Offshore
Photo
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
A quality valuation analysis on $UBER ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 29.43x
โ€ขYTD Mean: 19.67x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 5.13%
โ€ขYTD Mean: 3.97%

As you can see, $UBER appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~44% MORE in earnings per share & ~29% MORE in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at $UBER business quality

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $9.06B
โ€ขLong-Term Debt: $10.84B

$UBER has a strong balance sheet, a BBB- S&P Credit Rating & 11x FFO Interest Coverage

RETURN ON CAPITALโŒโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ†—
โ€ข2019: (35.9%)
โ€ข2020: (18.1%)
โ€ข2021: (14.0%)
โ€ข2022: (9.0%)
โ€ข2023: 4.5%
โ€ขLTM: 8.9%

RETURN ON EQUITYโŒโžก๏ธโœ…
โ€ข2019: (77.5%)
โ€ข2020: (46.9%)
โ€ข2021: (3.9%)
โ€ข2022: (76.6%)
โ€ข2023: 20.4%
โ€ขLTM: 34.3%

$UBER has ok return metrics

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2019: $13.00B
โ€ข2023: $37.28B
โ€ขCAGR: 30.13%

FREE CASH FLOWโŒโžก๏ธโœ…
โ€ข2019: ($4.91B)
โ€ข2023: $3.36B

NORMALIZED EPSโŒโžก๏ธโœ…
โ€ข2019: ($2.49)
โ€ข2023: $1.82

SHARE BUYBACKSโŒ
โ€ข2019 Shares Outstanding: $1.25B
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: $2.08B

By increasing its shares outstanding ~66%, $UBER decreased its EPS by ~40% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโŒโžก๏ธ๐Ÿ†—
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 32.7%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 6.4%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 10.5%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~44% MORE in EPS & ~29% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $UBER has to grow earnings at an 9.84% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2027 EPS growth over the next few years to be more than the (9.84%) required growth rate:

2024E: $2.81 (54.1% YoY) *FY Dec

2025E: $3.15 (12.0% YoY)
2026E: $4.02 (27.7% YoY)
2027E: $5.09 (26.6% YoY)

$UBER has an ok track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $UBER ends 2027 with $4.56 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples

22x P/E: $100.32๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~15.0% CAGR

21x P/E: $95.76๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~13.3% CAGR

20x P/E: $91.20๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~11.5% CAGR

19x P/E: $86.64๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~9.7% CAGR

As you can see, $UBER appears to have attractive return potential IF we assume >20 earnings (a multiple justified by its growth rate)

At >22x earnings, $UBER has aggressive CAGR potential & itโ€™s not unreasonable for the business to trade for ~22x (given its growth rate, balance sheet, & improving financials)

Those buying today have some margin of safety given, especially since we reduced 2027 EPS estimates by ~10%

Today at $65๐Ÿ’ต $UBER appears to be a decent consideration for investment

However, I am personally not as interested in $UBER as it fails to meet some of my quality requirements & I am unforgiving with business selection โ€ฆ I already have an investable universe with the worldโ€™s highest-quality names & donโ€™t need to make an exception for a decent business

#stocks #investing
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐œ๐จ๐ฆ๐ฉ๐ฅ๐ž๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐ž๐ฌ๐ฌ ๐จ๐ซ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ.
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
7 months ago I stated:

โ€œToday at $300๐Ÿ’ต $LULU appears to be worthwhile consideration for investmentโ€

Since then, $LULU shares gained +31% โœ…*

As I suggested in the post attached below๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿฝ

โ€œ$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone

I donโ€™t believe itโ€™s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong history of growth โ€” $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 ๐Ÿคฏ)

Today at $300๐Ÿ’ต $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment โ€” albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closelyโ€

*The analysis on $LULU was met with a -20% downturn shortly after. However, investors who maintained conviction in the company's strong foundation were ultimately rewarded. This serves as a reminder that, despite market fluctuations, well-researched investments with strong fundamentals can yield long-term success
_______

#stocks #investing"

A sober valuation analysis on $LULU ๐Ÿง˜๐Ÿฝโ€โ™‚๏ธ

โ€ขNTM P/E Ratio: 21.14x
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 35.94x

