Tether! $500bn valuation! Wow!!!!! ( more in Nutstuff out tomorrow)

On Geo-Politics:
“For all the media outrage, Trump is right, and that’s precisely why it stings so much in Brussels and Westminster. For all the UN’s grandiose declarations and Europe’s endless moralising, Russia is still funding its war machine with European energy receipts, while Ukraine is drip-fed weapons just enough to bleed but not enough to win. It’s not that Kyiv lacks courage or capacity it’s that Europe lacks the will. The EU has spent more time arguing over solar subsidies than securing a decisive military strategy, and the UN is as useless as it was in Bosnia or Rwanda: all words, no teeth.  
Starmer, meanwhile, parades Net Zero as Britain’s defining mission. It isn’t. It’s a gigantic tax transfer, a pseudo-religion designed to cripple industry and consumers alike, all while doing precisely nothing to alter global emissions. Every turbine contract, every heat pump mandate, every EV subsidy is another nail in the coffin of competitiveness, another step in the long march towards managed decline. Russia and China must just marvel at the spectacle: their adversaries voluntarily disarming their economies under the guise of “saving the planet.” And then there’s immigration. The political class tells us it’s managed, humane, necessary. The reality? Unchecked, unvetted flows that overwhelm public services, crush wages, and erode social cohesion. The voters never asked for this, yet they’re told resistance is racist while elites carve out ever-more exemptions for themselves in gated communities and private schools. Trump however, for all his bombast and vulgarity cuts through to the obvious: Russia is probably weaker than it looks, Ukraine can win outright, but only if the West stops suffocating itself with green delusions, the UN’s hand-wringing, and open-door migration. It’s not Putin who is defeating Europe  it’s European leaders themselves, through cowardice, incompetence, and misplaced pieties.” (Nutstuff).

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BTC move ⬆️ to new highs right on cue!
Bitcoin remains Nutstuff Portfolios largest holding. 
The irony is exquisite: the very supply constrainted asset built to overthrow the system is now traded by the same institutions it was meant to destroy. The revolution got itself an ETF and a compliance department!  Bitcoin is a mirror held up to the absurdity of modern money. It rises every time central banks prove its simple point that printing has huge consequences. It’s Schrodinger’s currency: both scam and salvation; but much better to own the joke than be the punchline.

Thx 10X! For picture…

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Sorry, a wry Nutstuff smile as the GOM’s ( Grumpie Old Men) are all sneering again; its the the usual chorus of grey-templed cynics wheezing about “AI bubbles” and “AMD overpaying for compute,” as if they’ve just discovered valuation discipline after a decade of buying artisnal coffee & SPACs. Of course there is the ever more predictable blab of this being the paying of an ever larger Mastercard bill with your Visa-card, sure it sounds cute and catchy, but it totally misses the point: we’re not in the phase where logic dictates, we’re in the phase where infrastructure gets built regardless of cost. WTFU, these are not just tech trades anymore, they’re industrial policy trades. Washington, Riyadh, Abu Dhabi, and half of Asia have decided AI is the new electricity and when governments decide something is the new electricity, they don’t ask what the multiple is. They pour concrete, lay cables, and buy every GPU they can get their hands on. Energy is money and the thing about every great industrial build-out; railways, fiber, AI compute is that it doesn’t just create winners, it actually debases the denominator. Governments and corporates borrow, print, and simply subsidise the future into existence. In that sort of environment, the currency stops being a store of value and starts being a coupon for participation.
Nutstuff is happy to dance hard but absolutely near the fire exit but I am firmly positioned that for the next few months maybe even quarters this mania continues to fund itself. Each chip order begets another data-centre tender, another power-contract signing, another sovereign AI fund, and the feedback loop hums on. So yes, maybe AMD is buying compute with compute but honestly so what? In 1840 people said the rail barons were “laying track to nowhere.” By 1850 they were running the economy. The old men in their value fcf & dividend cardigans can mutter about tulips and valuation discipline all they like but they will bleed assets here IMHO, and they’ll still be paying 20% more for the same stock when they finally admit it’s not a bubble, it’s a build-out. So, no, AI isn’t your Visa card, it is actually the payments network and the next few months are when the concrete gets poured. Nutstuff is staying long the mania until I see signs of the the music stopping.
Bitcoin remains my largest Portfolio posn. Yes, I know I am dull. ( we have NBIS & GOOGL and some Semis and loads of Uranium) my “value” remains in commodities Energy and Uranium/ Nuclear.


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Nutstuff out today ..

Hargreaves Lansdown (1.8m clients)  all too predictable refusal to acknowledge bitcoin as an asset class. ( my take). 

FRIDAYS MARKETS:
like a SPA DAY. A DETOX maybe better an ENEMA or a “CLEANSE”. Violent, necessary, and sometimes oddly refreshing. 

