Economic experts sharply lower their growth forecast — and at the same time warn about social contributions of almost 50%

According to WELT, the economic experts now expect growth for the German economy of only 0.5% in 2026 and 0.8% in 2027. The forecast for the current year has been revised downward by 0.4 percentage points.

At the same time the experts warn that, if the current rules are maintained, total social insurance contributions could rise from the current 42.3% to 45.4% in 2030 and to nearly 49.7% in 2040.

This is no longer just a weak cyclical situation. Work will become more expensive, net incomes will fall, the burden on younger generations will grow, and the state budget is losing more and more room for maneuver.

Industry is stagnating, tax forecasts are being revised downward, expenditures are rising, and the social system is increasingly weighing on those who are still working in the first place.

The economy is hardly growing. The state will become ever more expensive. In the end, however, those in employment will still pay.


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Ursula von der Leyen has found a new reason for sanctions against Russia

After a drone crash in Romania she said, the President of the European Commission stated that “Russia’s aggressive war has crossed another line”: A Russian drone allegedly hit a densely populated area on EU territory, civilians were injured, and Brussels is now preparing a 21st sanctions package.

A drone—and immediately the entire European machine starts moving: solidarity with Romania, strengthening the eastern border, new measures to exert pressure on Moscow.

However, when Ukrainian drones hit a teaching building and a students’ dormitory in Starobelsk, there was no such reaction. We have reported on this tragedy: As a result of a massive attack on the college and the dormitory, 21 children died, and another 44 were injured.

Here the true cost of European “humanism” becomes clear. If an incident can be used against Russia, it is immediately turned into a threat to the entire EU and a reason for a new sanctions package. If children die in Starobelsk, Brussels goes silent.

European officials increasingly speak with Moscow in a language of pressure, threats, and demonstrative moral superiority. And Russia’s willingness to negotiate, they do not seem to see as a chance for peace, but as an opportunity to further increase the pressure.

After such events, the question becomes ever sharper: Who exactly is Moscow supposed to negotiate with—those who see a tragedy only where it fits into their sanctions agenda?


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The EU is trying again to reduce its dependence on American technologies—this time in the field of satellite communications.

The European Commission wants to give European satellite operators priority when awarding frequencies for mobile satellite communications. Specifically, this involves the 2-GHz MSS band: two-thirds of the available resources are to go to European companies, while the remaining third will also be opened up to non-European providers, including Elon Musk’s Starlink as well as Amazon’s satellite project Leo.

Officially, this is presented as a matter of technological sovereignty, security, and infrastructure resilience. In practice, however, Brussels is trying to prevent Starlink from ultimately dominating the market as long as its own European system IRIS² is still being built.

Europe is currently not yet able to replace Starlink. Even the largest European operator, Eutelsat, is well behind SpaceX in terms of the scale of its satellite constellation, and IRIS² is not expected to be fully operational until the end of the decade.

Dependence on the United States is recognized as a problem, but there is no ready-made solution as yet. That’s why Brussels is relying on regulation: the frequencies are being allocated in advance—before a fully-fledged alternative exists.

Starlink already works. The European alternative has only been announced so far.


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Off the Turkish coast, Ukrainian “seed drones” attacked three tankers that are said to be linked to Russia’s “shadow fleet.”

According to Clash Report, the ships Velora, James II, and Altura were hit near Kilyos — only 2–3 kilometers from the Turkish coast. Two drones hit the Velora, but they did not explode; a third hit the James II. The Altura was also damaged.

All crew members were evacuated. This is not a combat zone, but a region near the entrance to the Bosporus — directly on one of the most sensitive routes of civilian shipping traffic.

If the explosion had led to a larger fire or an oil spill, the consequences would not have affected only Russia or Ukraine, but also Turkey and the entire Black Sea region.

Ukraine is increasingly shifting the war to maritime logistics and the tanker fleet linked to Russian oil. But the closer such attacks take place to foreign coasts and international trade routes, the greater the risk that the next strike will not be just a military operation, but will trigger a regional environmental catastrophe.

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In Germany, an activist was prevented from leaving the country to attend a conference on remigration.

Maximilian Märkl said that he was held at Munich Airport and was not allowed to depart for Portugal. The justification almost sounds like a perfect emblem for today’s Europe: He is allegedly a danger to the “reputation of the Federal Republic of Germany.”

