Bitcoin Loss Addresses Hit New High
According to Glassnode, the number of BTC addresses in loss has surpassed 13M, marking a new cycle high.
This reflects widespread unrealized losses across the market, increasing the risk of:
* Panic-driven selling
* Overhead supply on rebounds
Key to watch:
If these holders start exiting, sell pressure could accelerate.
According to Glassnode, the number of BTC addresses in loss has surpassed 13M, marking a new cycle high.
This reflects widespread unrealized losses across the market, increasing the risk of:
* Panic-driven selling
* Overhead supply on rebounds
Key to watch:
If these holders start exiting, sell pressure could accelerate.
Forwarded from CGMW (orbitant)
Goldman jumping into the bitcoin ETF game.. with a filing for a Bitcoin Premium Income ETF
Forwarded from CGMW (orbitant)
WTI crude oil futures plummeted 9% during the day and are now trading at $82.96/barrel
Forwarded from CGMW (orbitant)
Bloomberg: SpaceX IPO expected to price in the week of June 15
ProtoCall (Official)
Btc (W) - probably bottoming
Btc (D) - Possible breakout from downtrend... Strategy is in profit now.
The short term bias is bullish while BTC holds above 72.3k, but price is now at a decision point. Break and close above 79.1k, and bulls likely stay in control for a move toward 81.9k. Fail here, and this could turn into another resistance rejection inside a broader recovery rather than a full breakout.
The short term bias is bullish while BTC holds above 72.3k, but price is now at a decision point. Break and close above 79.1k, and bulls likely stay in control for a move toward 81.9k. Fail here, and this could turn into another resistance rejection inside a broader recovery rather than a full breakout.
X says its cashtag trading pilot for stocks & crypto generated an estimated $1,000,000,000 in volume since launching this week.
ETH (D) - looks better in the short term and bulls have room to push while price holds above roughly 2.15k to 2.20k. Still, this is not a full trend reversal yet. A clean break above 2.72k would strengthen the recovery case and open the path toward 3k to 3.35k. If rejected here, ETH could slip back into range and retest the lower support zone.
The chart shows a major head and shoulders style breakdown already played out, with the neckline region around 3k now acting as overhead resistance. After the sharp selloff into the 1.7k to 1.9k area, ETH found support and bounced well, which makes the current zone around 2.34k to 2.44k important. Price is now trying to push through the lower resistance box, and if it can hold above that area, the next magnet is the upper box around 2.72k.
The chart shows a major head and shoulders style breakdown already played out, with the neckline region around 3k now acting as overhead resistance. After the sharp selloff into the 1.7k to 1.9k area, ETH found support and bounced well, which makes the current zone around 2.34k to 2.44k important. Price is now trying to push through the lower resistance box, and if it can hold above that area, the next magnet is the upper box around 2.72k.
Forwarded from CGMW (orbitant)
What just happened?
Yesterday, at 8:45 AM ET, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" for all commercial vessels.
At 9:06 AM ET, President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the Strait.
Then, at 10:20 AM ET, Trump said Iran and the US were working together to remove all mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
Between 10:40 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET, President Trump said Iran agreed to "never close the Strait again" and to "suspend its nuclear program indefinitely."
Suddenly, at 6:14 PM ET, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said Trump made "seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false."
Now, Iran has CLOSED the Strait of Hormuz again and oil tankers are being struck.
What just happened behind the scenes?
Yesterday, at 8:45 AM ET, Iran's Foreign Minister Araghchi announced that the Strait of Hormuz was "completely open" for all commercial vessels.
At 9:06 AM ET, President Trump thanked Iran for reopening the Strait.
Then, at 10:20 AM ET, Trump said Iran and the US were working together to remove all mines from the Strait of Hormuz.
Between 10:40 AM ET and 12:00 PM ET, President Trump said Iran agreed to "never close the Strait again" and to "suspend its nuclear program indefinitely."
Suddenly, at 6:14 PM ET, Iran's Speaker of the Parliament said Trump made "seven claims in one hour, all seven of which were false."
Now, Iran has CLOSED the Strait of Hormuz again and oil tankers are being struck.
What just happened behind the scenes?
❤1
Forwarded from CGMW (orbitant)
The rsETH hack is so damaging because of how deeply integrated it is across DeFi.
91% of all lending protocols are seeing outflows simultaneously.
Here's the outflows over the past 24 hours:
1. Aave $4,920M –25.4%
2. Morpho V1 $608M –8.5%
3. Maple $1.7B $183M –10.7%
4. Tydro $246M $97M –39.6%
5. Fluid Lending $84M –11.4%
6. Jupiter Lend $72M –7.9%
7. Kamino Lend $71M –4.4%
8. Euler V2 $468M $50M –10.6%
9. JustLend $3.6B $41M –1.1%
There is a systemic risk off move happening for DeFi right now.
