Coffee futures climbed to a near 50-year high in New York amid fears of a global supply shortage and the threat of tariffs on imports into the US. #Coffee

Via #FinancialTimes

80% of CBE’s Transactions Are Now Digital


CBE has 30 million mobile money customers, nearly 10 million mobile banking users, and around 21 million debit cardholders.

#Shega

Ethiopia’s state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia CBE) has made strides in digital banking services, with digital channels handling 80% of its transactions during the first quarter. CBE facilitated around 402 million transactions across multiple access channels, contributing more than 50% of the total digital banking services within the financial industry.

The Bank’s quarterly publication indicates a formidable customer base with its mobile money service CBE Birr reaching 30 million customers, nearly 10 million users on its mobile banking service, and around 21 million debit card users. However, the report did not disclose the total transaction value for the period.

Ethiopia’s biggest bank has also continued to ensure the integrity of its digital banking infrastructure by subscribing to international certifications.

Hibret Bank made a profit of 3.08 billion birr!!

During the Bank's 27th general meeting of shareholders, it stated that the total amount of deposits reached 74.65 billion birr. Compared to the amount of last year, it showed an increase of 10.11 billion birr.

The bank reported a profit of 3.08 billion birr before tax, an increase of 22.5 million birr from last year.

The bank's total loan amount, including interest-free financing, reached 68.89 billion birr.

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@PatternFin

ዩጋንዳ በሀከሮች 17 ሚሊዮን ዶላር ተዘረፈች።

ዩጋንዳ በማዕከላዊ ባንኳ ላይ በተፈጸመ የሳይበር ጥቃት 62 ቢሊዮን ሽልንግ ወይም 17 ሚሊዮን ዶላር ተዘርፋለች፡፡

ቢው ቪዥን ጋዜጣ እንደዘገበው ምዝበራው የተፈጸመው ሀከሮች (ጠላፊዎች) የባንኩን አይቲ ክፍል ከተቆጣጠሩ በኋላ ነው፡፡

ምዝበራው ባሳለፍነው ማክሰኞ ነው እንደተፈጸመ የተነገረው።

ምዝበራው በደቡብ እስያ የሚገኙ ጠላፊዎች የተፈጸመ እንደሆነ ገንዘቡ በመጨረሻ ወደ ጃፓን እንደተላከ ባንኩ አስታውቋል፡፡

ባንኩ ከተመዘበረው ገንዘብ ውስጥ ግማሹን አስመልሻለሁ ብሏል፡፡

የሀገሪቱ ፕሬዝዳንት ዮሪ ሙሴቪኒ መንግስታቸው በሚስተዳድረው ባንክ ላይ የተፈጸመው ምዝበራ እንዲመረመር አዘዋል።

ዴይሊ ሞኒተር ባወጣው ዘገባ ይህ ምዝበራ የተፈጸመው በባንኩ የውስጥ ሰራተኞች እርዳታ አማካኝነት ሳይሆን አይቀርም።

የፕሬዝዳንቱን ጥዕዛዝ ተከትሎ ፖሊስ ሁኔታውን እየመረመረ ነው ተብሏል። በቅርቡ ውጤቱን ለህዝብ ይፋ እንደሚያደርግ ተገልጿል።

ዩጋንዳ በተደጋጋሚ መሰል የበይነ መረብ / ሳይበር ጥቆቶችን ስታስተናግድ የአሁኑ የመጀሪያዋ አይደለም።

በተለይም በቴሌኮም ኩባንያዎች እና የገንዘብ አተላላፊ ተቋማቶቿ ላይ በተደጋጋሚ ዝርፊያ ተፈጽሟል፡፡

በባንኮች ላይም መሰል ምዝበራዎች የሚፈጸሙ ቢሆንም ባንኮች ከደንበኞቻቸው ሊደርስ የሚችልን ጉዳት በመፍራት ምን ያህል ገንዘብ እንደተሰረቁ ከመናገር ይቆጠባሉ፡፡

ይህን መረጃ አል አይን ኒውስ ቢው ቪዥን ጋዜጣና ዴይሊ ሞኒተርን ዋቢ በማድረግ ነው ያጋራው።

@tikvahethiopia

Ethiopia’s Exchange Rate Reform: New Study Reveals Risks and Opportunities

The Ethiopian Economics Association (EEA) has released a new working paper, WP 26, authored by Yetsedaw Emagne and Tadele Ferede, offering insights into Ethiopia’s transition to a market-determined foreign exchange rate policy aimed at reunifying official and parallel market rates. The paper highlights that the adoption of a floating exchange rate regime has significantly reduced the gap between the two rates, with the margin dropping to less than 10% by the third week of August 2024, compared to 98% before the policy’s announcement. Using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, the authors evaluate two exchange rate adjustment scenarios: gradual adjustment and full reunification. Both scenarios are associated with economic contraction and inflation spikes, but the reunification scenario is deemed riskier, leading to more severe disruptions and slower recovery. The findings emphasize the need for careful and pragmatic management of the reform to mitigate potential economic challenges, providing valuable guidance for policymakers navigating Ethiopia's exchange rate reforms.

