A reminder…
Nutstuff “Pair” of LONG HOG/ SHORT FWONK:
HOG / Harley-Davidson is the mirror image: unloved, cyclical, cash-generative and priced as if decline is inevitable. HOG trades on roughly 6–7× forward EV/EBITDA with a high-single-digit free-cash-flow yield, despite a balance sheet that has been de-risked, disciplined capital returns, and a brand that remains one of the few genuinely global cultural franchises in consumer discretionary. The bear case, ageing riders, EV confusion, lifestyle dilution is well known and already in the price. What is not priced is operating leverage in a normalising rate environment, the resilience of the core heavyweight segment, and management’s explicit shift from volume to margin, cash flow and buybacks. This is not a growth fantasy; it is really an arithmetic story. Even flat revenues support meaningful equity upside via buybacks and dividends, while any cyclical rebound in discretionary spending or modest success in adjacent segments drops straight to free cash flow. In a market that has spent years overpaying for “scarce” sporting narratives. HOG offers a contrast and something far rarer: real cash-flow, low expectations and a brand that people still actually tattoo on their bodies. That is a better risk-reward than underwriting ever-richer team prices in an increasingly crowded paddock.

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Nutstuff just landed in Africa. A reminder that it is April Fools day today, and as the adage goes “there’s no fool like an Old fool!“ 

I honestly have no edge here on outcomes, maybe Trump IS going to ‘cut and run’ over a Chinese off-bridge as some think. If that happens then no way this gets spun as victory beyond avoiding the prospect of mutually assured destruction. If he does retreat, the China dominance vs US mean-reversion post the 1820-1950 period happens 10yrs earlier than it should! 
I have some sympathy with saying “It’s not over until Chris Wright lands in Tehran!”  
And as for the scurrilous rubbish being peddled, maybe this is 1st April or?! “Trump is being blackmailed by Israel with more revelations to come in the Epstein files. So that means US Marines could be deploying to cover up Trump's crimes? “
Well, Life is a Netflix series!!! 
To the average person THE LAST MONTH looks like: “The strait was open. Trump starts a war. The strait closes. The world economy gets f***. He doesn’t know what he’s doing, he gets bored, he declares victory, and he tells the rest of the world to open the strait, to clean up his mess. Trump is a narcissistic bovine destructive pr***. ( if only the US had an alternative!) 

So lets think PORTFOLIO & MARKETS:
Nutstuff ( out thursday) will go through thoughts on stocks! 
***You have to subscribe for that.   
Again YTD the Portfolio has protected Capital / and is +3% + in last 24 hrs so feels like we have the right “bar-bell” 

What I will say on stocks: 
1. Are there really still 27x “Muppet” Buy ratings on NIKE? ( another long time vocal “avoid” calls.  The call for me is Harley/HOG vs NIKE! 
2. RASBERRY PI in UK 🇬🇧 🚀. I said £1bn at £600m by yr end, prob sooner! 
3. Decent China Date= ⬆️ China Real Estate/ +  China Equities.
4. If any ceasefire follow-through, my +ve airlines work from a few days ago will prove prescient. WIZZ. 
5. UK & NORTH SEA: Focus names: 100% resolute here; 2 names of absolute HUGE focus ( more in Nutstuff) as to Bullsh***ing / lying politicians on the North Sea running out of Oil & Gas it is plain and simple WRONG at conservative recovery rates there are 2 oil fields alone that can yield 800m bbls! 
( data/ thoughts out tomorrow). 
6. MACRO OVERLAY: just added more exposure to the US’s “back yard”. A Chart for your walls tomorrow! 

Nutstuff…

OpenAI; has to be said IMHO.

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Honestly I would avoid it like the plague: OpenAI is a capital furnace priced as a crown jewel hundreds of billions of future depreciation chasing tens of billions of revenue, a narrowing edge as Google closes fast, and a governance structure still held together with philosophical duct tape; this is late-cycle private money pre-selling a trillion-dollar IPO to the public and at the same time everyone is stampeding into the least defensible layer of the stack, because LLMs are already becoming commodities. From where Nutstuff sits and in great conversations with GeorgeO, this means the real money will sit one layer up in applications built on proprietary data, distribution and a workflow lock-in;  honestly let Sam Altman burn the tens of billions training ever-better models, because models are simply the new electricity, abundant, ruinously expensive to build, and worthless on their own while the returns will accrue to whoever owns the factory that is plugged into it.

