If you are cut out of dollars, euros and formal banking, your options collapse fast and gold, for all its historical romance, simply doesn’t function at scale in a live shipping artery like the Strait of Hormuz; you are not settling millions of barrels by shuttling bullion across contested waters. Bitcoin, by contrast, moves instantly, permissionlessly and in size. This isn’t ideology, it’s plumbing. Every sanction, capital control or geopolitical fracture forces actors onto alternative rails, and once that behaviour exists it does not disappear. What begins as workaround liquidity becomes parallel liquidity, and markets consistently underestimate how quickly “last resort” infrastructure becomes “just another way to settle” especially when trust in the incumbent system is being actively weaponised.
LOTFW:
🇬🇧 I SAID IT MONTHS AGO, the notion of the UK as an AI CENTRE beyond being A creative lab, was just fanciful political BS. It really IS a peculiar national achievement to have invented the modern industrial world and then volunteer as the case study in how to dismantle it. Ed Miliband speaks of leadership on net zero, but what Britain is actually exporting is a warning label: this is simply what happens when ideological ambition outruns arithmetic. The country that once turned coal, steel and steam into global dominance now turns high energy costs into factory closures and calls it progress. Decarbonisation without competitiveness is emphatically not leadership, it is self-harm with a press release and the rest of the world is watching carefully, learning not to follow, but to absolutely avoid making the same mistakes.
NATO: “The alliance is not failing because of freeloaders. The alliance is trapped inside a feedback loop where the war meant to demonstrate American resolve is generating the revenue that funds the threat the alliance was built to deter. And the country profiting most from that loop just vetoed the only vote that could have broken it.” Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
LOTFW:
🇬🇧 I SAID IT MONTHS AGO, the notion of the UK as an AI CENTRE beyond being A creative lab, was just fanciful political BS. It really IS a peculiar national achievement to have invented the modern industrial world and then volunteer as the case study in how to dismantle it. Ed Miliband speaks of leadership on net zero, but what Britain is actually exporting is a warning label: this is simply what happens when ideological ambition outruns arithmetic. The country that once turned coal, steel and steam into global dominance now turns high energy costs into factory closures and calls it progress. Decarbonisation without competitiveness is emphatically not leadership, it is self-harm with a press release and the rest of the world is watching carefully, learning not to follow, but to absolutely avoid making the same mistakes.
NATO: “The alliance is not failing because of freeloaders. The alliance is trapped inside a feedback loop where the war meant to demonstrate American resolve is generating the revenue that funds the threat the alliance was built to deter. And the country profiting most from that loop just vetoed the only vote that could have broken it.” Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
Nutstuff
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More Trump ….
Macro: ITALY & BRAZIL. Both have key ETF’s and should be represented in any macro-overlay thematic. (Look at 5-10yr charts here, re-ratings continue.)
Stocks: ALLB US/ ALLBIRDS: wowww thats a crazy strategic pivot; from shoes to AI, stock explodes 195%!!!
Mag 7: GOOGL resumes its uptrend as AMZN also wakes up. (Nutstuff has. A key “pair” on here …)
2 key LAGGARDS, interestingly flagged by both those smart technicians at Strategas and also good friend Conor Smith! BLOOM US / Bloom energy & BLUE OWL US.
Nuclear/Uranium: Thoughts today on Nutstuff with 2x KEY focus ideas.
TESLA: The Tesla AI5 chip is now finalised for production, this IS big news to those that know.
2 KEY UK stocks making new highs, 1x DePin tech and another Biotech. 🚀 Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
Macro: ITALY & BRAZIL. Both have key ETF’s and should be represented in any macro-overlay thematic. (Look at 5-10yr charts here, re-ratings continue.)
Stocks: ALLB US/ ALLBIRDS: wowww thats a crazy strategic pivot; from shoes to AI, stock explodes 195%!!!
Mag 7: GOOGL resumes its uptrend as AMZN also wakes up. (Nutstuff has. A key “pair” on here …)
2 key LAGGARDS, interestingly flagged by both those smart technicians at Strategas and also good friend Conor Smith! BLOOM US / Bloom energy & BLUE OWL US.
Nuclear/Uranium: Thoughts today on Nutstuff with 2x KEY focus ideas.
TESLA: The Tesla AI5 chip is now finalised for production, this IS big news to those that know.
2 KEY UK stocks making new highs, 1x DePin tech and another Biotech. 🚀 Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
Nutstuff
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❤2
We go into a weekend with roaring stock markets, benign bonds (thats the thing to watch!) the reality of a NEW ceasefire in Lebanon and HOPE of one holding in Iran. The Nutstuff Portfolio +11% YTD and +4% this week, so ‘protecting’ in a DOWN market and ‘participating’ in an UP.
On Iran/ Middle East:
FOX NEWS: “The USS George H. W. Bush strike group had to go around the southern tip of Africa after being overpowered by the Houthis in Yemen. $1.51B loss.”
So, we can’t get a strike group through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait but Trump thinks he’s going to control the Strait of Hormuz.
POLITICS: The latest UK 🇬🇧 Westminster UK Political shenanigans with his hapless & hopeless and dishonest Government gives Nutstuff hope of a sooner end or possible change.
Details as am sure you can all read: Downing Street says that neither Keir Starmer nor David Lammy knew that Peter Mandelson failed his security vetting, and lays blame with Foreign Office official for overruling the decision.YET! the Foreign Office was ‘encouraged’ to deploy a rarely-used power to override the recommendation from security officials. Last night Olly Robbins resigns (pushed or jumped?!) as the top civil servant in the Foreign Office.
Nutstuff fully agrees with this: The only question which matters in British politics tonight is this: does Oliver Robbins lose his mobile suddenly or does he have the receipts? If he told a single person in No10/the private office or any minister, Starmer’s position is untenable! Lets hope “Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his friends for his life”!
This arguably impacts my Energy & North Sea positioning also in my Contrarian exposures Bullish on broader UK opportunities; am adding another NEW position in the UK today. A Company founded pre 1900 with real assets, its tiny but is ludicrously undervalued cash rich and with real catalysts.
Everything I see is the increasingly logical undermining of Miliband….The Times: New oil and gas drilling in the North Sea is the ‘quickest way’ to boost supplies, Rachel Reeves has said; ministers were working ‘pretty intensely’ to open up ‘tie-back’ arrangements, which allow more fossil fuel extraction next to existing oil field
STOCKS:
How anyone could have stayed with big positions in Luxury Stocks makes you despair! It seems incredibly logical to see LIV golf as maybe the 1st casualty of Middle Eastern pull-back reality!
Nutstuff remains constructive and positive on Bitcoin, CRCL US, GRASS US (+64% in 6 weeks) and other related digital and Technology assets; NBIS being one of them. Conviction also remains on key Offshore Services and Seismic names and Uranium. ***Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
On Iran/ Middle East:
FOX NEWS: “The USS George H. W. Bush strike group had to go around the southern tip of Africa after being overpowered by the Houthis in Yemen. $1.51B loss.”
So, we can’t get a strike group through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait but Trump thinks he’s going to control the Strait of Hormuz.
POLITICS: The latest UK 🇬🇧 Westminster UK Political shenanigans with his hapless & hopeless and dishonest Government gives Nutstuff hope of a sooner end or possible change.
Details as am sure you can all read: Downing Street says that neither Keir Starmer nor David Lammy knew that Peter Mandelson failed his security vetting, and lays blame with Foreign Office official for overruling the decision.YET! the Foreign Office was ‘encouraged’ to deploy a rarely-used power to override the recommendation from security officials. Last night Olly Robbins resigns (pushed or jumped?!) as the top civil servant in the Foreign Office.
