Offshore
AkhenOsiris $APP Part 2 However, accurately valuing consumers playing games for offers that aren’t games requires predicting an even more complex chain of behaviors. We have to predict ad engagement, click-through rates, app or site engagement, conversion…
. We grew our businesses together over many years. But as we expanded beyond gaming into e-commerce and other categories, I began working with a broader set of founders, operators, and marketers.

One consistent theme in these conversations is that despite our scale, many potential customers do not fully understand how our business model actually works. There are very few examples of scaled advertising businesses like ours that do not rely on owning a consumer traffic property, so the confusion is understandable.

As a result, I still hear the same questions surprisingly often. Are we focused only on gaming? Are we large enough to matter? And does advertising on Axon expand purchaser behavior beyond what advertisers already achieve through social platforms?

I am proud of what we have built and the impact our advertising solutions deliver, so this post is meant to provide a clear and direct explanation of how the Axon engine works and why it is critical for advertisers. Going forward, we’ll post more regularly on business, product, engineering, and culture topics.

The scale of the opportunity
Here is the reality. Advertisers on our platform are currently spending well over $11 billion dollars annually on media, and that number has grown meaningfully since we disclosed it in Q1 2025. To put that into perspective, advertisers spend more on AppLovin than they do on Pinterest, Snapchat, and Reddit combined. More importantly, the vast majority of dollars on our platform are spent on a performance basis. Advertisers are acquiring customers and generating revenue that exceeds their advertising costs. If they do not, spend stops immediately. This distinction matters. Axon is not optimized for budgets or reach. It is optimized for advertiser profit.

Most Axon ads are delivered through our own mediation platform. MAX reaches over one billion daily active users. This audience consists primarily of adults who play casual mobile games such as Candy Crush, Solitaire, Mahjong, and Crossword games. The social power user is not the same user as the user playing a puzzle or a crossword. This creates space to reach this different consumer and create more shopping intent than would be possible if only focused on social.

Understanding our inventory
Given the strength of Axon, we are a major player in the MAX auction. The ad impressions we win are exclusive to us, and benefit solely the advertisers on our platform. If an advertiser is not buying through Axon, they are missing access to a significant portion of premium mobile supply.

This leads to a fundamental misunderstanding regarding DSPs (demand side platforms). Occasionally, an advertiser will tell me they are already accessing our inventory via a third-party DSP. Our business is likely larger than most of the DSPs combined. Access to inventory on MAX reflects competitive auction outcomes; said differently, when our advanced models predict high purchaser intent, it’s very unlikely that any other bidder can bid as competitively as us for that user. This closed loop between supply, demand, and optimization is one of the primary reasons our advertising opportunity for our partners has grown so much in the past couple of years.

The power of Axon 2
For most of our history, Axon focused primarily on games. That was not a strategic limitation; it was a choice to stay focused while we built our technical capabilities. We became experts in helping game developers grow their businesses, and that focus, paired with technology, helped us become the largest user acquisition channel for mobile gaming in the world. - AkhenOsiris tweet
Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
$APP
https://t.co/IOYQ9TypVO

The Axon business model
Adam Foroughi, CEO
I have been spending a lot more time with advertisers lately. For most of my time leading AppLovin, my closest relationships were with gaming executives. We grew our businesses together over many years. But as we expanded beyond gaming into e-commerce and other categories, I began working with a broader set of founders, operators, and marketers.

One consistent theme in these conversations is that despite our scale, many potential customers do not fully understand how our business model actually works. There are very few examples of scaled advertising businesses like ours that do not rely on owning a consumer traffic property, so the confusion is understandable.

As a result, I still hear the same questions surprisingly often. Are we focused only on gaming? Are we large enough to matter? And does advertising on Axon expand purchaser behavior beyond what advertisers already achieve through social platforms?

I am proud of what we have built and the impact our advertising solutions deliver, so this post is meant to provide a clear and direct explanation of how the Axon engine works and why it is critical for advertisers. Going forward, we’ll post more regularly on business, product, engineering, and culture topics.

The scale of the opportunity
Here is the reality. Advertisers on our platform are currently spending well over $11 billion dollars annually on media, and that number has grown meaningfully since we disclosed it in Q1 2025. To put that into perspective, advertisers spend more on AppLovin than they do on Pinterest, Snapchat, and Reddit combined. More importantly, the vast majority of dollars on our platform are spent on a performance basis. Advertisers are acquiring customers and generating revenue that exceeds their advertising costs. If they do not, spend stops immediately. This distinction matters. Axon is not optimized for budgets or reach. It is optimized for advertiser profit.

Most Axon ads are delivered through our own mediation platform. MAX reaches over one billion daily active users. This audience consists primarily of adults who play casual mobile games such as Candy Crush, Solitaire, Mahjong, and Crossword games. The social power user is not the same user as the user playing a puzzle or a crossword. This creates space to reach this different consumer and create more shopping intent than would be possible if only focused on social.