EASTER IS ABOUT PEACE & RENEWAL, lets hope for both…

A THOUGHT: "It might not be easy to tell the truth, but that's precisely why it's worth doing."
"History is littered with the names of those who spoke up against the official narratives of their time, who were laughed at at least, locked up, tortured, burned at the stake, you name it and then who, long after they were gone they were revealed to have been right all along."

SO TRUE & POIGNANT TODAY: “A real soldier does not fight because he has something that he hates in front of him. He fights because he has something that he loves behind his back.” 
GK Chesterton.

IT SEEMS COMRADE MILIBAND HAS FINALLY CAVED IN ON THE NORTH SEA. 
“ Finally reality bites when platitudes meet physics.”
It seems Ed Miliband IS going to approve first major North Sea gasfield project in decade. (Some caveats below, but if the UK has to ration Avation fuel and diesel a full pivot has to come IMHO)   (thanks WP.) 
Nutstuff has been on this North Sea Energy call for over two years now, it was avery lonely place back then, but we have stuck with a large and diversified portfolio of UK listed and North Sea assets so not just babbling platitudes, but backing the call with £££.
My deeply contrarian call back then was and has been consistent, and simply that economic reality would eventually collide head-on with political ideology in the North Sea, and that there would only ever be one winner! 

***In NUTSTUFF I go through the 6 key stocks we own (alongside a number of others in US drillers & Boats etc) all +>40%-90% YTD, and my clear rationale with valuations for ownership of each. If I had to just own 1 or 2, I make clear which these are too.

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As its a quiet day..

IRAN/ MIDDLE-EAST: CONNECTING DOTS:
So, its seemingly Classic Trump again, the Bovine tweet to “outrage” and shock, every armchair Pundit and General war-gaming impending Armageddon between Easter eggs and guess what, it seems there might just be a real plan for a deal and DE-escalation!
It seems as if Washington might be floating a two-phase arrangement brokered via Pakistani, Egyptian and Turkish channels, with Witkoff and Araghchi reportedly exchanging direct messages.

Phase 1: a 45-day ceasefire with no reopening of Hormuz, no rollback of enrichment, no structural concessions, just a pause.

Phase 2: the supposed “end state”, A full reopening of the strait, sanctions relief, and a nuclear framework with no sunset clause.

In other words, everything that matters is deferred, conditional and reversible. Iran keeps its leverage exactly where it wants it, 400–450kg of 60% enriched uranium, control over the Hormuz chokepoint, and an economy poised for relief while the US gets a headline and a window to regroup. That agreed how convenient Trump’s inevitable tweet, some variant of “we destroyed all we needed to”, the familiar bluster of a man declaring victory over objectives that were never actually achieved, because the reality is this was never about a cinematic extraction or a neat military win; it was about systems, and on that score the outcome is, at best, ambiguous and, at worst, a quiet admission that the old playbook no longer works.
Markets, as ever, seemed to be pricing the wrong war: after shrugging off a month of Hormuz disruption, they would likely panic at the first whiff of a data centre going dark. As Nutstuff has constantly made the point about where all the stock markets index weight sits! Oh the irony of “electrons being worshipped but molecules that make them possible are ignored”. The deeper signal here is credibility: failed expectations, aborted missions, and overpromised outcomes don’t just embarrass leadership, they recalibrate adversaries and accelerate alignment elsewhere. Which is why the real endgame is not uranium but whether Iran is kept economically engaged or pushed decisively into a Sino-Russian system of yuan-settled energy and parallel infrastructure. Get that wrong and you are no longer negotiating within the old order, you are financing the emergence of a new one. Meanwhile Gold margins are exploding, hydrocarbons are tightening, capital is rotating back to molecules and hard assets, and if a portfolio built on rigs, tankers and energy density is up 30%+ YTD, it is not an anomaly but an early read on where the real repricing sits. Owning “Energy and Chips = Victory” the mistake is thinking the market has yet worked out which side of that equation still runs the world so you have to have exposure to both!