Nutstuff fully agrees with this: The only question which matters in British politics tonight is this: does Oliver Robbins lose his mobile suddenly or does he have the receipts? If he told a single person in No10/the private office or any minister, Starmer’s position is untenable! Lets hope “Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his friends for his life”!
This arguably impacts my Energy & North Sea positioning also in my Contrarian exposures Bullish on broader UK opportunities; am adding another NEW position in the UK today. A Company founded pre 1900 with real assets, its tiny but is ludicrously undervalued cash rich and with real catalysts.
Everything I see is the increasingly logical undermining of Miliband….The Times: New oil and gas drilling in the North Sea is the ‘quickest way’ to boost supplies, Rachel Reeves has said; ministers were working ‘pretty intensely’ to open up ‘tie-back’ arrangements, which allow more fossil fuel extraction next to existing oil field
STOCKS:
How anyone could have stayed with big positions in Luxury Stocks makes you despair! It seems incredibly logical to see LIV golf as maybe the 1st casualty of Middle Eastern pull-back reality!
Nutstuff remains constructive and positive on Bitcoin, CRCL US, GRASS US (+64% in 6 weeks) and other related digital and Technology assets; NBIS being one of them. Conviction also remains on key Offshore Services and Seismic names and Uranium. ***Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
Nutstuff
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❤1
“PUFFING WEED & MICRO-DOSING!” 3 KEY STOCKS; charts all scream 🚀
For years not months Nutstuff has talked Cannabis, Nuclear fuel stocks, rare earths and now the latest PORTFOLIO BUY: FERMI/ FRMI US.
…
For Context on Psychedelics and Cannabis…
“In the glittering circus of an indebted, entitled, increasingly materialistic, and morally bankrupt USA, where the masses stay blissfully plugged into their glowing screens, puffing cannabis, and micro-dosing psychedelics like it’s the new national pastime, there’s a deliciously brutal irony at play: President Trump, with his signature blend of chaotic communication and unfiltered bravado, has thrown policy lifelines to both industries. Gosh Nutstuff cannot think why!?
He signed the marijuana rescheduling executive order back in December 2025 and, just days ago on April 18, 2026, dropped another bombshell accelerating research into psychedelics (psilocybin, ibogaine, etc.) for serious mental illness, complete with FDA priority vouchers, $50 million in funding, and expanded Right to Try access framed around veterans’ PTSD and a mental health crisis, not some nefarious plot to numb the revolting masses into tolerating his “revolting” style, but because pragmatic deregulation apparently beats prohibition in this upside-down morality play.…..”
Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
For years not months Nutstuff has talked Cannabis, Nuclear fuel stocks, rare earths and now the latest PORTFOLIO BUY: FERMI/ FRMI US.
…
For Context on Psychedelics and Cannabis…
“In the glittering circus of an indebted, entitled, increasingly materialistic, and morally bankrupt USA, where the masses stay blissfully plugged into their glowing screens, puffing cannabis, and micro-dosing psychedelics like it’s the new national pastime, there’s a deliciously brutal irony at play: President Trump, with his signature blend of chaotic communication and unfiltered bravado, has thrown policy lifelines to both industries. Gosh Nutstuff cannot think why!?
He signed the marijuana rescheduling executive order back in December 2025 and, just days ago on April 18, 2026, dropped another bombshell accelerating research into psychedelics (psilocybin, ibogaine, etc.) for serious mental illness, complete with FDA priority vouchers, $50 million in funding, and expanded Right to Try access framed around veterans’ PTSD and a mental health crisis, not some nefarious plot to numb the revolting masses into tolerating his “revolting” style, but because pragmatic deregulation apparently beats prohibition in this upside-down morality play.…..”
Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
Nutstuff
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Markets are always about “Known unknowns vs Unknown unknowns”. ( the ones that kill you!)! I still don’t think it’s dawned on most investors that Hormuz simply isn’t opening until Iran wants it open. Oil is finally starting to get frisky ⬆️ and I think we’re getting to the point where the market is going to be forced to care that this is about to seriously break stuff. A Simple Reality bites!
I watch Bonds, I never own them!
Bond yields however have now surged, 10-year gilts topping 5% for the first time since 2008; 30-year Treasury yields hitting 5% for the first time this year; and a Japanese yen >160 to the dollar. All key inflation is imminent alarm bells.
Again: Wars ( and peace & prosperity) are all now about Maslows Pyramid & “Needs”,
that is both Oil & Semis; and you have to have exposure to both. I however own Oil (Energy weighting) as @ 4:1 ratio to Semis!
Crude Oil is at $120¥ and of all the Nutstuff Portfolio changes, I am happiest with my December Crude Oil options buy of 10days ago vs worrying about $12 trillion of Mag 7 Mkt cap. This joins big posns in Deepwater & Oil svcs and UK & North sea energy names.
Now to Mag 7 as everyone is blabbering.
Herewith the a/hrs 📊 charts.
“AI speaks like a genius but eats like a ravenous machine”, and this quarter shows exactly what that that diet costs; tens of billions in capex, relentless, unapologetic, and absolutely necessary. The market is still pretending this is a software margin story when in reality it is a utilities build-out!
To be clear Nutstuff ONLY owns Alphabet ( and Qcom) and my AMAZON “avoid” of the last 4 yrs just came off.
Nutstuff is a simple soul, so I see things as follows: oh! www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
I watch Bonds, I never own them!
Bond yields however have now surged, 10-year gilts topping 5% for the first time since 2008; 30-year Treasury yields hitting 5% for the first time this year; and a Japanese yen >160 to the dollar. All key inflation is imminent alarm bells.
Again: Wars ( and peace & prosperity) are all now about Maslows Pyramid & “Needs”,
that is both Oil & Semis; and you have to have exposure to both. I however own Oil (Energy weighting) as @ 4:1 ratio to Semis!
Crude Oil is at $120¥ and of all the Nutstuff Portfolio changes, I am happiest with my December Crude Oil options buy of 10days ago vs worrying about $12 trillion of Mag 7 Mkt cap. This joins big posns in Deepwater & Oil svcs and UK & North sea energy names.
Now to Mag 7 as everyone is blabbering.
Herewith the a/hrs 📊 charts.
“AI speaks like a genius but eats like a ravenous machine”, and this quarter shows exactly what that that diet costs; tens of billions in capex, relentless, unapologetic, and absolutely necessary. The market is still pretending this is a software margin story when in reality it is a utilities build-out!
To be clear Nutstuff ONLY owns Alphabet ( and Qcom) and my AMAZON “avoid” of the last 4 yrs just came off.
Nutstuff is a simple soul, so I see things as follows: oh! www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
Nutstuff out tomorrow/ thursday.
To explain the talk of “Peace ”: Rubio pronounced: “Operation "Epic Fury" has ended”. President Trump announced this to Congress.
Now we're apparently at the "Project Freedom" stage, and negotiations on the nuclear issue.
So to Explain: By declaring the end of Operation "Epic Fury," the Trump administration avoided the need to obtain Congressional approval for a military operation lasting more than 60 days. If necessary, a new operation will be launched, or any further military action will be part of the "Project Freedom", whose stated goal is to "defensively" release the ship bottleneck in Hormuz that never existed before Trump spent $100bn?!
Anyway: Whats very clear was HF’s were massively UW US stocks. For weeks markets have been childishly simple: stay long, let the underweight cohort choke on their own caution, and allow the mechanical bid to do what it always does when positioning is wrong, force prices higher until disbelief turns into panic buying. It has worked. Handsomely. But markets rarely reward those who linger at the scene of the crime…
Lets see how the CTA bid now looks…
Now lets think about a WHAT IF ITS PEACE psychology.? Do we actually sell the $ and the peace!? Most perverse might be a Market that can be so ironic it may now even buy not sell defence stocks!?
