XC Zong Most 180s v Mansell
Stake: 3pts
Odds: 3.25
Bookmaker: BetVictor
My stats suggest the bookies have got this horribly wrong. Across their last 30 matches, Mansell has averaged 0.179 180s per leg, Zong 0.211.
Mansell has lost this market in his last 6 matches on the spin. He's hit the Most 180s in just 1 of his last 11. He's always been a slow thrower with scoring the weakness in his game.
Stake: 3pts
Odds: 3.25
Bookmaker: BetVictor
My stats suggest the bookies have got this horribly wrong. Across their last 30 matches, Mansell has averaged 0.179 180s per leg, Zong 0.211.
Mansell has lost this market in his last 6 matches on the spin. He's hit the Most 180s in just 1 of his last 11. He's always been a slow thrower with scoring the weakness in his game.
Lukeman Most 180s v Heta
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 4.5
Bookmaker: BetVictor
Value play. Heta should not be 1.36 imo. He's played Lukeman 5 times before and hit the most 180s in just 2 of those matches. Heta isn't that big a scorer and his last 30 matches is averaging 0.263 per leg.
That is comfortably better than Lukeman at 0.205 who disappointing on the lipstick in his first round match. But in his last match before the World's he won this market against Luke Humphries.
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 4.5
Bookmaker: BetVictor
Value play. Heta should not be 1.36 imo. He's played Lukeman 5 times before and hit the most 180s in just 2 of those matches. Heta isn't that big a scorer and his last 30 matches is averaging 0.263 per leg.
That is comfortably better than Lukeman at 0.205 who disappointing on the lipstick in his first round match. But in his last match before the World's he won this market against Luke Humphries.
Dolan v Mansell Over 5.5 180s
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 2.2
Bookmaker: bet365
Obvious play is unders but my model suggests 5.7348 180s is the likely outcome so Overs should be a fraction odds on here.
They've met twice in recent weeks, totalling 19 legs and hitting a combined 9 180s. Perhaps the fact they are both slow helps their tempo 🙄
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 2.2
Bookmaker: bet365
Obvious play is unders but my model suggests 5.7348 180s is the likely outcome so Overs should be a fraction odds on here.
They've met twice in recent weeks, totalling 19 legs and hitting a combined 9 180s. Perhaps the fact they are both slow helps their tempo 🙄
De Sousa Most 180s v De Graaf
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 1.62
Bookmaker: SpreadEx
Should be around 1.44 according to my model so take anything 1.6 and bigger which is available at 8 bookies on the oddschecker grid alone.
De Sousa not the power scorer he once was but averaging 0.2996 180s per leg is way ahead of De Graaf at 0.177.
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 1.62
Bookmaker: SpreadEx
Should be around 1.44 according to my model so take anything 1.6 and bigger which is available at 8 bookies on the oddschecker grid alone.
De Sousa not the power scorer he once was but averaging 0.2996 180s per leg is way ahead of De Graaf at 0.177.
Ratajski Most 180s v Hughes
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 2.7
Model Price: 2.3
Bookmaker: Betfair (will be settled at 2.63)
Ratajski is scoring well, hitting 2 or more 180s in 9 of his last 12 matches. Hughes hit just 1 maximum in 18 legs in the 1st Round.
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 2.7
Model Price: 2.3
Bookmaker: Betfair (will be settled at 2.63)
Ratajski is scoring well, hitting 2 or more 180s in 9 of his last 12 matches. Hughes hit just 1 maximum in 18 legs in the 1st Round.
Hempel Over 3.5 180s v Van Den Bergh
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 2.1
Model Price: 1.72
Bookmaker: bet365
Hempel averaged 5 in his 1st Round win. He won't be overawed by his opponent having beaten him here in the 2022 World Championship, also hitting 5 180s in 4 sets on that occasion. My model tells me we can expect 3.97 180s from Hempel here which suggests we have value in these odds.
Stake: 1pt
Odds: 2.1
Model Price: 1.72
Bookmaker: bet365
Hempel averaged 5 in his 1st Round win. He won't be overawed by his opponent having beaten him here in the 2022 World Championship, also hitting 5 180s in 4 sets on that occasion. My model tells me we can expect 3.97 180s from Hempel here which suggests we have value in these odds.
Last 2 tips for tonight!
🎯 Van Barneveld v Szaganski Over 5.5 180s
▪️Stake: 2pts
▪️Odds: 1.91
▪️Model Price: 1.53
▪️Bookmaker: William Hill
Should be a close match as Szaganski won 16/19 in the PC events beating the likes of Anderson and Van Den Bergh. My model suggests there will be 6.95 180s so this line is wrong. They met twice recently and there were 11 180s in just 19 legs of darts.
🎯 Dobey Over 4.5 180s v O'Connor
▪️Stake: 1pt
▪️Odds: 1.91
▪️Model Price: 1.67
▪️Bookmaker: SpreadEx
The model suggest Dobey will hit 5.081 180s here. So this price looks wrong. In recent years Dobey has saved his best scoring for Ally Pally. 180 totals of 4,8,8,5 and 11 in his last 5 World Championship matches.
