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Quiver Quantitative
Another day, another all-time high for Pelosi's portfolio.
She has made $10M in the stock market in the last week week, per our estimates.
We estimate that she is now worth $271M: https://t.co/1PWbRgKWvZ
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Another day, another all-time high for Pelosi's portfolio.
She has made $10M in the stock market in the last week week, per our estimates.
We estimate that she is now worth $271M: https://t.co/1PWbRgKWvZ
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Investing visuals
Honest question for Palantir $PLTR shareholders: do you believe the current valuation is sustainable? https://t.co/T4Q7A5meGF
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Honest question for Palantir $PLTR shareholders: do you believe the current valuation is sustainable? https://t.co/T4Q7A5meGF
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Offshore
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Quiver Quantitative
I recently created a "DC Insider Score" by combining data on:
- Congressional trading
- Corporate lobbying
- Government contracts
It quantifies how closely companies are tied to the US government.
Here's the current top 15:
1. General Dynamics
2. Lockheed Martin
3. IBM
4. Microsoft
5. Accenture
6. Pfizer
7. Merck
8. FedEx
9. Northrop Grumman
10. Oracle
11. Abbot Laboratories
12. UPS
13. Honeywell
14. McKesson
15. AT&T
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I recently created a "DC Insider Score" by combining data on:
- Congressional trading
- Corporate lobbying
- Government contracts
It quantifies how closely companies are tied to the US government.
Here's the current top 15:
1. General Dynamics
2. Lockheed Martin
3. IBM
4. Microsoft
5. Accenture
6. Pfizer
7. Merck
8. FedEx
9. Northrop Grumman
10. Oracle
11. Abbot Laboratories
12. UPS
13. Honeywell
14. McKesson
15. AT&T
tweet
Offshore
Video
Startup Archive
Paul Graham explains why you shouldn’t try to be a visionary
“Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with small things and grow them bigger. Want to dominate microcomputer software for decades? Start by writing a basic interpreter for a machine with a couple thousand users. Want to make the universal website and a giant vacuum for people’s time? Start by building a website where Harvard undergrads can stalk one another.”
Paul Graham continues:
“Neither Bill Gates nor Mark Zuckerberg knew how big their companies were going to get. All they knew was that they were onto something… Maybe it’s a bad idea to have really big ambitions initially, because the bigger your ambitions, the longer they’re going to take to realize and the long you’re projecting into the future, the more likely you’re going to be wrong.”
PG suggests starting with something small that works instead.
“I think the best way to do these big ideas is not to try and identify a precise point in the future and say, How do I get from here to there? Like the popular image of a visionary. I think a better model is Columbus who thought there was something to the West—I’ll sail westward. Start with something that works, that you know works, that’s small, and then when the opportunity comes to move, move westward. The popular image of a visionary is someone with a very precise view of the future, but empirically it’s probably better to have a blurry one.”
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Paul Graham explains why you shouldn’t try to be a visionary
“Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with small things and grow them bigger. Want to dominate microcomputer software for decades? Start by writing a basic interpreter for a machine with a couple thousand users. Want to make the universal website and a giant vacuum for people’s time? Start by building a website where Harvard undergrads can stalk one another.”
Paul Graham continues:
“Neither Bill Gates nor Mark Zuckerberg knew how big their companies were going to get. All they knew was that they were onto something… Maybe it’s a bad idea to have really big ambitions initially, because the bigger your ambitions, the longer they’re going to take to realize and the long you’re projecting into the future, the more likely you’re going to be wrong.”
PG suggests starting with something small that works instead.
“I think the best way to do these big ideas is not to try and identify a precise point in the future and say, How do I get from here to there? Like the popular image of a visionary. I think a better model is Columbus who thought there was something to the West—I’ll sail westward. Start with something that works, that you know works, that’s small, and then when the opportunity comes to move, move westward. The popular image of a visionary is someone with a very precise view of the future, but empirically it’s probably better to have a blurry one.”
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Adobe $ADBE: A leader in the creative industry for a reasonable price👌
What’s your take on this business? https://t.co/fxztikcLVg
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Adobe $ADBE: A leader in the creative industry for a reasonable price👌
What’s your take on this business? https://t.co/fxztikcLVg
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hayden Capital on Applovin $APP US
Thesis: Applovin’s future hinges on executing its eCommerce ad strategy and capturing significant market share
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/pfDid3mrqf
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Hayden Capital on Applovin $APP US
Thesis: Applovin’s future hinges on executing its eCommerce ad strategy and capturing significant market share
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/pfDid3mrqf
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Offshore
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Stock Analysis Compilation
Hotchkis & Wiley on APA Corp $APA US
Thesis: APA’s strategic focus on high-return assets and post-acquisition efficiencies positions it for a cash flow rebound
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/vgoDcGRtBe
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Hotchkis & Wiley on APA Corp $APA US
Thesis: APA’s strategic focus on high-return assets and post-acquisition efficiencies positions it for a cash flow rebound
(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/vgoDcGRtBe
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Offshore
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Startup Archive
RT @then_there_was: I’m curious how this would contrast with the way Peter Thiel would describe Mark Zuckerberg.
