☕️ Coffee Futures at 280 – Decision Zone

Coffee is testing the 280 support area after a prolonged downtrend.

What stands out:

• RSI & Stochastic showing bullish divergence
• Open Interest rising over recent sessions
• Curve remains clearly backwardated

Backwardation suggests physical tightness.
Pressing new shorts into a tight market increases squeeze risk.

This is an inflection point:

If 280 holds → short-covering bounce toward 310–320 possible.
If it breaks with volume → acceleration toward 250.

Futures structure matters.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/KC1!/DGyN2IZe-Coffee-Futures-at-Key-Support-Backwardation-Divergence-Setup/

Most traders analyze price.

But in commodities, the real signal is often hidden in the forward curve.

Backwardation and contango tell you:
• inventory pressure
• physical demand
• carry conditions
• roll yield regime

The problem?

TradingView doesn’t show term structure properly by default.

I wrote a complete guide explaining:

– What backwardation really means
– How to calculate it correctly
– Why raw spreads are misleading
– How professionals monitor curve slope
– How to automate it

If you trade oil, coffee, wheat, natural gas — this matters.

https://quantribe.io/the-complete-guide-to-backwardation-on-tradingview/

Soybean Meal (ZM) back above 100 & 250 MA — bullish technical shift.

Curve still backwardated (3–6), but total OI is falling → likely short covering, not fresh longs.

Need rising OI for real continuation.

#futures #commodities #agriculture

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/ZM1!/uAACHy6f-Soybean-Meal-Futures-Breakout-on-Short-Covering/

AI can generate Pine Script quickly.

But without supervision, it will:

• hallucinate functions
• misunderstand context
• produce plausible but invalid logic

A simple example proves it.
Full breakdown here 👇

https://quantnomad.com/ai-wrote-my-pine-script-indicator-and-it-lied-to-me/

Most traders analyze front-month volume and open interest.

That’s incomplete.

During roll periods, front-month OI can drop sharply — but total OI across all expirations may actually be rising.

Roll ≠ liquidation.
Front-month weakness ≠ fading participation.

If you want to understand where real capital is moving, you need to track total futures volume & OI across the entire curve.

I explain why this matters (even if you don’t trade futures directly) here:

https://quantribe.io/why-total-futures-volume-and-open-interest-matter-more-than-individual-contracts/

Silver update

After the sharp selloff, Silver rebounded ~15% in just a week.

However, Open Interest declined during the recovery.

This suggests the move is driven mainly by short covering rather than fresh long positioning.

For stronger bullish confirmation, we would need to see price rising together with expanding OI.

For now, this looks like a positioning cleanup phase rather than a confirmed trend continuation.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/SI1!/HPQeTUNx-Silver-15-Rebound-But-OI-Says-It-s-Short-Covering/?social_toast=true

Volatility Update

VIX has moved below the 21MA and is now testing the 100MA — a key structural level.

At the same time, VVIX has declined over the past few sessions and flattened in the latest one. This suggests that demand for tail hedging is cooling and the recent volatility spike is fading.

The VIX futures curve remains in contango, which supports the idea of a normalization phase rather than stress building.

As long as:
• VIX holds below 21MA
• VVIX stays contained
• Contango remains stable

This looks like volatility compression, not a new risk wave.

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/VIX/V2GRbABF-VIX-Testing-100MA-While-VVIX-Flattens-Vol-Reset/?social_toast=true

Beyond Price: Understanding Open Interest Dynamics

Most traders focus only on price.
Some look at volume.
Very few understand what open interest actually reveals.

In this new article, I break down:

• How to interpret changes in total open interest
• The 4 key price + OI scenarios
• How to spot short covering vs new positioning
• Why total OI across all maturities matters
• How rising OI increases squeeze risk
• Why falling OI often signals deleveraging

Open interest doesn’t predict direction.
It measures participation, leverage, and conviction.

If you want to understand whether a move is being built — or being unwound — this framework will help.

I also share a free TradingView indicator that aggregates total OI and total volume properly (without roll distortions).

Read here: https://quantribe.io/beyond-price-understanding-open-interest-dynamics/

Why Does Silver Futures Volume Skip April? 🤔

April Silver contracts exist.
They’re tradable.
They haven’t expired.

Yet most of the volume and open interest sit in May and July.

Why?

Because Silver futures are structured around major delivery months — and April is a serial month.

In the article I explain:

• What serial months actually are
• Why institutions ignore them
• How open interest migrates during roll cycles
• Why liquidity clusters in specific contracts
• What this means for traders

Once you understand contract structure, volume patterns stop looking random — and start looking mechanical.