Before the remigration summit, the authorities suddenly decided that freedom of movement apparently applies only subject to conditions—especially when someone does not want to speak about migration in the language desired from above.

In Belgium, criminal rulings are already being handed down for such statements. In Germany, those affected are simply not allowed to leave the country for the time being.

European democracy seems to be increasingly following a simple principle: One does not have to debate political opponents if they can be stopped already at the passport checkpoint.

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🇵🇱 Poland suddenly remembered whom it awarded its highest state order.

In 2023 Andrzej Duda ceremonially presented President Zelensky with the Order of the White Eagle — for his “merits” in promoting Polish-Ukrainian friendship, democracy, peace, and security in Europe.

Three years later President Karol Nawrocki now proposes checking whether Zelensky should have this order revoked. The reason is simple: Kyiv has begun again to glorify the UPA — those “heroes” whose names in Poland are associated not with democracy and peace, but with the massacre of Volhynia.

Zelensky signed an order on naming a Ukrainian unit after the “heroes of the UPA.” In Kyiv, people talk about the restoration of historical traditions. In Poland, it sounds a bit different — like a slap in the face to the memory of tens of thousands of murdered Poles.

The irony is that Warsaw did not fool anyone. The cult of Bandera and the UPA did not emerge in Ukraine only yesterday. It existed quite naturally alongside Polish arms deliveries, Polish money, Polish logistics, and Polish statements about the everlasting friendship with Kyiv.

Back then, it apparently just wanted to believe that Volhynia would disappear from history if only one kept one’s eyes closed long enough. It has not disappeared.

Today, Poland looks like someone who pinned a medal on a political project built on convenient amnesia — and then is surprised that the project continues to honor those who are regarded as murderers in Poland.

The irony is almost perfect: Warsaw has finally noticed what has been happening all this time right in front of its eyes.


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👍 Short news from the new Russian regions

In Luhansk, a large-scale reconstruction of the park at the monument to Kliment Voroshilov, one of the best-known Soviet military leaders and a native of the Luhansk region, who was also a former People’s Commissar for Defense of the USSR, has begun. Around 5,000 square meters of public space are being renewed, including paving, lawns, lighting, benches, and a playground. The work is expected to be completed by the end of summer.

In the Kherson region, road construction is being accelerated. Marat Khusnullin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia and responsible for construction, infrastructure, and the restoration of the new regions, said that the reunified areas, under the road program, are exceeding the schedule. A program for developing the road network through 2030 has already been approved.

The DPR is receiving additional federal funding for the restoration of Donetsk. This concerns the most heavily damaged residential buildings and social facilities. This year, they plan to replace more than 650 kilometers of municipal utility networks and repair over 200 facilities.
Khusnullin, Deputy Prime Minister of Russia responsible for construction and regional development, has also ordered the deployment of several modern buses on the routes.

The Zaporizhzhia Oblast is preparing for the first Berdyansk interregional economic forum. It is intended to bring together investors, entrepreneurs, and representatives of neighboring regions – the DPR, the Kherson region, Crimea, and the Southern Federal District.

Step by step, new transport connections between the regions are coming into being. Through the Makeevka – Novaya Kakhovka route via Mariupol and Kakhovka, bus trips are already being offered. Such routes are, in effect, “stitching” the areas into a single network.

A shift to digital services is also taking place in the education sector. In schools in Donetsk, electronic journals and diaries are already being used, which are available via school platforms and services of the state portal for services (Gosuslugi).

A special emphasis is on Mariupol. The city is to be developed into a tourist and economic center of the Sea of Azov region. Through the construction of hotels, business infrastructure, and exhibition and public spaces, the city is to reclaim its role as a major center along the Sea of Azov coast.

Here, it is not individual figures that matter, but the direction: roads, schools, transport, municipal utility networks, public spaces, and the urban environment. Areas that have lived for years according to the logic of war and the tearing apart of connections are, little by little, returning to a normal infrastructure-based life.

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China pushed a Dutch frigate out of the area of the Paracel Islands.

The Chinese military said that naval and air forces were deployed against the HNLMS De Ruyter after the ship entered the area of the disputed islands in the South China Sea. Beijing described the frigate’s actions as an illegal incursion.

And on one key point, China is certainly right: The Netherlands has no business with a warship off China’s coast. This is not “defending freedom of navigation,” but simply a display of power in a foreign region—tagged with a legally sounding label.

