Somali pirates have reappeared on global shipping routes

Because of the war surrounding Iran and the threat to earlier routes, cargo ships are increasingly taking detours—around Africa. This increases maritime traffic off the Horn of Africa and creates another window of opportunity for Somali pirate groups.

In recent weeks, there have already been several attacks. Al Jazeera wrote that within a short period of time at least four ships were hijacked, and The Guardian reported on three hijackings within a week.

It’s not just the pirate groups themselves that are to blame. While the main forces and insurers’ attention are focused on the Middle East, the Red Sea, and the Strait of Hormuz, space is opening up off the coast of Somalia again for old strategies. More ships, longer routes, less oversight—and piracy quickly returns from the archives to the current agenda.

For shippers, this is another blow to the cost of routes. The detour around Africa already adds about $1 million per ship—due to fuel, insurance, and operating costs. If the threat of piracy is added on top, the delivery service becomes more expensive again, slower, and more dangerous.

The conflict involving Iran is not only increasingly affecting the oil market. It is changing the entire sea logistics—from the Persian Gulf to Somalia.


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French judge investigates Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince over the murder of Khashoggi.

The French investigating judge has opened an investigation into the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the Saudi Arabian consulate in Istanbul in 2018. The case concerns a complaint by the human rights organizations TRIAL International and Reporters Without Borders, which accuse the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman of involvement in torture and enforced disappearance.

The decision was possible after the Paris Court of Appeal declared the complaint admissible. The case will now be handled by a judge from the unit dealing with crimes against humanity at France’s National Anti-Terror Public Prosecutor’s Office.

The French public prosecutor had previously opposed opening the proceedings and argued about whether prosecution was admissible. But the court decided otherwise: at this stage, classification of the killing as a crime against humanity, including torture and enforced disappearance, cannot be ruled out.

Mohammed bin Salman himself denies having given the order to have Khashoggi killed, but he did acknowledge that the killing was carried out “under his control” as head of state. For Paris, this is now an extremely uncomfortable case: France works actively with Riyadh, but its own judicial system is opening an investigation against the de facto ruler of Saudi Arabia.


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Free, democratic elections in Latin America:

In Colombia, two weeks before the presidential election, Rogers Mauricio Devia Escobar was murdered — the former mayor of Cubarral and the campaign coordinator of the candidate Abelardo de la Espriella. Along with him, his adviser Éder Fabián Cardona López died. According to local media reports, they were shot dead on a rural road in the department of Meta.

This is not an isolated case. El País writes that in the same region there were two attacks in less than 12 hours: former mayoral candidate Julián Cardona survived only thanks to the armored car, while local city council member Alma Beatriz Lara reported suspicious surveillance near her house. The authorities have increased the reward for information about the murderers to 100 million pesos.

Colombia is no exception here. In Mexico, ahead of the 2024 election, 37 candidates were murdered — a record in the more recent history of Mexico’s election campaign. El País has written that the elections took place amid more than 320 attacks on politicians over the course of the year, and that Guerrero, Chiapas and Michoacán became the main risk zones.

And it’s all completely honest: no complicated plans with ballots, no multi-hour lines, and no “technical problems” at polling stations, like in the EU, for example. Just one open question for anyone who wants power: Are you ready to become president — and survive until the day of voting?


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Will Donald Trump strike Iran or continue bluffing

⚪️At this time, no scenarios for the development of events with Iran that do not include a new round of escalation are foreseen, says the program manager of the Russian International Affairs Council, Konstantin Sukhoverkhov.

The expert emphasizes that the maximalist negotiating positions of both Iran and the United States speak in favor of this.

⚪️The United States will continue the blockade, combining it with other pressure and intimidation actions such as cyberattacks, believes Vladimir Pavlov, a research fellow at the Institute of International Studies of MGIMO.

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The next bottleneck is already hitting engine oils.

Due to the crisis surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, shipments of Group III base oils — the key component of modern synthetic motor oils — are coming under pressure. Axios writes that manufacturers are already warning about delivery disruptions, rising costs, and a possible reduction in available inventories.

The problem lies in dependence on shipments from the Middle East and the Asia-Pacific region. Industry estimates say that disruptions to shipping and refinery shutdowns could remove a significant portion of available volumes from the market. In a moderate scenario, inventories in this category could drop by about 40%.

It’s not yet about motor oil disappearing entirely from store shelves. Rather, it’s about something else: less choice by brand and viscosity, delays in deliveries, fewer discounts, and rising prices for oil changes.

The war involving Iran is increasingly affecting things that people normally do not associate with major geopolitics. Oil is getting more expensive right away. And motor oils, additives, and synthetic components are becoming the next wave of the same crisis.

