Decline or Resurgence? China Debates the Future of US Power
A series of global flashpoints has triggered a reassessment in Beijing of whether American power is eroding or entering a new phase of assertive resurgence
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/decline-or-resurgence-china-debates-the-future-of-us-power
A series of global flashpoints has triggered a reassessment in Beijing of whether American power is eroding or entering a new phase of assertive resurgence
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/decline-or-resurgence-china-debates-the-future-of-us-power
orfonline.org
Decline or Resurgence? China Debates the Future of US Power
A series of global flashpoints has triggered a reassessment in Beijing of whether American power is eroding or entering a new phase of assertive resurgence
Redesigning the India-EU Semiconductor Partnership for Industrial Impact
The India–EU Summit’s 2030 Agenda reflects strong strategic intent in semiconductor cooperation, but its structural gaps remain unaddressed
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/redesigning-the-india-eu-semiconductor-partnership-for-industrial-impact
The India–EU Summit’s 2030 Agenda reflects strong strategic intent in semiconductor cooperation, but its structural gaps remain unaddressed
https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/redesigning-the-india-eu-semiconductor-partnership-for-industrial-impact
orfonline.org
Redesigning the India-EU Semiconductor Partnership for Industrial Impact
The India–EU Summit’s 2030 Agenda reflects strong strategic intent in semiconductor cooperation, but its structural gaps remain unaddressed
The India-EU semiconductor alliance is not short on ambition. Where it has scope to improve is in building the institutional machinery to convert that ambition into investment. The Towards 2030 Agenda, similar to its predecessors, has bold objectives but has yet to establish the mechanisms required to implement them.
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/redesigning-the-india-eu-semiconductor-partnership-for-industrial-impact
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/redesigning-the-india-eu-semiconductor-partnership-for-industrial-impact
orfonline.org
Redesigning the India-EU Semiconductor Partnership for Industrial Impact
The India–EU Summit’s 2030 Agenda reflects strong strategic intent in semiconductor cooperation, but its structural gaps remain unaddressed
This brief highlights Chinese strategic debates reflecting uncertainty over whether the US is declining or adapting its dominance amid intensifying rivalry with China. Given this dilemma, India would be well advised to monitor this high-stakes rivalry closely. Want to know more?
Read here: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/decline-or-resurgence-china-debates-the-future-of-us-power
Read here: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/decline-or-resurgence-china-debates-the-future-of-us-power
orfonline.org
Decline or Resurgence? China Debates the Future of US Power
A series of global flashpoints has triggered a reassessment in Beijing of whether American power is eroding or entering a new phase of assertive resurgence
The Strait of Hormuz crisis and divergent Iran policies have intensified the US–Europe tensions. Europe must use its power to present a united front, which is the only option that will ensure its credibility on the world stage. The pause in conflict offers a window to diversify energy supplies, shape peace efforts, and act collectively to strengthen geopolitical credibility and resilience.
Read more: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/iran-ceasefire-offers-europe-a-chance-to-regroup
Read more: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/iran-ceasefire-offers-europe-a-chance-to-regroup
orfonline.org
Iran Ceasefire Offers Europe a Chance to Regroup
As a tenuous ceasefire holds, Europe faces a critical test: strengthen energy security, shape the peace, and act collectively to maintain global credibility
Renewed criticism of NATO by Donald Trump signals potential erosion of US commitment. The central question is not simply whether the US will remain within the alliance, but what kind of ally it intends to be?
Read the brief to understant the global repercussions from the uncertain NATO: https://www.orfonline.org/research/trump-vs-nato-a-rift-with-global-repercussions
Read the brief to understant the global repercussions from the uncertain NATO: https://www.orfonline.org/research/trump-vs-nato-a-rift-with-global-repercussions
orfonline.org
Trump vs. NATO: A Rift with Global Repercussions
Trump’s renewed threat to withdraw from NATO amid the Iran crisis raises doubts over US commitment, weakening alliance credibility, European security, and global order.