@EEA Ethiopian Economics Association

Read the full paper

Over the past week, the Brewed Buck has been under intensifying pressure, revealing cracks in the foreign exchange market. Banks were seen adopting varied tactics to respond to the scarcity of dollars, with Dashen Bank emerging as a notable outlier in its aggressive pricing strategies.

In the six days beginning November 18, the Birr continued its downward trajectory against the U.S. Dollar. The average buying rate was 121.61 Br a dollar, while the selling rate averaged 124.16 Br, maintaining a spread of approximately 2.05pc. The consistent spread across most banks demonstrated the National Bank of Ethiopia's (NBE) firm grip on forex transaction margins, limiting volatility in an already constrained market.

However, beneath this surface stability, noteworthy variations emerged among individual banks. The state-owned Commercial Bank of Ethiopia (CBE) consistently posted the lowest buying rate of 119.2 Br a dollar throughout the week. Its conservative stance likely comes from CBE's executives' desire to prioritize stable foreign exchange flows over short-term profitability, aligning with the Central Bank's objectives to maintain market equilibrium.

Dashen Bank adopted an aggressive approach. It offered the highest buying rates, surpassing 123 Br a dollar on multiple occasions. On November 23, Dashen's selling rate peaked at 127.2114 Br a dollar, much higher than its competitors. The bold strategy could show Dashen's keenness to optimise foreign currency inflows where the forex supply has been constrained, possibly responding to heightened demand pressures within its client base.

Other banks, such as Wegagen, Abyssinia, and Awash, also posted higher rates near the market's upper end but maintained steadier trajectories. Their more cautious strategies exhibited a balanced approach to market shifts, avoiding the extremes of Dashen's pricing. Adding to the market's complexity, the National Bank of Ethiopia (NBE) displayed unusual fluctuations in its own rates.

On November 18, the Central Bank's posted spread aligned with the industry average at 2.05pc. However, it dropped sharply to 0.77pc on November 19 before climbing back to 1.62pc by November 23. The irregularity may signal the Central Bank's efforts to influence market behaviour or to test the elasticity of forex demand. It could also be about policy adjustments under pressure to manage the widening gap between official and parallel market rates.

The divergence in banks' strategies and the Central Bank's rate fluctuations expose underlying tensions in the forex regime. The enduring pressure on the Brewed Buck stems from structural challenges within the macroeconomic framework. A liquidity crunch, compounded by a widening trade deficit and limited external inflows, has intensified competition among banks for scarce forex holdings. The consistent depreciation of the Birr also signals deepening structural macroeconomic imbalances, calling for broader reforms to stabilise the foreign exchange market.

Last week's trends could be a manifestation of these constraints, with banks like Dashen willing to test the boundaries of regulatory constraints to secure liquidity.

As the Birr's erosion became more pronounced in the latter half of the week, concerns over forex supply intensified. Banks will likely continue competing aggressively for available liquidity unless underlying macroeconomic issues are addressed.

@AddisFortune

Weekly crypto update!

የኢትዮጵያ ብሔራዊ ባንክ ህዳር 26 ቀን 2024 ለፋይናንስ ተቋማት በላከው ደብዳቤ መሰረት ባንኮች ደንበኞቻቸው የባንክ ሂሳባቸውን ለመክፈት እና ለማስተካከል ብሄራዊ መታወቂያ (ፋይዳ) እንዲሰጡ ትእዛዝ ሰጥቷል። ይህ ተልዕኮ የፋይናንስ ስርዓቱን ደህንነት እና ታማኝነት ለማሳደግ ያለመ ሲሆን በተጨማሪም የፋይናንስ ማካተትን በማስተዋወቅ እና ማጭበርበርን ለመዋጋት። በቅርቡ በሥራ ላይ የሚውል ብሄራዊ መታወቂያ በመላው ኢትዮጵያ የባንክ ሒሳቦችን ለመክፈት እና ለማቆየት እንዲሁም ነባር ደንበኞቻቸው እስከ 2026 ድረስ ብሔራዊ መታወቂያቸውን እንዲያቀርቡ እና ወደ አካውንታቸው እንዲቀላቀሉ ማድረግ ግዴታ ይሆናል።
ይህ እርምጃ ደንበኛዎን ይወቁ (KYC) ሂደቶችን ለማመቻቸት፣ የውሂብ ባለቤትነትን ለማረጋገጥ እና ደህንነቱ የተጠበቀ የባንክ ስራዎችን ለማመቻቸት ያለመ ነው።