THE WORLD HAS SIMPLY CHANGED:
This is the first time in 150 years that another country has the capability and courage to impose consequential sanctions on the US. They know where to poke the spear and the West is only now waking up to where the weak spots are in their armour! (Nutstuff has talked about owning MASLOWS pyramid of NEEDS for >2yrs!) 
a lot of our 5+yr alpha has comes from it and still does. The crescendo now makes me materially more cautious on some! 

MARKETS: as ever I am open to being proven wrong, but I expect Beijing to exercise restraint and leverage high-level communication channels with Washington to resolve the current deadlock. If that right then investors should consider buying the dip.”   
Over the weekend the degree of Garbage and Bed-wetting market analysis from many who should know better really plumbed new depths. I simply say “No crying allowed in the casino”. 
With returns comes risk. That is a part of the game. Lets now see if all the GOM’s calling for a market reset are smiling into their cornflakes today! As for all the Crypto Bla bla, I now cant wait for the most hated rally in Digital assets history. As to “Fools and their money are easily parted”: yes of course anyone buying meme coins or Sh*tcoins backed by nothing on 10x levereage is simply foolish. 
Nutstuff however thankfully spent the day yesterday listening to and talking to many more interesting people; the likes of the brilliant Carol Woolton on Jewellery and its history, crime authors: Anthony Horowitz and Ian Rankin on murder and why they ignore “AI”. William Boyd on spies. And Peter Frankopan on History and Geography-politics. All at the brilliant Cliveden Literary Festival; (Nutstuff really must write a book!). I’d highlight Peter Frankopan as an Arabist/ Russian speaker I have long listened to and we talked back when Niger decided enough was enough with CFA franc and French colonialism 2 yrs ago! When Nutstuff talked about MASLOWS Pyramid of NEEDS! (Something most are only just waking up to now! ) Peter also reminded how despite the fact that Russia totally rewrote their entire policy in 2023 but almost no one in UK Govt (or previous one) ever bothered to read it. We talked about the intellectually suicidal elements of Chinophobia and Russophobia and I was reminded of 45% youth Indian unemployment, heat and water stress in India and the lack of energy & water security in Taiwan. Truly fascinating….


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A Nutstuff Golden rule has always been : “When everyone loves something it must go down and when everyone hates something it may go up “.
Well thats Gold vs Oil ( and arguably Bitcoin alot of Digital assets!)
“ Gold was the asset of fear. Bitcoin and oil are the assets of conviction.”
IMHO, Gold’s done its job for now; it front-ran the liquidity cycle, soaked up geopolitical fear, and became the only thing even the bond mob could agree on. But once every newsletter, asset allocator, pension fund and TikTok macro bro is “diversified into gold,” there’s no one left to buy, its not the queue forming outside Sharps Pixley thats going to make a difference. We all know instances of when Momentum rapidly becomes gravity. You end up owning a lump of reassurance rather than an asymmetry. That’s why the miners might look interesting later, but IMHO not now. When the trade clears out, and the tourists sell to fund margin calls, you want to be ready for the next leg the one driven by actual M2 growth, not emotion. Right now, gold’s absolutely not a contrarian idea. It’s simply a comfort blanket. And comfort blankets rarely make you rich.
I know many talk to me about “tokenising” gold but most have no understanding of what a true tokenisation strategy & model looks like and to me its still an inert rock, just with a QR code.
Ask what Nutstuff is buying with the proceeds … its the “other” asset. Its Oil which I have owned alot of in North Sea and also the one where the 2021 Retail investors havent come back to but I feel ever surer they will.

https://nutstuff.co.uk/disclaimer

Much better!!!
CARDIOL/CRDL: revisiting at $1.00! It now sits in that tiny corner of biotech where funding, validation, and valuation collide. A $90 million company chasing a $30 billion disease, it’s finally moving from survival mode to a conviction story. The fresh $11 million raise announced last friday at $1.00,( insiders included), extends cash through Q3 2027, fully funding the Phase III MAVERIC trial in recurrent pericarditis and the planned FDA NDA submission with another $7.4 million in potential warrant proceeds if the market wakes up. The science has quietly shifted from treating inflammation to reversing heart failure itself: the ARCHER data show regression in left-ventricular mass cardiology’s holy grail, a structural marker that predicts survival. At this point, the company’s $90 million market cap prices it below the cash-adjusted value of peers like Kiniksa, Tenaya, or Cytokinetics, all trading 5–10× higher with less clinical clarity. The irony is brutal: Wall Street still files Cardiol under “weed-adjacent biotechs,” but what’s emerging is a cardiac-inflammation platform with three multi-billion-dollar indications: recurrent pericarditis, myocarditis, and heart failure. The next 12 months will determine whether this remains yet another forgotten micro-cap or becomes the first small-cap in modern history to prove you can remodel a human heart. Nutstuffs bed is made.

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