Nutstuff has added to Digital Assets MSTR US & STRC, and is also adding to Wifi DABBA DBT (token) the Indian Helium/ HNT. ( see Nutstuff tomorrow).
Lets think ENERGY: Near term: The +40%+ ytd will be -10-15% quickly.
INVERSELY: on the other side: Buy Airlines:
UAL US! Should track WIZZ EASYJET etc / Eu Industrials; FRESNILLO BASF & MITTAL
Also Watch Chinese Stocks; I add to KWEB US ETF or BABA TENCENT & BIDU as the “Key 3!”
XSG LN / XEROS: again solid move on full guidance, back to Oct 25 levels!
Caveat here is: to all those unloading Energy and commodities here; all these bottle necks dont just get sorted anytime.
www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
To explain the talk of “Peace ”: Rubio pronounced: “Operation "Epic Fury" has ended”. President Trump announced this to Congress.
Now we're apparently at the "Project Freedom" stage, and negotiations on the nuclear issue.
So to Explain: By declaring the end of Operation "Epic Fury," the Trump administration avoided the need to obtain Congressional approval for a military operation lasting more than 60 days. If necessary, a new operation will be launched, or any further military action will be part of the "Project Freedom", whose stated goal is to "defensively" release the ship bottleneck in Hormuz that never existed before Trump spent $100bn?!
Anyway: Whats very clear was HF’s were massively UW US stocks. For weeks markets have been childishly simple: stay long, let the underweight cohort choke on their own caution, and allow the mechanical bid to do what it always does when positioning is wrong, force prices higher until disbelief turns into panic buying. It has worked. Handsomely. But markets rarely reward those who linger at the scene of the crime…
Lets see how the CTA bid now looks…
Now lets think about a WHAT IF ITS PEACE psychology.? Do we actually sell the $ and the peace!? Most perverse might be a Market that can be so ironic it may now even buy not sell defence stocks!?
Nutstuff has added to Digital Assets MSTR US & STRC, and is also adding to Wifi DABBA DBT (token) the Indian Helium/ HNT. ( see Nutstuff tomorrow).
Lets think ENERGY: Near term: The +40%+ ytd will be -10-15% quickly.
INVERSELY: on the other side: Buy Airlines:
UAL US! Should track WIZZ EASYJET etc / Eu Industrials; FRESNILLO BASF & MITTAL
Also Watch Chinese Stocks; I add to KWEB US ETF or BABA TENCENT & BIDU as the “Key 3!”
XSG LN / XEROS: again solid move on full guidance, back to Oct 25 levels!
Caveat here is: to all those unloading Energy and commodities here; all these bottle necks dont just get sorted anytime.
www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
Nutstuff is publishing again tomorrow…
A reminder that this Telegram is “Free” and is simply designed to supplement being a Nutstuff subscriber. I publish Nutstuff 2-3x / week so this fills the gaps! I will on occasions flag actual stocks HERE going forward but this is really designed to alert you and remind you to key thematics that matter in wider sense or are connected to Ideas that generate Alpha. (Stocks that make us money! ) www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
PORTFOLIO & MARKETS: +14% YTD is a good result and we are not stuffed full of roaring semiconductors!
I am much more interested in waiting for my Digital asset exposures to pick up! My Uranium Fuel plays I will mention: Great news and reactions on both ASPI yesterday and LIGHTBRIDGE/LTBR US today. In COMMODITIES: POWER NICKEL/ PNPN CN.
Now its ironic that for all the UK misery out there, am happy to flag huge sources of alpha in last 12+mths and YTD: TUNGSTEN WEST / RASPBERRY PI / SCANCELL.
UK “Spec sits”: UK FARMING STOCKS (with assets not just in UK! ) & FOOD: I would still own CAMELLIA / CML LN, AEP LN (see today and that a chart!!!) also added some REA LN alongside recently.
TRUMP on his way to China: I can see deals fr many but on Peace there is “only one person who can/will open Hormuz”….
this made me 😹 https://x.com/cryptoxiaoxiang/status/2054344180198146469?s=61
UK: 🇬🇧: Tomorrow Bill Gross on the UK and my missive: “Britain Now Feels Like A Wetherspoons Carpet”. By Will Nutting. “Britain currently feels like a Wetherspoons carpet after closing time. Sticky. Fraying at the edges. Covered in mysterious stains nobody wants properly explained. Somewhere in the distance a fruit machine flashes beside a broken cubicle door while two exhausted policemen”…… 1200 words!
ENERGY stocks : I have much greater exposure here than I do to AI in Portfolio weight to be clear… here’s why!
TELECOM PLUS/ TEP LN: sorry, this has been a shocker! I have had a good chat with management. Understandably the dividend cut p*issed off a lot and I now see the Deutsche banks downgrade was dubiously motivated! More tomorrow.
BITCOIN & DIGITAL ASSETS: ‘Futility to Humility to Utility to Ubiquity”. “If there was ever a time Bitcoin was designed for, it is now”. The Clarity Act should be imminent: https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-senators-lummis-tillis-release-market-structure-bill-text-ahead-of-banking-committee-markup Trump just told you what to do!
Nutstuff added STRC last week and am watching MSTR as is now back to a premium. I will discuss tomorrow the single most interesting Idea in Digital assets land which is finally going to work.
INFLATION outpacing wages is a reality, and Inflation is not just Oil. I look at all constituents of all 4 CPI measures!
ENERGY: I have much greater exposure here than I do to AI in Portfolio weight to be clear…
I agree with a number of people much smarter in the Energy and Bottle-necked commodities space that long-term energy investors should ignore short-term volatility and let “them" (the bears) bank their victories on minor pullbacks, as what I see as the fundamental supply/demand gap will eventually trigger a massive upward rerating of energy equities. To put it succinctly: ”the global economy is entering a period of "forced rebalancing” and the physical market is now in a state of terminal deficit that only triple-digit oil prices can solve.” Focus = The Nutstuff Portfolio Energy Basket.
A reminder that this Telegram is “Free” and is simply designed to supplement being a Nutstuff subscriber. I publish Nutstuff 2-3x / week so this fills the gaps! I will on occasions flag actual stocks HERE going forward but this is really designed to alert you and remind you to key thematics that matter in wider sense or are connected to Ideas that generate Alpha. (Stocks that make us money! ) www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
PORTFOLIO & MARKETS: +14% YTD is a good result and we are not stuffed full of roaring semiconductors!
I am much more interested in waiting for my Digital asset exposures to pick up! My Uranium Fuel plays I will mention: Great news and reactions on both ASPI yesterday and LIGHTBRIDGE/LTBR US today. In COMMODITIES: POWER NICKEL/ PNPN CN.
Now its ironic that for all the UK misery out there, am happy to flag huge sources of alpha in last 12+mths and YTD: TUNGSTEN WEST / RASPBERRY PI / SCANCELL.
UK “Spec sits”: UK FARMING STOCKS (with assets not just in UK! ) & FOOD: I would still own CAMELLIA / CML LN, AEP LN (see today and that a chart!!!) also added some REA LN alongside recently.
