Offshore
touched: [list — prove scope discipline] - Risk: [what could go wrong with this fix] - Verification: [how you'll prove it works after] - Wait for approval before implementing - If the fix is trivial and obvious (typo, missing import, wrong variable name)…
n prove your answer.
- Fix the smallest thing possible. Touch nothing else.
- A fix that creates new bugs is worse than no fix at all.
- Update LESSONS (.md) after every fix — your build agent learns from your debugging agent.
- Working code is sacred. Protect it like it's someone else's production system. - klöss tweet
- Fix the smallest thing possible. Touch nothing else.
- A fix that creates new bugs is worse than no fix at all.
- Update LESSONS (.md) after every fix — your build agent learns from your debugging agent.
- Working code is sacred. Protect it like it's someone else's production system. - klöss tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
Feels like we may be approaching capitulation across a number of quality SaaS names after today’s climactic selling — this kind of price action that often coincides with forced de-risking, exhaustion, & indiscriminate selling rather than a change in long-term business quality.
tweet
Feels like we may be approaching capitulation across a number of quality SaaS names after today’s climactic selling — this kind of price action that often coincides with forced de-risking, exhaustion, & indiscriminate selling rather than a change in long-term business quality.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
God of Prompt
RT @alex_prompter: Add this to your claude's preferences and thank me later https://t.co/3DHUrmnVRY
tweet
RT @alex_prompter: Add this to your claude's preferences and thank me later https://t.co/3DHUrmnVRY
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
RT @WealthyReadings: $PLTR showing you why 100x sales is cheaper than 10x PE $PYPL https://t.co/bCu1xvmLxH
tweet
RT @WealthyReadings: $PLTR showing you why 100x sales is cheaper than 10x PE $PYPL https://t.co/bCu1xvmLxH
tweet
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: PEG Ratios for SaaS Names Included in Yesterday’s “Massive Re-Rating” List 💵
1. $SAP 1.37
2. $ROP 1.81
3. $TYL 2.14
4. $U 1.09
5. $ADSK 1.55*
6. $CSU 0.98
7. $INTU 1.46
8. $MANH 2.54
9. $NOW 1.44
10. $ADBE 1.11
11. $CRM 1.13*
12. $DUOL 1.77
13. $DT 1.74
14. $FIG 2.96
15. $WDAY 1.04*
16. $ZM 6.25*
17. $PAYC 1.10
18. $TEAM 1.31
19. $DOCU 1.53*
20. $HUBS 1.28
___
PEG (NTM P/E ➗ 26’ - 28’ EPS CAGR Est)
*(NTM P/E ➗ 27’ - 29’ EPS CAGR Est)
tweet
RT @DimitryNakhla: PEG Ratios for SaaS Names Included in Yesterday’s “Massive Re-Rating” List 💵
1. $SAP 1.37
2. $ROP 1.81
3. $TYL 2.14
4. $U 1.09
5. $ADSK 1.55*
6. $CSU 0.98
7. $INTU 1.46
8. $MANH 2.54
9. $NOW 1.44
10. $ADBE 1.11
11. $CRM 1.13*
12. $DUOL 1.77
13. $DT 1.74
14. $FIG 2.96
15. $WDAY 1.04*
16. $ZM 6.25*
17. $PAYC 1.10
18. $TEAM 1.31
19. $DOCU 1.53*
20. $HUBS 1.28
___
PEG (NTM P/E ➗ 26’ - 28’ EPS CAGR Est)
*(NTM P/E ➗ 27’ - 29’ EPS CAGR Est)
The Massive SaaS Re-Rating: Multiple Compression from Peak to Today (Last 5 Years)
1. $SAP 46x → 23x (-50%)
2. $ROP 35x → 17x (-51%)
3. $TYL 72x → 30x (-58%)
4. $U 80x → 32x (-60%)
5. $ADSK 60x → 23x (-62%)
6. $CSU 44x → 16x (-64%)
7. $INTU 58x → 21x (-64%)
8. $MANH 94x → 29x (-69%)
9. $NOW 107x → 28x (-74%)
10. $ADBE 52x → 12x (-77%)
11. $CRM 76x → 17x (-78%)
12. $DUOL 163x → 33x (-80%)*
13. $DT 113x → 23x (-80%)
14. $FIG 585x → 113x (-81%)
15. $WDAY 90x → 17x (-81%)
16. $ZM 91x → 15x (-84%)
17. $PAYC 104x → 14x (-87%)
18. $TEAM 280x → 23x (-92%)
19. $DOCU 173x → 13x (-92%)
20. $HUBS 393x → 25x (-94%)
*Within the last year tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital® (@DimitryNakhla) on X
The Massive SaaS Re-Rating: Multiple Compression from Peak to Today (Last 5 Years)
1. $SAP 46x → 23x (-50%)
2. $ROP 35x → 17x (-51%)
3. $TYL 72x → 30x (-58%)
4. $U 80x → 32x (-60%)
5. $ADSK 60x → 23x (-62%)
6. $CSU 44x → 16x (-64%)
7. $INTU 58x → 21x (-64%)…
1. $SAP 46x → 23x (-50%)
2. $ROP 35x → 17x (-51%)
3. $TYL 72x → 30x (-58%)
4. $U 80x → 32x (-60%)
5. $ADSK 60x → 23x (-62%)
6. $CSU 44x → 16x (-64%)
7. $INTU 58x → 21x (-64%)…
Offshore
Video
Brady Long
RT @thisdudelikesAI: Lovart shipping like a hamster and I'm over here typing 47 prompts, hating all of them and then questioning life.