โ€ขNTM FCF Yield: 3.80%
โ€ข10-Year Mean: 2.16%

As you can see, $LULU appears to be trading below fair value

Going forward, investors can receive ~70% MORE in earnings per share & ~75% MORE in FCF per share ๐Ÿง ***

Before we get into valuation, letโ€™s take a look at why $LULU is a good business

BALANCE SHEETโœ…
โ€ขCash & Short-Term Inv: $2.24B
โ€ขTotal Debt: $1.40B

$LULU has an excellent balance sheet

RETURN ON CAPITALโœ…
โ€ข2020: 32.5%
โ€ข2021: 23.8%
โ€ข2022: 37.4%
โ€ข2023: 40.4%
โ€ข2024: 39.0%

RETURN ON EQUITYโœ…
โ€ข2020: 38.0%
โ€ข2021: 26.1%
โ€ข2022: 36.8%
โ€ข2023: 29.0%
โ€ข2024: 42.0%

$LULU has strong return metrics, highlighting the financial efficiency of the business

REVENUESโœ…
โ€ข2014: $1.59B
โ€ข2024: $9.62B
โ€ขCAGR: 19.72%

FREE CASH FLOWโœ…
โ€ข2014: $171.93M
โ€ข2024: $1.64B
โ€ขCAGR: 25.33%

NORMALIZED EPSโœ…
โ€ข2014: $1.91
โ€ข2024: $12.77
โ€ขCAGR: 20.92%

SHARE BUYBACKSโœ…
โ€ข2014 Shares Outstanding: 146.04M
โ€ขLTM Shares Outstanding: 127.06M

By reducing its shares outstanding ~13%, $LULU increased its EPS by ~15% (assuming 0 growth)

MARGINSโœ…
โ€ขLTM Gross Margins: 58.3%
โ€ขLTM Operating Margins: 22.9%
โ€ขLTM Net Income Margins: 16.1%

***NOW TO VALUATION ๐Ÿง 

As stated above, investors can expect to receive ~70% MORE in EPS & ~75% MORE in FCF per share

Using Benjamin Grahamโ€™s 2G rule of thumb, $LULU has to grow earnings at a 10.57% CAGR over the next several years to justify its valuation

Today, analysts anticipate 2025 - 2026 EPS growth over next few years to be slightly above the (10.57%) required growth rate:

2025E: $14.16 (10.9% YoY) *FY Jan
2026E: $15.86 (12.0% YoY)

$LULU has a decent track record of meeting analyst estimates ~2 years out, so letโ€™s assume $LULU ends 2026 with $15.86 in EPS & see its CAGR potential assuming different multiples:

25x P/E: $396.50๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~19.2% CAGR

24x P/E: $380.64๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~16.2% CAGR

23x P/E: $364.78๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~13.1% CAGR

22x P/E: $348.92๐Ÿ’ต โ€ฆ ~10.0% CAGR

As you can see, $LULU appears to have attractive return potential IF it can demand a >22x multiple

However, itโ€™s important to keep in mind that itโ€™s difficult to maintain a strong competitive advantage (over long periods of time) in the athletic apparel space & recent growth concerns amid increased competition is why $LULU stock is trading near the lowest end of its historical multiple range

$LULU can demand a >20x multiple IF it beats growth estimates over the next few years, signaling that the sell-off due to competitive pressures may be overdone

I donโ€™t believe itโ€™s unreasonable to rely on ~22x (especially given $LULU return metrics, balance sheet, & strong histo[...]
Offshore
โ Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ 7 months ago I stated: โ€œToday at $300๐Ÿ’ต $LULU appears to be worthwhile consideration for investmentโ€ Since then, $LULU shares gained +31% โœ…* As I suggested in the post attached below๐Ÿ‘‡๐Ÿฝ โ€œ$LULU can demand a >20x multipleโ€ฆ
ry of growth โ€” $LULU has grown its revenues ANNUALLY since 2007 ๐Ÿคฏ)

Today at $300๐Ÿ’ต $LULU appears to be a worthwhile consideration for investment โ€” albeit with several competitive risks (and how $LULU responds) that should be monitored closely