If you trade metals, this is essential market structure knowledge.

https://quantribe.io/why-silver-futures-volume-skips-april-understanding-serial-months/

📊 New Free Tool Released: FSL | Future Roll Monitor

Rolling futures isn’t just a technical step — it’s a structural transition.

When you move from one contract to the next, several things change at the same time:

• The price relationship between contracts
• The shape of the curve (contango / backwardation)
• Liquidity concentration
• Open interest distribution

If you ignore these, you may be unknowingly paying roll cost or stepping into a different structural regime.

I’ve published a free tool on TradingView that helps monitor:

✔ Front vs next contract
✔ Roll cost (absolute & 😵
✔ Curve direction
✔ Volume ratio (has liquidity shifted?)
✔ Open interest ratio
✔ Roll status

The goal is simple:
Stop rolling blindly. Start understanding structure.

You can find it here:
https://www.tradingview.com/script/bxKNkQln-Future-Roll-Monitor/

More structural tools coming soon.

Markets are moving fast lately, so I built a small TradingView dashboard to monitor multiple instruments directly on the chart.

No more jumping between screeners.

Just one table with all the instruments I track.

Script here:

https://www.tradingview.com/script/886DeGbO-Global-Risk-Dashboard/

I published a new article introducing a free suite of TradingView tools for futures analysis.

The goal was to make term structure and positioning analysis easier directly on the chart.

The suite includes:

• Forward Curve Visualization Tool – see contango/backwardation instantly
• Carry Monitor – track carry dynamics across contracts
• Future Roll Monitor – follow liquidity migration during rolls
• Aggregated Volume & Open Interest – view total market participation

Together they help analyze:

• curve structure
• carry regimes
• roll dynamics
• market positioning

If you trade futures (commodities, volatility, macro), these tools can give you a much clearer view of what’s happening behind price.

Full article:

https://quantribe.io/a-free-suite-to-analyze-futures-markets-in-tradingview/

🚀 Automate Your Trading Journal From TradingView Alerts

Still logging trades manually?

In this tutorial I show how to automatically send TradingView strategy alerts to a Google Sheets trading journal using webhooks and Google Apps Script.

The entire setup is:

TradingView alert
→ webhook
→ Google Apps Script
→ Google Sheets trade log

✅ No Zapier
✅ No Make
✅ 100% free
✅ Works with strategies and Pine Script alerts

Each alert automatically records:

• ticker
• entry / exit
• price
• timestamp
• strategy name

Perfect for building your own automatic trading journal and performance tracker.

📘 Full tutorial + code:
https://quantnomad.com/how-to-build-an-automatic-trading-journal-from-tradingview-alerts-free-no-zapier/

📺 YouTube video:
https://youtu.be/xx0zwQWTfSA

Something unusual is happening in VIX 👀

The curve is almost completely flat — just ~$0.55 from min to max.

This doesn’t happen often…
(~2% of the time since 2004)

And in the past, it often came before big volatility moves.

Full breakdown here:

https://quantribe.io/vix-curve-at-extreme-compression-a-rare-setup/

Perpetual Futures Are Not What You Think

Perpetual futures look simple: no expiry, easy leverage, trade like spot.

But in reality, they behave very differently.

They’re not just about price — they’re driven by:
• funding rates
• positioning
• liquidations

👉 This means you can be right on direction and still lose money.

In many cases, moves are not driven by fundamentals, but by who is overleveraged and forced to unwind.

That’s why we see:
• sharp squeezes
• sudden volatility spikes
• aggressive reversals

I wrote a full breakdown of how this market actually works and what most traders miss.

👉 Read here: https://quantribe.io/perpetual-futures-are-not-what-you-think/

🚀 TradingView just launched an AI Copilot — and I tested it on real charts

It can analyze trends, explain indicators, and answer your questions directly on the chart… but is it actually useful? 🤔

I ran it through real scenarios to see where it helps — and where it falls short.

🎥 Watch the full review: [your link]

Let me know what you think — game changer or just hype? 👇

https://youtu.be/XvhXHsTHmlA

Most divergence is done incorrectly.

Traders often compare:
• price → using highs/lows
• indicators → calculated on closes

That’s not the same data.

On large candles, this creates signals that look like divergence, but in reality momentum hasn’t changed much.

I built a simple tool to fix this:

Source-Aligned Oscillators (TradingView)

You can:
• use different price sources (close, hl2, hlc3, etc.)
• align oscillator calculations with price
• or use High/Low split to see both sides

Helps you see divergence more clearly and consistently.

https://www.tradingview.com/script/Yac6jDI6-Source-Aligned-Oscillators-for-Divergences/