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Isolation from the West has forced Russia to reach out to the Global South, its trade with India on a remarkable rise driven by increased imports primarily of crude oil. This brief examines the current status of and potential for Russian investment in India, identifying areas and mechanisms of economic cooperation alongside existing challenges to promoting bilateral ties.
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/research/mapping-russian-investment-in-india
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/research/mapping-russian-investment-in-india
orfonline.org
Mapping Russian Investment in India
Russia India relations deepen through rising trade, rupee–ruble settlements, and growing investments across energy, infrastructure, and finance.
Following the escalation of Operation Epic Fury and the seismic shifts in Tehran’s leadership, Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Khatibzadeh argues that Iran has been pushed into a corner where diplomatic maneuvering has been replaced by the necessity of survival.
Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgvC6IZyz6w
Watch: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mgvC6IZyz6w
YouTube
Iran Has No Option, It Has to Fight the War
In this exclusive session at the Observer Research Foundation (ORF), Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister and Head of the Institute for Political and International Studies (IPIS), Saeed Khatibzadeh, delivers a stark assessment of the ongoing conflict.
Following…
Following…
A breakdown of talks would likely trigger a resumption of hostilities, pushing up prices and amplifying global inflationary pressures. This brief explores whether incremental diplomacy can arrest a cycle of escalation that has proven remarkably resilient thus far.
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-structural-challenge-to-us-iran-ceasefire
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-structural-challenge-to-us-iran-ceasefire
orfonline.org
The Structural Challenge to US-Iran ceasefire
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire pauses escalation as tensions over Hormuz, sanctions, and nuclear diplomacy keep risks of renewed conflict and oil volatility high.
For Nepal, developing a relationship with China has both economic and strategic dimensions. The deepening of economic ties is also seen as feeding into Kathmandu’s strategic positioning—seeking to reduce reliance on New Delhi and, in turn, hedge its bets between its two neighbours.
Read to learn Nepal's balancing game: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/nepal-s-political-reset-and-the-limits-of-change-in-nepal-china-ties
Read to learn Nepal's balancing game: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/nepal-s-political-reset-and-the-limits-of-change-in-nepal-china-ties
orfonline.org
Nepal’s Political Reset and the Limits of Change in Nepal–China Ties
Nepal’s new government may recalibrate engagement with China, but structural constraints suggest cautious continuity rather than a fundamental shift in bilateral ties
This report highlights the deep complementarities and converging interests between India and Thailand, and identifies 5 top priorities for both sides—semiconductors; artificial intelligence; automotives; Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs); and tourism.
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-and-thailand-the-compelling-case-for-a-deeper-compact
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-and-thailand-the-compelling-case-for-a-deeper-compact
orfonline.org
India and Thailand: The Compelling Case for a Deeper Compact
Explore how India Thailand relations are evolving into a strategic partnership across sectors like AI, semiconductors, MSMEs, and tourism.
Can India meditate? As global power shifts beyond the Cold War binary, can India balance ties with Russia and the US to shape a viable triangular framework in a fluid geopolitical order?
Watch Alexander A. Dynkin, Matthew Foldi, Harsh V Pant and Cary Johnston discuss: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FoMBfbvRZs
Watch Alexander A. Dynkin, Matthew Foldi, Harsh V Pant and Cary Johnston discuss: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-FoMBfbvRZs
YouTube
Bridging the Chasm: Can India Mediate the Russia–US Rivalry?
The Russia–US rivalry defined much of the postwar geopolitical architecture. Since the Cold War, India’s strategic orientation has evolved to sustain significant proximity with both Moscow and Washington, even as tensions between them persist. As that earlier…
For now, the US-Iran Ceasefire is not an endgame - it is merely the next move in a much longer strategic contest.
Read this brief to understand how this conflict serves as a reminder of the limits of coercion in addressing deeply embedded geopolitical rivalries: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-us-iran-ceasefire-a-calibrated-pause
Read this brief to understand how this conflict serves as a reminder of the limits of coercion in addressing deeply embedded geopolitical rivalries: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-us-iran-ceasefire-a-calibrated-pause
orfonline.org
The US-Iran Ceasefire: A Calibrated Pause?
