This brief explores how the US–Israel–Iran war is shaping People’s Liberation Army doctrine: the saturaturaion warfare, drone tactics and trade chokepoint crisis.

Know more: https://www.orfonline.org/research/chinese-lessons-from-the-war-in-the-middle-east

The US is driven by an excessive use of force doctrine, while for Iran, it is a question of ideology, resistance, regime survival and pride rolled into one. Both Iran and the US headed to the talks with maximalist demands, making an off-ramp look impossible.

Read this brief to explore the structural failure of Iran-US peace: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-structural-failure-of-the-iran-us-islamabad-talks

India must pursue AI sovereignty—targeting key layers like semiconductors, compute, and models—balancing autonomy with global collaboration. Done right, this approach can translate into both economic and geopolitical leverage, positioning India as a credible ‘third way’ in AI.

Read more: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/a-strategic-approach-towards-ai-sovereignty

ORF NEWSLETTER 🗞️✨

Short reads:

1. Neighbourhood and China
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/decline-or-resurgence-china-debates-the-future-of-us-power
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/hormuz-disruptions-a-stress-test-of-thailand-s-energy-resilience
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/nepal-s-political-reset-and-the-limits-of-change-in-nepal-china-ties

2. Europe and Eurasia
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-drivers-of-georgia-s-pragmatism-towards-russia
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-eu-ghana-sdp-a-new-pillar-of-stability-in-west-africa
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/iran-ceasefire-offers-europe-a-chance-to-regroup
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/drones-and-deadlock-the-elusiveness-of-breakthrough-in-the-russia-ukraine-war

3. Americas
*https://www.orfonline.org/research/trump-vs-nato-a-rift-with-global-repercussions
*https://www.orfonline.org/research/refining-the-partnership-elbridge-colby-s-pragmatism-and-the-us-india-dynamic

4. Indo-Pacific
*https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/japan-s-security-posture-and-the-limits-of-public-consent

Long read:
*https://www.orfonline.org/research/understanding-russia-s-asia-pacific-strategy
*https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-policy-edge-of-japan-and-south-korea-in-securing-critical-minerals

Video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ekxEaTrXats

Series:
https://www.orfonline.org/series/us-israel-strikes-on-iran-what-next-for-the-middle-east

This paper suggests introducing a new term, ‘hybrid militarised legalism’, to describe how, using constitutional and legal mechanisms, judicial independence is being gradually eviscerated in Pakistan, suggesting that the military in Pakistan has ceased being an informal veto player to become an active constitutional engineer.

Learn more on hybrid militarised legalism in Pakistan: https://www.orfonline.org/research/-hybrid-militarised-legalism-and-judicial-hollowing-out-in-pakistan

Mauritius as an emerging island leader.
As Mauritius balances global integration with extreme climate exposure, how is it navigating the gap between climate ambition and adaptation finance in a shifting multilateral order?

Watch Ritish Ramful & Sunjoy Joshi speak on resilience & financing gaps: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EAUW6B2-rw

India’s entry into Pax Silica is a bet on securing its place in trusted AI supply chains while managing the trade-offs between access and dependence.

Read to know whether this membership translates into industrial depth and genuine policy influence depending on the quality and consistency of India’s domestic follow-through: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-in-pax-silica-a-critical-assessment

Washington is contesting Tehran's attempt to redefine the rules of access and control in one of the most vital maritime corridors of the global economy. Countries like India and China, which have relied on discounted Iranian crude in recent months, now find themselves caught between geopolitical alignment and economic necessity. https://www.orfonline.org/research/trump-s-naval-blockade-of-hormuz-kinetic-economic-coercion

As wars, debt, and strategic rivalry reshape the global order, sustainability is no longer only a developmental concern but a question of finance, trade, and geopolitical stability. Can the international system still protect long-term public goods while responding to immediate strategic pressures?

Read to know more: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/sustainability-in-an-age-of-strategic-disorder

SHE-Marts present a significant opportunity not only to strengthen women’s enterprises but also to catalyse the development of local markets and rural economies. If implemented well, they can drive economic transformation and inclusive growth.

Read the analysis on how SHE-Marts aim to address the “missing market” constraining SHG enterprises: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/she-marts-addressing-india-s-missing-market-for-women-entrepreneurs

This article examines how the widening gap between chip design and fabrication costs reshaped the industry, positioning Taiwan as the dominant hub of advanced semiconductor manufacturing.

Learn more: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-global-microchip-conflict-the-semiconductor-fault-line-through-taiwan

Children’s AI use needs balanced policies; focusing on literacy, safe design, and shared responsibility, rather than bans alone.

Read to know how a meaningful framework must involve coordinated action across multiple stakeholders: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/beyond-bans-preparing-children-for-the-age-of-ai

The AI Frontline
As threats evolve across borders and domains, how is the #IndianArmy reshaping doctrine, #technology use and force structure for multi-domain #warfare and future deterrence?

Watch General Upendra Dwivedi & Harsh V Pant: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e52FOLVELbU

AI’s Hunger: The Nuclear Fix
As AI and data centres drive massive electricity demand, can nuclear energy deliver reliable, carbon free power without compromising affordability and grid stability?

Watch Bjorn Lomborg & David Victor on energy security: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9iws01stAVk

Going forward, the key challenges confronting the Indian Navy in this domain is likely going to emanate from how efficiently New Delhi balances spending its resources on upgrading its submarines programme and Artificial Intelligence and Autonomous Systems in design and production of these vessels.

Read more: https://www.orfonline.org/research/bolstering-deterrence-through-submarine-dominance

India’s energy transition is increasingly being celebrated as a story of scale. Installed renewable capacity has crossed 260 GW, and non-fossil sources now account for over half of total installed power capacity. However, gap between capacity and system reliability is not a technical aberration; it is a structural outcome of how India’s power sector is governed.

Read the complete brief here: https://www.orfonline.org/research/powering-viksit-bharat-2047-baseline-assessment-of-state-level-readiness-for-energy-transition

War’s economic costs from unlawful force often fall on host States and investors, not the responsible State. Ultimately, this is not only about clarifying responsibility; it is also about maintaining the credibility of international law.

Read the analysis: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/war-has-a-price-who-pays-and-what-it-means-for-investment

The UK’s search for a post-Brexit partnership with the EU is caught between economic necessity and political constraint, limiting how far a “reset” can deliver substantive integration.

Read the brief to understand the limits of the UK-EU partnership: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/between-necessity-and-constraint-the-limits-of-a-uk-eu-reset