#stocks #investing
___

๐ƒ๐ˆ๐’๐‚๐‹๐Ž๐’๐”๐‘๐„โ€ผ๏ธ: ๐“๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐๐Ž๐“ ๐ˆ๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐€๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž. ๐๐š๐›๐ฒ๐ฅ๐จ๐ง ๐‚๐š๐ฉ๐ข๐ญ๐š๐ฅยฎ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ข๐ญ๐ฌ ๐ซ๐ž๐ฉ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ž๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ ๐ฆ๐š๐ฒ ๐ก๐š๐ฏ๐ž ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ž๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ข๐ญ๐ข๐ž๐ฌ ๐๐ข๐ฌ๐œ๐ฎ๐ฌ๐ฌ๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ.

๐“๐ก๐ž ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ง๐๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ ๐ข๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง๐š๐ฅ ๐ฉ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ฉ๐จ๐ฌ๐ž๐ฌ ๐จ๐ง๐ฅ๐ฒ ๐š๐ง๐ ๐ฌ๐ก๐จ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐›๐ž ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ฌ๐ญ๐ซ๐ฎ๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ข๐ง๐ฏ๐ž๐ฌ๐ญ๐ฆ๐ž๐ง๐ญ ๐š๐๐ฏ๐ข๐œ๐ž ๐ญ๐จ ๐ฆ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ญ๐ก๐ž ๐ฌ๐ฉ๐ž๐œ๐ข๐Ÿ๐ข๐œ ๐ง๐ž๐ž๐๐ฌ ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐š๐ง๐ฒ ๐ข๐ง๐๐ข๐ฏ๐ข๐๐ฎ๐š๐ฅ ๐จ๐ซ ๐ฌ๐ข๐ญ๐ฎ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง. ๐๐š๐ฌ๐ญ ๐ฉ๐ž๐ซ๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ง๐œ๐ž ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž ๐จ๐Ÿ ๐Ÿ๐ฎ๐ญ๐ฎ๐ซ๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฌ๐ฎ๐ฅ๐ญ๐ฌ.

๐ˆ๐ง๐Ÿ๐จ๐ซ๐ฆ๐š๐ญ๐ข๐จ๐ง ๐œ๐จ๐ง๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐ข๐ง ๐ญ๐ก๐ข๐ฌ ๐ญ๐ฐ๐ž๐ž๐ญ ๐ก๐š๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ž๐ง ๐จ๐›๐ญ๐š๐ข๐ง๐ž๐ ๐Ÿ๐ซ๐จ๐ฆ ๐ฌ๐จ๐ฎ๐ซ๐œ๐ž๐ฌ ๐›๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐ž๐ฏ๐ž๐ ๐ญ๐จ ๐›๐ž ๐ซ๐ž๐ฅ๐ข๐š๐›๐ฅ๐ž, ๐›๐ฎ๐ญ ๐ข๐ฌ ๐ง๐จ๐ญ ๐ ๐ฎ๐š๐ซ๐š๐ง๐ญ๐ž๐ž๐ ๐š๐ฌ ๐ญ๐จ ๐š๐œ๐œ๐ฎ๐ซ๐š๐œ๐ฒ. "- Dimitry Nakhla | Babylon Capitalยฎ
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Stock Analysis Compilation
Crossroads Capital on Magnite $MGNI US

Thesis: Magniteโ€™s Netflix partnership and CTV dominance position it to lead programmatic advertising and deliver outsized returns

(Extract from their Q3 letter) https://t.co/b3FFg9AD0d
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ Quiver Quantitative
RT @PelosiTracker_: The Political Trading 2024 Wrapped is here

Because if you can't beat them, join them ๐Ÿซก https://t.co/NPrxVAaDGa
tweet
Offshore
Photo
โ App Economy Insights
$CRM Salesforce surged 11% after its Q3 print.

๐Ÿค– Agentforce early traction
๐Ÿ‘ฅ Hiring 1,400 salespeople
๐Ÿ’ฐ $2B+ on new AI acquisitions
๐Ÿ‘ฉ๐Ÿปโ€๐Ÿ’ผ The AI talent war is heating up

Here's what you need to know. ๐Ÿ‘‡
https://t.co/tGsXImfQeg
tweet