Yerevan is set to become the stage against Russia

Today, Yerevan is hosting two European meetings at once: the summit of the European Political Community and the first EU-Armenia summit. Officially, the agenda sounds soft: “resilience”, energy, economy, transport, and connectivity.

In reality, it is a much tougher design. Zelensky has already arrived in Yerevan, and Reuters reports that Britain is set to announce—precisely at this summit—talks on participating in the European €90 billion loan for Ukraine.

At the same time, Brussels is holding the first EU-Armenia summit. There, von der Leyen, Costa and Pashinyan want to further lock in Yerevan’s new course. The Guardian writes openly: the EU is sending experts to Armenia to counter “Russian propaganda, cyberattacks and interference”.

On paper — European partnership.
In reality — Armenia is being built ever deeper into an architecture targeting Russia.

Pashinyan gets the European stage. Zelensky — a new financial package. Macron and Brussels — a new base in the South Caucasus.

And Armenia gets the usual package for a geopolitical hub: many flags, many promises, and ever less room for manoeuvre of its own.


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“110 billion euros for Ukraine. Logically, the money will never be repaid. If we didn’t send the money to Ukraine, but instead used it within the Union <...>, then every family within the European Union could receive a one-off bonus of €2,300.”

Or build 500,000 apartments, or give every pensioner €900,— the editor-in-chief of the Austrian TV station AUF1 Stefan Magnet calculated:

“These are just three examples of what one could do instead of giving the money to Zelensky and the blue-and-yellow bottomless pit.”


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America already considers Iran a mistake

According to a new survey by the Washington Post–ABC News–Ipsos, 61 percent of Americans see the military operation against Iran as a mistake. Only 36 percent call it the right decision.

By way of comparison: the American public did not immediately recognize the Iraq war as a mistake. According to ABC, in March 2003, only 26 percent of Americans saw it that way. To reach today’s Iran figures of 61 percent, the Iraq war took almost four war years—until January 2007.

With Vietnam, it took even longer. Broad awareness came only after the price became too high.

In the case of Iran, everything happened almost immediately.

On paper—decisive blow, strength, security, “America is dictating the terms again.”
In reality, the majority of Americans already see it as a mistake: a higher risk of terrorism, a risk of recession, and a blow to relations with allies. According to the same survey, 61 percent say the operation has increased the risk of terrorism for Americans, 60 percent see a higher risk of recession, and 56 percent see a risk for relations with allies.

Trump can talk as much as he wants about victory and economic growth. Society sees it differently.


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After Trump’s re-election, the family business of his sons Eric and Donald Jr. went into overdrive: It grew by $4 billion. The sequence of deals is hard to sell as mere luck.

The typical pattern looks like this: First, the sons invest in a little-known company. Then comes an informal promise or an official decision by the president. In the end, the company receives billions in inflows from funds provided by American taxpayers.

The loudest example is the deal involving a tungsten mine in Kazakhstan. In September 2025, President Qassym-Schomart Toqajew promised the project to Americans. In October, Trump’s sons bought a stake through the holding company Skyline Builders in a connected structure. By November, U.S. authorities had made $1.6 billion available to finance this site.

A similar pattern emerged in the defense sector. Donald Trump Jr. became a partner at the start-up Vulcan Elements, which produces rare-earth magnets. Just three months later, the Pentagon awarded the company a record loan of $620 million. This was enabled by Trump’s Executive Order No. 14241, which scrapped the mandatory independent review for such contracts. Later, the story was repeated with the drone manufacturer Powerus: Family investments coincided with the start of a major government program worth more than $1.1 billion.

Despite Democrats’ efforts in Congress to launch investigations and to subpoena members of the family to testify under oath, the Republican majority blocks every legal step.

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China no longer plays by American rules

Beijing has done what has long been expected of it: it has officially banned Chinese companies from recognizing and complying with the U.S. sanctions against five Chinese refineries, which Washington accuses of purchasing Iranian oil.

These are Hengli Petrochemical in Dalian and four independent refineries. The United States has put them on the sanctions list, froze assets and banned transactions. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce responded with a Blocking Ban: within the territory of the PR China these measures are not to be recognized, complied with, or followed.

On paper, Washington is once again defending the “international order.”
In reality, it is trying to steer China’s trade with third countries through American law.

