The Stock Vigilantes

Dulu bond market yang mengontrol pemerintah. Sekarang saham yang pegang kendali. Setiap market jatuh, policymakers langsung pivot (stimulus, dovish, dll). Contohnya kemarin waktu saham jatuh trump langsung minta gencatan senjata. Stocks terlalu besar untuk dibiarkan jatuh (“too big to fail”). Nanti saat bond yield naik or pasar saham AS crash pasti trump melunak lagi.

Approval trump terus turun, tekanan politik naik. semakin besar tekanan politik, semakin besar peluang kebijakan pro-market dari trump muncul.

Sumber data : Bank of America (BofA)

BADAI BELUM REDA

Presiden Donald Trump mengatakan Angkatan Laut Amerika Serikat akan mulai memblokade Selat Hormuz, buntut negosiasi damai dengan Iran yang berakhir buntu.

Oil meroket naik lagi. Higher for longer

Market masih digerakan headline AS vs Iran. Ketegangan meningkat, Harga oil meroket, IHSG potensi tertekan lagi.

Buy 8500 lot saham CTRA. Antisipasi teknikal rebound

Defisit APBN 2026 sudah mencapai Rp240,1 triliun (0,93% PDB) hanya dalam satu kuartal, sementara belanja negara tumbuh jauh lebih cepat (+31,4% YoY) dibandingkan penerimaan (+10,5% YoY).

Harga minyak yang tinggi dan pelemahan rupiah membuat ruang fiskal menjadi semakin sempit. Jika tren ini berlanjut tanpa penyesuaian belanja yang lebih disiplin dan selektif, risiko defisit tembus 3%.

Jika tren berlanjut risiko downgrade rating meningkat.

Bahasa simplenya boros. Pengeluaran lebih besar dari pendapatan akhirnya defisit

Saham CTRA fase bottoming. Potensi rebound menguji R 790-870.

Revenue beat. CTRA reported 4Q25 revenue of Rp 4.2tn (+68% QoQ, +4% YoY), mainly driven by landed property revenue, which grew +85% YoY. FY25 revenue reached Rp 12.6tn, marking CTRA’s highest level on record.

IHSG terus naik meskipun ketegangan belum mereda mengindikasikan market sudah beradaptasi dengan bad news perang (priced in). Secara teknikal candle IHSG menguji downtrend line

HRUM target mansek 1500, Macquarie RX 1900. IHSG menguat banyak saham yang teknikalnya mulai bagus buat trading

HRUM rebound di area support

IHSG menguat banyak saham yang teknikalnya mulai bagus buat trading nih

HRUM bakal menguji resistance 1075 jika konfirmasi breakout cerita chart reversal

Banyak saham teknikalnya mulai bagus ya

CTRA ada gap di 770

Candle IHSG tembus downtrend line. Mayoritas saham arahnya naik, trading lebih enak, Banyak sinyal beli keluar

MANSEK : We reiterate our Buy call on HRUM with Rp1,500TP. The company is well-known for its 1) low-cost structure; 2) healthy balance sheet; and 3) attractive production growth outlook, with plans to build up to 67.0k tons of MHP, which will begin commercial sales in 2Q26. In 2026, the company targets BSE to reach >70% of installed capacity for the full year.

Indonesian government’s plan to cut nickel supply to support prices.

The government’s plan to reduce nickel miners’ RKAB to 260.0mn–270.0mn wmt this year (below the estimated domestic demand of 295.0mn wmt in 2025) has driven a sharp rise in nickel prices and lifted nickel ore premiums above the official benchmark price (HPM).

Although the RKAB has yet to be fully finalized, as miners are typically allowed to submit revisions in 2H, the policy has created uncertainty over ore availability, particularly for smelters reliant on third-party suppliers and imported feedstock.

Indonesia imported approx. 15.8mn wmt of nickel ores in 2025, up from around 10.0mn wmt in 2024, primarily from the Philippines. With tighter RKAB quotas, imports are projected to exceed 20.0mn wmt, increasing Indonesia’s reliance on external supply to offset the domestic shortfall.