TRUMP on his way to China: I can see deals fr many but on Peace there is “only one person who can/will open Hormuz”….
this made me 😹 https://x.com/cryptoxiaoxiang/status/2054344180198146469?s=61
UK: 🇬🇧: Tomorrow Bill Gross on the UK and my missive: “Britain Now Feels Like A Wetherspoons Carpet”. By Will Nutting. “Britain currently feels like a Wetherspoons carpet after closing time. Sticky. Fraying at the edges. Covered in mysterious stains nobody wants properly explained. Somewhere in the distance a fruit machine flashes beside a broken cubicle door while two exhausted policemen”…… 1200 words!
ENERGY stocks : I have much greater exposure here than I do to AI in Portfolio weight to be clear… here’s why!
TELECOM PLUS/ TEP LN: sorry, this has been a shocker! I have had a good chat with management. Understandably the dividend cut p*issed off a lot and I now see the Deutsche banks downgrade was dubiously motivated! More tomorrow.
BITCOIN & DIGITAL ASSETS: ‘Futility to Humility to Utility to Ubiquity”. “If there was ever a time Bitcoin was designed for, it is now”. The Clarity Act should be imminent: https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-senators-lummis-tillis-release-market-structure-bill-text-ahead-of-banking-committee-markup Trump just told you what to do!
Nutstuff added STRC last week and am watching MSTR as is now back to a premium. I will discuss tomorrow the single most interesting Idea in Digital assets land which is finally going to work.
INFLATION outpacing wages is a reality, and Inflation is not just Oil. I look at all constituents of all 4 CPI measures!
ENERGY: I have much greater exposure here than I do to AI in Portfolio weight to be clear…
I agree with a number of people much smarter in the Energy and Bottle-necked commodities space that long-term energy investors should ignore short-term volatility and let “them" (the bears) bank their victories on minor pullbacks, as what I see as the fundamental supply/demand gap will eventually trigger a massive upward rerating of energy equities. To put it succinctly: ”the global economy is entering a period of "forced rebalancing” and the physical market is now in a state of terminal deficit that only triple-digit oil prices can solve.” Focus = The Nutstuff Portfolio Energy Basket.
X (formerly Twitter)
加密小象 (@cryptoxiaoxiang) on X
今晚Trump和Xi会面之后的after party be like
The Nutstuff Portfolio is +12% YTD. Interestingly our ‘bar-bell’ is working well so far during the recent so-called “painful rotation” we read and hear so much babble about! Yes, I see the degree to which Retail investors are ‘all-in’ here and a huge amount of AI & tech FOMO, afraid am happy to take a lot of the other side of that. Out tomorrow on Nutstuff, I have written an update to my “AI thoughts from the hip”. Rest assured we ARE however being dynamic here, and I have added to a Nat Gas name and a Software co. (Not MSFT!) as the 2 latest Portfolio changes. (Again details tomorrow.) Interestingly we have 11 positions +5% to +36% in the last week alone and tomorrow I will have a detailed “Connect the dots” on the Nutstuff Portfolio YTD, I will go through themes & conviction as increasingly resembles exactly what we expected at the start of the year: the physical world beginning to reassert itself over the financial abstractions layered on top of it. Ex GS Jeff Currie, puts the argument for owning pounds in the ground rather than operating assets rather eloquently "Almost all commodities are nothing other than dirt and diesel. So, if you're out of diesel you've got a problem with everything". If no change in Hormuz soon then reality will bite in the next few weeks. Finally on Bonds where there is endless babble too. Nutstuff as a “Never Bonds” investor has written continually about “The Quickening’ as a glorious impending “coliseum bloodbath” when it comes, this happens because simply WTF would anyone lend money to any western govt for <10%?!! 10% real rates Indebted western economies REALLY dont work! Put simply Bond markets are finally violently reminded investors that capital still has a cost and that duration is not a law of nature but a function of liquidity. *Finally, the Lunacy of UK Energy policy is now being seen for all its double standards and illogicality. A Government in secret loosening Russian Oil sanctions is the stuff of madness. As I wrote to some friends: I think the modern British disease is that the moment you point out an obvious contradiction in energy policy you are immediately accused of being “pro-Putin”, as though acknowledging where diesel physically comes from is now tantamount to waving a hammer and sickle outside the Kremlin. Honestly the point here is not that Russia good or sanctions bad. The point is that Britain increasingly behaves like an upper-middle-class vegetarian secretly eating kebabs in the minicab home whilst loudly lecturing everyone else about animal cruelty. It is f* lunacy. We ban drilling in the North Sea, import the exact same molecules via India or Turkey at greater cost and emissions, then congratulate ourselves on our moral rectitude and courage. I say a simple foff. It is not strategy. This is national moral BS & self-delusion wrapped in a Just Stop Oil bag. www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
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Nutstuff was published yesterday.
3 Things Today:
1. From meetings this week I now more than ever see tokenisation of tangible assets is where new railroads of blockchain meets finance will go, and then I think we will all see and discover the true “value” of AI!”
2. Today a New Mega-Cap added: “sometimes markets become so obsessed with Ferraris that they forget aircraft carriers exist.”
3. FAT JABS!
Renewed Focus on ELI LILLY/ LLY US ….( we did own NOVO NORDISK too but exited a yr ago)
The new LLY GLP drug currently in Phase 3 data is just extraordinary…( a Weekend focus piece on Nutstuff coming) …”
Thematically, the valuation gap between AI and healthcare increasingly looks completely deranged when viewed through the lens of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.”
Nutstuff can see LLY as a $2 trillion + co.
***Nutstuff also agrees with this: The next GLP-1 problem won’t be efficacy it will be the massive scale. These drugs are moving from metabolic medicine into mass consumer behaviour at a speed the long-term data probably has no way absorbed. In five years the issue may not be “do they reduce weight? Is it fat or muscle?” Then, who should be on them, for how long, what happens when they stop, what happens to muscle mass/nutrition/mental health, and whether we’ve simply just medicalised a broken food system rather than fixing it.( tx G.O.)
www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
3 Things Today:
1. From meetings this week I now more than ever see tokenisation of tangible assets is where new railroads of blockchain meets finance will go, and then I think we will all see and discover the true “value” of AI!”
2. Today a New Mega-Cap added: “sometimes markets become so obsessed with Ferraris that they forget aircraft carriers exist.”
3. FAT JABS!
Renewed Focus on ELI LILLY/ LLY US ….( we did own NOVO NORDISK too but exited a yr ago)
The new LLY GLP drug currently in Phase 3 data is just extraordinary…( a Weekend focus piece on Nutstuff coming) …”
Thematically, the valuation gap between AI and healthcare increasingly looks completely deranged when viewed through the lens of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.”
Nutstuff can see LLY as a $2 trillion + co.
***Nutstuff also agrees with this: The next GLP-1 problem won’t be efficacy it will be the massive scale. These drugs are moving from metabolic medicine into mass consumer behaviour at a speed the long-term data probably has no way absorbed. In five years the issue may not be “do they reduce weight? Is it fat or muscle?” Then, who should be on them, for how long, what happens when they stop, what happens to muscle mass/nutrition/mental health, and whether we’ve simply just medicalised a broken food system rather than fixing it.( tx G.O.)
www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
Latest Nutstuff will be out tomorrow/ friday. ( another new spec-sit idea to go through).
I have been travelling this week and yes 35 degrees in Switzerland and now 37 degrees in France, all in May! Lets not even talk about London becoming the middle east! Where of course Peace is still ever elusive and Oil prices dont seem to care.
Is anyone watching what Russian Satellites are doing btw?!
WEEKEND EVENT: (Still a few tickets left!) This Saturday 30th May 1pm-5pm: My old friend Piers Buckworth has put this 1 day event together in Mayfair. Nutstuff is one of the 3 Presenters/Hosts.
