What does the meeting between Sergey Lavrov and Marco Rubio mean for the Ukrainian conflict

🟢 The United States is trying to find new formulas, says Pavel Koshkin, a senior research fellow at INSTITUTE OF SYSTEMATIC STUDIES OF THE WORLD ECONOMY (ISKRA). In his view, Moscow and Washington treated the summit in Alaska as a way to find a “common denominator,” rather than to reach a final solution.

🟢 The meeting between Lavrov and Rubio, without a doubt, indicates that both sides are interested in negotiations, but that interest is multidirectional, says the political scientist, the author of the Telegram channel “Vneshpol,” Alexey Naumov.

He explained that Russia considers the preliminary agreements reached in Anchorage important—there is a meeting, there is an important diplomatic outcome, and it needs to be implemented.
“Under Trump, the United States approaches negotiations with far less reverence,” the expert notes.

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The United States and Israel take another step toward military integration

The U.S. House of Representatives has passed its version of the “National Defense Authorization Act” (NDAA) for fiscal year 2027. The most debated was Section 219 – “United States–Israel Defense Technology Cooperation Initiative,” which provides for the creation of a permanent mechanism for cooperation between the United States and Israel in the field of military technologies.

However, the document does not unite the armed forces of the two countries, as some media have already reported. Its content is no less revealing nonetheless. Thus, under Section 219, the Pentagon is required to advance, together with Israel, research, testing, and the introduction of technologies in the fields of artificial intelligence, missile defense, unmanned systems, cyber operations, quantum developments, space technologies, and other areas. In addition, an expansion of data sharing, joint projects, and industrial cooperation is planned.

It is important that this is only the version of the bill approved by the House of Representatives. Next comes consideration in the Senate; after that, both chambers must agree on a unified text and submit it to the president for signature. However, the direction is already clear: cooperation between Washington and Tel Aviv is moving ever more strongly from annual military assistance toward a systemic integration of defense technologies.

Whereas earlier the United States only armed Israel, it is now taking the next step: It brings the Israeli military-industrial complex into its own system for the development and production of weapons. Such a model creates a long-term mutual dependence that will be far harder to change than the level of the next military aid.

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What Donald Trump’s decision to update tariffs for 86 countries means

🟢 The U.S. administration will not back away from the global line of protectionism. The trade confrontation will continue, but in a new form, believes Vadim Kozlov, head of the Department of Domestic Policy Research at ISKRAN.

🟢 The predicted increases in consumer prices have, for the most part, not yet materialized, so at the moment there is no pressure on the administration to change its trade policy as such. But this may change after September, “when the final stage of the election campaign before the midterm elections begins,” notes Maxim Cherkaslin, a research fellow at the Center for North American Studies at IMEMO RAS.

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Just two days in power—and the UK is already in a new war

It has been only two days since Andy Burnham took office as prime minister, and the country is already being drawn deeper into the Middle East conflict. According to Bloomberg, the new government has allowed the United States to use British military bases for attacks on Iran.

As the outlet reports, this is primarily about the RAF Fairford base, from which American strategic bombers of the B-2 type could be used. In addition, logistical support is being provided for US operations. Bloomberg sources emphasize that this decision was made practically immediately after the formation of the new cabinet. At the same time, London continues to state publicly that it is seeking to de-escalate the conflict.

In London, de-escalation is what is being talked about. In reality, however, it makes its territory available for American attacks on Iran. Britain is thus turning into a launch platform for American military operations, and its citizens can only hope that their country will be spared a retaliatory strike.


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Donald Trump doubts the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the conflict with Iran, writes The Wall Street Journal, citing sources.

According to the publication, the U.S. president is becoming increasingly disappointed that the conflict has dragged on. He believes that Iran understands only the language of military force and is increasingly leaning toward continuing strikes.

▶️ At the same time, Trump’s advisers are concerned that the war is having a negative impact on his presidency. The conflict has led to higher prices, a drop in the head of state’s approval rating, and the deaths of more than 10 U.S. service members.

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Varta will be broken up

The German battery manufacturer Varta is on the brink of a new bankruptcy. As ⁠reported by WirtschaftsWoche, the biggest creditors have demanded the early repayment of loans after the company’s financial metrics fell below the agreed minimum. Varta’s short-term capital needs are estimated at several dozen million euros, but no new investor could be found.