I’m probably wrong here, but I would have thought Peter would describe Mark as very ambitious with a precise vision of the future. Mark did reject acquisitions early on after all.
Someone with that much conviction seems like they’d have a clear vision in mind.
Not to say you shouldn’t start small or without flexibility. Those seem to be important prerequisites. And most people aren’t Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates. So perhaps they’re exceptions to the rule.
But sometimes I wonder if empirically the reason most startups fail is because they’re not maniacally ambitious enough. That seems unlikely. So perhaps Paul is speaking from the perspective of someone who has seen ambition lead many founders astray due to their stubbornness and grandiosity.
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RT @then_there_was: I’m curious how this would contrast with the way Peter Thiel would describe Mark Zuckerberg.
I’m probably wrong here, but I would have thought Peter would describe Mark as very ambitious with a precise vision of the future. Mark did reject acquisitions early on after all.
Someone with that much conviction seems like they’d have a clear vision in mind.
Not to say you shouldn’t start small or without flexibility. Those seem to be important prerequisites. And most people aren’t Mark Zuckerberg or Bill Gates. So perhaps they’re exceptions to the rule.
But sometimes I wonder if empirically the reason most startups fail is because they’re not maniacally ambitious enough. That seems unlikely. So perhaps Paul is speaking from the perspective of someone who has seen ambition lead many founders astray due to their stubbornness and grandiosity.
Paul Graham explains why you shouldn’t try to be a visionary
“Empirically, the way to do really big things seems to be to start with small things and grow them bigger. Want to dominate microcomputer software for decades? Start by writing a basic interpreter for a machine with a couple thousand users. Want to make the universal website and a giant vacuum for people’s time? Start by building a website where Harvard undergrads can stalk one another.”
Paul Graham continues:
“Neither Bill Gates nor Mark Zuckerberg knew how big their companies were going to get. All they knew was that they were onto something… Maybe it’s a bad idea to have really big ambitions initially, because the bigger your ambitions, the longer they’re going to take to realize and the long you’re projecting into the future, the more likely you’re going to be wrong.”
PG suggests starting with something small that works instead.
“I think the best way to do these big ideas is not to try and identify a precise point in the future and say, How do I get from here to there? Like the popular image of a visionary. I think a better model is Columbus who thought there was something to the West—I’ll sail westward. Start with something that works, that you know works, that’s small, and then when the opportunity comes to move, move westward. The popular image of a visionary is someone with a very precise view of the future, but empirically it’s probably better to have a blurry one.” tweet
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Quiver Quantitative
Marjorie Taylor Greene made a large purchase of Tesla stock right before the election.
$TSLA has now risen 49% since then. https://t.co/78Hs1THdXp
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Marjorie Taylor Greene made a large purchase of Tesla stock right before the election.
$TSLA has now risen 49% since then. https://t.co/78Hs1THdXp
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AkhenOsiris
$UBER
Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni reiterated a Buy rating and $100 price target.
"Waymo announced it will expand to Miami in partnership with UBER-backed Moove. The plan is the next phase of Waymo's experimentation with various business models before committing to a long-term strategy. We do not view today's news as reducing the likelihood of a long-term UBER/Waymo partnership. We remain bullish on UBER given: (1) its leading FCF growth; (2) growing share repurchasses; (3) less competition from Didi; and (4) robotaxi noise."
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$UBER
Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni reiterated a Buy rating and $100 price target.
"Waymo announced it will expand to Miami in partnership with UBER-backed Moove. The plan is the next phase of Waymo's experimentation with various business models before committing to a long-term strategy. We do not view today's news as reducing the likelihood of a long-term UBER/Waymo partnership. We remain bullish on UBER given: (1) its leading FCF growth; (2) growing share repurchasses; (3) less competition from Didi; and (4) robotaxi noise."
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AkhenOsiris
I'm as much a long term AMZN bull as our friends @jbulltard1 and @BigBullCap , now with stock at $225 and Trump about to ascend the throne, what is the tariff impact here?
Some margin impact if Amazon eats some cost or growth impact if they don't. Amazon may end up being the cleanest of the dirty shirts, due to the breadth of choice. However all retail China-exposed names should feel some initial pain, and it might be very short-term. Not sure if market currently is just satisfied with Amazon's position or outright ignoring what's to come. Appreciate any opinions out there.
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I'm as much a long term AMZN bull as our friends @jbulltard1 and @BigBullCap , now with stock at $225 and Trump about to ascend the throne, what is the tariff impact here?
Some margin impact if Amazon eats some cost or growth impact if they don't. Amazon may end up being the cleanest of the dirty shirts, due to the breadth of choice. However all retail China-exposed names should feel some initial pain, and it might be very short-term. Not sure if market currently is just satisfied with Amazon's position or outright ignoring what's to come. Appreciate any opinions out there.
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