🎯 Van Barneveld v Szaganski Over 5.5 180s
▪️Stake: 2pts
▪️Odds: 1.91
▪️Model Price: 1.53
▪️Bookmaker: William Hill
Should be a close match as Szaganski won 16/19 in the PC events beating the likes of Anderson and Van Den Bergh. My model suggests there will be 6.95 180s so this line is wrong. They met twice recently and there were 11 180s in just 19 legs of darts.
🎯 Dobey Over 4.5 180s v O'Connor
▪️Stake: 1pt
▪️Odds: 1.91
▪️Model Price: 1.67
▪️Bookmaker: SpreadEx
The model suggest Dobey will hit 5.081 180s here. So this price looks wrong. In recent years Dobey has saved his best scoring for Ally Pally. 180 totals of 4,8,8,5 and 11 in his last 5 World Championship matches.
Saturday Tips
To make things easier I've done them all together with shorter previews. Forgot how time consuming this is as I build my stats database again.
To make things easier I've done them all together with shorter previews. Forgot how time consuming this is as I build my stats database again.
Sorry run out of time so no previews with these! Might have time to add some reasoning tomorrow!
Over 13pts profit with 10 winners. Even more if you only followed on here as forgot to include Huybrechts in the list above. I’ll still include that loss in the results though as I shared it on Twitter!
Back after Xmas. Have a good one!
Back after Xmas. Have a good one!
Round 3 Tips
Spent the last 3 hours putting the model through it's paces and these are the bets I think are value. Apologies it's so late but obviously the time of year and day mean my availability is limited. Good Luck everyone.
1pt - Scott Williams Over 6.5 180s - 2.0 @ SpreadEx
1pt - Chisnall Over 8.5 180s - 2.15 @ Bet Goodwin
2pts - Rob Cross Over 5.5 180s - 2.1 @ SpreadEx
1pt - Campbell v Littler Under 11.5 180s - 1.83 @ Bet Goodwin
1pt - MVG v Veenstra Under 10.5 180s - 1.81 @ Unibet
2pts - Smith v Razma Under 9.5 180s - 1.91 @ SpreadEx
2pts - Hempel Over 4.5 180s - 2.0 @ BetVictor
2pts - Hempel v Bunting Over 11.5 180s - 1.85 @ Live Score Bet
2pts - Searle Most 180s v Cullen - 3.0 @ BetVictor
1pt - Searle v Cullen Over 13.5 180s - 1.73 @ bet365
1pt - Ross Smith Most 180s v Dobey - 1.85 @ Unibet
3pts - Ross Smith Over 8.5 180s - 1.91 @ SkyBet
1pt - Price Over 7.5 180s - 2.37 @ bet365
1pt - Price v Dolan Over 10.5 180s - 2.1 @ bet365
2pts - Ricky Evans Over 5.5 180s - 1.8 @ SkyBet
1pt - Evans v Gurney Over 12.5 180s - 1.91 @ bet365
1pt - Clayton v Ratajaski Under 9.5 180s - 1.9 @ bet365
1pt - Van Barneveld Most 180s v Williams - 2.1 @ bet365
1pt - Barneveld Over 5.5 180s - 1.85 @ LiveScoreBet
1pt - Anderson Over 6.5 180s - 1.9 @ bet365
Spent the last 3 hours putting the model through it's paces and these are the bets I think are value. Apologies it's so late but obviously the time of year and day mean my availability is limited. Good Luck everyone.
1pt - Scott Williams Over 6.5 180s - 2.0 @ SpreadEx
1pt - Chisnall Over 8.5 180s - 2.15 @ Bet Goodwin
2pts - Rob Cross Over 5.5 180s - 2.1 @ SpreadEx
1pt - Campbell v Littler Under 11.5 180s - 1.83 @ Bet Goodwin
1pt - MVG v Veenstra Under 10.5 180s - 1.81 @ Unibet
2pts - Smith v Razma Under 9.5 180s - 1.91 @ SpreadEx
2pts - Hempel Over 4.5 180s - 2.0 @ BetVictor
2pts - Hempel v Bunting Over 11.5 180s - 1.85 @ Live Score Bet
2pts - Searle Most 180s v Cullen - 3.0 @ BetVictor
1pt - Searle v Cullen Over 13.5 180s - 1.73 @ bet365
1pt - Ross Smith Most 180s v Dobey - 1.85 @ Unibet
3pts - Ross Smith Over 8.5 180s - 1.91 @ SkyBet
1pt - Price Over 7.5 180s - 2.37 @ bet365
1pt - Price v Dolan Over 10.5 180s - 2.1 @ bet365
2pts - Ricky Evans Over 5.5 180s - 1.8 @ SkyBet
1pt - Evans v Gurney Over 12.5 180s - 1.91 @ bet365
1pt - Clayton v Ratajaski Under 9.5 180s - 1.9 @ bet365
1pt - Van Barneveld Most 180s v Williams - 2.1 @ bet365
1pt - Barneveld Over 5.5 180s - 1.85 @ LiveScoreBet
1pt - Anderson Over 6.5 180s - 1.9 @ bet365
2 extra picks for the 2 Round 4 matches tonight. Will do the rest tomorrow morning.