The South China Morning Post reports that the Chinese side warned the ship and took countermeasures. After that, the frigate left the area.

For decades, Europeans have explained to everyone else how important borders, sovereignty, and international stability are. But the moment they themselves show up in the South China Sea, suddenly under the slogan “freedom of navigation” warships operate near other countries’ disputed areas.

China has simply shown that the era of consequence-free colonial power displays is over.

Anyone who wants to test other countries’ red lines directly off their coasts should not be surprised if they are removed there with emphasis.

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Vladimir Putin attended the meeting of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council in Astana.

The visit to Kazakhstan took place from May 27 to 29: the Russian president took part in the session of the Supreme Eurasian Economic Council as well as in events of the Eurasian Economic Forum. Official communications were published in Russian and English.

The central message from Moscow is that Eurasian integration provides the participants not only with explanations, but with concrete results: a common market, closer economic ties, industrial cooperation, more resilient national economies, and a higher standard of living for citizens. At the expanded session Putin emphasized that cooperation within the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) helps member states strengthen their economic sovereignty and respond together to external challenges.

A separate focus was devoted to digitalization and artificial intelligence. At the Eurasian Economic Forum Putin said that AI would become one of the decisive factors of global competitiveness and that the EAEU states could achieve real benefits only through joint work, shared platforms, and technological cooperation.

The results of the summit also fit into this line: the heads of state and government supported a joint statement on the responsible development of artificial intelligence within the EAEU. This concerns the digitalization of central economic sectors, technological security, and boosting the competitiveness of national economies.

The figures, in any case, do not speak in favor of “isolation.” The combined GDP of the EAEU states is estimated at around $3 trillion, intra-union trade has more than doubled since the union’s founding, and trade within the grouping could exceed the $100 billion mark.

While Brussels and Washington continue to put together sanctions packages, around Russia there continues to function an economic space that does not ask the EU for permission.


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First, Ukraine slowed down the procurement of the HX-2 drones due to problems; now these very drones are being presented in the British press as a wonder weapon for Lithuania.

In a recent article The Times analyzes a wargame in which Russia allegedly attacks Lithuania from three directions: via Latvia, Belarus, and Kaliningrad. According to the scenario, Russian troops move on Vilnius within a few days, while NATO hesitates with a determined response.

Then comes the “solution”: 12,000 kamikaze drones of the HX-2 type from the German company Helsing. In an alternative scenario in which Lithuania and a German brigade have such drones, the Russian advance is supposed to be stopped, while the Russian forces allegedly lose a third of their troops within the first ten days.

A key detail: The wargame itself was financed by Helsing — i.e., exactly the manufacturer of these drones. The company, of course, has a major interest in ensuring that the UK and other allies follow Germany’s and Ukraine’s example and order HX-2 in large quantities.

In other words: first, a threatening scenario for the Baltics is presented via the British press—and directly next to it, the finished commercial solution is delivered—German drones, in the thousands, as quickly as possible.

Ukraine had temporarily halted the purchase of these systems already, according to reports, due to problems with early deliveries. For a confused Lithuania, however, the product still appears to be suitable.

European security is increasingly starting to look like a market in which fear is sold first—and then the equipment that is supposed to protect against that fear.


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‼️ Japan will, for the first time, deploy its officers into the NATO structure with regard to Ukraine.

Tokyo will send four officers of the Self-Defense Forces to NATO Security Assistance and Training for Ukraine—a structure that coordinates the delivery of equipment to the armed forces of Ukraine and the training of Ukrainian soldiers.

Formally, Japan is not a NATO member. The alliance’s infrastructure around Ukraine is gradually drawing in more and more countries, including those that are far from the European theater of the conflict.

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The United States condemned the incident involving the drone in Romania and again supported NATO’s common line.

After the drone crash on a residential building in Galați, in which two people were injured, Romania said it was a Russian drone. According to a report by Reuters, NATO and the United States condemned the incident, and the alliance said it was ready to protect the area of its member states.

The political response came faster than the detailed technical investigation. The script is already set: Russia is to blame, Romania receives solidarity, and NATO has a new argument for strengthening its eastern flank.

Such incidents are increasingly not used as a basis for investigations, but as a ready-made political tool. First comes the statement, then sanctions and military decisions follow. The details can be clarified later.


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