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Conflicts Forum's Weekly Comment: If Iran Survives and Stays Steadfast, Trump’s Resource War on China and BRICS Collapses

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If Iran Survives and Stays Steadfast, Trump’s Resource War on China and BRICS Collapses
The US-Israeli war primordially is being waged to create Israeli hegemony across West Asia.
At one level, the conflict is an existential battle, fought out between Iranian missile and intercept capabilities, versus those of the US and Israel.
Conventional thinking has been that this was a no-brainer contest: Iran would be outmatched by US technology and firepower, and forced to capitulate.  
Iran’s military humiliation, plus the decapitation of its leadership, would result -- it is presumed -- in an organic upsurge of populist resentment that would overwhelm the Iranian State, and roll it back into the western sphere. 
On the plane of the purely bilateral struggle -- as the war enters the fourth day -- Iran sits in the driving seat. The State has not crumbled, but rather is visiting drone and missile carnage on to American military bases across the Gulf, and is striking Israel with hypersonic missiles, armed (for the first time) with multiple steerable warheads.
At this point, Iran is on the verge of exhausting Gulf interceptor stockpiles entirely -- and too, has eaten deeply into Israeli-American dwindling air defence reserves through Iran initially prioritising older missiles and drones that deplete air defences. Iranian high-end missiles flying at speeds above Mach Four are proving largely impervious to Israeli air defences.
The US intelligence-led assassination of the Supreme Leader has proved to be a cardinal error. Rather than precipitate a collapse of morale, it led instead to massive outpourings of support for the Islamic Republic. To evident surprise in Washington, it has also fired-up Shi’a across the region with calls for jihad and for revenge for the killing of a revered Shi’a religious leader. Tel Aviv and Washington badly misread the terrain.
In sum, Iran is resilient and holding its ground for the long-term against the US, whose calculus was grounded in a quick ‘shoot and scoot’ war -- a strategy largely imposed by paucity of munitions. The Gulf monarchies are wobbling. The Gulf ‘brand’ -- Prosperity, big money, AI, beaches and tourism -- likely is over. Israel too, may not survive in its present state.
The geopolitical ramifications, however, extend far beyond Iran and the Gulf States. Iran’s selective closure of the Hormuz Strait, and the destruction of Gulf port facilities more widely, tells another tale.
Take Iran’s particular focus on destroying the US Fifth Fleet’s infrastructure at Bahrain. The Fifth Fleet forms the backbone to US regional hegemony -- as laid out here: 
“Approximately 90% of the world's oil trade passes through these areas, and US control guarantees the linked energy supply chains. The fleet also covers three vital strategic chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz, the Suez Canal, and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. And its HQ is not just a port. It’s a comprehensive radar, intelligence and database centre”.
Iran has succeeded in destroying the radars and much of Bahrain’s port logistic and administrative infrastructure. It is systematically driving US forces out of the Gulf.
The war on Iran is not projected just for the US to add Iranian resources to the US energy ‘domination portfolio’, as per the Venezuelan model. Iran, last year, represented only about 13.4% of total oil imported by China by sea — not a crucial component.  
The Iran war however, is all about a bigger US play: Control of strategic chokepoints, and of energy transit more generally, so as to deny China access to energy markets and so to curtail its growth. 
The Trump National Security Strategy (NSS) set a goal for US policy of “rebalanc[ing] China’s economy towards household consumption”. 

During a sermon yesterday, megachurch “pastor” Greg Laurie said, "We know that...modern Iran plays a role in the End Times scenario... As far as I can see, the next event in the prophetic calendar will be the rapture of the church..."

The pre-trib rapture is a Darby invention, pushed by Scofield. The true (Orthodox) Church has never believed in this false doctrine. Perhaps the alien deception will assist in convincing many unsuspecting believers a “rapture” has taken place, but not those who know the truth.

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