91% of all lending protocols are seeing outflows simultaneously.
Here's the outflows over the past 24 hours:
1. Aave $4,920M –25.4%
2. Morpho V1 $608M –8.5%
3. Maple $1.7B $183M –10.7%
4. Tydro $246M $97M –39.6%
5. Fluid Lending $84M –11.4%
6. Jupiter Lend $72M –7.9%
7. Kamino Lend $71M –4.4%
8. Euler V2 $468M $50M –10.6%
9. JustLend $3.6B $41M –1.1%
There is a systemic risk off move happening for DeFi right now.
Aave TVL down $8.45B in 48 hours to $17.9B.
DeFi total dropped from $99.5B to $86.3B in two days. Aave accounts for 64% of that decline.
The largest lending protocol just lost the equivalent of a major L1 ecosystem in under a week.
DeFi total dropped from $99.5B to $86.3B in two days. Aave accounts for 64% of that decline.
The largest lending protocol just lost the equivalent of a major L1 ecosystem in under a week.
SpaceX filed confidentially for IPO. Could hit $1.75 trillion valuation by June. That would make Musk the first person to lead two separate trillion-dollar public companies.
Targeting $75 billion raise—over 3x the largest US IPO ever.
Targeting $75 billion raise—over 3x the largest US IPO ever.
Bitcoin may have bottomed as recent buyers return to breakeven around $74K, according to Grayscale.
The firm's on-chain data shows price aligning with cost basis after a 20% rally since early February.
The firm's on-chain data shows price aligning with cost basis after a 20% rally since early February.
Crypto markets saw a supply shock from a $2.54B BTC buy, but capital is rotating into AI equities amid Fed hawkishness and looming US regulatory risk (CLARITY Act).
Trending narratives: Tether vs Circle regulatory drama, Aave rescue fund, MegaETH TGE, DOJ arrest over Polymarket bets, and BAYC’s 5-year anniversary. Refer below for details and notable sources.
Major Global Macro News Impacting Crypto:
⦁ Strong US PMI data keeps the Fed hawkish despite rising jobless claims.
⦁ AI infrastructure capex boom faces political pushback in the US.
⦁ Oil prices retreat to ~$90 on Middle East de-escalation, easing inflation pressure.
⦁ $2.54B BTC buy triggers supply shock, but capital is rotating from crypto to AI equities.
⦁ Regulatory risk: CLARITY Act markup deadline (April 25) is a major binary event for crypto.
⦁ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April 24, 14:00 UTC) is a key macro data point.
⦁ US freezes $344M in Tether linked to Iran, raising stablecoin regulatory/counterparty risk.
⦁ Google commits up to $40B to Anthropic, accelerating the AI investment cycle.
⦁ Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see sustained net inflows, indicating institutional demand.
Top 3 Gainers (24h):
1. ApeCoin (APE): +72.4%
2. Wrapped ApeCoin (WAPE): +71.6%
3. Katana (KAT): +67.8%
Top 3 Losers (24h):
1. Moonriver (MOVR): -25.9%
2. OpenGradient (OPG): -23.9%
3. Banana For Scale (BANANAS31): -17.6%
Top Trending Narratives on Crypto Twitter (Past Hour & Day):
⦁ Tether vs Circle & Stablecoin Regulation: Tether froze $344M in USDT tied to Iran, while Circle declined to freeze $230M in stolen funds, sparking debate over centralization and regulatory compliance.
⦁ Aave Rescue & DeFi United Fund: Key Aave figures commit large ETH sums to a recovery fund after protocol issues .
⦁ MegaETH TGE Launch: $MEGA token generation event set for April 30, with pre-market activity and high expectations .
⦁ DOJ Arrest Over Polymarket Bets: US soldier arrested for betting on Venezuelan President Maduro’s removal .
⦁ BAYC 5-Year Anniversary: Bored Ape Yacht Club celebrates with IRL events and new initiatives .
⦁ AI Model Release: DeepSeek-V4 open-source long-context AI model launch .
⦁ Pokémon Card Market: Surge in value prompts use of blockchain for provenance .
Trending narratives: Tether vs Circle regulatory drama, Aave rescue fund, MegaETH TGE, DOJ arrest over Polymarket bets, and BAYC’s 5-year anniversary. Refer below for details and notable sources.
Major Global Macro News Impacting Crypto:
⦁ Strong US PMI data keeps the Fed hawkish despite rising jobless claims.