NUTSTUFF PORTFOLIO & MARKETS: + 4.5% YTD.
Amazing to think vs massive Mag 7 valuations that the world's 50 biggest mining stocks just hit a combined $2.4 TRILLION in Mkt Cap in Q1 2026. That number is plain and simply wrong by at least 100% IMHO. Now come the earnings!…

On stocks….
Well you’ll have to subscribe here!!!

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NUTSTUFF A FEW THOUGHTS “From the African road”….

PORTFOLIO & MARKETS: +6.3% YTD which right now stacks up pretty well! 
The “Bar-bell” is working. As I see it, Apocalypse hasn’t been cancelled, just pushed out a quarter. To me it seems the Markets aren’t pricing a lasting peace, just pricing a delay. 
I am adding a UK Bank to the Portfolio! (More Monday in Nutstuff.) 
Diversity in exposures with high conviction thematics underlying and still very little Digital asset support too which frustrates, and if that turns any corner that will be a massive +ve kicker. Stocks (top 3 in last mth) like NEBIUS, PANTHEON (UK), CRDL. 
I like the idea of some of these Big “Pairs”: All make sense with some healthy anti-consensus thinking. (Tx Shrub!) 
*** VS TSM
*** VS QQQ
*** VS WMT

2 to Watch: 

For all those banging on about quantum this is near term now!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3DaFcVKzfkJPk

An excellent 10minutes on enriched Uranium: 
https://youtu.be/68lNiatVLfc

Time Travelling is good for Thought: 
“It is always tempting to pin a civilisation’s decline on a single man, to dress the moment in the theatre of personality, and in Donald Trump there is certainly enough spectacle to oblige. But that is far too neat, and far too flattering to the system that produced him. Trump is not the disease; he is the symptom that learned to speak. What we are watching is not the derailment of the West by one figure, but the exposure of a long, comfortable abdication an empire that outsourced seriousness to markets, morality to branding, and judgement to algorithms, only to find those same systems now holding up a mirror it no longer recognises. And beyond that mirror, stretching east of Istanbul across the 7 billion who never signed up to the Western story but were written into its footnotes, something else is stirring: a vast, connected awakening, not ideological but experiential, carried not by manifestos but by smartphones, satellites, and the quiet, relentless arithmetic of comparison. Silicon Valley, in its pursuit of frictionless information, has done something profoundly unfashionable, it has democratised perspective. The village now sees the empire, the worker sees the margin, the periphery sees the centre not as myth but as mechanism. And with that comes a shift not of outrage, but of memory. The colonised no longer need to be told they were exploited; they can measure it, map it, and monetise the grievance. This is not revolution in the romantic sense, but something colder and more enduring: a rebalancing driven by awareness. Trump, then, is merely the loudest note in a much deeper chord, the West talking to itself while the rest of the world, newly literate in power, quietly rewrites the terms. And so we arrive here, blinking in the half-light, speaking again of values as if they were misplaced rather than abandoned, discovering rather late that no amount of power can reassemble a society unwilling to examine itself. The language of atonement sounds unfashionable because it is exacting; it requires not the identification of villains, but the admission of complicity, a far rarer and more uncomfortable skill. Nations, like men, prefer to be humbled by events rather than by reflection, and so they wait, as this one has, to be brought to their knees rather than to choose it. Yet even now there is the faintest and most unfashionable optimism: that this moment, so often described as an ending, may instead prove to be a fever, unpleasant, clarifying, and, if survived, the body’s last honest attempt to remember what health once felt like.”  (Nutstuff).

Bitcoin is bullish: “because it is no longer merely a speculative asset but a fallback financial rail when the dollar system is switched off; the Iranian oil case makes that brutally clear.

If you are cut out of dollars, euros and formal banking, your options collapse fast and gold, for all its historical romance, simply doesn’t function at scale in a live shipping artery like the Strait of Hormuz; you are not settling millions of barrels by shuttling bullion across contested waters. Bitcoin, by contrast, moves instantly, permissionlessly and in size. This isn’t ideology, it’s plumbing. Every sanction, capital control or geopolitical fracture forces actors onto alternative rails, and once that behaviour exists it does not disappear. What begins as workaround liquidity becomes parallel liquidity, and markets consistently underestimate how quickly “last resort” infrastructure becomes “just another way to settle” especially when trust in the incumbent system is being actively weaponised.

