Ray Dalio:
We are at the end of a long-term debt cycle.
• The U.S. is entering a danger zone.
• Debt-to-GDP is at 122%.
• Government interest payments are hitting record highs.
This isn’t sustainable.
The 3 Big Forces Are Colliding:
Dalio says every major market shift is driven by 3 things:
• Debt + monetary policy
• Internal conflict
• External conflict
In 2025, all 3 are peaking at once.
That hasn’t happened since the 1930s.
Most worried about political instability:
“We are in a type of civil war,” Dalio said.
The data supports it:
• Trust in government near record lows
• 2024 election lawsuits in 30+ states
• Rising violence tied to political identity
Markets don’t like chaos.
China vs. the U.S. is heating up:
Dalio says geopolitical tensions are now a market force—not just background noise.
• 60% of global trade touches the South China Sea.
• Taiwan is the next flashpoint.
• Trade, semis, even AI dominance are now in play.
His portfolio? Radically different than 10 years ago.
Ray Dalio is focused on:
• Geographic diversification
• Hard assets like gold
• Neutrality in rising power conflicts
Translation: Don’t bet everything on the U.S.
Dalio’s bottom line:
The U.S. is “at risk of decline.”
Markets are entering a new paradigm.
Old models? Broken.
Passive investing? Riskier than it looks.
What to do about it?
• Get global exposure
• Own inflation-resistant assets
• Don’t ignore political/geopolitical risks
• Stay liquid. Stay nimble.
Dalio says:
“The greatest mistake investors make is thinking the past is a guide to the future.”
We are at the end of a long-term debt cycle.
• The U.S. is entering a danger zone.
• Debt-to-GDP is at 122%.
• Government interest payments are hitting record highs.
This isn’t sustainable.
The 3 Big Forces Are Colliding:
Dalio says every major market shift is driven by 3 things:
• Debt + monetary policy
• Internal conflict
• External conflict
In 2025, all 3 are peaking at once.
That hasn’t happened since the 1930s.
Most worried about political instability:
“We are in a type of civil war,” Dalio said.
The data supports it:
• Trust in government near record lows
• 2024 election lawsuits in 30+ states
• Rising violence tied to political identity
Markets don’t like chaos.
China vs. the U.S. is heating up:
Dalio says geopolitical tensions are now a market force—not just background noise.
• 60% of global trade touches the South China Sea.
• Taiwan is the next flashpoint.
• Trade, semis, even AI dominance are now in play.
His portfolio? Radically different than 10 years ago.
Ray Dalio is focused on:
• Geographic diversification
• Hard assets like gold
• Neutrality in rising power conflicts
Translation: Don’t bet everything on the U.S.
Dalio’s bottom line:
The U.S. is “at risk of decline.”
Markets are entering a new paradigm.
Old models? Broken.
Passive investing? Riskier than it looks.
What to do about it?
• Get global exposure
• Own inflation-resistant assets
• Don’t ignore political/geopolitical risks
• Stay liquid. Stay nimble.
Dalio says:
“The greatest mistake investors make is thinking the past is a guide to the future.”