ይህንን ሂደት ተግባራዊ ለማድረግ በብሔራዊ ባንክ የቀረበው ዋና የጊዜ ሰሌዳ፡-
● የአዲስ አበባ ቅርንጫፎች፡ ከጥር 1 ቀን 2025 ጀምሮ በአዲስ አበባ ውስጥ ያሉ ሁሉም የባንክ ቅርንጫፎች ፋይዳ አካውንት ለመክፈት ይጠይቃሉ።

● በአገር አቀፍ ደረጃ በትልልቅ ከተሞች ያሉ ቅርንጫፎች፡ ከጁላይ 1 ቀን 2025 ጀምሮ በመላ አገሪቱ የሚገኙ ዋና ዋና የከተማ ማዕከሎችም ይህንን መስፈርት ይቀበላሉ።

● በአገር አቀፍ ደረጃ ሁሉም ቅርንጫፎች፡ በጃንዋሪ 1፣ 2026 ፋይዳ በኢትዮጵያ ውስጥ ባሉ ሁሉም ቅርንጫፎች የግዴታ ይሆናል።

● ነባር የባንክ ሒሳቦች፡- ነባር መለያዎች ላላቸው ደንበኞች እስከ ዲሴምበር 31፣ 2026 ድረስ ተግባራዊ ይሆናል።

NBE ከጀመራቸው ምርጥ ስራዎች የሆነውን Financial Stability Report ሁለተኛው ሪፖርት ዛሬ ይፋ ተደርጓል።

መልካም ንባብ!

NBE's 2024 Financial Stability Report Summary:

Key Numbers and Outlook: 2023/24 vs 2022/23

Economic Growth:
 GDP grew by 8.1% from 7.2%
 Projected to grow by 8.4% in 2024/25

Sector contributions to GDP in 2024:
 Services: 40.2% (↓ from 40.3% in 2023)
 Industry: 29.1% (↑ from 28.8% in 2023)
 Agriculture: 31.8% (↓ from 32.1% in 2023)
Inflation Trends:
 Inflation reduced from 29.3% to 19.9%
 Projected inflation to 12% by June 2026

Foreign Exchange Reserves:
 Foreign Exchange Reserves ↑ by 240%
 Exports grew by 81% (Q1)
 Remittances increased by 26%.

Debt and Deficit:
 Public extrnl debt ↓ frm 17.2% to 13.7% of GDP
 Domestic debt ↓ from 22.1% to 18.7% of GDP
 Fiscal deficit ↓ to 2.1% of GDP ↓ from 2.5%
 External debt to reach 28.3 % of GDP in 2025, due to birr depreciation (IMF projection)

Financial Sector Highlights Banking Sector:
 Assets reached 3.4 billion birr ↑ 15.1% (YoY)
 Assets make up 96.1% of ttl financial system
 Total deposits ↑ to 2.5 T birr, a 15.4% ↑ YoY
 Loans & bonds ↑ to 2.2 T birr, 16.1% growth

CBE's Market Share Decline
 CBE's Assets declined to 47.9% ↓ from 49.5%
 Deposits dropped from 48.7% to 47.1%.
 Share of total capital fell to 24.2% from 27.5%
Despite declines, CBE remains systemically important bank, with a strong capital adequacy ratio and liquidity position exceeding regulatory requirements.

Microfinance (MF) & Capital Goods (CG) Finance Sectors:
 MF assets fell by 2.6%, ending at 60.1 B. birr
 CGF assets grew by 18.5% reaching 6.4 B. birr

Insurance Sector:
 Total assets increased by 32%, totaling 65.6 billion birr

Number of Financial players:
 Total number of Banks: 32
 Micro-Finance: 53 (↑ 10.42 %) from 48
 Insurance companies: 18
 Payments Instrument lssuers & PSO: 11 ( ↑10%)
 Capital goods finance: 6
 Re-insurance company: 1

Key Financial Ratios:
 Loans as a % of GDP ↓ from 21.7% to 19.0%
 The banking sector’s capital adequacy ratio remains well above the regulatory minimum of 8%

Digital Financial Services (DFS): Transactions processed through digital channels:
 Number: increased by 38% YoY
 Value reached 1.1 trillion birr, a 44% increase
 Access points for DFS increased by 17.4%
Capital

Market Initiatives:
 ESX is set to launch in late 2024.
 Initial trading in the interbank money market processed transactions worth 20 billion birr within three weeks

Notable Variations from 2023
 Banking sector deposit growth slowed from 24.6% in 2023 to 15.4% in 2024
 The GDP-to-total-assets ratio fell from 37.6% in 2023 to 29.5% in 2024 due to faster GDP growth

What else do you think should be added in the summary? Comment below👇

#ባንኮች_በሚሰጡት_ዓመታዊ_ብድር_ላይ_የተጣለው_ገደብ_ሊሻሻል_ነው!

