Selama konflik belum mereda or selama belum ada story gencatan nyata yang membuat harga oil turun di bawah $80 jangan berharap banyak IHSG bisa meroket naik.
Defisit APBN indonesia semakin besar saat harga oil naik. Secara sensitivitas, setiap kenaikan $10 per barel minyak dapat meningkatkan defisit APBN sekitar Rp51,8 triliun.
Defisit APBN indonesia semakin besar saat harga oil naik. Secara sensitivitas, setiap kenaikan $10 per barel minyak dapat meningkatkan defisit APBN sekitar Rp51,8 triliun.
Sektor yang diuntungkan kondisi saat ini : Metals, Coal related, Plantation, Oil & Gas.
Commodity sectors = natural hedge against inflation & energy shock
Commodity sectors = natural hedge against inflation & energy shock
Timeline penting
Akhir April → update MSCI (critical)
12 Mei → rebalancing MSCI
Indonesia saat ini berada di titik krusial menjelang keputusan MSCI. Regulator sudah mulai melakukan reformasi penting, terutama terkait transparansi dan peningkatan free float hingga target 15%. Tapi masih banyak saham dengan kepemilikan yang terlalu terkonsentrasi dan likuiditas rendah. Hal ini membuat beberapa saham berisiko terkena penurunan bobot bahkan dikeluarkan dari indeks.
Meski risiko downgrade ke Frontier Market dinilai kecil, potensi outflow tetap signifikan jika terjadi downweight MSCI
Akhir April → update MSCI (critical)
12 Mei → rebalancing MSCI
Indonesia saat ini berada di titik krusial menjelang keputusan MSCI. Regulator sudah mulai melakukan reformasi penting, terutama terkait transparansi dan peningkatan free float hingga target 15%. Tapi masih banyak saham dengan kepemilikan yang terlalu terkonsentrasi dan likuiditas rendah. Hal ini membuat beberapa saham berisiko terkena penurunan bobot bahkan dikeluarkan dari indeks.
Meski risiko downgrade ke Frontier Market dinilai kecil, potensi outflow tetap signifikan jika terjadi downweight MSCI
Good news
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi officially announces "safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz" will be granted for 2 weeks.
JUST IN: 🇮🇷 Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi officially announces "safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz" will be granted for 2 weeks.
BREAKING: Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi releases a statement responding to President Trump's two-week ceasefire announcement.
Full statement below:
"On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.
In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.
For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations."
Full statement below:
"On behalf of the Islamic Republic of Iran, I express gratitude and appreciation for my dear brothers HE Prime Minister of Pakistan Sharif and HE Field Marshal Munir for their tireless efforts to end the war in the region.
In response to the brotherly request of PM Sharif in his tweet, and considering the request by the U.S. for negotiations based on its 15-point proposal as well as announcement by POTUS about acceptance of the general framework of Iran’s 10-point proposal as a basis for negotiations, I hereby declare on behalf of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council:
If attacks against Iran are halted, our Powerful Armed Forces will cease their defensive operations.
For a period of two weeks, safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be possible via coordination with Iran’s Armed Forces and with due consideration of technical limitations."
file_34EA446E-DCEE-4C53-ADDD-F4187C173128.pdf
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A fragile pause: ceasefire
diplomacy, market reactions
and investment implications
diplomacy, market reactions
and investment implications
Gencatan senjata antara Iran dan AS saat ini lebih bersifat temporary pause daripada gencatan senjata jangka panjang. Fundamental gap kepentingan kedua pihak masih sangat lebar mulai dari isu nuklir, sanksi, hingga kontrol atas Selat Hormuz sehingga potensi eskalasi ulang tetap tinggi.
Dengan kondisi ini, ceasefire cenderung rapuh dan berisiko tidak bertahan lama jika tidak ada kompromi yang signifikan dari kedua sisi.
Dengan kondisi ini, ceasefire cenderung rapuh dan berisiko tidak bertahan lama jika tidak ada kompromi yang signifikan dari kedua sisi.
www.rikopedia.com
Sektor yang diuntungkan kondisi saat ini : Metals, Coal related, Plantation, Oil & Gas. Commodity sectors = natural hedge against inflation & energy shock
Sektor yang paling diuntungkan saat harga oil tinggi adalah sector oil & gas