QCP Asia Colour - 10 April 25
Make America Wealthy Again
If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement.
Respect is Earned, Not Given
In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year.
All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy.
Make America Wealthy Again
If “Make America Wealthy Again” were a stage production, last night marked its dramatic crescendo. President Trump authorised a 90-day pause on proposed tariff hikes, while introducing a blanket 10% reciprocal tariff on all countries except China. Markets responded with fervour: the S&P 500 rallied 9.51% and Nasdaq spiked 12.02%. Bitcoin did not let the market down as it advanced 8.43% while Ethereum added an impressive 13.38%. The crypto market saw $75 million in shorts liquidated within 60 minutes of the announcement.
Respect is Earned, Not Given
In contrast to his broader olive branch, President Trump doubled down on China, escalating tariffs on Chinese imports to 125%, citing Beijing's lack of "respect for world markets". The Chinese Yuan responded accordingly, tumbling to an 18-year low at 7.3498 this morning. Yuan devaluation serves as a partial cushion, preserving export competitiveness in the face of higher U.S. tariffs. With China singled out so explicitly, market participants are bracing for Beijing's counterpunch. Should retaliation materialise in force, the exuberant rally could quickly morph into a classic bull trap.
Not Out of the Woods Yet
The surprise policy pivot temporarily soothed market anxiety, driving short-end crypto vols lower. Still, we advocate caution. Our desk continues to observe topside selling in May and June, suggesting that market makers are using the rally as an opportunity to offload unwanted positions. That said, the purchase of December $100K calls points to longer-term optimism for BTC to revisit the $100K milestone later towards the end of this year.
All eyes now turn to tonight’s CPI data, which is poised to refocus attention the domestic economy. A weaker print would be welcome, helping to offset the inflationary overhang introduced by the blanket tariff policy.
1. Markets React To "Tariff Exclusions" - Monday
2. March Retail Sales data - Wednesday
3. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Wednesday
4. March Housing Starts data - Thursday
5. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index - Thursday
6. ~10% of S&P 500 Companies Report Earnings
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QCP Asia Colour - 14 April 25
Going All-In
After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks.
The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat?
Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs.
So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself.
What about BTC?
In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation.
Going All-In
After a week marked by tariff brinkmanship, risk assets have begun to stabilise, shrugging off what would otherwise be crippling trade barriers between the U.S. and China. With the U.S. now imposing a staggering 145% tariff on Chinese imports and China retaliating at 125%, the escalation reached a point where marginal increases no longer surprise markets. The sheer magnitude of these levies has rendered them symbolic rather than market-moving, a notable departure from the panic triggered during the initial "Liberation Day" shocks.
The Art of Repeal: Olive Branch or Retreat?
Despite both sides maintaining a hawkish public posture, cracks are beginning to show. After Friday's close, the Trump administration quietly exempted smartphones, computers and chips from the latest round of tariffs. This morning, Chinese officials called on the U.S. to 'completely cancel' their reciprocal tariffs.
So who blinks first? Washington is angling for leverage, while Beijing seeks room to breathe. Yet neither can afford to project weakness. Despite this deadlock, risk assets are pricing in optimism, even as the U.S. appears to be negotiating not just with China, but with bond markets and itself.
What about BTC?
In crypto markets, BTC risk reversals remain skewed in favour of puts until June, suggesting that markets are still mildly cautious in the near term. That said, the tone further out is turning more constructive. On Saturday, we observed aggressive buying of 800x BTC-27MAR26-100k-C. BTC continues to consolidate within the $80k-$90k range and could continue trading sideways, adopting a "wait and see" approach to the tariff situation.
A whale deposited $6M $USDC into HyperLiquid and opened a 5x leveraged long position on ETH at $1,624.44.
🇺🇸 ETF FLOWS: Around 17 BTC were bought and 3,760 ETH were sold on Apr. 14.
BTC ETFs saw $1.5M in net inflows.
ETH ETFs saw $6M net outflows.
BTC ETFs saw $1.5M in net inflows.
ETH ETFs saw $6M net outflows.
QCP: Asia Colour - The Art of the Deal
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, “inviting” China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we’re approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed’s attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as “transitory”.
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the “transitory” label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market’s preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where’s Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The “alternative store of value” narrative isn’t gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
The real negotiations begin now. The U.S. has showcased its might and strategic brinkmanship, deploying shock-and-awe tactics through hyperbolic tariff figures. Yet just as markets braced for impact, the U.S. administration offered tariff exemptions and extended an olive branch to Beijing, “inviting” China back to the negotiating table.
Why the sudden pivot?
Bond markets began flashing warning signals. The 10Y UST yield surged to 4.6%, while the 30Y UST pierced 5%, unsettling risk sentiment. If Trump intends to engineer a stock market rebound during his term, long-term yields have to go down, not up.
The bond market selloff has ratcheted up pressure on the Fed to intervene. And it seems we’re approaching the inflection point. Last week, the Fed signalled readiness to act in order to stabilise financial conditions. Governor Waller added weight to that shift, indicating that the Fed’s attention is turning toward recession risk, implicitly downplaying persistent inflation, which they now describe as “transitory”.
Famous last words. The Fed has previously applied the “transitory” label to a variety of inflationary cycles that proved anything but. Still, the Fed put is inching closer, with markets now expecting 3.5 cuts in 2025.
Meanwhile, gold continues to rally amid growing geopolitical tension. With U.S. Treasuries and the dollar losing some of their traditional safe-haven appeal, gold has now emerged as the market’s preferred store of value.
Elsewhere, rising U.S. swap spreads and widening credit default swaps on sovereign U.S. debt are beginning to reflect a more tangible sense of credit concern.
But where’s Bitcoin in all this?
Unlike gold, BTC has not caught a safe-haven bid. The “alternative store of value” narrative isn’t gaining traction in the current macro regime. Positioning remains defensive. Participants are still focused on hedging their downside until greater clarity emerges.
Forwarded from Crypto Galaxy Market Watch (CGMW) (orbitant)
💥 $TRUMP DEV TEAM PULLS 4.6M USDC FROM LIQUIDITY POOL
THEN BRIDGES TO ETHEREUM AND BUYS 4.6M WORTH OF $ETH
BULLISH FOR ETHEREUM!!
THEN BRIDGES TO ETHEREUM AND BUYS 4.6M WORTH OF $ETH
BULLISH FOR ETHEREUM!!