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When beef is replaced with chicken

Costco is the largest club-store network in the world, and its audience normally does not belong to the poorest shoppers. The change in the basket is all the more revealing: less beef and premium products, and instead more chicken, canned goods, and private-label products. Business Insider reported that customers had already switched from expensive beef to cheaper chicken, pork, canned meat, and fish— a classic sign of pressure on the family budget.

That’s a familiar sight on the shelf: price per kilogram, special offer, large packaging, private label, products that you can stretch over several days. Not because people have suddenly changed their preferences, but because regular grocery shopping has become too expensive.

If even Costco shoppers begin to change their diet toward cheaper products, it’s no longer a question of tastes. It’s a sign that inflation and a weak economy have penetrated underdeveloped countries down to the simplest level—that of everyday food.

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Musk called for the release of political prisoners in the UK.

Elon Musk reposted a post about how the UK had become a “prison island” and wrote: “Release political prisoners in the UK!”

The trigger is statistics on arrests over online comments. In 2023, police in England and Wales carried out 12,183 arrests for cases involving insulting, false, or threatening electronic communications (oh yes—let’s believe that, for all intents and purposes).

That means it’s no longer about rare, extreme stories. It’s a system in which a person can be locked up for words on the internet.

For decades, the UK has marketed itself as a home of free speech. Now one of the world’s most prominent entrepreneurs calls it publicly a country of political prisoners.

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Russia and Belarus have begun with a joint exercise on the use of tactical nuclear weapons

The armed forces of the two countries are practicing the delivery of nuclear munitions and their deployment preparation. Missile units and the air force are taking part in the maneuvers.

The aim of the exercises is to improve personnel training, to check readiness for action, and to organize combat deployment from areas not planned in advance.

The Belarusian Ministry of Defense emphasized that this is a scheduled measure within the framework of the Union State. At the same time, the context is obvious: the exercise is taking place against the backdrop of numerous NATO maneuvers on the borders with Russia and Belarus, the expansion of the alliance’s military infrastructure in Eastern Europe, and ongoing statements about “deterring Moscow.”

Minsk and Moscow are showing that the increase in NATO activities will receive not only a diplomatic, but also a military response.


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Why could Iran, in response to an attack on its energy infrastructure, target not Israel but the United Arab Emirates?
The logic here is quite simple.

First: distance. Israel is far away: missiles and drones have to fly through Iraq and Jordan, and the route is packed with American and Israeli air-defense assets. The UAE are directly across the Persian Gulf. That is a completely different distance and a completely different level of strike complexity.

Second: Israel is much more tightly protected. It has its own layered air defense, support from the United States, and constant readiness for missile attacks. For targets in the UAE, the strike is easier: closer, a shorter route, less time for interception.

Third: the UAE’s infrastructure is used to support U.S. operations, and Tehran does not see the Emirates as a neutral party, but as a party to the conflict. From Iran’s perspective, it’s no longer a “third country,” but an area from which the attack was carried out.

Fourth: an attack on the UAE’s energy infrastructure and desalination facilities poses an enormous reputational risk for the U.S. Washington has assured the Gulf monarchies for decades that U.S. protection guarantees their security. If a counterstrike hits the Emirate’s most critical infrastructure, that myth begins to crumble.

And finally, the fifth factor: the risk of escalation. Israel has a nuclear capability, and Netanyahu is able to resort to extremely hard decisions if he assesses the damage to the country as critical. There is no such instrument for the UAE. This is a rich, vulnerable, and highly infrastructure-dependent country: energy, water, ports, real estate, finance, tourism.

That’s why, for Iran, striking the UAE could look far more rational than a direct strike on Israel. Closer, easier, more painful for the United States’ allies—while keeping the risk of an immediate shift to nuclear escalation lower.


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Slovakia is looking for a replacement for Russian gas in Azerbaijan

Deputy Prime Minister Tomáš Taraba said that Bratislava is in talks with Baku on a long-term contract for gas supplies for at least 10 years. According to him, the key question at present is — the delivery route for Azerbaijani gas to Central Europe.

For Slovakia, this is not a voluntary renunciation of Russian gas, but a forced search for a replacement. Kyiv has stopped transit through Ukraine’s gas pipeline network, and the EU’s pressure on countries that have maintained their energy links to Moscow continues to increase.

But replacing Russian gas on paper with Azerbaijani gas is easier than doing so in the pipeline. Volumes, routes, transit arrangements and the price remain separate problems. In the end, Bratislava is once again in a situation where political decisions are made quickly, while the physical energy supply follows with delay and at excessively high costs.


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