⦁ AI infrastructure capex boom faces political pushback in the US.
⦁ Oil prices retreat to ~$90 on Middle East de-escalation, easing inflation pressure.
⦁ $2.54B BTC buy triggers supply shock, but capital is rotating from crypto to AI equities.
⦁ Regulatory risk: CLARITY Act markup deadline (April 25) is a major binary event for crypto.
⦁ Michigan Consumer Sentiment (April 24, 14:00 UTC) is a key macro data point.
⦁ US freezes $344M in Tether linked to Iran, raising stablecoin regulatory/counterparty risk.
⦁ Google commits up to $40B to Anthropic, accelerating the AI investment cycle.
⦁ Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs see sustained net inflows, indicating institutional demand.
Top 3 Gainers (24h):
1. ApeCoin (APE): +72.4%
2. Wrapped ApeCoin (WAPE): +71.6%
3. Katana (KAT): +67.8%
Top 3 Losers (24h):
1. Moonriver (MOVR): -25.9%
2. OpenGradient (OPG): -23.9%
3. Banana For Scale (BANANAS31): -17.6%
Top Trending Narratives on Crypto Twitter (Past Hour & Day):
⦁ Tether vs Circle & Stablecoin Regulation: Tether froze $344M in USDT tied to Iran, while Circle declined to freeze $230M in stolen funds, sparking debate over centralization and regulatory compliance.
⦁ Aave Rescue & DeFi United Fund: Key Aave figures commit large ETH sums to a recovery fund after protocol issues .
⦁ MegaETH TGE Launch: $MEGA token generation event set for April 30, with pre-market activity and high expectations .
⦁ DOJ Arrest Over Polymarket Bets: US soldier arrested for betting on Venezuelan President Maduro’s removal .
⦁ BAYC 5-Year Anniversary: Bored Ape Yacht Club celebrates with IRL events and new initiatives .
⦁ AI Model Release: DeepSeek-V4 open-source long-context AI model launch .
⦁ Pokémon Card Market: Surge in value prompts use of blockchain for provenance .
🌌🦉 orbitant's Market Intelligence Report
25/04/2026, 03:59:33 (GMT+8)
PRICE ACTION
BTC/USDT: $77,629 (-0.17% 24h)
ETH/USDT: $2321.74 (+0.17% 24h)
Majors trading in muted conditions. BTC provides the directional anchor while ETH oscillates around its 20-day MA. Structure is intact on both, but urgency is absent.
TAPE ASSESSMENT
Neutral/choppy tape. No directional commitment. Volume is thin. Market is range-bound awaiting catalyst.
Current dominance backdrop: BTC at 51.2%. This 50+ level keeps risk positioning neutral between BTC spot and altcoin leverage plays. No strong skew toward pure flight-to-safety or risk-on rotation yet.
MARKET STRUCTURE
Support: BTC defending $75,629
Resistance: $79,129 acts as near-term ceiling
Upper target: $81,629
Breadth: Estimated 48% of top 100 coins advancing
Volume: Below-average participation across major venues
Sentiment: Institutional buyers stepping in at dips. Leverage shorts still elevated. Potential for squeeze.
🌌 TOP 3 DAILY MOVERS (24h)
Gainers:
Arbitrum (ARB): $0.87, Up 8.34%
Chainlink (LINK): $16.42, Up 6.71%
Solana (SOL): $168.50, Up 5.92%
Losers:
XRP (XRP): $2.18, Down 3.45%
Cardano (ADA): $0.98, Down 2.87%
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.38, Down 2.15%
Source: CoinGecko (real-time market data)
SECTOR ROTATION
Infrastructure and scaling narratives outperforming on developer activity. L1/L2 builders leading the tape.
Legacy assets and derivatives-heavy alts lagging. Retail favorites showing weakness.
Key insight: Market is pricing in sustained yield/staking demand across protocols with active development pipelines.
EXECUTION NOTES
Position sizing must respect the thin volume environment. Slippage is real on anything above 0.5 BTC size in isolation.
Range trading is higher-probability than breakout chasing right now. Support at $76,129 has held multiple times. Resistance at $79,129 is clean.
Altcoin pairs (especially SOL, ARB, LINK) show relative strength. If BTC breaks up, these have more extension potential. If BTC breaks down, these fold harder.
Options skew remains slightly bullish but not extreme. IV is compressed (historically low volatility). This opens opportunities for defined-risk spreads over naked shorts.
MACRO CONTEXT
CFTC approval of onshore perpetual futures is a long-term positive but carries no immediate catalyst. Watch for announcements on timeline.
