good read

https://x.com/plur_daddy/status/1985717096894857241?s=46&t=gSKekr4wUhGpVO_t_G85WQ

rn looking to build good positions on growth/tech stocks…

Based on latest earnings reports and ct consensus the best asymmetric trade seems to be $glxy

also, good spot to start accumulating $mstr or $mstx position expecting speculation closer to December on S&P inclusion

Crypto: just survive if you are into alts.

- bullish on $neet as pump will deploy capital on their liquidity project initiative soon and airdrop is closer than yesterday

more into this soon…

but basically they are using the 2020 playbook. Trump throwing 2k stimmy checks + FED balance sheet expansion could lead us to the next leg of this bull run

JUST IN: 🇺🇸 President Trump says Americans will get at least a $2000 dividend payment, excluding high-income earners.

@WatcherGuru

tough moments for bulls, feels like the end out there:

the key right now is survival. btc has already retraced close to 30% from the last pico top, which means that if this is still a bull market, we should be nearing a bottom. fear & greed even dropped into single digits, but honestly it doesn’t feel real… there are still plenty of bulls on the timeline waiting for a relief bounce.

I also don’t think the AI bubble is bursting anytime soon (the only real invalidation would be if $nvda misses earnings on Wednesday). the 4-year cyclers keep calling for a bear market, but I still see this as a major correction rather than a full cycle top.

in equities, I’m watching datacenter and AI names as great dip opportunities. I’ve been accumulating $glxy, $tsla, $rklb, and $xpev (in that order of size).

in crypto, I’m holding $hype, $aster, $pump, $eth, and some $neet. not adding anything until majors break down properly (btc < 89k).

there are still plenty of bullish catalysts ahead, no matter what the crowd thinks. bear or not, the sentiment on the timeline will always try to break you. charts always look horrible until they don’t. that’s why you stick to your conviction bags, train your body, keep your mind sharp, and touch grass.

market looking better, conviction rewarded once again.

two weeks ago everything was “over,” we were “headed into a recession,” ai was “done” and the bubble was “popping.” classic ct hysteria. this place is the purest retail sentiment feed, the ultimate chasing pool of money.

based on that, here’s an overview of my current positioning, market thoughts, and a couple of interesting things i’ve been tracking:

crypto:
if you survived the dip, didn’t capitulate, and added on that btc breakdown below 89k, you’re sitting nicely. congrats. most of my bags are long-term conviction bags, so i’m not looking to offload anything unless:

$hype → would like to see an ath break to trim a bit, not selling on weak bounces.

$pump → not selling here. waiting for eco initiatives like glass foundation + renewed airdrop speculation. that’s where the upside gets interesting.

$aster → smaller bag. if $hype hits ath, i expect cz to crime this one to make it attractive for rotation. that’s the exit window.

$eth → ultrasound money. no explanation needed.

equities:
i still expect es ≥ 7000 by eoy. maybe delusional, but qt just ended yesterday, rate cuts are coming, and the biggest catalyst is trump choosing the next powell, plus stimmy checks if they come.

wouldn’t get too cute with stock picking outside of a few conviction names: $tsla, $rklb, $glxy.

$glxy is the most balanced bet across crypto, ai, and datacenters. we just need novo to execute and eventually unload his massive bag, but structurally, they have everything needed to outperform.

reward yourself if you survived the dip, dca’d, and took profits along the way. pay yourself.

extra researc, two interesting projects (zero shills, no bags to pump lol):

1. nockchain
they brand themselves as “a better bitcoin,” which sounds instantly bearish, but the underlying zk tech is actually interesting. good thesis here if you want to deep dive:
https://x.com/avizurlo/status/1970874042233283050

for dummies: liquidity is low, not on any major chains, no bridges yet. december they’re supposedly dropping a base bridge. if you want to front-run upside:
- create an account on Safetrade (CEX)
- buy $NOCK there
- withdraw to Iris Wallet.

2. avici
clean off-ramp app, you get a visa card and spend your crypto. team has been delivering. good thread here if you want more:
https://x.com/platacrypto/status/1996244262610997318?s=20

beyond avici, the whole metadao structure is interesting. bullish on their token too. similar to $pump but with a better icm implementation and an actual business model for projects launched on top.

neet

how to play this shitty market:

1. buy deep flushes when everyone is convinced it’s over. that’s usually where the best risk/reward shows up. right now, a lot of assets are trading at levels that looked impossible just 3 months ago

2. sell the relief and exit pumps. markets usually don’t die in a straight line. they bounce, trap, and give you chances to reduce, rotate, or reposition. if it nukes straight down instead, even better. rip the bandaid off

3. keep cash. cash gives you agility, conviction, and the ability to act when everyone else is frozen. this is a headline-driven market, so when the war premium fades, you want to already have exposure

4. use q4 to accumulate across the board: quality assets, wealth compounders, crypto majors, and selected high-risk names. spx, tech, btc, hype, pump for strength. neet, pepe for max risk

pure gut feeling but this looks like a relief rally before downtrend continuation sooner rather than later

personally i’m derisking here. mostly cash, a few shorts as hedge, and waiting for better prices 3-4 months from now instead of getting chopped in the middle

shorts

$mrvl @ 129.61

$smh @ 438.66

cooked, trimmed position

https://x.com/zerohedge/status/2047304453015908406?s=46

still have faith in

bought $pepe here at 1.6b