LOTFW: 

🇬🇧 I SAID IT MONTHS AGO, the notion of the UK as an AI CENTRE beyond being  A creative lab, was just fanciful political BS. It really IS a peculiar national achievement to have invented the modern industrial world and then volunteer as the case study in how to dismantle it. Ed Miliband speaks of leadership on net zero, but what Britain is actually exporting is a warning label: this is simply what happens when ideological ambition outruns arithmetic. The country that once turned coal, steel and steam into global dominance now turns high energy costs into factory closures and calls it progress. Decarbonisation without competitiveness is emphatically not leadership, it is self-harm with a press release and the rest of the world is watching carefully, learning not to follow, but to absolutely avoid making the same mistakes. 

NATO: “The alliance is not failing because of freeloaders. The alliance is trapped inside a feedback loop where the war meant to demonstrate American resolve is generating the revenue that funds the threat the alliance was built to deter. And the country profiting most from that loop just vetoed the only vote that could have broken it.” Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe

More Trump …. 
Macro: ITALY & BRAZIL. Both have key ETF’s and should be represented in any macro-overlay thematic. (Look at 5-10yr charts here, re-ratings continue.) 
Stocks: ALLB US/ ALLBIRDS: wowww thats a crazy strategic pivot; from shoes to AI, stock explodes 195%!!!
Mag 7: GOOGL resumes its uptrend as AMZN also wakes up. (Nutstuff has. A key “pair” on here …) 
2 key LAGGARDS, interestingly flagged by both those smart technicians at Strategas and also good friend Conor Smith! BLOOM US / Bloom energy & BLUE OWL US. 
Nuclear/Uranium: Thoughts today on Nutstuff with 2x KEY focus ideas. 
TESLA: The Tesla AI5 chip is now finalised for production, this IS big news to those that know. 
2 KEY UK stocks making new highs, 1x DePin tech and another Biotech. 🚀  Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe

We go into a weekend with roaring stock markets, benign bonds (thats the thing to watch!) the reality of a NEW ceasefire in Lebanon and HOPE of one holding in Iran. The Nutstuff Portfolio +11% YTD and +4% this week, so ‘protecting’ in a DOWN market and ‘participating’ in an UP.

On Iran/ Middle East: 
FOX NEWS: “The USS George H. W. Bush strike group had to go around the southern tip of Africa after being overpowered by the Houthis in Yemen. $1.51B loss.”  
So, we can’t get a strike group through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait but Trump thinks he’s going to control the Strait of Hormuz.

POLITICS: The latest UK 🇬🇧 Westminster UK Political shenanigans with his hapless & hopeless and dishonest Government gives Nutstuff hope of a sooner end or possible change. 
Details as am sure you can all read: Downing Street says that neither Keir Starmer nor David Lammy knew that Peter Mandelson failed his security vetting, and lays blame with Foreign Office official for overruling the decision.YET! the Foreign Office was ‘encouraged’ to deploy a rarely-used power to override the recommendation from security officials. Last night Olly Robbins resigns (pushed or jumped?!) as the top civil servant in the Foreign Office.
Nutstuff fully agrees with this: The only question which matters in British politics tonight is this: does Oliver Robbins lose his mobile suddenly or does he have the receipts? If he told a single person in No10/the private office or any minister, Starmer’s position is untenable!  Lets hope “Greater love hath no man than this, that a man lay down his friends for his life”!
This arguably impacts my Energy & North Sea positioning also in my Contrarian exposures Bullish on broader UK opportunities; am adding another NEW position in the UK today. A Company founded pre 1900 with real assets, its tiny but is ludicrously undervalued cash rich and with real catalysts. 