Inside the Trade is a live one-day seminar at Princess Alexandra Hall, Six Park Place, Mayfair. Not a course. Not a webinar. It is live and three experienced market professionals giving you direct and unfiltered access to how they actually think. Whether you are new to markets or have been investing for years this event will change how you think about the process.
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/inside-the-trade-apex-trading-live-seminar-london-tickets-1980499001828
🇬🇧 A reminder that Nutstuff sat with T Blair a year ago in person and I said at the time I was blown away by his LOTFW perspective on so many things. Good now to see him finding his voice probably inspired by the rather odious and sanctimonious Andy Burnham goading him!
NUTSTUFF Portfolio is holding well +12% YTD.
Yes, annoyingly Digital assets are still the Portfolios sea anchor ;( but more than offset by names like QCOM & *** my Eu SpaceX ( monster alpha, wow!) and E*** my favourite EV / battery play and also 3 Key Uranium/ Nuclear names all showing their heels this week.
On what concerns: Gold, I’d be watching for any further signs of technical deterioration here!
On Thematics This week:
F*x you Ferrari. Enzo is turning in his grave and this is manna from heaven for Lamborghini! ( my detailed no punches pulled take on this tomorrow) remember my LONG vs my FWONK / Formula One “short”.
F*x you Ed Milband and your Net Zero lunacy ( well done T Blair for saying it!)
https://x.com/thecoastguy/status/2059643434382586299?s=46
A reminder on why Nutstuff so doggedly has sizeable UK & North Sea Energy bets.
www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
I have been travelling this week and yes 35 degrees in Switzerland and now 37 degrees in France, all in May! Lets not even talk about London becoming the middle east! Where of course Peace is still ever elusive and Oil prices dont seem to care.
Is anyone watching what Russian Satellites are doing btw?!
WEEKEND EVENT: (Still a few tickets left!) This Saturday 30th May 1pm-5pm: My old friend Piers Buckworth has put this 1 day event together in Mayfair. Nutstuff is one of the 3 Presenters/Hosts.
Inside the Trade is a live one-day seminar at Princess Alexandra Hall, Six Park Place, Mayfair. Not a course. Not a webinar. It is live and three experienced market professionals giving you direct and unfiltered access to how they actually think. Whether you are new to markets or have been investing for years this event will change how you think about the process.
https://www.eventbrite.co.uk/e/inside-the-trade-apex-trading-live-seminar-london-tickets-1980499001828
🇬🇧 A reminder that Nutstuff sat with T Blair a year ago in person and I said at the time I was blown away by his LOTFW perspective on so many things. Good now to see him finding his voice probably inspired by the rather odious and sanctimonious Andy Burnham goading him!
NUTSTUFF Portfolio is holding well +12% YTD.
Yes, annoyingly Digital assets are still the Portfolios sea anchor ;( but more than offset by names like QCOM & *** my Eu SpaceX ( monster alpha, wow!) and E*** my favourite EV / battery play and also 3 Key Uranium/ Nuclear names all showing their heels this week.
On what concerns: Gold, I’d be watching for any further signs of technical deterioration here!
On Thematics This week:
F*x you Ferrari. Enzo is turning in his grave and this is manna from heaven for Lamborghini! ( my detailed no punches pulled take on this tomorrow) remember my LONG vs my FWONK / Formula One “short”.
F*x you Ed Milband and your Net Zero lunacy ( well done T Blair for saying it!)
https://x.com/thecoastguy/status/2059643434382586299?s=46
A reminder on why Nutstuff so doggedly has sizeable UK & North Sea Energy bets.
www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!
Eventbrite
Inside the Trade · Apex Trading Live Seminar · London
Three professionals. 70+ years of institutional market experience. One room. One day in Mayfair.
❤1
The old man ( Buffett!) has finally put some cash to work.
And he didn’t buy Nvidia.
After building a cash pile north of $300 billion and spending years telling investors, through his actions rather than his words, that markets were expensive, Warren Buffett appears willing to commit roughly $7-8 billion to Taylor Morrison at $72.50 per share, a hefty premium to a stock trading on around 8-9x earnings. The market is obsessed with AI, crowded into a handful of mega-cap technology names and paying extraordinary multiples for future promises. Buffett just reached for a company that builds houses in a country that remains millions of homes short. Nutstuff keeps coming back to the same thought: everyone is staring vertically up the AI stack, whilst Buffett is looking horizontally across the real economy. Houses, power, infrastructure, energy and all the physical things that civilisation still requires. Reality leaks physically before it leaks financially. The most important trade in the market may not be AI itself, but everything AI and human beings depend upon. Buffett’s cheque suggests he may agree.
And he didn’t buy Nvidia.
After building a cash pile north of $300 billion and spending years telling investors, through his actions rather than his words, that markets were expensive, Warren Buffett appears willing to commit roughly $7-8 billion to Taylor Morrison at $72.50 per share, a hefty premium to a stock trading on around 8-9x earnings. The market is obsessed with AI, crowded into a handful of mega-cap technology names and paying extraordinary multiples for future promises. Buffett just reached for a company that builds houses in a country that remains millions of homes short. Nutstuff keeps coming back to the same thought: everyone is staring vertically up the AI stack, whilst Buffett is looking horizontally across the real economy. Houses, power, infrastructure, energy and all the physical things that civilisation still requires. Reality leaks physically before it leaks financially. The most important trade in the market may not be AI itself, but everything AI and human beings depend upon. Buffett’s cheque suggests he may agree.
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Boringly very little to add.. More in Nutstuff Letter out tomorrow.
Thankfully the Nutstuff bar-bell is working well and in a rotational mkt our “oversold software SAAS adds” of 2 weeks ago have really paid dividends. Digital/ crypto, the liquidity suck out of it is painful but just have to take it. ( more tomorrow and some really positive news finally emerging in Depin land!)
Then 2 hrs with a prominent Uranium CEO yesterday only served to strengthen my resolve here and am adding another small spec-sit holding. See UEC US yday!
Also No let up in Energy …
Then there is SPACE-X… Lets make this really simple: SpaceX: “Engineered to work!” Passive guys will back-stop this. Some Retail will also get to play… Speedy index inclusion and speedy lock-up means people who dont normally care on IPO’s will have to. Normally no need to look for 6mths at an IPO… Brahma and Fidelity never used to care. July lock-up. Think a 1% weight immediately going to 2% July and 3% by September.
Thankfully the Nutstuff bar-bell is working well and in a rotational mkt our “oversold software SAAS adds” of 2 weeks ago have really paid dividends. Digital/ crypto, the liquidity suck out of it is painful but just have to take it. ( more tomorrow and some really positive news finally emerging in Depin land!)
Then 2 hrs with a prominent Uranium CEO yesterday only served to strengthen my resolve here and am adding another small spec-sit holding. See UEC US yday!
Also No let up in Energy …
Then there is SPACE-X… Lets make this really simple: SpaceX: “Engineered to work!” Passive guys will back-stop this. Some Retail will also get to play… Speedy index inclusion and speedy lock-up means people who dont normally care on IPO’s will have to. Normally no need to look for 6mths at an IPO… Brahma and Fidelity never used to care. July lock-up. Think a 1% weight immediately going to 2% July and 3% by September.
Sorry, Nutstuff will publish tomorrow/ Friday. R.I.P. Alex.