Lovart’s Skills agent: "Chill bro I got the whole branding/social/ecomm recipe already distilled from people who actually know what they're doing"
tweet
RT @thisdudelikesAI: Lovart shipping like a hamster and I'm over here typing 47 prompts, hating all of them and then questioning life.
Lovart’s Skills agent: "Chill bro I got the whole branding/social/ecomm recipe already distilled from people who actually know what they're doing"
Meet Lovart Skills. ✨
Packaged design instructions that take you from idea to professional visual outcomes.
Choose what you want to create, and the agent runs full workflows automatically.
Like + reply + follow – 15 lucky winners get 500 credits each! https://t.co/cpO1wqABG9 tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
We estimate that Vice President JD Vance's crypto portfolio is down $300,000 in the last 4 months.
You can track his holdings on Quiver. https://t.co/6TEmwRmBP3
tweet
We estimate that Vice President JD Vance's crypto portfolio is down $300,000 in the last 4 months.
You can track his holdings on Quiver. https://t.co/6TEmwRmBP3
tweet
Offshore
Photo
The Few Bets That Matter
$PLTR up ~9% now at 248x earnings
$PYPL down ~20% now at 7.75x earnings
That's how the market works. Accept it.
tweet
$PLTR up ~9% now at 248x earnings
$PYPL down ~20% now at 7.75x earnings
That's how the market works. Accept it.
$PLTR showing you why 100x sales is cheaper than 10x PE $PYPL https://t.co/bCu1xvmLxH tweet
Offshore
Photo
Quiver Quantitative
JUST IN: Representative Nancy Pelosi has lost $4,120,000 in the stock market today, per our estimates.
She is now worth just $273M. https://t.co/1Guox8hFuL
tweet
JUST IN: Representative Nancy Pelosi has lost $4,120,000 in the stock market today, per our estimates.
She is now worth just $273M. https://t.co/1Guox8hFuL
tweet
AkhenOsiris
$APP Part 2
However, accurately valuing consumers playing games for offers that aren’t games requires predicting an even more complex chain of behaviors. We have to predict ad engagement, click-through rates, app or site engagement, conversion likelihood, payment probability, purchase size, and repeat behavior over time outside of the contextual relevancy of games. Advertisers require Axon to give them a return. If they spend $1,000, they must generate meaningfully more than $1,000 in lifetime value. Even small inaccuracies in prediction break the economics.
In April 2023, we rolled out Axon 2. While Axon 1 performed this task well for gaming, Axon 2 significantly expanded our model capacity in gaming and unlocked every other major advertiser category. These models now predict expected value distributions many days into the future with enough precision to support real-time capital allocation across e-commerce, subscription services, and other verticals.
Attention creates intent
Performance is not only about prediction. It is also about attention.
Axon primarily delivers full-screen video ads that users cannot scroll past. Roughly half of impressions occur between game levels, and the other half are rewarded video placements where users choose to watch an ad in exchange for in-game rewards. These ads are viewed with full attention. Average watch time is over 35 seconds, and viewability is guaranteed.
What makes this format especially powerful is how different it is from where most advertising dollars have historically been spent. Search and social ads are often brief, easily skipped, and consumed passively as users scroll through feeds. Many brand messages are reduced to a few seconds of attention before disappearing.
Axon operates in an attention-rich environment. These ads are intentionally viewed, watched for extended periods of time, and give advertisers the ability to deliver a complete brand message with certainty that it will be seen.
When this level of attention is paired with Axon 2’s predictive models and massive audience scale, the result is not simply better performance. It creates a large, incremental growth opportunity for advertisers that complements search and social rather than competing with them.