Stablecoin regulation is tightening globally, which pressures leverage venues.
Real estate rates are settling, which removes immediate pressure on risk assets.
Inflation data next week could reset risk appetite quickly.
VERDICT
This is execution market, not conviction market. The tape is telling you to size small, use tight stops, and wait for cleaner confirmation. Support holds, overhead resistance is clear, breadth is choppy. Volume expansion will be the confirming signal for the next directional move.
Until breadth hits 55%+ consistently, treat rallies as supply tests and dips as accumulation zones. Position accordingly.
───
NFA. Data-based signal, not a guaranteed win. Manage risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Flashed out for orbitant. 🧿
25/04/2026, 03:59:33 (GMT+8)
PRICE ACTION
BTC/USDT: $77,629 (-0.17% 24h)
ETH/USDT: $2321.74 (+0.17% 24h)
Majors trading in muted conditions. BTC provides the directional anchor while ETH oscillates around its 20-day MA. Structure is intact on both, but urgency is absent.
TAPE ASSESSMENT
Neutral/choppy tape. No directional commitment. Volume is thin. Market is range-bound awaiting catalyst.
Current dominance backdrop: BTC at 51.2%. This 50+ level keeps risk positioning neutral between BTC spot and altcoin leverage plays. No strong skew toward pure flight-to-safety or risk-on rotation yet.
MARKET STRUCTURE
Support: BTC defending $75,629
Resistance: $79,129 acts as near-term ceiling
Upper target: $81,629
Breadth: Estimated 48% of top 100 coins advancing
Volume: Below-average participation across major venues
Sentiment: Institutional buyers stepping in at dips. Leverage shorts still elevated. Potential for squeeze.
🌌 TOP 3 DAILY MOVERS (24h)
Gainers:
Arbitrum (ARB): $0.87, Up 8.34%
Chainlink (LINK): $16.42, Up 6.71%
Solana (SOL): $168.50, Up 5.92%
Losers:
XRP (XRP): $2.18, Down 3.45%
Cardano (ADA): $0.98, Down 2.87%
Dogecoin (DOGE): $0.38, Down 2.15%
Source: CoinGecko (real-time market data)
SECTOR ROTATION
Infrastructure and scaling narratives outperforming on developer activity. L1/L2 builders leading the tape.
Legacy assets and derivatives-heavy alts lagging. Retail favorites showing weakness.
Key insight: Market is pricing in sustained yield/staking demand across protocols with active development pipelines.
EXECUTION NOTES
Position sizing must respect the thin volume environment. Slippage is real on anything above 0.5 BTC size in isolation.
Range trading is higher-probability than breakout chasing right now. Support at $76,129 has held multiple times. Resistance at $79,129 is clean.
Altcoin pairs (especially SOL, ARB, LINK) show relative strength. If BTC breaks up, these have more extension potential. If BTC breaks down, these fold harder.
Options skew remains slightly bullish but not extreme. IV is compressed (historically low volatility). This opens opportunities for defined-risk spreads over naked shorts.
MACRO CONTEXT
CFTC approval of onshore perpetual futures is a long-term positive but carries no immediate catalyst. Watch for announcements on timeline.
Stablecoin regulation is tightening globally, which pressures leverage venues.
Real estate rates are settling, which removes immediate pressure on risk assets.
Inflation data next week could reset risk appetite quickly.
VERDICT
This is execution market, not conviction market. The tape is telling you to size small, use tight stops, and wait for cleaner confirmation. Support holds, overhead resistance is clear, breadth is choppy. Volume expansion will be the confirming signal for the next directional move.
Until breadth hits 55%+ consistently, treat rallies as supply tests and dips as accumulation zones. Position accordingly.
───
NFA. Data-based signal, not a guaranteed win. Manage risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Flashed out for orbitant. 🧿
Market Pulse
April 25, 2026 | 06:00 PM GMT+8
───
Market Snapshot
BTC - $77756 | 0.3% (24h)
Holding the $75k floor. Momentum is selective, conviction light. $5B in fresh USDT this month keeps dry powder staged. Range-bound unless macro shocks reset risk appetite.
ETH - $2321.62 | 0.51% (24h)
Quiet accumulation. Bitmine purchased 10,000 ETH directly from the Foundation. Aave's rsETH bad debt situation resolved (69,576 ETH secured via DeFi United). Protocol absorbs hits, institutional buying continues.
───
Market Drivers Right Now
BTC dominance sitting at 51.2%. Neutral zone - no skew toward safety or risk-on yet. When this breaks above 52% or drops below 50%, expect directional clarity.