Understanding our inventory
Given the strength of Axon, we are a major player in the MAX auction. The ad impressions we win are exclusive to us, and benefit solely the advertisers on our platform. If an advertiser is not buying through Axon, they are missing access to a significant portion of premium mobile supply.

This leads to a fundamental misunderstanding regarding DSPs (demand side platforms). Occasionally, an advertiser will tell me they are already accessing our inventory via a third-party DSP. Our business is likely larger than most of the DSPs combined. Access to inventory on MAX reflects competitive auction outcomes; said differently, when our advanced models predict high purchaser intent, it’s very unlikely that any other bidder can bid as competitively as us for that user. This closed loop between supply, demand, and optimization is one of the primary reasons our advertising opportunity for our partners has grown so much in the past couple of years.

The power of Axon 2
For most of our history, Axon focused primarily on games. That was not a strategic limitation; it was a choice to stay focused while we built our technical capabilities. We became experts in helping game developers grow their businesses, and that focus, paired with technology, helped us become the largest user acquisition channel for mobile gaming in the world.
tweet
AkhenOsiris
When a winner is established (or at least not a loser) amongst the massive pile of carcasses, the rerating just back to where it was would be a monster ripper.

Lord fucking knows who comes out unscathed, I keep scratching my head on some names yet they only go down down down
tweet
AkhenOsiris
I miss all those YTD returns, where all you motherfuckers
tweet
AkhenOsiris
OpenAI $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $ORCL

OpenAI’s rivals are cutting into ChatGPT’s lead. The top chatbot’s market share fell from 69.1% to 45.3% between January 2025 and January 2026 among daily U.S. users of its mobile app. Gemini, in the same time period, rose from 14.7% to 25.1% and Grok rose from 1.6% to 15.2%.

The data, obtained by Big Technology from mobile insights firm Apptopia, indicates the chatbot race has tightened meaningfully over the past year with Google’s surge showing up in the numbers. Overall, the chatbot market increased 152% since last January, according to Apptopia, with ChatGPT exhibiting healthy download growth.

On desktop and mobile web, a similar pattern appears, according to analytics firm Similarweb. Visits to ChatGPT went from 3.8 billion to 5.7 billion between January 2025 and January 2026, a 50% increase, while visits to Gemini went from 267.7 million to 2 billion, a 647% increase. ChatGPT is still far and away the leader in visits, but it has company in the race now.

“ChatGPT showed really strong growth for most of 2025,” said David Carr, insights news and research editor at Similarweb. “That said, we did see a ChatGPT traffic dip in November / December, which coincided with a growth spurt for Gemini. Preliminary data for January show ChatGPT traffic recovering but not back to its peak of 6 billion + visits in October. And Gemini continues to grow strongly, up another 17% month over month based on a preliminary estimate for January.”

h/t @Kantrowitz
tweet
Offshore
Photo
AkhenOsiris
Make it make sense 🦍

👀 quick excerpts from ETR Macro Views (h/t @mdsmaldon)

- 2026 IT spend growth = highest reading since Jan *2022*

- software spending +4.0%

- cloud spending +7.9%

- data on ROI and mix of AI in-house vs vendor-made

https://t.co/TRGF2fSy0p https://t.co/9YHpj6c8Kr
- Matt Harney
tweet
AkhenOsiris
Anthropic went for legal sw today....OnlyFans tomorrow ☠️
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Chips & SaaS
RT @firstadopter: FOUND IT! https://t.co/g0nGzeFkz0

I remember a decades-old interview with Druckenmiller where he said when companies start investing in building factories and spending capex on a stronger economy, it takes capital away from financial markets and assets, so it’s bad for stocks. Is that what’s happening now?
- tae kim
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
AMD Q4 Revenue Growth by Category

Data Center +39%
Client +34%
Gaming +50%
Embedded +3%

$AMD: -4.2% after hours https://t.co/ASWhB1kJsa
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Fiscal.ai
AMD just crossed $10B in quarterly revenue for the first time ever.

"We are entering 2026 with strong momentum across our business, led by accelerating adoption of our high-performance EPYC and Ryzen CPUs and the rapid scaling of our data center AI franchise.”

$AMD https://t.co/q2uHFbapei
tweet
Offshore
Photo
Brady Long
RT @thisguyknowsai: Grok 4.1 is dangerously good.

But 99% of people are sleeping on what it can actually do.

I’ve used it to build apps, generate content, automate deep research, and more.

Here are 10 ways to use Grok 4.1 that feel like cheating: https://t.co/yuv0eryEDY
tweet
Offshore
Photo
App Economy Insights
$AMD AMD Q4 FY25:

• Revenue +34% Y/Y to $10.3B ($0.6B beat).
• Operating margin 17% (+6pp Y/Y).
• Non-GAAP EPS $1.53 ($0.21 beat).
• Q1 FY26 rev guide ~$9.8B ($0.4B beat). https://t.co/afpWaIWa1j
tweet