This is a high number for a cold Dodger Stadium night.

Taillon gets the ball after six innings of one-run ball against the Mets, and Sheehan just held Colorado to two earned over five. Neither guy needs to dominate for this to stay under 9.

The Dodgers…

Minnesota is up 2-1 and just held Denver to 96 in this building.

That is the whole case. The Wolves have made this series physical enough that Denver is not getting the clean Jokic-Murray rhythm it wants, and Minnesota has the bodies to keep that pressure…

Phoenix has scored 84 and 107 in the first two games of this series.

That is the under path. OKC can speed you up, but Phoenix is still having to create against the best defensive unit in the league without clean rim pressure or easy half-court organization.…

Tampa is 14-11, Minnesota is 12-14, and the Rays get McClanahan at home.

McClanahan’s 5.00 ERA is not pretty, but the contact profile is still fine. Opponents are hitting .191 with a .583 OPS against him, and the damage has mostly come from walks.

That…

Philadelphia has a .577 OPS against lefties, and Sale already held them to one run.

That was eight days ago: 7 innings, 5 hits, 1 walk, 7 strikeouts. This is the same matchup, with the same swing-and-miss problem on the Phillies side.

Nola is the risk,…

Cleveland is 15-13. Toronto is 11-15. The better record is the dog.

Corbin has been solid, but it is still a three-start sample. Cleveland’s split against lefties is the cleaner read: .258/.325/.417 with 8 homers in 280 plate appearances.

Cecconi is ugly…

Recency bias is expensive because the market already knows what you just watched.

A team wins by 28 on national TV and everyone suddenly upgrades them. A QB throws 3 picks and everyone suddenly treats him like he forgot how to play. The game feels more important…

Detroit is +7 in Cade Cunningham’s 119 minutes this series.

That is the handicap. The non-Cade minutes have been ugly, but Game 4 is not a regular-season rotation spot. Detroit can tighten that window and keep its best advantage on the floor longer.

Orlando…

This series is already living under this number.

Three of four games finished at 221 or lower, and the last two landed at 209 and 208. Denver scored 96 in both of those games.

Now Minnesota is trying to close without Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo…

New York is 30-10 at MSG and just answered this series with a 114-98 win in Atlanta.

That matters because Game 4 was not Brunson carrying them. Towns gave them 20 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists, Anunoby added 22, and the Knicks still had another level…

Game 4 needed overtime to get to five goals, and the 5-on-5 offense was not clean.

Dallas scored both regulation goals on the power play. Minnesota went 0-for-4 with three shots, and its tying goal came off a second effort at the crease with 5:20 left.
…

Toronto has a .644 OPS vs lefties and gets Tolle after his 11-K debut.

Tolle just gave Boston 6 innings of 1-run ball with 11 strikeouts and one walk against the Yankees. That is the cleanest starter form in this matchup.

Yesavage has stuff, but this is…

Holmes has allowed 7 earned runs through 30 innings.

Washington gets the stronger starter problem first. Holmes is at a 2.10 ERA, 1.03 WHIP, and a .591 OPS allowed through five starts.

Littell is the uncomfortable piece at 7.56, but this Mets offense is…

Tampa is 17-11, on a five-game run, and still getting plus money.

Nick Martinez is the cleaner starting point. Through five starts, he owns a 2.10 ERA and 1.10 WHIP.

Bibee has been much easier to pressure: 4.45 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, and 5 homers allowed in 30.1…

Cubs @ Padres
Over 8 (-120) 1 unit

These lineups are averaging 10.09 combined runs per game.

Buehler has a 5.75 ERA and 1.62 WHIP, and the Cubs own a .748 OPS vs righties.

Cabrera’s ERA is clean, but 11 walks in 29.2 innings gives San Diego paths to traffic.…

The last two Rockets-Lakers games landed on 220 and 211, and Game 4 got there without clean Lakers offense.

LA turned it over 23 times and shot 5-of-22 from three. That is usually an under script, but Houston’s pressure flipped those mistakes into 30 points…

Philadelphia is 23-8-6 after a loss and gets Game 6 at home.

Pittsburgh made this series uncomfortable, but the full picture still points back to Philly. The Flyers won the first three games by a combined 11-4 and still lead 3-2 after two tight losses.
…

Kikuchi has allowed 46 baserunners in 29 innings. That is the handicap.

Chicago is a better lefty matchup than its overall profile shows, with a .768 OPS and 16 homers against LHP. Kikuchi is sitting on a 6.21 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with 13 walks.

Fedde’s ERA…