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Yellowbrick Investing
RT @CEOStockWatcher: [Case Study] Momentum Insider Purchases $KTOS / $UAMY
Most high-signal insider purchases happen because the company is undervalued or the stock price is way down (either a turnaround play or an overreaction/short-term dip buy).
However, insiders buying a stock that is already on a tear *and* has a reasonable argument for that momentum to continue can be a very good signal that pays off very quickly.
Look at $KTOS for an example. They are a defense/government technology company with a focus on unmanned systems (drones, rockets, etc).
The CEO bought the stock twice this year - in March (up 270%) and May (up 180%). [image 1]
We'll focus on the May purchase, as the stock was already up over 25% in the two months since his March purchase and would qualify as a textbook Momentum Purchase.
First thing we always look at is the insider's history, and this CEO had a killer track record on previous purchases [image 2]. He made a handful of purchases in 2018 that were up 100%+ in 1y and a couple more in 2024 that were up 50%+ by the end of the year.
Next, looking at the company's valuation and stock price made it clear this wasn't a value/dip-buy/turnaround play, as it was not cheap and the stock was on a run. [image 3]
Now, the qualitative part begins where we craft a story as to why the momentum will continue.
For $KTOS, it boiled down to a few things:
1) The Trump admin is very favorable for defense companies
2) The Trump admin had a specific focus on drone stocks
3) KTOS was consistently winning government contracts (at least 4 in the months before the May purchase)
From reading news, press releases, and earnings transcripts, you could convincingly craft a story that the KTOS momentum would continue.
Identifying the insider trade "archetype" also helps you understand how you will trade the stock. In this case, it's a momentum play so you just hold until the momentum stops. Exactly how you do that is up to you, but it likely comes down to either a technical indicator (whichever moving average you prefer) and/or tracking earnings calls / news / press releases to see when top-line numbers slow down
Another recent example of this is $UAMY. Obviously, the US government is super-focused on rare earth elements currently, and the CEO buying $600k of the stock (largest purchase ever) on October 1st + recently signed gov contracts + Alaska permits + rev guidance was a sign that the company wasn't slowing down (up 120% in two weeks)
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RT @CEOStockWatcher: [Case Study] Momentum Insider Purchases $KTOS / $UAMY
Most high-signal insider purchases happen because the company is undervalued or the stock price is way down (either a turnaround play or an overreaction/short-term dip buy).
However, insiders buying a stock that is already on a tear *and* has a reasonable argument for that momentum to continue can be a very good signal that pays off very quickly.
Look at $KTOS for an example. They are a defense/government technology company with a focus on unmanned systems (drones, rockets, etc).
The CEO bought the stock twice this year - in March (up 270%) and May (up 180%). [image 1]
We'll focus on the May purchase, as the stock was already up over 25% in the two months since his March purchase and would qualify as a textbook Momentum Purchase.
First thing we always look at is the insider's history, and this CEO had a killer track record on previous purchases [image 2]. He made a handful of purchases in 2018 that were up 100%+ in 1y and a couple more in 2024 that were up 50%+ by the end of the year.
Next, looking at the company's valuation and stock price made it clear this wasn't a value/dip-buy/turnaround play, as it was not cheap and the stock was on a run. [image 3]
Now, the qualitative part begins where we craft a story as to why the momentum will continue.
For $KTOS, it boiled down to a few things:
1) The Trump admin is very favorable for defense companies
2) The Trump admin had a specific focus on drone stocks
3) KTOS was consistently winning government contracts (at least 4 in the months before the May purchase)
From reading news, press releases, and earnings transcripts, you could convincingly craft a story that the KTOS momentum would continue.
Identifying the insider trade "archetype" also helps you understand how you will trade the stock. In this case, it's a momentum play so you just hold until the momentum stops. Exactly how you do that is up to you, but it likely comes down to either a technical indicator (whichever moving average you prefer) and/or tracking earnings calls / news / press releases to see when top-line numbers slow down
Another recent example of this is $UAMY. Obviously, the US government is super-focused on rare earth elements currently, and the CEO buying $600k of the stock (largest purchase ever) on October 1st + recently signed gov contracts + Alaska permits + rev guidance was a sign that the company wasn't slowing down (up 120% in two weeks)
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 57 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1):
@PipelineDataLLC - $IZEA
@BlokeOak57182 - $6524.T
@carlosag_92 (quick overview) - $ASB.WA, $W7L.L, $ILP.MI
@wallstengine (analyst u/g) - $AGX, $SFM
@ChrisDeMuthJr - $SWKH
@Lindstroem_K - $CHEF.ST (more research) https://t.co/kvT6dwtX0W
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Added 57 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 1):
@PipelineDataLLC - $IZEA
@BlokeOak57182 - $6524.T
@carlosag_92 (quick overview) - $ASB.WA, $W7L.L, $ILP.MI
@wallstengine (analyst u/g) - $AGX, $SFM
@ChrisDeMuthJr - $SWKH
@Lindstroem_K - $CHEF.ST (more research) https://t.co/kvT6dwtX0W
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AkhenOsiris
RT @qcapital2020: $RACE I am 99% sure if Ferrari were to scrap the EV lineup and completely focus on ICE we would go back to all time highs https://t.co/rthX8eH4RK
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RT @qcapital2020: $RACE I am 99% sure if Ferrari were to scrap the EV lineup and completely focus on ICE we would go back to all time highs https://t.co/rthX8eH4RK
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AkhenOsiris
$ETSY partnership with OpenAI
Digiday:
It’s still early days for the partnership; three Etsy sellers told Modern Retail they were unaware of the integration until being contacted by this publication. But nearly all of the sellers who spoke with Modern Retail said that they have already spent time thinking about how AI could transform their business. Two sellers, for example, told Modern Retail they were optimistic about the OpenAI partnership, as they already use AI to tailor their Etsy storefronts. Another two worried that important details — both about the buyer and about their business — would disappear in the ChatGPT shuffle.
