Orientalist | Middle East
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Author's channel of an orientalist. I explain news of the Middle East in simple words, I give a full picture of events in the region, supporting everything with my thoughts and comments.

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Contact: @orientalist
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🔴🇮🇱🇱🇧According to the latest information, Israel will soon define the north of the country as the main combat zone

"Israel is preparing for the Third Lebanon War," - Israeli Channel 14, which supports the Likud party.

🔻It is unlikely that Hezbollah will leave today's attack unanswered. And this is what Israel needs so that a full-scale ground operation looks justified in the eyes of the "international community" of Western allies. Then they will begin. In the meantime, they are afraid, since the country's image is already at zero, and the allies have to blush for Israel's actions.

@orientaleast
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🔴🇮🇷🇮🇱The fact that the late Iranian President Raisi, who died in a helicopter crash several months ago, was seen carrying a pager has increased suspicions that the helicopter was shot down by Israel.

@orientaleast
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🔴🇮🇱🇺🇳🇱🇧"We will inform the Security Council of the closure of the diplomatic window to resolve the conflict with Lebanon", — the Israeli mission to the United Nations

🔻if true then the only solution is war. In fact, this is a declaration of war, Israel directly says: "We need war!".

@orientaleast
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🔴🇱🇧🇮🇱Hezbollah has been continuously shelling Israel with missiles and kamikaze drones for 8 hours now, while the IDF claims that most of the missiles are being shot down by the air defense system.

Today, pro-Iranian militias in Iraq 🇮🇷🇮🇶 also stood up for Hezbollah. They claimed responsibility for four missile strikes and drone strikes on Israel.

The video shows the landings in Haifa.

🔻It is interesting that Israel warned yesterday:

"If Hezbollah moves towards Haifa, Beirut will catch fire"


Hezbollah turned out to be not one of the timid, and this happened, which means the Israelis will prepare retaliatory strikes. And apparently it will only get worse.

@orientaleast
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🇮🇱🇱🇧Israel has always hit harder. This is embedded in the country's military policy

Hezbollah is no exception - it is subjected to much larger-scale strikes than it inflicts itself.

Multiple shelling of southern Lebanon, airstrikes on Beirut, the elimination of senior commanders, all this is evidence of this.

🔻The infographic shows the visual dynamics of the number of cross-border strikes by Israel and Hezbollah since October 7 last year.

@orientaleast
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🔴🇮🇱🇮🇷🇱🇧It looks like a full-scale ground operation is about to begin. Israel is determined to destroy Hezbollah and turn Lebanon into another Gaza Strip.

It is unlikely that Hezbollah will be able to single-handedly resist a country armed and supported by the United States and other Western countries.

🔻The only intrigue remains: will Iran stand up for its Lebanese brainchild or will it make do with "remote" support?

@orientaleast
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🔴🔴 "Hezbollah Shura Council elects Hashim Safi al-Din as Hezbollah Secretary General," — Saudi media outlet Al-Hadath

@orientaleast
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🔴🇮🇷🇺🇸🇮🇱The Iranian President said that "the leaders of the United States and European countries lied when they promised a ceasefire if Tehran did not respond to the murder of the head of the Hamas politburo"

The fact that they can lie is far from news. The question is more for you. What did they believe?

🔻The fact is that if Iran felt strong, it would not have paid attention to this proposal and would have acted at its own discretion. But Iran is behaving exactly as the current situation allows it to.

Meanwhile, Israel has struck Lebanon, the Gaza Strip, Syria and Yemen...

@orientaleast
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🇮🇷🇮🇱Yesterday Iran sent a clear signal that it is not to be trifled with and should not be underestimated.

The Iron Dome was overloaded and could not cope with such a large number of missiles, resulting in multiple hits.

However, once again there are no confirmed facts of the destruction of any military base or the elimination of any Israeli general, although there are civilian casualties and video recordings of hits on civilian infrastructure.

I know that several Iranian missiles hit Israeli air bases, but the IDF said that there was no damage there, although if there was, they would have happily pointed it out and used it as a reason for retaliatory strikes.

🔻It is difficult to find an explanation for this, but it seems to me that Iran once again tried not to hit Israel's strategic military facilities. Below is an example:

Today, the Israeli military leadership held an operational meeting on the current situation and a possible response to yesterday's Iranian air missile attack (photo 1).

🔻Interestingly, the meeting was held at the Mossad headquarters in Tel Aviv. This is the same base that Iran targeted yesterday with one missile, which hit a target just 400 meters away (photos 2 and 3).

Such hypersonic missiles are highly accurate even at such long distances.

I assume that Iran deliberately did not hit this base to avoid a larger escalation, and also to send a clear signal to Israel that next time it will hit its target.

Moreover, if Iran really intended to cause serious damage to the base, more than one missile would have been launched there.

I will never believe that the Iranians simply "missed".

📲Write in the comments if you know of any facts of destruction of any serious military facilities during yesterday's missile attack. I will change my mind.

@orientaleast
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🇮🇱🇵🇸 The Israeli government has achieved great success: it reduced the area of Gaza by 50% and decreased the Palestinian population by hundreds of thousands.

The project of seizure is practically complete.

@orientaleast | #СекторГаза