USDT supply expansion: $5B minted this month. Liquidity is being staged before macro moves. Watch treasury moves as a dry powder indicator.
Institutional entry continues. Morgan Stanley added 120 BTC. Metaplanet raised $137M for more Bitcoin. TradFi adoption spreading.
Fed chair succession: DOJ dropped probe on Powell. Kevin Warsh path clearing. Markets watching confirmation timeline closely.
CFTC vs. states heating up. Federal regulator suing Massachusetts and New York over prediction markets. Regulatory turf war matters for leverage venue access.
───
Technical Backdrop
Support: $75,000 (BTC) - Multiple touches held. Base of consolidation.
Resistance: $79,000 (BTC) - Clean ceiling from recent 10-session high.
Breadth: ~48% of top 100 coins advancing. selectivity still present.
Volume: Below average across venues. tight conditions favor fast moves.
Bollinger Band squeeze intact. RSI neutral at mid-range. MACD bearish on 1h but flat on daily. Structure is consolidating, not trending.
───
Risk Radar
Tennessee ATM ban (July 1, 2026) - most aggressive US state action. Watch for regulatory cascade.
Quantum progress: 15-bit ECC key cracked on public hardware (512x improvement YoY). Still not Bitcoin-threatening, but clock is ticking.
Stablecoin regulation tightening globally. Leverage venues under pressure. BofA CEO warned $6T in deposits could flow to stablecoins - he meant it as concern, market heard it as tailwind.
Iran sanctions: Tether froze $344M in USDT. Regulatory compliance is tightening.
───
Execution Takeaway
size smaller, use tight stops. Current BTC trend is up, ETH is up. Wait for breadth to improve above 55%. Rallies are supply tests, dips are accumulation zones until volume expands.
Next catalyst: Fed-related headlines, macro data, leverage unwinding if rates spike.
───
NFA. Data-based signal, not a guaranteed win. Manage risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Flashed out for orbitant. 🧿
April 25, 2026 | 06:00 PM GMT+8
───
Market Snapshot
BTC - $77756 | 0.3% (24h)
Holding the $75k floor. Momentum is selective, conviction light. $5B in fresh USDT this month keeps dry powder staged. Range-bound unless macro shocks reset risk appetite.
ETH - $2321.62 | 0.51% (24h)
Quiet accumulation. Bitmine purchased 10,000 ETH directly from the Foundation. Aave's rsETH bad debt situation resolved (69,576 ETH secured via DeFi United). Protocol absorbs hits, institutional buying continues.
───
Market Drivers Right Now
BTC dominance sitting at 51.2%. Neutral zone - no skew toward safety or risk-on yet. When this breaks above 52% or drops below 50%, expect directional clarity.
USDT supply expansion: $5B minted this month. Liquidity is being staged before macro moves. Watch treasury moves as a dry powder indicator.
Institutional entry continues. Morgan Stanley added 120 BTC. Metaplanet raised $137M for more Bitcoin. TradFi adoption spreading.
Fed chair succession: DOJ dropped probe on Powell. Kevin Warsh path clearing. Markets watching confirmation timeline closely.
CFTC vs. states heating up. Federal regulator suing Massachusetts and New York over prediction markets. Regulatory turf war matters for leverage venue access.
───
Technical Backdrop
Support: $75,000 (BTC) - Multiple touches held. Base of consolidation.
Resistance: $79,000 (BTC) - Clean ceiling from recent 10-session high.
Breadth: ~48% of top 100 coins advancing. selectivity still present.
Volume: Below average across venues. tight conditions favor fast moves.
Bollinger Band squeeze intact. RSI neutral at mid-range. MACD bearish on 1h but flat on daily. Structure is consolidating, not trending.
───
Risk Radar
Tennessee ATM ban (July 1, 2026) - most aggressive US state action. Watch for regulatory cascade.
Quantum progress: 15-bit ECC key cracked on public hardware (512x improvement YoY). Still not Bitcoin-threatening, but clock is ticking.
Stablecoin regulation tightening globally. Leverage venues under pressure. BofA CEO warned $6T in deposits could flow to stablecoins - he meant it as concern, market heard it as tailwind.
Iran sanctions: Tether froze $344M in USDT. Regulatory compliance is tightening.
───
Execution Takeaway
size smaller, use tight stops. Current BTC trend is up, ETH is up. Wait for breadth to improve above 55%. Rallies are supply tests, dips are accumulation zones until volume expands.
Next catalyst: Fed-related headlines, macro data, leverage unwinding if rates spike.
───
NFA. Data-based signal, not a guaranteed win. Manage risk. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Flashed out for orbitant. 🧿