A Hugely sad day today, for me personally and for the Country, losing (Sir) Alex Younger to cancer, just 62. The Former head of MI6, ex Scots Guards officer, strategist, diplomat and genuinely one of the finest practitioners of British soft power of his generation. Alex was a source of charm, wisdom humility and great perspective to Nutstuff in the last 5years. Alex was a “Gentleman Spook”, ask me what the UK has produced better than anywhere else on earth through generations then it is this and Alex was as good as any! He led MI6 through ISIS, Brexit, Russian adventurism and also the early innings of the AI age, but what set him apart was not his intelligence alone, it was his innate judgement. He understood something markets, politicians and technologists consistently forget: information is abundant, wisdom is scarce. Alex could absorb complexity, strip away the noise and simply focus you in on what mattered. Yes, it was him who constantly reminded me that AI may one day outperform humans in analysis, but it cannot replicate trust, intuition, empathy, discretion or the ability to understand what is left unsaid. In an increasingly automated world, those qualities become more valuable, not less. Britain has lost a remarkably thoughtful public servant, and there are precious few of his calibre coming through behind him.
A BUBBLY Market, yes for sure. Energy/ North Sea & SAAS and Quantum (New add last week! ) see Quantinium IPO priced at $60 last night! )Nutstuff QUANTUM thoughts out tomorrow!)
China tech the good spaces/ Bitcoin et al the blow-offs down.
Ask yourself a simple question! What was Microns earnings estimate <12mths ago and now ask what % Micron is of 2027 S&P500 future earnings estimates!!!?
THIS WEEK: A raft of learning / reading and meetings this week in Special-sit/ uncorrelated alpha space.
***Music, my (Ocean Wall credit!) UK Spec-sit play finally really moving, I learned much more about catalysts and progress so this is VERY exciting.
***ROBIN-HOOD/ HOOD US. Have learned a lot more. As within same vertical of REVOLUT (private) they get User interface and the Products the investors of the future want.
***URANIUM/ Nuclear: has been a good few days and I now more than ever see the path to $300/lb for Uranium. A NEW name, tiny added into the Portfolio.
***In Healthcare: On Marijuana and GLP1’s where my conviction further expands and abounds! Stocks specifics and Market expansion. The data is ASTOUNDING…
***On Digital Assets and Bitcoin (I have detailed thoughts) but I now finally see huge progress in “Utility” blockchain and DePIn plays which encourages as I see the 50% + draw down in Bitcoin which to many torpedoes any “store of value” arguments. I get the frustration but “it’s always darkest before dawn”…. Thoughts to come. HELIUM/ HNT has been dire but really is worth watching now.
***Venezuela and Oil. My good friend Yurta has me looking at a UK listed dirt-cheap Energy play.
Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
A Hugely sad day today, for me personally and for the Country, losing (Sir) Alex Younger to cancer, just 62. The Former head of MI6, ex Scots Guards officer, strategist, diplomat and genuinely one of the finest practitioners of British soft power of his generation. Alex was a source of charm, wisdom humility and great perspective to Nutstuff in the last 5years. Alex was a “Gentleman Spook”, ask me what the UK has produced better than anywhere else on earth through generations then it is this and Alex was as good as any! He led MI6 through ISIS, Brexit, Russian adventurism and also the early innings of the AI age, but what set him apart was not his intelligence alone, it was his innate judgement. He understood something markets, politicians and technologists consistently forget: information is abundant, wisdom is scarce. Alex could absorb complexity, strip away the noise and simply focus you in on what mattered. Yes, it was him who constantly reminded me that AI may one day outperform humans in analysis, but it cannot replicate trust, intuition, empathy, discretion or the ability to understand what is left unsaid. In an increasingly automated world, those qualities become more valuable, not less. Britain has lost a remarkably thoughtful public servant, and there are precious few of his calibre coming through behind him.
A BUBBLY Market, yes for sure. Energy/ North Sea & SAAS and Quantum (New add last week! ) see Quantinium IPO priced at $60 last night! )Nutstuff QUANTUM thoughts out tomorrow!)
China tech the good spaces/ Bitcoin et al the blow-offs down.
Ask yourself a simple question! What was Microns earnings estimate <12mths ago and now ask what % Micron is of 2027 S&P500 future earnings estimates!!!?
THIS WEEK: A raft of learning / reading and meetings this week in Special-sit/ uncorrelated alpha space.
***Music, my (Ocean Wall credit!) UK Spec-sit play finally really moving, I learned much more about catalysts and progress so this is VERY exciting.
***ROBIN-HOOD/ HOOD US. Have learned a lot more. As within same vertical of REVOLUT (private) they get User interface and the Products the investors of the future want.
***URANIUM/ Nuclear: has been a good few days and I now more than ever see the path to $300/lb for Uranium. A NEW name, tiny added into the Portfolio.
***In Healthcare: On Marijuana and GLP1’s where my conviction further expands and abounds! Stocks specifics and Market expansion. The data is ASTOUNDING…
***On Digital Assets and Bitcoin (I have detailed thoughts) but I now finally see huge progress in “Utility” blockchain and DePIn plays which encourages as I see the 50% + draw down in Bitcoin which to many torpedoes any “store of value” arguments. I get the frustration but “it’s always darkest before dawn”…. Thoughts to come. HELIUM/ HNT has been dire but really is worth watching now.
***Venezuela and Oil. My good friend Yurta has me looking at a UK listed dirt-cheap Energy play.
Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe
Nutstuff
Subscriptions | Nutstuff
❤1
Nutstuff loves AI but at the same time has said, “Dance hard, but do so near the fire exits.” One of the things making me increasingly cautious on semiconductors is that the market seems to be extrapolating today's shortages while largely ignoring tomorrow's supply. The latest example comes from South Korea, where China's YMTC has re-entered the market through its Zhitai brand with PCIe 5.0 SSDs that are no longer competing at the low end, but directly against Samsung's premium offerings. That is significant because it challenges one of the market's most comfortable assumptions: that China remains years behind in advanced memory technology. If YMTC can deliver competitive performance at lower prices while simultaneously bringing vast new capacity online, then the industry's economics may prove far less durable than investors currently assume. At the same time, Wall Street's optimism has become increasingly concentrated. The oft-quoted claim that Micron represents 30% of 2027 S&P earnings appears overstated, but the reality is still extraordinary. Current estimates suggest Micron alone accounts for roughly 7% of expected S&P 500 EPS growth in 2027, while Nvidia and Micron together drive around one-third of projected index earnings growth. That is a remarkable concentration of expectations in two companies whose fortunes are heavily tied to the continuation of today's AI infrastructure boom. My concern is not that AI fails. Quite the opposite. My concern is that AI succeeds, attracts unprecedented amounts of capital, and in doing so triggers the same cycle that has defined semiconductors for decades. Shortages create extraordinary profits. Extraordinary profits attract enormous investment. Enormous investment eventually creates excess capacity. The Korean YMTC news matters because it provides a glimpse of what that future may look like. Investors have become fixated on demand for AI chips, memory and compute, while paying far less attention to the sheer volume of supply now being built globally. The irony is that the more successful AI becomes, the greater the incentive for competitors, governments and new entrants to flood the market with capacity. China's ambitions extend well beyond mature-node chips. If YMTC's expansion plans materialise, and if software innovations from the likes of DeepSeek and others continue reducing memory requirements, then today's assumptions around pricing power, margins and earnings durability could prove wildly optimistic. Investors are increasingly valuing semiconductor companies as though scarcity is permanent. History suggests scarcity is usually the most temporary thing in markets. In brutally simple terms, the AI boom has convinced investors that every shovel seller will become rich. The YMTC development is a reminder that China is busy building shovel factories. Lots of them. If they work, the technology revolution will remain real, but the profits available to today's incumbents may look very different from the ones currently embedded in consensus forecasts and market valuations.