A fragile US-Iran ceasefire reopens the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting Trump’s brinkmanship strategy, unresolved nuclear tensions, and risks to global energy stability.
Strengthening relations with Malaysia, a key ASEAN member, secures India’s interests and can generate positive effects for India’s engagement with other ASEAN nations, further enhancing its position in the Indo-Pacific. Malaysia’s expanded role in India’s Act East policy supports these objectives.
Read more here: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/malaysia-s-growing-significance-in-india-s-act-east-policy
Read more here: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/malaysia-s-growing-significance-in-india-s-act-east-policy
orfonline.org
Malaysia’s Growing Significance in India’s Act East Policy
OBSERVER RESEARCH FOUNDATION
The closure of the Strait of Hormuz, accompanied by multiple Iranian attacks on QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan Industrial City, has posed a significant risk to global helium supply.
Read to know how the Iran war has disrupted global Helium supply chain and how it will impact the memory chip manufacturing: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/has-the-iran-war-triggered-another-semiconductor-crisis
Read to know how the Iran war has disrupted global Helium supply chain and how it will impact the memory chip manufacturing: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/has-the-iran-war-triggered-another-semiconductor-crisis
orfonline.org
Has the Iran War Triggered Another Semiconductor Crisis?
The looming threat of a helium shortage amid the Iran war, coupled with a global memory chip crisis, underscores the urgent need to diversify semiconductor supply chains
Deep Sea Mining could reshape metal markets and geopolitics. India's influence over DSM will not be determined by whether it eventually extracts from the seabed, but by how actively it helps write the rules that govern it.
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/deep-sea-mining-and-ocean-commons-economics-equity-and-the-governance
Read: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/deep-sea-mining-and-ocean-commons-economics-equity-and-the-governance
orfonline.org
Deep Sea Mining and Ocean Commons: Economics, Equity, and the Governance
DSM could reshape metal markets and geopolitics, but high costs, regulatory uncertainty, and ESG risks limit investment and delay its viability
We are hosting the latest iteration of the Neighbourhood Scope series on 'Bangladesh under BNP: Opportunities and Challenges.'
The recent developments in West Asia have continued to pose several challenges to #Bangladesh’s economy. The panel featuring Nayanima Basu, Rashed Uz Zaman, Sohini Bose, Tariq Karim & Sushant Sareen will discuss the way forward for the newly elected government of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (#BNP) led by Tarique Rahman.
📅 16 April | ⏰ 3:30 PM | 📍 ORF Delhi
Register now👉https://or-f.org/38305
The recent developments in West Asia have continued to pose several challenges to #Bangladesh’s economy. The panel featuring Nayanima Basu, Rashed Uz Zaman, Sohini Bose, Tariq Karim & Sushant Sareen will discuss the way forward for the newly elected government of the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (#BNP) led by Tarique Rahman.
📅 16 April | ⏰ 3:30 PM | 📍 ORF Delhi
Register now👉https://or-f.org/38305
It is important to ensure that students’ digital engagement remains purposeful, structured, and aligned with learning objectives. This requires focusing on how technology is used, supported by governance frameworks that protect and enhance student learning.
Read the analysis: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/students-screens-and-human-capital-formation-in-india
Read the analysis: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/students-screens-and-human-capital-formation-in-india
orfonline.org
Students, Screens, and Human Capital Formation in India
India’s demographic dividend will depend not just on digital access, but on governing how students use screens, as unmanaged digital engagement is emerging as a structural constraint on learning and human capital formation
France supports India's multi-alignment with flexible defence deals, from helicopters to submarines, fortifying Indo-Pacific security ties. The real test, however, lies in the implementation of the ambitious strategic partnership agenda that has been outlined during President Emmanuel Macron’s visit to India in February:
https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-india-france-defence-connect
https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-india-france-defence-connect
orfonline.org
The India-France Defence Connect
Macron’s 2026 India visit deepens defence ties, advancing Rafale co-production, strategic autonomy, and Indo-Pacific cooperation amid shifting global geopolitics.The India-France Defence Connect