Everything I see is the increasingly logical undermining of Miliband….The Times: New oil and gas drilling in the North Sea is the ‘quickest way’ to boost supplies, Rachel Reeves has said; ministers were working ‘pretty intensely’ to open up ‘tie-back’ arrangements, which allow more fossil fuel extraction next to existing oil field

STOCKS: 
How anyone could have stayed with big positions in Luxury Stocks makes you despair! It seems incredibly logical to see LIV golf as maybe the 1st casualty of Middle Eastern pull-back reality! 
Nutstuff remains constructive and positive on Bitcoin, CRCL US, GRASS US (+64% in 6 weeks) and other related digital and Technology assets; NBIS being one of them. Conviction also remains on key Offshore Services and Seismic names and Uranium. ***Subscribe: https://www.nutstuff.co.uk/pricing-plans/subscribe

“PUFFING WEED & MICRO-DOSING!” 3 KEY STOCKS; charts all scream 🚀

For years not months Nutstuff has talked Cannabis, Nuclear fuel stocks, rare earths and now the latest PORTFOLIO BUY: FERMI/ FRMI US.
…
For Context on Psychedelics and Cannabis…
“In the glittering circus of an indebted, entitled, increasingly materialistic, and morally bankrupt USA, where the masses stay blissfully plugged into their glowing screens, puffing cannabis, and micro-dosing psychedelics like it’s the new national pastime, there’s a deliciously brutal irony at play: President Trump, with his signature blend of chaotic communication and unfiltered bravado, has thrown policy lifelines to both industries. Gosh Nutstuff cannot think why!? 
He signed the marijuana rescheduling executive order back in December 2025 and, just days ago on April 18, 2026, dropped another bombshell accelerating research into psychedelics (psilocybin, ibogaine, etc.) for serious mental illness, complete with FDA priority vouchers, $50 million in funding, and expanded Right to Try access framed around veterans’ PTSD and a mental health crisis, not some nefarious plot to numb the revolting masses into tolerating his “revolting” style, but because pragmatic deregulation apparently beats prohibition in this upside-down morality play.…..”

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Markets are always about “Known unknowns vs Unknown unknowns”. ( the ones that kill you!)! I still don’t think it’s dawned on most investors that Hormuz simply isn’t opening until Iran wants it open. Oil is finally starting to get frisky ⬆️ and I think we’re getting to the point where the market is going to be forced to care that this is about to seriously break stuff. A Simple Reality bites!
I watch Bonds, I never own them! 
Bond yields however have now surged, 10-year gilts topping 5% for the first time since 2008; 30-year Treasury yields hitting 5% for the first time this year; and a Japanese yen >160 to the dollar. All key inflation is imminent alarm bells. 
Again: Wars ( and peace & prosperity) are all now about Maslows Pyramid & “Needs”,
that is both Oil & Semis; and you have to have exposure to both. I however own Oil (Energy weighting) as @ 4:1 ratio to Semis! 
Crude Oil is at $120¥ and of all the Nutstuff Portfolio changes, I am happiest with my December Crude Oil options buy of 10days ago vs worrying about $12 trillion of Mag 7 Mkt cap. This joins big posns in Deepwater & Oil svcs and UK & North sea energy names.  

Now to Mag 7 as everyone is blabbering. 
Herewith the a/hrs 📊 charts. 

“AI speaks like a genius but eats like a ravenous machine”, and this quarter shows exactly what that that diet costs; tens of billions in capex, relentless, unapologetic, and absolutely necessary. The market is still pretending this is a software margin story when in reality it is a utilities build-out! 

To be clear Nutstuff ONLY owns Alphabet ( and Qcom) and my AMAZON “avoid” of the last 4 yrs just came off. 
Nutstuff is a simple soul, so I see things as follows: oh! www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!

Nutstuff out tomorrow/ thursday.

To explain the talk of “Peace ”: Rubio pronounced: “Operation "Epic Fury" has ended”. President Trump announced this to Congress. 
Now we're apparently at the "Project Freedom" stage, and negotiations on the nuclear issue.
So to Explain: By declaring the end of Operation "Epic Fury," the Trump administration avoided the need to obtain Congressional approval for a military operation lasting more than 60 days. If necessary, a new operation will be launched, or any further military action will be part of the "Project Freedom", whose stated goal is to "defensively" release the ship bottleneck in Hormuz that never existed before Trump spent $100bn?!