ባንኮች የሚያቀርቡት ዓመታዊ የብድር መጠን ከ14 በመቶ እንዳይበልጥ ገደብ የሚጥለውና ከአንድ ዓመት በላይ ተግባራዊ ሲደረግ የቆየው የኢትዮጵያ ብሔራዊ ባንክ መመርያ ሊሻሻል መሆኑ ተሰማ፡፡ ባንኮች በሚሰጡት ዓመታዊ ብድር ላይ የተጣለው ገደብ ሊሻሻል ነው።

በበርካታ ባንኮች ላይ ጫና እየፈጠረ መሆኑ በተደጋጋሚ ሲነገርለት የቆየው ይህ መመርያ፣ ገደቡን እስከ ማንሳት የሚያስችል ማሻሻያ የሚደረግበት ስለመሆኑ ሪፖርተር ያገኘው መረጃ ያመለክታል፡፡

ሐሙስ ኅዳር 19 ቀን 2017 ዓ.ም. የአዲስ አበባ ንግድና ዘርፍ ማኅበራት ምክር ቤት ባዘጋጀው የውይይት መድረክ ላይ የተገኙት የኢትዮጵያ ብሔራዊ ባንክ የውጭ ኢኮኖሚ ትንተናና ዓለም አቀፍ ግንኙነት ዳይሬክተር አቶ ሀብታሙ ወርቅነህ፣ መመርያውን ለማሻሻል ዝግጅት እየተደረገ መሆኑንና ማሻሻያውም ገደቡን እስከ ማንሳት ድረስ እንደሚዘልቅ ጠቁመዋል፡፡

የብድር ገደቡ ባንኮች የጥሬ ገንዘብ እጥረት እንዲያጋጥማቸው ካደረጉ ምክንያቶች መካከል አንዱ ነው የሚል ተደጋጋሚ ጥያቄዎች መቅረባቸው፣ ብሔራዊ ባንክ መመርያውን ለማሻሻል ገፊ ምክንያት እንደሆነበት ለማወቅ ተችሏል።

#ሪፓርተር

#ብድር #ፋይናንስ #ባንክ

የብሪክስ አገራት አዳዲስ የመገበያያ ገንዘብ የሚፈጥሩ እንደሆነ አሜሪካ 100 ፐርሰን የታሪፍ ጭማሪ እንደምታደርግ አስታወቀች ኢትዮጵያ ጨምሮ የብሪክስ አባል በመሆን እያንቀሳቀሱ የሚገኙ ሀገራት ከዶላር ለመራቅ የሚያደርጉት እንቅስቃሴ አሜሪካ ቆማ የማትመለከት መሆኑን የጠቀሱት አዲሱ የአሜሪካ ፕሬዝዳንት ዶናልድ ትራምፕ በዚህ ድርጊታቸዉ የሚቀጥሉ ከሆነ እስከመጨረሻው ከገበያዉ ላይ ያላቸዉን ድርሻ ሊያጡ እንደሚችሉ ፍንጭ ሰጥተዋል። በዚህ እንቅስቃሴ ላይ የሚታፉ እንደ ኢትዮጵያ ፣ ቻይና እና ሌሎች የብሪክስ ሀገራት አብዛኛው ኢኮኖሚያዊያቸዉ በአሜሪካ ላይ ጥገኛ በመሆኑ ሌሎች አማራጮችን ማግኘት እስካልቻሉ ድረስ ተጎጂ ሊሆኑ እንደሚችሉ በዘርፉ የተሰማሩ ባለሞያዎች እንደ ስጋት ሲያነሱ ቆይተዋል። የብሪክስ ሀገራት የራሳቸዉን መገበያያ እንደማይፈጥሩ ማረጋገጭ እንዲሰጣት የጠየቀችዉ አሜሪካ ይህ ካልሆነ ግን ከታሪፍ ጭማሪዉ በዘለለ በሀገሪቱ ላይ ምርታቸውን እንዳይሸጡ ይደረጋሉ ብላለች። ኢትዮጽያን ጨምሮ ግብፅን፣ ኢራንን ፣ ሳዑዲ አረቢያን እና የተባበሩት አረብ ኢምሬትስን እ.ኤ.አ. በ 2023 በተካሄደው የመሪዎች ስብሰባ ፣ ቡድኑ ከአስር ዓመታት በላይ ለመጀመሪያ ጊዜ አባልነት ተቀብሏል።

Reflecting on the Second Financial Stability Report by the National Bank of Ethiopia

By #Elias_Adem