DO NOT BUY STOCK PAIRED MEMECOINS BEFORE YOU READ THIS

One market maker is making millions on these launches without ever bidding the coin itself. Roughly 70% of the volume you are looking at is net profit to one entity, and it is more profitable than any bundle because it never needs the coin to go up

At first glance it looks like a normal onchain coin where traders are PVPing each other and price only moves on net buys and sells

The easiest way to see something is off is to pull up the top PNLs after one of these does hundreds of millions in volume

For the size of the move, almost nobody made anywhere near the money you would expect. That is because a large part of it was never transferred from one meme trader to another. It was extracted through the stock token the meme is paired against

The stock token is not a share. It is an IOU printed by a company that holds the real share somewhere else. You cannot redeem it and you cannot create one

Only approved market makers can. They buy the real stock during market hours, have matching stock tokens created, then sell those tokens onchain. Everyone else can only trade the supply already circulating

Now the memecoin launches against that stock token. You are not buying the meme with dollars, you are buying it with stock tokens, and in an AMM every stock token used to buy the meme stays inside the liquidity pool

As more people buy the memecoin, more of the stock token supply gets pulled out of the open market and locked inside that one pool, which makes the remaining stock token market thinner and easier to move

Then the US stock market closes. The real share stops trading, the market maker can no longer hedge or create fresh supply, but the onchain market keeps running

If enough stock tokens have already been sucked into the meme pool, even a small amount of demand can now push the stock token far above the real share price

This is where the chart is completely lying to you

Your memecoin's dollar price is its price against the stock token multiplied by the dollar price of that stock token

If the real share is worth $10 but the stock token gets squeezed to $20 because there is no supply, your memecoin's dollar market cap effectively doubles even if absolutely nothing changed in the memecoin itself

Same thing as bitcoin printing $1,000,000 if USDT crashed to ten cents. The asset did not change. What you are pricing it in did

Retail sees the dollar chart exploding and assumes more money is entering the meme. In reality a large part of the move is just the stock token underneath trading at a fake premium

Then the stock market opens

The market maker can buy the real shares again, create fresh stock tokens near the real share price and sell those tokens into the massive onchain premium

More supply comes in, the stock token falls back toward the real stock price, and all of this can happen within 5 minutes

Your memecoin can remain completely flat against the stock token while the dollar chart gets cut in half

That is where a lot of the missing PNL went. A big part of the run was never actual dollars entering the memecoin in the first place. Retail paid the stock token premium on the way up and then ate the collapse of that same premium on the way down

The market maker does not need to guess whether your meme goes up or down. It buys the real share near fair value, creates the stock token, sells that token above fair value and keeps the position hedged

Its trade is the gap between the real stock and what retail is willing to pay for the onchain wrapper

Now people think using a tiny penny stock fixes this, because the market maker cannot easily buy enough shares to create new stock tokens, so the premium supposedly cannot close and the memecoin can keep running

That actually makes it all worse

The market maker is not forced to create supply. If the underlying stock becomes too illiquid to hedge properly, it can simply stop minting

There is no permanent premium. You get an illiquid stock token with no depth, which means your memecoin is now priced against one

Robinhood just overtook Binance to become the LARGEST tokenized stock issuer by holder count

Robinhood Stock Tokens holders: ~863k

Binance bStocks holders: ~827k

Robinhood Chain launched TWO MONTHS AGO

And Robinhood has only ~$91M in tokenized stocks while Binance has ~$611M

It already won the users before it won the capital

Market pumping on open

Today is gonna be fun

Something interesting is happening with $HYPE right now

New whales keep coming in, with one wallet pulling ~$70.6M of $HYPE off Coinbase while major holder Multicoin has been sending MILLIONS back onto Coinbase

$HYPE is sitting near its all time high and just got added to its first US index ETF with a $800 MILLION token unlock hitting in two days

Now we find out if fresh demand is strong enough to absorb what's coming

BITCOIN RECLAIMS $80,000

SEND EVERYTHING

GMM ☀️

$BTC 1d view:

I personally would like to see a bit more follow up over the next few days and continuation.

I don't want to see price trade back within this trading range that we've spent all year in.

Would make me think that this just continues to range and we revisit 60-70ks again if this happens.

Obviously we're far away from that right now and I don't necessarily think we're going down to those levels.

But it's something to consider if we start trading back in this same range.

If BTC gets above $85K, I honestly think it’s lights out for the bears.

See you at $90K+

GMM ☀️

$MET is still fundamentally one of the strongest tokens on the market, with the average daily profits coming in over $200K as of recent

With volume returning to Solana, DLMM fees picking back up, and launchpads building on Meteora tech seeing attention, I think we will quickly move from the current $75M ARR to above $100M with haste.

Not many protocols out there are pulling in $200K profit a day consistently while trading below a $170M valuation.

Sometimes it really is that simple...

Good morning ☀️

$BTC is sitting right around an important range low at $83K

i’d expect some kind of bounce from here, but if $83K breaks, i think things get ugly pretty quickly...

$80K would be the next obvious area, with a high volume node sitting around $78K

still a bit far from that level for now, but overall the chart doesnt look great yet.

Gm ☀️

just dropped my $ETH analysis over on X.

i’ll be there answering your questions, so come through!

https://x.com/rayderxbt/status/2114823475122573651?s=20