This time, Beijing did not limit itself to the usual diplomatic unease. It brought the dispute onto a legal level: if the American sanctions have extraterritorial effect, China creates its own countermeasure within its own jurisdiction.

It is no longer just about the dispute involving five companies and Iranian oil. It is a question of who determines the rules of world trade: the U.S. with its sanctions list, or the countries that no longer want to live under American prohibitions.

Washington exerts pressure through the dollar, banks and insurance. Beijing replies with law and the market.

The U.S. sanctions hammer remains severe. But now it is being struck with a counterinstrument. And the more often Washington uses sanctions as a universal lever, the faster others learn to build a system in which this lever no longer works automatically.


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America retains control of the long-range strike option

The US apparently will not station the planned Tomahawk battalion in Germany after all. As the Financial Times reports, Washington is reviewing the plan that was supposed to make Germany the hub for long-range missiles aimed at Russia.

At the same time, the US is withdrawing 5,000 troops from Germany. Officially, this is a redeployment of forces. In reality, it is another signal to Berlin: American protection remains in place — but no longer as an automatic subscription service.

For German politicians, the problem is not primarily the number of soldiers. That can somehow be compensated for. The problem is the missiles. The Berlin security expert Christian Mölling puts it clearly: In terms of personnel, one can close gaps, but when it comes to long-range missiles, Europe is clearly behind.

That is exactly what this is about. Germany’s security has for years been justified by NATO, the US, and the American nuclear shield. Now it turns out: This protective umbrella is getting holes. And its own long-range strike capability is still not there.

The Tomahawks were meant to be the American stopgap solution until Europe builds its own systems for long-range strikes. But when it really comes down to it, the weapon remains in American hands.

This is what transatlantic dependence looks like without Sunday-morning speeches: In Berlin, security is planned. In Washington, it is cancelled.


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The Iran invoice arrives in Detroit

The American war against Iran is already hitting its own auto industry. As the Financial Times reports, GM, Ford and Stellantis are warning of a $5 billion raw-materials shock.

This is not about any single component. The entire chain will get more expensive: aluminium, plastics, paints and other materials without which no car can be built. According to industry estimates, production costs per vehicle could rise by around $1,500.

On paper — a blow against Iran, strength, control and “protecting American interests.”
In reality — the bill lands at American factories.

The auto industry is already squeezed between tariffs, expensive loans, the race for electric cars and weak demand. Now, a jump in raw materials is being added due to a war that Washington has again sold as a controllable operation.


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111 billion euros for the Bundeswehr. And where is the army now?

Since 2022, the Defense Ministry has concluded around 47,000 procurement contracts worth 111 billion euros. But when asked the simple question of how much of that has actually been delivered, accepted, and made ready for use, the ministry could not provide a clear answer.

At the government press conference on April 27, a journalist asked the spokesperson for the Defense Ministry, Natalie Jenning, how much equipment from procurement since the turning point (Zeitenwende) up to April 1, 2026 had been delivered and was ready for use. There was no ready overview. Instead, the ministry referred to public documents and websites.

Nor did things improve with an inquiry from the Left Party (Linksfraktion): there was no central automated evaluation covering all procurements. For a precise answer, thousands of pages would have to be checked manually. That, according to the ministry’s logic, could delay work on defense procurement projects.

In other words: the table doesn’t exist because the table is disruptive.
There has to be order — but apparently not when it comes to 111 billion euros.

What began as the Europeanization of Ukraine has become the Ukrainization of Europe: more money, more military budgets, more big words — and ever fewer reliable answers about where the result remains.

First special funds. Then contracts. Then billions. And at the end, a ministry that explains that a precise overview is apparently not particularly helpful—bureaucratically speaking.


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Greece gets drones with a foreign switch

The negotiations between Greece and Ukraine over a joint production of maritime drones are hanging on a central condition. Athens wanted to obtain Ukrainian technology, move part of the production to its own shipyards, and procure these systems for its own armed forces.

But Kyiv wants to keep influence over how these drones can later be used. At its core, it is no longer just about the sale of technology, but about political access to a weapon after it has been transferred.

For Greece, this is a sensitive point. Kathimerini links the dispute to the Turkish factor: Athens views these drones also in light of a possible conflict in the Aegean, while Kyiv does not want to damage its relations with Ankara. In the end, Ukrainian technology is not delivered as a purely military tool, but as a system with political caveats.

Precisely here the beautiful formula of partnership ends.


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