👍2
Nutstuff is travelling this week. Back tomorrow. Nutstuff will be published tomorrow.
A detailed think piece on HELIUM/ HNT and on BITCOIN and how to think about these both with their inter-relationship with AI. Yes on HNT/Helium of course a giant mea-culpa but rest-assured I absolutely see what is going on here and the opportunity vs the Tokens Market cap is a total disconnect to be exploited! Simplistically, yes Satellite benefits mobile users under the open sky but 80% of mobile data is used indoors, & demand is 1,000x higher in dense urban areas (where satellite struggles to keep up). Helium simply meets that demand with Hotspots or businesses converting their Wi-Fi through Helium Plus this is incredibly compelling if data useage is tied to HNT token consumption!
On Broader Markets: Meanwhile conflict seems fairly back on in the Middle East after the waffle and prevarication of the last few weeks and 38 separate “deals are imminent” BS from the Trump administration, 49 Tomahawks from the US into Iran and 12 Iranian Ballistic into Muwaffaq Salti (Al-Azraq) Airbase in Jordan with 12 ballistic missiles. Targets being Military: hangars of F-35, F-16, and F-15 fighter jets.
A Nutstuff Portfolio +8.5% YTD with 5% + manageable give-back during violent rotation in spaces like Uranium and AI in the last 5 days. My continual reiteration of having much bigger weightings in Energy & Healthcare vs AI, has been absolutely right. (Health Care has been the top-performing sector over the past month, its best five-day stretch versus the S&P 500 since 2009.) I can also see the case for adding to Banks/ KWEB US.
NORTH SEA & UK despite all the political uncertainty has been a great place for Nutstuffs asymmetric alpha with smaller special Sit ideas .. That said I see grim rumblings in the UK Gilt market. (More details tomorrow). A North-Sea Re-open is a simple WHEN not an IF anymore for all the reasons I have made clear for the last 18mths! Albert Edwards once described the UK Hilt market as “a bug looking for a windscreen”.
BITCOIN: some signs of stabilisation … better so than Gold right now!
Love this thought from JV: "If you think the world of human beings is going to dominate commerce, it's not. It's AI agents. So if you ask me what is a direct play on agents dominating humans going forward, I believe Bitcoin is a direct play on that. AI agents need to transact. They need to move value autonomously, instantly, without asking a bank for permission, without a human counterparty, without a clearing house. Bitcoin is the only monetary network that operates 24/7, requires no identity verification, has no counterparty, and cannot be shut down by any government. It is not designed for humans. It turns out it is designed for what comes after humans dominate commerce. It is clear you need decentralised identity and verification to control agent systems. Bitcoin is simpl;y the direct play on that world arriving. The AI agent economy does not need Visa. It actually needs Bitcoin”.
A detailed think piece on HELIUM/ HNT and on BITCOIN and how to think about these both with their inter-relationship with AI. Yes on HNT/Helium of course a giant mea-culpa but rest-assured I absolutely see what is going on here and the opportunity vs the Tokens Market cap is a total disconnect to be exploited! Simplistically, yes Satellite benefits mobile users under the open sky but 80% of mobile data is used indoors, & demand is 1,000x higher in dense urban areas (where satellite struggles to keep up). Helium simply meets that demand with Hotspots or businesses converting their Wi-Fi through Helium Plus this is incredibly compelling if data useage is tied to HNT token consumption!
On Broader Markets: Meanwhile conflict seems fairly back on in the Middle East after the waffle and prevarication of the last few weeks and 38 separate “deals are imminent” BS from the Trump administration, 49 Tomahawks from the US into Iran and 12 Iranian Ballistic into Muwaffaq Salti (Al-Azraq) Airbase in Jordan with 12 ballistic missiles. Targets being Military: hangars of F-35, F-16, and F-15 fighter jets.
A Nutstuff Portfolio +8.5% YTD with 5% + manageable give-back during violent rotation in spaces like Uranium and AI in the last 5 days. My continual reiteration of having much bigger weightings in Energy & Healthcare vs AI, has been absolutely right. (Health Care has been the top-performing sector over the past month, its best five-day stretch versus the S&P 500 since 2009.) I can also see the case for adding to Banks/ KWEB US.
NORTH SEA & UK despite all the political uncertainty has been a great place for Nutstuffs asymmetric alpha with smaller special Sit ideas .. That said I see grim rumblings in the UK Gilt market. (More details tomorrow). A North-Sea Re-open is a simple WHEN not an IF anymore for all the reasons I have made clear for the last 18mths! Albert Edwards once described the UK Hilt market as “a bug looking for a windscreen”.
BITCOIN: some signs of stabilisation … better so than Gold right now!
Love this thought from JV: "If you think the world of human beings is going to dominate commerce, it's not. It's AI agents. So if you ask me what is a direct play on agents dominating humans going forward, I believe Bitcoin is a direct play on that. AI agents need to transact. They need to move value autonomously, instantly, without asking a bank for permission, without a human counterparty, without a clearing house. Bitcoin is the only monetary network that operates 24/7, requires no identity verification, has no counterparty, and cannot be shut down by any government. It is not designed for humans. It turns out it is designed for what comes after humans dominate commerce. It is clear you need decentralised identity and verification to control agent systems. Bitcoin is simpl;y the direct play on that world arriving. The AI agent economy does not need Visa. It actually needs Bitcoin”.
NUTSTUFF THOUGHTS:
Jeremy Clarkson is a Nutstuff recipient, and his cancer news is another tragic reminder (too damned many recently!) of something markets periodically forget: health comes before everything. (See the latest Shingles vaccine news on effective Dementia treatment, wow!).
Before politics, before wars, before Bitcoin, before AI, before stock prices and before wealth. You can own Ferraris, farms, hedge funds, rockets or half the internet, but the moment a doctor walks into the room with bad news, every other number on the balance sheet suddenly becomes irrelevant. It is also a reminder that whilst investors spend their days obsessing over artificial intelligence, perhaps the biggest opportunity of all remains human intelligence applied to keeping people alive longer and healthier. The real battle for civilisation is not whether ChatGPT beats Anthropic or whether Bitcoin reaches $1 million. It is whether people like Clarkson are still around twenty years from now, annoying bureaucrats, and reminding us that life is supposed to be lived rather than optimised. Which is perhaps why the news hit so hard, because unlike almost everyone else in public life, Jeremy appears exactly as advertised. No filter, no consultants, no focus groups, no strategic authenticity workshops. Just Clarkson. And perhaps that is the key lesson for markets too here: Everyone is staring at AI presentations while life keeps reminding us that the things which matter remain stubbornly physical. Elon Musk is now worth more than Bitcoin, which tells you civilisation still places a higher value on people building rockets, satellites, robots, power systems and factories than on digital scarcity alone. OpenAI increasingly resembles a Michelin-starred restaurant selling £100 of culinary delight for £30 and wondering why profits remain elusive. The technology is extraordinary; the economics resemble a particularly enthusiastic bonfire of capital. Meanwhile Russia appears perfectly happy to remind Britain that gunboat diplomacy did not entirely disappear with the Empire, Ferrari has somehow convinced wealthy collectors to spend €550,000 on an electric car they do not want in order to buy a Ferrari they do want, Labour increasingly resembles a Venetian oligarchy where the same surnames endlessly circulate around Westminster, and governments across the West have simultaneously discovered that anonymous citizens talking freely to one another online are apparently a greater threat than debt, energy shortages, migration or national decline. Then there is Iran, don't get me started on Qatari “back door deals” with Iran sanctioned by the US and where what began as demands for total surrender appears to be ending with wider sanctions relief, oil exports, foreign investment and hundreds of billions of dollars flowing back towards Tehran. Which leaves one wondering whether anyone actually won at all. As ever, the more Nutstuff looks at markets, the more convinced we become that reality leaks physically before it leaks financially. The important stories are still healthcare, energy, shipping lanes, power grids, infrastructure and security. Everything else is mostly noise. The older we get, the less convinced we are that AI will be the defining investment story of the next twenty years. The defining story may simply be keeping human beings alive long enough to enjoy them.