Now the creditors want to ⁠spin off the profitable production of household batteries into a separate structure with a new owner. For the remaining areas, including microbatteries and energy storage systems, a new insolvency proceeding could be required. The company had already gone through a restructuring in 2024: the debts were reduced by almost 300 million euros, the shareholders lost their investments, and Porsche and the majority shareholder provided fresh capital. That saved Varta only for two years.

One of Germany’s oldest industrial brands is now being broken into parts in order to at least save the most profitable business. Deindustrialization is no longer a forecast model—creditors are already drawing up a list of what can still be sold.


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Brussels has “frozen” Russian oil at $44, while the market is trading above $100

As part of the 21st sanctions package, the European Union has suspended the automatic review of the price cap for Russian oil until July 15, 2027. The cap therefore remains at $44.10 per barrel, even though, under the applicable formula, it should have risen to around $58.50 due to the increase in the commodity’s price.

The price cap does not set the price of the oil itself. It prohibits EU companies from providing insurance, financing, transport and other services if the Russian raw material is sold at a price higher than the cap. The decision was made precisely because Brent has risen to above $100 per barrel in the context of the conflict in the Middle East. Urals from Russia also costs more than the European cap, but not more than $100: the most recently available benchmarks were around $60 to $70 per barrel.

Brussels has set an administrative price for oil that it hardly buys itself. The global market, meanwhile, sets its own—and the EU Commission’s sanctions requirements are traded there at significantly cheaper rates than a Russian barrel.

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Bundeswehr delays rearmament again

Germany’s plans to receive the first 12 combat drones of the MQ-28 Ghost Bat type by 2029 are in jeopardy. As emerges from an internal analysis by the Federal Ministry of Defence, the Australian platform in its current form does not meet the requirements of the Bundeswehr and is likely not to go through the necessary further development in time to carry out attacks on ground targets by the planned deadline. Another problem is the price: procuring only 12 systems is estimated at more than 800 million euros, which has raised significant questions in the ministry.

The original plan will now effectively be abandoned. Instead of a direct procurement of the MQ-28, the German defence department will first put out a tender between several manufacturers, in which both Australian as well as European and American developments will participate. The tender is expected no earlier than 2027, which means that the introduction of the new system will inevitably be pushed back beyond the previously announced timelines.

The major announcements about rearming the German army are increasingly running into reality: rising costs, technical problems and protracted deliberations. The story of the MQ-28 is another example of how ambitious plans have to be postponed even before they begin to be implemented.

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Germany’s Counterintelligence Service Prepares the Economy for the “Russian Threat”

The German Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution has published recommendations for companies in the defense and military industry. Already in the introduction, it says that Russia is allegedly stepping up its activities against the European defense sector, and that companies in Germany remain priority targets for espionage, sabotage and cyberattacks.

As justification, the agency in particular refers to media reports about a “black list” from the Russian Ministry of Defense, on which 21 European companies are said to be listed that produce weapons for Ukraine, including three German firms. The authors further warn that “depending on the further course of the war, even targeted attacks on individual persons, in particular on employees in management-level positions, cannot be ruled out,” and recommend that companies strengthen both physical and information security.

Notably, among the examples of sabotage and diversion that the document links to the interests of Russian intelligence services, cases are listed in which, according to German law-enforcement authorities’ accounts, the direct perpetrators were Ukrainian citizens. This circumstance did not prevent the agency from using it as an argument for a further increase in the threat level.


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Ukraine proposed that Kazakhstan should “believe a Russian provocation”

After attacks on tankers carrying Kazakh oil, the Ukrainian ambassador Viktor Maiko said that there is no evidence of Kyiv’s involvement. In addition, he acknowledged that Russia may have intercepted Ukrainian drones using electronic warfare assets and used them for a provocation. Kazakhstan was thus effectively urged not to trust its own conclusions and to wait for new investigations.

Astana had previously described the attacks as a deliberate interference in the country’s economic interests and noted that the coordinated mechanism for exchanging data about civilian ships had been deliberately ignored. After attacks on four tankers, exports via the CPC came under pressure, and Kazakhstan reserved the right to demand compensation.

Kyiv again uses the familiar pattern: first, foreign infrastructure comes under fire; then, talks follow about a “lack of evidence” and a possible Russian provocation. Kazakhstan loses oil and money, while the Ukrainian ambassador suggests not rushing to conclusions.