Driving optimal outcomes
I have sometimes heard comparisons of us to legacy ad-tech companies, but that comparison does not hold. Many older ad-tech models relied on opaque arbitrage and misaligned incentives where revenue was driven by spreads on impressions, not by advertiser outcomes. Axon is structurally different. If advertiser performance declines, spend immediately contracts. There is no delay or budget smoothing, and the system self-corrects in real time.
Many of our advertisers are profitable, self-funded businesses where cash flow is critical. If Axon did not deliver measurable returns, these advertisers would stop spending quickly. The persistence and growth of spend is the strongest validation of the business model. Axon scales because it allows advertisers to become arbitrageurs themselves. They deploy capital, the system prices opportunity, and profits are shared.
Creating economic growth
Early in our existence, we were one of many ad networks in mobile gaming. Then we built the market’s most powerful mediation, MAX, and helped the majority of the sector monetize. Then we leveled up growth opportunities for developers with Axon 2. Now, inside mobile gaming, we are the leader in user acquisition and monetization. Without efficient advertising and monetization, many free-to-play games would not exist at their current scale. We are proud that we can see the direct impact of our innovations: revenue and profit growth at our partners' businesses, which translates into jobs and economic growth.
$APP
The Axon business model
Adam Foroughi, CEO
I have been spending a lot more time with advertisers lately. For most of my time leading AppLovin, my closest relationships were with gaming executives[...]
$APP Part 2
However, accurately valuing consumers playing games for offers that aren’t games requires predicting an even more complex chain of behaviors. We have to predict ad engagement, click-through rates, app or site engagement, conversion likelihood, payment probability, purchase size, and repeat behavior over time outside of the contextual relevancy of games. Advertisers require Axon to give them a return. If they spend $1,000, they must generate meaningfully more than $1,000 in lifetime value. Even small inaccuracies in prediction break the economics.
In April 2023, we rolled out Axon 2. While Axon 1 performed this task well for gaming, Axon 2 significantly expanded our model capacity in gaming and unlocked every other major advertiser category. These models now predict expected value distributions many days into the future with enough precision to support real-time capital allocation across e-commerce, subscription services, and other verticals.
Attention creates intent
Performance is not only about prediction. It is also about attention.
Axon primarily delivers full-screen video ads that users cannot scroll past. Roughly half of impressions occur between game levels, and the other half are rewarded video placements where users choose to watch an ad in exchange for in-game rewards. These ads are viewed with full attention. Average watch time is over 35 seconds, and viewability is guaranteed.
What makes this format especially powerful is how different it is from where most advertising dollars have historically been spent. Search and social ads are often brief, easily skipped, and consumed passively as users scroll through feeds. Many brand messages are reduced to a few seconds of attention before disappearing.
Axon operates in an attention-rich environment. These ads are intentionally viewed, watched for extended periods of time, and give advertisers the ability to deliver a complete brand message with certainty that it will be seen.
When this level of attention is paired with Axon 2’s predictive models and massive audience scale, the result is not simply better performance. It creates a large, incremental growth opportunity for advertisers that complements search and social rather than competing with them.
Driving optimal outcomes
I have sometimes heard comparisons of us to legacy ad-tech companies, but that comparison does not hold. Many older ad-tech models relied on opaque arbitrage and misaligned incentives where revenue was driven by spreads on impressions, not by advertiser outcomes. Axon is structurally different. If advertiser performance declines, spend immediately contracts. There is no delay or budget smoothing, and the system self-corrects in real time.
Many of our advertisers are profitable, self-funded businesses where cash flow is critical. If Axon did not deliver measurable returns, these advertisers would stop spending quickly. The persistence and growth of spend is the strongest validation of the business model. Axon scales because it allows advertisers to become arbitrageurs themselves. They deploy capital, the system prices opportunity, and profits are shared.
Creating economic growth
Early in our existence, we were one of many ad networks in mobile gaming. Then we built the market’s most powerful mediation, MAX, and helped the majority of the sector monetize. Then we leveled up growth opportunities for developers with Axon 2. Now, inside mobile gaming, we are the leader in user acquisition and monetization. Without efficient advertising and monetization, many free-to-play games would not exist at their current scale. We are proud that we can see the direct impact of our innovations: revenue and profit growth at our partners' businesses, which translates into jobs and economic growth.
$APP
The Axon business model
Adam Foroughi, CEO
I have been spending a lot more time with advertisers lately. For most of my time leading AppLovin, my closest relationships were with gaming executives[...]