Dobey v Smith - Under 15.5 180s - 1pt - 2.25 @ bet365
Smith Under 7.5 180s - 1pt - 2.0 @ bet365
Model suggests these are very good value. Hard to trust these bets given what we saw from Dobey but Smith was very poor in the last round and when they last met there were only 8 180s in 18 legs.
Dobey v Smith - Under 15.5 180s - 1pt - 2.25 @ bet365
Smith Under 7.5 180s - 1pt - 2.0 @ bet365
Model suggests these are very good value. Hard to trust these bets given what we saw from Dobey but Smith was very poor in the last round and when they last met there were only 8 180s in 18 legs.
Reload on Smith v Dobey as odds have drifted!
1pt - Total 180s - Under 16.5 - 2.0 @ bet365
I get it, from what we've seen Overs is the obvious play but doesn't mean it's value. My model suggests 14.87 is the expected number of 180s in this match, which suggests this is really good value and worth an additional 1pt stake.
1pt - Total 180s - Under 16.5 - 2.0 @ bet365
I get it, from what we've seen Overs is the obvious play but doesn't mean it's value. My model suggests 14.87 is the expected number of 180s in this match, which suggests this is really good value and worth an additional 1pt stake.
4/4 last night to get back on track!!
Saturdays tips
Williams v Heta U14.5 180s - 1pt - 1.83 @ bet365
Gurney v Chisnall O15.5 180s - 1pt - 2.18 @ Unibet
Cross v Clayton U11.5 180s - 1pt - 1.91 @ Bet Goodwin
Barneveld Over 5.5 180s - 1pt - 1.91 @ bet365
That's all. Good Luck and Happy New Year!
Saturdays tips
Williams v Heta U14.5 180s - 1pt - 1.83 @ bet365
Gurney v Chisnall O15.5 180s - 1pt - 2.18 @ Unibet
Cross v Clayton U11.5 180s - 1pt - 1.91 @ Bet Goodwin
Barneveld Over 5.5 180s - 1pt - 1.91 @ bet365
That's all. Good Luck and Happy New Year!
Super boost from bet365 on Anderson Over 7.5 180s. Worth 2pts. Won't be included in results but wanted to let you know as it's very good value. Should probably be 1.72!
World Championship STATS to date
Tips: 51
Profit: +25.1pts
ROI: 37.74%
Win Rate: 58.82%
Thank you for following. QF tips going up now!
Tips: 51
Profit: +25.1pts
ROI: 37.74%
Win Rate: 58.82%
Thank you for following. QF tips going up now!
Quarter Final Tips
Cross Most 180s v Dobey - 1pt - 4.33 @ BetVictor (Also available at PP, Betfair, Min Price 3.75)
Dobey Under 10.5 180s - 1pt - 2.0 @ bet365
Littler -6.5 180s v Dolan - 1pt - 2.25 @ bet365
MVG Most 180s v Williams - 2pts - 1.84 @ Unibet (1.8 at SkyBet/Star Sports/Bet Goodwin/Betfred)
MVG v Williams Under 17.5 180s - 2pts - 1.75 @ Bet Goodwin (Also at 888 & Quinbet, 1.73 at SkyBet, Star Sports)
Good Luck
Cross Most 180s v Dobey - 1pt - 4.33 @ BetVictor (Also available at PP, Betfair, Min Price 3.75)
Dobey Under 10.5 180s - 1pt - 2.0 @ bet365
Littler -6.5 180s v Dolan - 1pt - 2.25 @ bet365
MVG Most 180s v Williams - 2pts - 1.84 @ Unibet (1.8 at SkyBet/Star Sports/Bet Goodwin/Betfred)
MVG v Williams Under 17.5 180s - 2pts - 1.75 @ Bet Goodwin (Also at 888 & Quinbet, 1.73 at SkyBet, Star Sports)
Good Luck
Hugely disappointing day. All 5 tips losing. Sorry. The further the tournament has gone on the more unreliable my model has become. This is because it's much harder to predict the number of legs in longer format matches and those players still left are there because they are exceeding their recent numbers.
For that reason I'm going to call it a day. It was good to be back and pleased to win some money myself. £180 in fact, so seemed the right time to stop 😂
World Championship STATS
Tips: 56
Profit: +18.1pts
ROI: 24.63%
Win Rate: 53.57%
I may return for the big events but not on a regular basis as I have no availability at weekends and that's when most of the European Tour matches happen. Thanks for following. Check out Anon Darts Bets on Twitter who has a similar approach to me and is having a great event. If you do sign up tell him Simon from Betting Kingdom sent you.
For that reason I'm going to call it a day. It was good to be back and pleased to win some money myself. £180 in fact, so seemed the right time to stop 😂
World Championship STATS
Tips: 56
Profit: +18.1pts
ROI: 24.63%
Win Rate: 53.57%
I may return for the big events but not on a regular basis as I have no availability at weekends and that's when most of the European Tour matches happen. Thanks for following. Check out Anon Darts Bets on Twitter who has a similar approach to me and is having a great event. If you do sign up tell him Simon from Betting Kingdom sent you.