App Economy Insights
Spotify’s top video podcasts are coming to Netflix starting early 2026. $SPOT $NFLX

Ads are slowly changing the model, and Netflix is going after YouTube's leading share of the US TV market. https://t.co/nuRqDZ7xcp
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 57 new stock write-ups to the site (pt final):
@SaeschInv (exploring AIM) - $SAA.L, $LIKE.L, $MTEC.L, $LST.L, $WINK.L, $LORD.L, $MAI.L, $LSC.L, $LDG.L, $LIV.L
@realLigerCub - $TZOO
@ridireresearch - long $GFS / short $INTC
@JRI_Podcast - $KDK.V
and more... https://t.co/A7QPNlaBIV
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: A sober valuation analysis on $MNST 🧘🏽‍♂️

•NTM P/E Ratio: 26.71x
•10-Year Mean: 33.16x

•NTM FCF Yield: 3.36%
•10-Year Mean: 3.05%

As you can see, $MNST appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~24% MORE in earnings per share & ~10% MORE in FCF per share 🧠***

Before we get into valuation, let’s take a look at why $MNST is a quality business

BALANCE SHEET✅
•Cash & Short-Term Inv: $3.56B
•Long-Term Debt: $0

$MNST has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITAL✅
•2019: 33.7%
•2020: 31.5%
•2021: 27.4%
•2022: 22.4%
•2023: 24.3%
•LTM: 24.0%

RETURN ON EQUITY✅
•2019: 28.5%
•2020: 30.2%
•2021: 23.5%
•2022: 17.5%
•2023: 21.4%
•LTM: 21.0%

$MNST has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUES✅
•2013: $2.25B
•2023: $7.14B
•CAGR: 12.24%

FREE CASH FLOW✅
•2013: $301.27M
•2023: $1.49B
•CAGR: 17.38%

NORMALIZED EPS✅
•2013: $0.34
•2023: $1.54
•CAGR: 16.30%

SHARE BUYBACKS❌
•2013 Shares Outstanding: 1.04B
•LTM Shares Outstanding: 1.05B

MARGINS✅
•LTM Gross Margins: 53.5%
•LTM Operating Margins: 28.2%
•LTM Net Income Margins: 22.8%

***NOW TO VALUATION 🧠

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~24% MORE in EPS & ~10% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Graham’s 2G rule of thumb, $MNST has to grow earnings at a 13.36% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2024 - 2026 EPS growth over the next few years to be slightly more than the (13.36%) required growth rate:

2024E: $1.78 (15.8% YoY) *FY Dec
2025E: $2.04 (14.4% YoY)
2026E: $2.31 (13.3% YoY)

$MNST has a great track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so let’s assume $MNST ends 2026 with $2.31 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

32x P/E: $73.92💵 … ~17.8% CAGR

30x P/E: $69.30💵 … ~14.8% CAGR

29x P/E: $66.99💵 … ~13.3% CAGR

28x P/E: $64.68💵 … ~11.7% CAGR

As you can see, $MNST appears to have attractive return potential EVEN if we assume 28x earnings, a multiple substantially below its 5-year mean (32.24x) & 10-year mean (33.16x)

Today at $49💵 $MNST appears to be an attractive consideration for investment

#stocks #investing
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𝐃𝐈𝐒𝐂𝐋𝐎𝐒𝐔𝐑𝐄‼️: 𝐓𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐬 𝐍𝐎𝐓 𝐈𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐀𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞. 𝐁𝐚𝐛𝐲𝐥𝐨𝐧 𝐂𝐚𝐩𝐢𝐭𝐚𝐥® 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐢𝐭𝐬 𝐫𝐞𝐩𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐞𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐞𝐬 𝐦𝐚𝐲 𝐡𝐚𝐯𝐞 𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐞𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 𝐝𝐢𝐬𝐜𝐮𝐬𝐬𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭.