Anyway: Whats very clear was HF’s were massively UW US stocks. For weeks markets have been childishly simple: stay long, let the underweight cohort choke on their own caution, and allow the mechanical bid to do what it always does when positioning is wrong, force prices higher until disbelief turns into panic buying. It has worked. Handsomely. But markets rarely reward those who linger at the scene of the crime…
Lets see how the CTA bid now looks…

Now lets think about a WHAT IF ITS PEACE psychology.? Do we actually sell the $ and the peace!? Most perverse might be a Market that can be so ironic it may now even buy not sell defence stocks!? 

Nutstuff has added to Digital Assets MSTR US & STRC, and is also adding to Wifi DABBA DBT (token) the Indian Helium/ HNT. ( see Nutstuff tomorrow). 

Lets think ENERGY: Near term: The +40%+ ytd will be -10-15% quickly. 
INVERSELY: on the other side: Buy Airlines:
UAL US!  Should track WIZZ EASYJET etc / Eu Industrials; FRESNILLO BASF & MITTAL
Also Watch Chinese Stocks; I add to KWEB US ETF or BABA TENCENT & BIDU as the “Key 3!” 
XSG LN / XEROS: again solid move on full guidance, back to Oct 25 levels! 
Caveat here is: to all those unloading Energy and commodities here; all these bottle necks dont just get sorted anytime.

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Nutstuff is publishing again tomorrow…
A reminder that this Telegram is “Free” and is simply designed to supplement being a Nutstuff subscriber. I publish Nutstuff 2-3x / week so this fills the gaps! I will on occasions flag actual stocks HERE going forward but this is really designed to alert you and remind you to key thematics that matter in wider sense or are connected to Ideas that generate Alpha. (Stocks that make us money! ) www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!

PORTFOLIO & MARKETS: +14% YTD is a good result and we are not stuffed full of roaring semiconductors! 
I am much more interested in waiting for my Digital asset exposures to pick up! My Uranium Fuel plays I will mention: Great news and reactions on both ASPI yesterday and LIGHTBRIDGE/LTBR US today. In COMMODITIES: POWER NICKEL/ PNPN CN. 
Now its ironic that for all the UK misery out there, am happy to flag huge sources of alpha in last 12+mths and YTD: TUNGSTEN WEST / RASPBERRY PI / SCANCELL. 
UK “Spec sits”: UK FARMING STOCKS (with assets not just in UK! ) & FOOD: I would still own CAMELLIA / CML LN, AEP LN (see today and that a chart!!!) also added some REA LN alongside recently. 

TRUMP on his way to China: I can see deals fr many but on Peace there is “only one person who can/will open Hormuz”….
this made me 😹 https://x.com/cryptoxiaoxiang/status/2054344180198146469?s=61

UK: 🇬🇧: Tomorrow Bill Gross on the UK and my missive: “Britain Now Feels Like A Wetherspoons Carpet”.   By Will Nutting. “Britain currently feels like a Wetherspoons carpet after closing time. Sticky. Fraying at the edges. Covered in mysterious stains nobody wants properly explained. Somewhere in the distance a fruit machine flashes beside a broken cubicle door while two exhausted policemen”…… 1200 words! 

ENERGY stocks : I have much greater exposure here than I do to AI in Portfolio weight to be clear… here’s why! 

TELECOM PLUS/ TEP LN: sorry, this has been a shocker! I have had a good chat with management. Understandably the dividend cut p*issed off a lot and I now see the Deutsche banks downgrade was dubiously motivated!  More tomorrow. 

BITCOIN & DIGITAL ASSETS: ‘Futility to Humility to Utility to Ubiquity”. “If there was ever a time Bitcoin was designed for, it is now”. The Clarity Act should be imminent: https://www.banking.senate.gov/newsroom/majority/chairman-scott-senators-lummis-tillis-release-market-structure-bill-text-ahead-of-banking-committee-markup Trump just told you what to do! 
Nutstuff added STRC last week and am watching MSTR as is now back to a premium. I will discuss tomorrow the single most interesting Idea in Digital assets land which is finally going to work. 