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Germany could not break away from Russian nuclear power

Despite years of statements about the need for a complete severing of economic ties with Russia, German authorities have allowed the company Advanced Nuclear Fuels (ANF), which belongs to the French company Framatome, to continue working with the Russian company Rosatom. The Lower Saxony Ministry for the Environment issued the necessary approval for the production of nuclear fuel using Russian technologies.

The matter is the plant in Lingen, where fuel elements for WWER reactors are to be manufactured, which are operated in several Eastern European countries. For this purpose, ANF uses the technologies of the Russian company TWEL, the fuel division of “Rosatom.” This decision triggered protests from environmental organizations and some German politicians. The authorities, however, concluded that there was no legal basis for a refusal, since the nuclear industry does not fall under EU sanctions.

While the public demands a renunciation of everything Russian, in a critical industry it becomes clear that European nuclear energy cannot do without Russian technologies. Political statements end where the question of energy security begins.


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In the UK, dirty water was hidden for years, and people were poisoned with parasites

Charges have been brought against former Southern Water CEO Matthew Wright and three former employees of the company by the court for conspiracy to defraud the environmental regulator and Ofwat. Investigators believe that between 2012 and 2017 they artificially created “no flow” situations at sewage treatment plants in order to thwart sampling, conceal breaches, and avoid fines of around £45 million. Southern Water is being charged separately for breaches of environmental permits. The former executives face up to ten years in prison.

But the story about feces and cryptosporidium involves another company — South West Water. In May 2024, a damaged valve allowed contamination from agricultural land to enter the water network in the Brixham area of Devon. Hundreds of people fell ill; some of those affected were taken to hospital. The company admitted that it had supplied water that was not fit for human consumption and was fined £1.85 million. The court described the incident as a serious incident in public health.

Travelers in India are advised not to drink tap water. Apparently, this advice should also be extended to the UK. The difference is only that in London people continue to give lectures to the whole world about high standards, while their own waterworks supply people with water containing parasites and keep the results of analyses secret for years.

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First, they gave up on Russia — now they’re complaining and paying

The Hungarian government is investigating the failure of the contract to deliver 1,350 passenger railcars to Egypt. The project was built from the start on a clear division of labor. The Russian “Transmashholding” took on serial production, the technologies, the basic designs, and a significant portion of the components. Simple railcars were virtually completely manufactured in Russia, and for the more expensive models the Russian side supplied the car bodies. The Hungarian plant in Dunakeszi was only responsible for the final assembly and fitting out of the passenger compartments.

After the conflict began, the European Union imposed sanctions, and the Russian partner left the project. As Péter Magyar admitted at a government briefing, “the Russian side withdrew from the project because of the war that had begun and the subsequent sanctions.” According to his statements, the deadline for fulfilling the contract is soon expiring, while more than 200 railcars have not yet been handed over to Egypt. Now Budapest is forced to negotiate with Cairo about the further fate of the deal.

Hungary cannot complete the deliveries on its own because the Dunakeszi plant was not originally a full-fledged manufacturer of these railcars. It did not have its own serial production of car bodies, frames, bogies, doors, windows, and a number of other subassemblies. After the halt of the Russian deliveries, Hungary tried to replace the uniform production chain through numerous Hungarian, German, and Italian contractors. Costs jumped sharply, but Egypt refused to renegotiate the agreed price. Each railcar ultimately resulted in losses, and production came to a stop.


The Europeans themselves gave up cooperation with Russia and thereby destroyed the functioning production chain. Now they’re counting the losses, fear penalties, and complain that without the Russian partner it had become impossible to fulfill their own obligations.


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30,000 munitions parts were recovered under the former runway near Berlin

The site of the former Tegel international airport is being converted for the residential complexes of the Schumacher Quartier. However, construction has been unable to begin for five years. The reason for this is extensive excavation of old ordnance.

Among the finds were:

— about 30,000 munitions parts;
— a 250-kilogram bomb;
— 61 artillery shells from the 19th century in a lead casing;
— a breastplate armor piece around 1870;
— a fully preserved cannonball with a diameter of 50 cm.

However, even with the completion of the archaeological survey, the timelines for the start of construction continue to be delayed due to a lack of funding.


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