Jeremy Clarkson is a Nutstuff recipient, and his cancer news is another tragic reminder (too damned many recently!) of something markets periodically forget: health comes before everything. (See the latest Shingles vaccine news on effective Dementia treatment, wow!).
Before politics, before wars, before Bitcoin, before AI, before stock prices and before wealth. You can own Ferraris, farms, hedge funds, rockets or half the internet, but the moment a doctor walks into the room with bad news, every other number on the balance sheet suddenly becomes irrelevant. It is also a reminder that whilst investors spend their days obsessing over artificial intelligence, perhaps the biggest opportunity of all remains human intelligence applied to keeping people alive longer and healthier. The real battle for civilisation is not whether ChatGPT beats Anthropic or whether Bitcoin reaches $1 million. It is whether people like Clarkson are still around twenty years from now, annoying bureaucrats, and reminding us that life is supposed to be lived rather than optimised. Which is perhaps why the news hit so hard, because unlike almost everyone else in public life, Jeremy appears exactly as advertised. No filter, no consultants, no focus groups, no strategic authenticity workshops. Just Clarkson. And perhaps that is the key lesson for markets too here: Everyone is staring at AI presentations while life keeps reminding us that the things which matter remain stubbornly physical. Elon Musk is now worth more than Bitcoin, which tells you civilisation still places a higher value on people building rockets, satellites, robots, power systems and factories than on digital scarcity alone. OpenAI increasingly resembles a Michelin-starred restaurant selling £100 of culinary delight for £30 and wondering why profits remain elusive. The technology is extraordinary; the economics resemble a particularly enthusiastic bonfire of capital. Meanwhile Russia appears perfectly happy to remind Britain that gunboat diplomacy did not entirely disappear with the Empire, Ferrari has somehow convinced wealthy collectors to spend €550,000 on an electric car they do not want in order to buy a Ferrari they do want, Labour increasingly resembles a Venetian oligarchy where the same surnames endlessly circulate around Westminster, and governments across the West have simultaneously discovered that anonymous citizens talking freely to one another online are apparently a greater threat than debt, energy shortages, migration or national decline. Then there is Iran, don't get me started on Qatari “back door deals” with Iran sanctioned by the US and where what began as demands for total surrender appears to be ending with wider sanctions relief, oil exports, foreign investment and hundreds of billions of dollars flowing back towards Tehran. Which leaves one wondering whether anyone actually won at all. As ever, the more Nutstuff looks at markets, the more convinced we become that reality leaks physically before it leaks financially. The important stories are still healthcare, energy, shipping lanes, power grids, infrastructure and security. Everything else is mostly noise. The older we get, the less convinced we are that AI will be the defining investment story of the next twenty years. The defining story may simply be keeping human beings alive long enough to enjoy them.
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Nutstuff is away.
VERY happy to see my Healthcare/ Wellcare/ Longevity plays really kicking in: went through Moderna/ MRNA joining LLY US.
Also see ATAI US & CMPS US here finally showing some alpha.
A mesmerising Gallipoli yesterday, Troy today… ( more on that tomorrow).
Honestly Gaza, Ukraine and Iran; you would think lessons have been learned from history…
Honestly, I wasnt going to bother watching “Citizen Vigilante”. (If this means nothing then you are living under a stone, maybe happily so!) but if Elon Musk has gone out of his way to inflame so many and advertise it then I’m going to watch this film. Not because I expect it to be good; let’s be honest, it’ll probably be about as subtle as a sledgehammer to the face but because it looks like the sort of gloriously over-the-top nonsense that knows exactly what it is. Think Sisu, only with even more things exploding and more senseless shooting for no obvious reason. It might be dreadful. It might be brilliant. It might somehow manage both simultaneously. But the moment politicians, censors and the professional nanny-state brigade start hyperventilating and telling me I’m not allowed to watch something, my instinct is to put the kettle on and do exactly that. Nothing sells a film better than people desperately trying to ban it. Sitting here in Turkey, surrounded by magnificent mosques and centuries of Islamic history, it also strikes me how Europe has become almost incapable of having an adult conversation about uncontrolled immigration, integration, parallel communities and Islamist extremism without immediately descending into hysterics. Those are real issues that deserve honest debate, and pretending they don’t exist helps nobody, not Muslims, not non-Muslims and certainly not liberal democracy. If anything, constantly trying to censor uncomfortable conversations merely fuels the anger and mistrust that produced a film like this in the first place. If liberal societies want to defeat extremism, they should do it with confident institutions, consistent justice and free debate, not by treating grown adults like children who need protecting from films. Sometimes the most revealing thing isn’t the movie itself. It’s the sheer panic it creates among the people trying to stop you watching it. ( Nutstuff)!
https://x.com/stephen55state/status/2071633648919465985?s=46
VERY happy to see my Healthcare/ Wellcare/ Longevity plays really kicking in: went through Moderna/ MRNA joining LLY US.
Also see ATAI US & CMPS US here finally showing some alpha.
A mesmerising Gallipoli yesterday, Troy today… ( more on that tomorrow).
Honestly Gaza, Ukraine and Iran; you would think lessons have been learned from history…
Honestly, I wasnt going to bother watching “Citizen Vigilante”. (If this means nothing then you are living under a stone, maybe happily so!) but if Elon Musk has gone out of his way to inflame so many and advertise it then I’m going to watch this film. Not because I expect it to be good; let’s be honest, it’ll probably be about as subtle as a sledgehammer to the face but because it looks like the sort of gloriously over-the-top nonsense that knows exactly what it is. Think Sisu, only with even more things exploding and more senseless shooting for no obvious reason. It might be dreadful. It might be brilliant. It might somehow manage both simultaneously. But the moment politicians, censors and the professional nanny-state brigade start hyperventilating and telling me I’m not allowed to watch something, my instinct is to put the kettle on and do exactly that. Nothing sells a film better than people desperately trying to ban it. Sitting here in Turkey, surrounded by magnificent mosques and centuries of Islamic history, it also strikes me how Europe has become almost incapable of having an adult conversation about uncontrolled immigration, integration, parallel communities and Islamist extremism without immediately descending into hysterics. Those are real issues that deserve honest debate, and pretending they don’t exist helps nobody, not Muslims, not non-Muslims and certainly not liberal democracy. If anything, constantly trying to censor uncomfortable conversations merely fuels the anger and mistrust that produced a film like this in the first place. If liberal societies want to defeat extremism, they should do it with confident institutions, consistent justice and free debate, not by treating grown adults like children who need protecting from films. Sometimes the most revealing thing isn’t the movie itself. It’s the sheer panic it creates among the people trying to stop you watching it. ( Nutstuff)!
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《公民义警》Citizen Vigilante，已经被欧洲政府封禁。却又因为Elon Musk的推送在全球极速热播。不能在电影院看，那就来推特看吧。
新移民数量的失控，已经让欧洲陷入绝境。美国和加拿大同样好不到哪里。如果政府无所作为，那就只剩下自然法则……
新移民数量的失控，已经让欧洲陷入绝境。美国和加拿大同样好不到哪里。如果政府无所作为，那就只剩下自然法则……