🇺🇸👀 #macro Trump: Powell is unlikely to lower rates today

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⚠️🇺🇸 #macro #FOMC Federal rate: 4.5% (anticipated: 4.5% / previous: 4.5%)

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🇺🇸👀 #macro Waller and Bowman were the only ones in favor of reducing the rate, with the remaining nine members voting against it.

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🇺🇸👀 #macro #FOMC The Fed's statement highlights:
- Omission of the phrase suggesting reduced uncertainty;
- Economic growth has decelerated;
- High levels of uncertainty persist regarding the economic outlook;
- Inflation is slightly above the target level.

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🇺🇸👀 #macro Traders are now predicting fewer than two Fed rate cuts this year, and they've shifted their expectations away from an October rate cut.

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🇺🇸 #macro Trump: Once more, Powell is "Too Late"! He is unquestionably "Too Late" and frankly, too malicious, too foolish, and too political to serve as Fed Chairman. His actions are draining our country of TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS, not to mention overseeing one of the most incompetent or corrupt building renovations in construction history! Simply put, "Too Late" is a complete failure, and our nation is suffering because of it!

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🇺🇸👀 #macro US:
- PCE Price Index (June):
- Monthly: 0.3% (expected: 0.3%; previous: 0.1%)
- Yearly: 2.6% (expected: 2.5%; previous: 2.3%)
- Core PCE (Yearly): 2.8% (expected: 2.7%; previous: 2.7%)
- Initial Jobless Claims: 217,000 (previous: 217,000)

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🇺🇸👀 #macro USA (July):
- Nonfarm Payrolls: 73k (previous: 147k);
- Unemployment Rate: 4.2% (previous: 4.1%)

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🇺🇸👀 #macro Nick Timiraos, a Wall Street Journal reporter often referred to as "the Fed's mouthpiece," noted that the recent deceleration in job growth over the last three months could lead Fed officials to contemplate reducing interest rates in their upcoming September meeting: "This situation highlights the challenging tightrope they must walk between slowing economic growth and increasing inflationary pressures."

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🇺🇸👀 #macro United States (July):
- S&P Manufacturing PMI: 49.8 (previous: 49.5);
- ISM Manufacturing PMI: 48 (previous: 49)

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🇺🇸👀 #macro US Consumer Inflation Outlook (July): +3.1% (previous: +3%)

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⚡️🇺🇸 #macro US:
- Consumer Inflation (CPI; July):
- Monthly: 0.3% (expected: 0.2%; previous: 0.3%)
- Annual: 2.7% (expected: 2.8%; previous: 2.7%)
- Core CPI (Annual): 3.1% (expected: 3.0%; previous: 2.9%)

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🇺🇸👀 #macro Following the consumer inflation (CPI) figures meeting expectations, traders have increased the likelihood of a rate cut in September to 80%.

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🗽🔮 The odds of a September rate cut are 94.4%. #macro

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🇺🇸🍿 Powell, the Fed chair, will deliver a speech on U.S. monetary policy next week. #macro

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🇺🇸👀 #macro July Retail Sales rose 0.5%, down from 0.6% in the prior reading.

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🇺🇸📉 Bitcoin Archive: the U.S. dollar has fallen about 10% year-to-date. #macro

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🇺🇸👀 #macro Traders are now pricing in a 77% likelihood of a Fed rate cut in September.

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🇺🇸👀 #macro Traders are pricing in a 90% chance of a Fed rate cut in September.

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🗽🤔 #FOMC Ecoinometrics: The Federal Reserve remains hawkish

The July FOMC minutes show no change in tone; the last five meetings have all scored as hawkish in our Fed Communications Index.

That’s not what you’d expect if the Fed were preparing to accelerate rate cuts. #macro

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