𝐓𝐡𝐞 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐨𝐫 𝐢𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐚𝐥 𝐩𝐮𝐫𝐩𝐨𝐬𝐞𝐬 𝐨𝐧𝐥𝐲 𝐚𝐧𝐝 𝐬𝐡𝐨𝐮𝐥𝐝 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐛𝐞 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐬𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐢𝐧𝐯𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐦𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐚𝐝𝐯𝐢𝐜𝐞 𝐭𝐨 𝐦𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐢𝐟𝐢𝐜 𝐧𝐞𝐞𝐝𝐬 𝐨𝐟 𝐚𝐧𝐲 𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐢𝐯𝐢𝐝𝐮𝐚𝐥 𝐨𝐫 𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐮𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧. 𝐏𝐚𝐬𝐭 𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐧𝐜𝐞 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞 𝐨𝐟 𝐟𝐮𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐬𝐮𝐥𝐭𝐬.

𝐈𝐧𝐟𝐨𝐫𝐦𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐢𝐧 𝐭𝐡𝐢𝐬 𝐭𝐰𝐞𝐞𝐭 𝐡𝐚𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐞𝐧 𝐨𝐛𝐭𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐝 𝐟𝐫𝐨𝐦 𝐬𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞𝐬 𝐛𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐞𝐯𝐞𝐝 𝐭𝐨 𝐛𝐞 𝐫𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐚𝐛𝐥𝐞, 𝐛𝐮𝐭 𝐢𝐬 𝐧𝐨𝐭 𝐠𝐮𝐚𝐫𝐚𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐞𝐝 𝐚𝐬 𝐭𝐨 𝐜𝐨𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐞𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐞𝐬𝐬 𝐨𝐫 𝐚𝐜𝐜𝐮𝐫𝐚𝐜𝐲.
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Yellowbrick Investing
Number 1 rule of pumping stocks: only pump 1 stock at a time

🧵 Why I’m Long $HUT — and Why It Could Be a 100× Story by 2029

I’ve taken a long position in $HUT (Hut 8) — and I think it’s one of the most misunderstood stocks in the market.
Everyone still calls it a miner.
I see it as the energy + AI infrastructure platform that the market hasn’t caught up to yet (unlike my other 2 favorite longs IREN and CIFR).
👇 - Eric Jackson
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @DimitryNakhla: Copart is in its largest drawdown (-31%) since the 2022 bear market

Adjusted for cash, $CPRT now trades for ~23x https://t.co/4jHncAtoST
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Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capital®
RT @TheShortBear: On Bubbles.

There are certain lessons in this profession that cannot be taught, only endured. To understand the true nature of a mania, I often wish one could have lived through the final days of Bitcoin in 2017. It remains the most clarifying portrait of what it means for "everyone" to finally be in.

You could feel it.

It was the day two different taxi drivers, offered you unsolicited advice on digital gold. It was in the lecture halls, where classmates who had never spoken of markets were suddenly experts, their positions barely two weeks old.

Every last soul who joined the chorus because they heard the music from the street was, without exception, destined for ruin.

I had the discipline to buy at eight thousand and the foresight to sell near thirteen, only to watch it scream towards twenty in less than ten days.

That is the moment the true test begins. The siren's call of the crowd grows deafening, tempting you to abandon all reason and leap back into the frenzy.

A true bubble, you learn, is a relentless force.

It seeks out every corner of society, lighting the fire of FOMO in hearts that would otherwise have nothing to do with the markets. It is a contagion that travels down the chain of conviction, from the seasoned professional to the last holdout, your grandfather's taxi driver.

Only then, when the last skeptic has been converted, is the dream ready to collapse. You know you are in the presence of something more than a simple hype bubble when the social calculus shifts entirely.

It is that rare moment when holding a preposterous, heterodox idea provides you less pain than being marginalized.

When the trade is no longer about profit, but about conforming.
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Yellowbrick Investing
The only way to make money in Europe https://t.co/OyaS8OvV8z
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ToffCap
RT @ToffCap: Out with a new TMM, our weekly overview of actionable event-driven and special sits 🔥🔥

This week:

- profitable companies selling assets and returning capital
- some very intriguing merger arbs
- odd-lot provisions
- busted stocks but with insiders massively purchasing shares
- cash shells with some (upcoming) action
- a lot of activist action (one of our highest alpha generating flags)
- drugs
- small softwarecos ready to fly
- ... and much more.

As always @ToffCap

Enjoy!
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