📊 Market Update 📊

Markets are 100% expecting the Fed to cut rates by 25 bps on Sept 17th, with some anticipating another one to two cuts later this year which has fueled the run we're seeing. Sentiment still leans bullish as the market prices in easier liquidity, a softer dollar, and renewed “risk-on” appetite, with Bitcoin already rallying toward resistance. However, because the cut is largely priced in, the real driver will be the Fed’s guidance. Dovish signals could extend the upside, while a cautious or hawkish tone risks a “sell-the-news” reaction and near-term volatility. Other news items included:

- Michael Saylor hints at buying more Bitcoin
- Publicly traded Capital B buys another 48 $BTC worth $5.6 million.
- Pakistan’s government welcomes global crypto companies to secure national licenses.
- U.S and China begin economic trade discussions in Madrid
- DOGE ETF delayed until later this week
- AVNT ranks among the top gainers as it's listed on Binance, Upbit, Crypto.com, and Bithumb, all within 1 hour, showing that appetite has definitely returned in the market

Upcoming Events
- Sept 17th FOMC Meeting

The market had a slight pullback as people are now front-running the rate cut "sell-the-news" which could even make it a "buy-the-news". I'll be watching ETF flows today (especially since SOL is now included) and keep an eye on all of the different narratives. Currently it's been the streamer narrative, trading cards, AI, and onchain perps (HYPE and AVNT). This shows that traders are ready to up the risk and we're seeing that with more investments onchain.

📊 BTC/ETH Analysis 📊

We're finally getting the pullback we were expecting on BTC from the overbought daily StochRSI and the 5 days of inflows while being at major resistance. This is why it pays to study technicals. The next area of interest remains 114k for a potential bounce as we near interest rate cuts Sept 17th. Like I mentioned before, we could be front-running the "sell-the-news" and the cuts end up being a "buy-the-news" event. The 114k level coincides with liq clusters of the 24H heatmap while we have even bigger clusters near 113k. Both areas that I would be DCAing. I'll be watching ETF flows today and keep you updated along the way.

Major resistance is 115.6k, 116.8k, 120k, 123k
Major support is 114k, 112k, 110k, 108k, 106.4k, 104k, 100k

ETH also had a pullback as we expected. The StochRSI is retracing after becoming overbought and the RSI is very close to crossing below its signal line. Keep an eye on 4480 being the first area of support, followed by 4300. The market is very volatile ahead of rate cuts so never rush a trade, and instead wait for it to come to you while your indicators are in confluence and price is at major support levels on the daily/weekly timeframes.

Major resistance is 4640, 4760 and 4950
Major support is 4500, 4300, 4060, 3830, 3630, 3500, 3270, 3050, 2820

📊 Market Update 📊

There's been a ton of bullishness in the market recently and we're pumping into the end of October as expected. With that said, there will still be a lot of volatility. We're heading into the end of the month for options expiry, Tuesday is approaching which has been red the past 12 times, and everyone is front-running the rate cuts happening Oct 29th. With that said, there's still some upcoming events to keep in mind + recent news items that just released today:

- China Foreign Minister says President Xi Jinping & President Trump respect each other.
- Trump says he may announce a new Federal Reserve Chair by the end of the year to replace Jerome Powell.
- Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' buys 390 Bitcoin worth $45 million (this tends to mark temporary tops but let's see)
- US and China reach early agreement on key issues following 'successful' trade talks.
- Trump to meet with Xi Jinping Oct 30th
- JPMorgan expects Fed to end QT this week
- Hong Kong SOL ETF Oct 27th
- Rate cuts Oct 29th
- Blackrock ETH staking ETF Oct 30th
- GOLD/BITCOIN topping out
- Q4 seasonality

As you can see, there are still plenty of reasons to remain bullish. Although I still like to play both sides as we have become exhausted on the daily StochRSI for various tokens. We could still have one last pump before a retracement so manage your risk accordingly. The New Moon is technically still in effect (usually lasts 3-7 days which would mean the end would be near Oct 28th). With that said, dips remain for buying.

We called this pump to a tee, so now we have to adjust our buy levels. BTC formed a CME gap at 111k so that will be the big area I would look to long if we have a major flush. Major support for BTC is also 113.2-114k and 112k, ETH's major resistance is 4300 and the trendline resistance at 4400 while its support is 4060 and 3850, and SOL's resistance is the daily 50 EMA at 203 and the horizontal resistance at 209 and 215, while its support is 201 and 192. If you can get entries near any of those levels, that would be best R/R wise.

The risk of not being in the market still remains greater than the risk of being in it. While there is still uncertainty with the government shutdown, tariffs, and the overall economy, things are starting to become clearer which means the negotiations should remain positive. As always, manage your risk accordingly and only bet at major support levels on the daily/weekly timeframes while your indicators are in confluence.