INFLATION outpacing wages is a reality, and Inflation is not just Oil. I look at all constituents of all 4 CPI measures! 
ENERGY: I have much greater exposure here than I do to AI in Portfolio weight to be clear…
I agree with a number of people much smarter in the Energy and Bottle-necked commodities space that long-term energy investors should ignore short-term volatility and let “them" (the bears) bank their victories on minor pullbacks, as what I see as the fundamental supply/demand gap will eventually trigger a massive upward rerating of energy equities. To put it succinctly: ”the global economy is entering a period of "forced rebalancing” and the physical market is now in a state of terminal deficit that only triple-digit oil prices can solve.”  Focus = The Nutstuff Portfolio Energy Basket. 

The Nutstuff Portfolio is +12% YTD. Interestingly our ‘bar-bell’ is working well so far during the recent so-called “painful rotation” we read and hear so much babble about! Yes, I see the degree to which Retail investors are ‘all-in’ here and a huge amount of AI & tech FOMO, afraid am happy to take a lot of the other side of that. Out tomorrow on Nutstuff, I have written an update to my “AI thoughts from the hip”. Rest assured we ARE however being dynamic here, and I have added to a Nat Gas name and a Software co. (Not MSFT!) as the 2 latest Portfolio changes. (Again details tomorrow.) Interestingly we have 11 positions +5% to +36% in the last week alone and tomorrow I will have a detailed “Connect the dots” on the Nutstuff Portfolio YTD, I will go through themes & conviction as increasingly resembles exactly what we expected at the start of the year: the physical world beginning to reassert itself over the financial abstractions layered on top of it. Ex GS Jeff Currie, puts the argument for owning pounds in the ground rather than operating assets rather eloquently "Almost all commodities are nothing other than dirt and diesel. So, if you're out of diesel you've got a problem with everything". If no change in Hormuz soon then reality will bite in the next few weeks. Finally on Bonds where there is endless babble too. Nutstuff as a “Never Bonds” investor has written continually about “The Quickening’ as a glorious impending “coliseum bloodbath” when it comes, this happens because simply WTF would anyone lend money to any western govt for <10%?!! 10% real rates Indebted western economies REALLY dont work! Put simply Bond markets are finally violently reminded investors that capital still has a cost and that duration is not a law of nature but a function of liquidity. *Finally, the Lunacy of UK Energy policy is now being seen for all its double standards and illogicality. A Government in secret loosening Russian Oil sanctions is the stuff of madness. As I wrote to some friends: I think the modern British disease is that the moment you point out an obvious contradiction in energy policy you are immediately accused of being “pro-Putin”, as though acknowledging where diesel physically comes from is now tantamount to waving a hammer and sickle outside the Kremlin. Honestly the point here is not that Russia good or sanctions bad. The point is that Britain increasingly behaves like an upper-middle-class vegetarian secretly eating kebabs in the minicab home whilst loudly lecturing everyone else about animal cruelty. It is f* lunacy. We ban drilling in the North Sea, import the exact same molecules via India or Turkey at greater cost and emissions, then congratulate ourselves on our moral rectitude and courage. I say a simple foff. It is not strategy. This is national moral BS & self-delusion wrapped in a Just Stop Oil bag. www.nutstuff.co.uk SUBSCRIBE if you dont already!

Nutstuff was published yesterday.

3 Things Today:

1. From meetings this week I now more than ever see tokenisation of tangible assets is where new railroads of blockchain meets finance will go, and then I think we will all see and discover the true “value” of AI!”

2. Today a New Mega-Cap added: “sometimes markets become so obsessed with Ferraris that they forget aircraft carriers exist.”

3. FAT JABS!
Renewed Focus on ELI LILLY/ LLY US ….( we did own NOVO NORDISK too but exited a yr ago)
The new LLY GLP drug currently in Phase 3 data is just extraordinary…( a Weekend focus piece on Nutstuff coming) …”
Thematically, the valuation gap between AI and healthcare increasingly looks completely deranged when viewed through the lens of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs.”
Nutstuff can see LLY as a $2 trillion + co.

***Nutstuff also agrees with this: The next GLP-1 problem won’t be efficacy it will be the massive scale. These drugs are moving from metabolic medicine into mass consumer behaviour at a speed the long-term data probably has no way absorbed. In five years the issue may not be “do they reduce weight? Is it fat or muscle?” Then, who should be on them, for how long, what happens when they stop, what happens to muscle mass/nutrition/mental health, and whether we’ve simply just medicalised a broken food system rather than fixing it.( tx G.O.)

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