An Etsy spokesperson told Modern Retail that only sellers who participate in Etsy’s Offsite Ads program will have their listings included in Instant Checkout in ChatGPT. All sellers are “automatically enrolled in Offsite Ads,” per Etsy, although terms and conditions say that “some sellers are able to opt out.” Sellers in the Offsite Ads program have their products advertised across the web, then pay a fee to Etsy when making a sale from one of those ads.
One U.S. Etsy seller, who requested anonymity to speak freely for this piece, told Modern Retail they are concerned about the back end of the OpenAI integration — namely, what information sellers glean from purchases made via ChatGPT. According to Etsy’s Help page, buyers in ChatGPT check out as guests within Etsy. Buyers then have to go in and manually link their Etsy account to leave a review, message the seller or file a support ticket; the seller is afraid this will create extra hoops for Etsy users to jump through.
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$ETSY partnership with OpenAI
Digiday:
It’s still early days for the partnership; three Etsy sellers told Modern Retail they were unaware of the integration until being contacted by this publication. But nearly all of the sellers who spoke with Modern Retail said that they have already spent time thinking about how AI could transform their business. Two sellers, for example, told Modern Retail they were optimistic about the OpenAI partnership, as they already use AI to tailor their Etsy storefronts. Another two worried that important details — both about the buyer and about their business — would disappear in the ChatGPT shuffle.
An Etsy spokesperson told Modern Retail that only sellers who participate in Etsy’s Offsite Ads program will have their listings included in Instant Checkout in ChatGPT. All sellers are “automatically enrolled in Offsite Ads,” per Etsy, although terms and conditions say that “some sellers are able to opt out.” Sellers in the Offsite Ads program have their products advertised across the web, then pay a fee to Etsy when making a sale from one of those ads.
One U.S. Etsy seller, who requested anonymity to speak freely for this piece, told Modern Retail they are concerned about the back end of the OpenAI integration — namely, what information sellers glean from purchases made via ChatGPT. According to Etsy’s Help page, buyers in ChatGPT check out as guests within Etsy. Buyers then have to go in and manually link their Etsy account to leave a review, message the seller or file a support ticket; the seller is afraid this will create extra hoops for Etsy users to jump through.
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Yellowbrick Investing
Added 57 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@TheRayMyers - $ZETA (overview)
@M97Capital - $VMED.DE
@dede_eyesan - $LATO-B.ST (watchlist)
@FuzzyPandaShort - $RCAT (short)
@LaTranquillum - $TEM1V.HE
@FluentInQuality - $NWL.AX, $IVSO.ST, $HEM.ST https://t.co/TUo9kKy5Vc
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Added 57 new stock write-ups to the site (pt 2):
@TheRayMyers - $ZETA (overview)
@M97Capital - $VMED.DE
@dede_eyesan - $LATO-B.ST (watchlist)
@FuzzyPandaShort - $RCAT (short)
@LaTranquillum - $TEM1V.HE
@FluentInQuality - $NWL.AX, $IVSO.ST, $HEM.ST https://t.co/TUo9kKy5Vc
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Umesh
RT @RunwareAI: 🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁
Watch this space. Riverflow soon to drop EXCLUSIVELY on @RunwareAI!
It beats every other image editing model in the Artificial Analysis arena.
Follow and hit the bell to be the first to try the latest SOTA release.
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RT @RunwareAI: 🥁🥁🥁🥁🥁
Watch this space. Riverflow soon to drop EXCLUSIVELY on @RunwareAI!
It beats every other image editing model in the Artificial Analysis arena.
Follow and hit the bell to be the first to try the latest SOTA release.
I got early access to a mysterious new image model that THINKS
I tested it on this shot… and it beats Nano Banana! 👀
Prompt 👇 https://t.co/vBumKa45Eo tweet