price target $74
tweet

AkhenOsiris
$ZS

Zscaler today announced a collaboration with NVIDIA to accelerate AI-powered copilot technologies. Zscaler will leverage NVIDIA AI technologies to deliver new user experience and security-centric copilot services to the enterprise. The introduction of new AI capabilities, leveraging NVIDIA NIM inference microservices, NVIDIA NeMo Guardrails, and the NVIDIA Morpheus framework, will dramatically increase the ability to process data from the Zero Trust Exchange platform, further enhancing Zscaler copilot's ability to proactively defend enterprises against cyber threats and simplify IT and network operations.
tweet

AkhenOsiris
$AAPL volume about to cross daily avg, heavy interest...the cheeky mofos at Apple bored us yest to unleash the fireworks 🎇 today
tweet

AkhenOsiris
RT @fundam_inv: $CFLT Init at Evercore

The Flow Goes On; Initiate at OP & $35 PT

Launching coverage with $35 price target – attractive SMID-cap story with upside. We believe CFLT is the runaway market leader in the nascent $60bn+ (and growing) data streaming market, and we remain in the early innings of companies leveraging real-time data across their organizations as part of their data modernization and GenAI strategies. We believe the shift towards Confluent Cloud and the number of underappreciated growth levers (e.g., Flink, DSPs) will drive revenue reacceleration to 25%+ in FY25 alongside margin expansion, making CFLT a ‘Rule of 40+’ company by FY26. Our $35 PT is based on shares trading to 9.5x EV / CY25 revenue, in line with other ‘growth’ software companies, as the company continues to execute and management guidance and Street estimates move higher
tweet