Our partners at SEVMOB ✶ SEVASTOPOL (@SevMob), @DoppelFod, present:

THE BIG GRAIN SWINDLE
Or a black mark in the Black Sea.

#OPINION #GRAIN

1/2

I took part of the title of this article out of respect for the Sex Pistols band, and the book The Great Rock'n'roll Swindle, written by their manager, is an integral part of all punk rock history. So, the name immediately came to mind as my ship anchored just south of Bozcaada Island, awaiting passage through the Dardanelles, the first of the two Turkish straits that open up the Black Sea to the shipping. The second strait is the Bosphorus. The two are 130 nautical miles apart and are separated by the Sea of Marmara. This article is an analysis of the data I have from a carrier at sea on a Liberian-flagged merchant vessel.

My ship is sailing to Ukraine on its not-very-best of days, to say the least, for corn. All the Russian crew are disembarked, only Ukrainians and Filipinos remain on board. I am a Crimean citizen my hometown is Sevastopol. That means that for the Ukrainian authorities I am a separatist, a turncoat and an enemy. I am going ashore in the second strait, in the Bosphorus. But that is better than the uncertainty caused by the harsh reality of lawlessness that has been operating in Ukraine long before the events of February 24. After February 24, for ordinary Russian seafarers in Ukrainian ports it became even worse. Harsh interviewing, fact-checking on social media, offers of cooperation/recruitment, removal from the vessel under various pretexts contrary to international conventions followed by an exchange (remember the Svir ship crew), torture, extortion, etc. Erdogan, hold my beer, I'm packing a suitcase.

What can I say, when the Ukrainian citizens, the crew members themselves, had their jaws dropped when the note came with the details of the next voyage, together with the port of loading Yuzhny (now called Pivdenny port, renamed recently so as not to associate anything with the Russian language), which is located just north of Odessa. Jaws dropped, because Ukrainian seafarers themselves understand that they also will be interviewed and fact-checked, that uncomfortable questions await them, that anything can happen in the port, and that representatives of various departments can come on board. The provocative bravado with which they sang the Ukrainian anthem, with a glass in their hand, faded away, out of the chat. They and their ship are on their way to Ukraine and they are not laughing.

So we dropped anchor near the entrance to the Dardanelles. Just so you understand, this happens very rarely. It used to be possible to take a pilot across the strait immediately upon arrival or to pass the strait without a pilot at all. But it all comes down to the three operating Ukrainian grain ports in the Black Sea: the port of Yuzhny, Odessa and Chernomorsk (formerly Illyichevsk). The grain deal, which was formalised recently between Turkey, Russia, Ukraine and the EU, is conditional upon the creation of a special corridor, the HSTC (High Seas Transit Corridor) in Ukrainian territorial waters, which in turn is part of the MHC (Maritime Humanitarian Corridor) in the Black Sea, in force for the duration of the deal itself. What this mean is: a two-mile-wide corridor has been created, and vessels traveling to and from Ukrainian ports are lined up in a caravan to which no warships of either party are allowed within ten miles of each other. The coordinating body for all this is also the JCC (Joint Coordination Centre). The grain treaty itself has a deadline of November 22 this year. If in the beginning everything was working like clockwork and more than two hundred bulk carriers have already fulfilled their voyage obligations to deliver Ukrainian grain crops to various countries, now the deal is in jeopardy and here's why.

(continued in the next post)

Our partners at SEVMOB ✶ SEVASTOPOL (@SevMob), @DoppelFod, present:

THE BIG GRAIN SWINDLE
Or a black mark on the Black Sea.

#OPINION #GRAIN

Part 2/2

Some of Ukraine's infrastructure has been subjected to chaotic shelling that cannot be predicted (except military warehouses or military installations, which are to be attacked for sure - here is an exclusive video from Odessa port that we published in late September on adekVatny channel, filmed by Filipino sailors, who made it available to us). Vessels that are docked in Ukrainian ports depend on the loading of grain cargo on the conveyor belts. Usually, a full loading of a vessel - from 38,000 to 55,000 tons of grain - takes a day or a little more in such ports as Yuzhny.

The onshore structure of the port itself depends on electricity, and there is none. Yes, a grain deal vessel has been stuck in Yuzhny for more than five days, waiting to continue cargo operations in a half-defeated port with its shore supply system disrupted. Apparently the TPP didn't come far. Such disruptions are not uncommon now and it places the whole grain deal in a very delicate balance. And this is by no means a violation of the grain treaty by Russia, not at all. Obviously, the momentary desire of Ukraine and the Western intelligence services to shit on the bridge is much higher than the needs of ordinary people in developing countries to receive food.

What's the bottom line? The Dardanelles and Bosphorus anchorages are overflowing with bulkers waiting to pass through the corridor. The EU is paying. Ukrainian ports are failing to cope with power, if not all of them, then some of the three, already anticipating new difficulties. The EU is paying again. Recently Erdogan has raised the price for passage through the straits with compulsory pilotage for treaty vessels (for ships sailing to Russian ports and ports of other countries in the Black Sea, pilotage in the Dardanelles is optional). EU pays. Charterers and ship owners panic, they lose money from the delays. The EU pays. In the end is the EU who is paying for all the complications that have occurred since the eighth of October. The death knell on the grain treaty with the complication of its extension is there. The likelihood of an extension exists, but it is slim. Ukraine and the EU lose, Russia and Turkey (especially), gain.

This is a black mark already sent to all those who blow up bridges in the Black Sea.

— fodeve, writing for @SevMob

P.S.: Here is my poem, written under the impression of the bridge bombing on the same day, the eighth of October (English translation / my proofreading )

Source: @SevMob / https://t.me/sevmob/516

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Our partners at SEVMOB ✶ SEVASTOPOL (@SevMob), @DoppelFod, present:

THE GRAIN SHOW must not go on

#OPINION #GRAIN

It's finally come together for me, thanks to Rybar.

The Ajalyk substation in the Odessa region: it feeds, among others, the port Yuzhny, which I wrote about here. It was hit on 22 October. Power was soon restored with volumes supplied from Romania.

Here is a high-resolution map of strikes on Ukraine's power hubs, which confirms this. While Russia is hitting the infrastructure, all three of Ukraine's major grain ports are stranded and will not be able to operate as usual.

We are still anchored in the Dardanelles—there are many ships with us. In the Marmara Sea, more than a hundred vessels are waiting, just the same as us for passage through the Bosphorus and onwards, some of them have to go through the grain corridor in the Black Sea. There is a lot of traffic.

The grain deal will end on 22 November. NATO has requested a continuation of the banquet but the UN Secretariat has still not responded to Russia's request on the movement of grain to the consumer. Vasily Nebenzya hinted that in order for the deal to be extended at all, it is time to drop the shark sanctions against our own vessels in the Euro-ports, about our own grain exports. That is to say, to set the West such an impossible bar that they will not jump over without giving up their position by a little more than half.

That's what I'm explaining now, the slowdown of the entire grain shipping corridor. Ships are waiting. Ukrainian port infrastructure is in agony. The deal will not be extended unless sanctions are lifted. Geraniums fly into targets. Cargo is stuck in Ukraine.

Are you following Grandmaster's hand?

The black mark operation in the Black Sea continues. The grain show must not go on.

Source: @SevMob / https://t.me/sevmob/693

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