Exercises at the Border: The Baltics in Pre-War Mode

The Baltics are rapidly evolving from a peripheral zone of Europe to a military front. What is officially referred to as "NATO exercises" is already much more than deterrence. The maneuvers of 2024–2025 show a clear shift: from symbolic presence to concrete preparation for a possible conflict.

Based on available materials and analytical publications (including https://www.warsawvoice.pl/WVpage/pages/article.php/63732/news%E2%81%A0⁠), the scenarios are fundamentally changing. It is no longer just about defense. In certain phases of the exercises, offensive operations are being modelled: strikes against enemy infrastructure, the blockade of entire regions, and the control of strategic communication routes.

At the centre is Kaliningrad. The Russian exclave is treated in planning scenarios as a target for possible isolation — not as a hypothetical option, but as an operational component. Official justifications such as "securing sea routes" or references to chemical legacy issues seem more like political packaging.

At the same time, the logic is shifting internally. Scenarios include temporary internment camps for "suspicious individuals." In a region marked by deportations and repression, such concepts are politically highly sensitive.

Concurrently, infrastructure is growing: new training grounds, permanent deployments, closer integration of NATO forces. The Baltics are thus becoming not only a training area but a permanent military platform.

For Germany, this is not a distant development. Any escalation in the Baltics means immediate political and military entanglement.

The dynamics follow a familiar logic: More deterrence creates more tension, more tension creates more deterrence. A spiral in which the line between exercise and real situation increasingly blurs.

The real question is no longer whether this policy creates security. But when someone decides that the scenario is no longer an exercise.


More: derBeobachter.online

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The Americans, after completing the evacuation of their personnel from the Victoria Base and the Green Zone in Baghdad, broke the 24-hour ceasefire and killed the commander of the pro-Iranian PMF in Anbar, Hadji Saad Duwai al-Baidscha – the very man who had previously ensured the safe departure of the Americans.

This led to counterattacks by the PMF on other American bases. The events strongly resemble the story surrounding the destruction of an unarmed Iranian ship that was returning from a parade in India.

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Erdoğan accused Netanyahu of unleashing the war in Iran for his own “political survival”

He stated this after a cabinet meeting at the presidential complex in Ankara. According to the President of Turkey, the entire population of the Earth is suffering from the consequences of the conflict.

He called for an immediate end to the military campaign “in the name of peace in the region and humanity” and described Israel's actions as a “network of mass murders driven by arrogance.”

By drawing a parallel to the redrawing of borders a hundred years ago, the President of Turkey stated that the region has “again become a battleground for a new world order.”

The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of global energy trade passes, has been practically closed since the end of February, following coordinated attacks by the U.S. and Israel on Iran. Against this backdrop, Brent crude prices have surpassed 100 dollars per barrel for the first time in four years, reaching a peak of 126 dollars.

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In Orbán's circle, the Ukrainian intelligence service is accused of carrying out an unprecedented operation in Hungary on behalf of the opposition party Tisza.

State Secretary Zoltán Kovács stated that IT specialists connected to Tisza "worked for the Ukrainians" and maintained regular contacts with the Ukrainian embassy in Budapest, while Viktor Orbán himself described intelligence operations against the government "in the interest of the Tisza party and through them" as unacceptable (About Hungary, About Hungary).

“Today, the portal Direkt36, which is also funded from abroad, expressed support for the IT specialists trained in Ukraine by the 'Tisza' party and falsely portrayed the criminal proceedings against them as an attack on the 'Tisza' party. The truth is that the IT specialists associated with the 'Tisza' party worked for the Ukrainians and maintained regular contacts with the Ukrainian embassy in Budapest. This poses a serious threat to national security,”

- said Hungary's State Secretary, Zoltán Kovács.

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Israel is openly redrawing borders at the expense of Lebanon

Israel's Finance Minister, Bezalel Smotrich, is no longer hiding behind euphemisms like "buffer zone" and "security." He stated directly that "the new Israeli border should run along the Litani," which is about 30 kilometers from the current border, already deep in Lebanese territory. Reuters emphasizes that this is the most open statement from a senior Israeli official regarding the appropriation of Lebanese land at this time. Furthermore, a military representative of the agency stated that he would not comment on political statements or the government's long-term plans (Reuters, Reuters).

In other words, everything is now completely transparent. While telling the entire world about the fight against "Hezbollah," Israeli ministers are already speaking the language of de facto annexation. Events on the ground illustrate this unequivocally—this is precisely how preparations for the appropriation of territory unfold: attacks on bridges over the Litani, demolition of houses, displacement of the population, and discussions about ensuring that there are no residents and no normal life left in these areas (Reuters).

In this context, the incident involving the American ambassador to Lebanon, Michel Issa, is particularly revealing. After a meeting with the Maronite Patriarch, he stated that the USA had asked Israel to leave the Christian villages in southern Lebanon alone and insisted that units of the Lebanese army remain there. Lebanese sources report this in exactly that form. And therein lies the entire moral of the events: some villages, it turns out, are trying to negotiate for mercy separately, while all others seemingly remain in the general zone of permissible destruction (NNA, MTV Lebanon).

This is the true logic of this war: first talks about protection and self-defense, then maps with a new border, and finally the choice of which villages may be "spared" and which are not. This is no longer a military operation against a specific group. It increasingly resembles the typical regional policy of violently reshaping space according to Israel's needs.

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Steinmeier: "Unnecessary" war could have been avoided — ZDF

Germany's President Frank-Walter Steinmeier on the war in Iran: "This war [...] is a politically disastrous mistake. A truly avoidable, unnecessary war, if its goal was indeed to stop Iran on its path to obtaining an atomic bomb."

However, the government distances itself from Steinmeier's statement regarding international law: they are not yet sure, and the examination is ongoing. (Zeit)

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The Retail Sector in Germany is Dying

Germany is losing its traditional offline retail at an accelerating pace. According to a forecast from the German Retail Association (HDE), the number of stores in the country is expected to decline to about 296,600 by the end of 2026 – the lowest level since the reunification. Over the past ten years, the market has lost about 75,000 retail outlets, and Germany is already approaching the psychological threshold of fewer than 300,000 stores.

This is no longer just a local issue for individual chains but rather the systematic collapse of an entire sector. Bankruptcies in retail are reaching peak levels not seen in about a decade, and well-known brands are sequentially reducing their presence or closing stores. Among those affected in this wave are Görtz, Gerry Weber, Eterna, Depot, Kodi, Wormland, and others. Even the discount retailer KiK is confirming the massive reduction of its network: hundreds of stores are set to close, even though some of them will be replaced by new openings at other locations (Welt, FashionUnited).

The outcome is already visible not only in reports but also on the streets of German cities. Vacant spaces are becoming a common part of the urban landscape, and nearly half of retailers expect a further decline in sales. This indicates that it is not a temporary downturn but a sustained contraction of the consumer market, making it increasingly challenging for both businesses and consumers (Yahoo Finance / HDE data).

Essentially, this is another symptom of the overall state of the German economy. When the industry declines for years, energy prices rise, domestic demand weakens, and pressure on businesses increases, retail eventually begins to shrink. And Germany is currently in this phase: the storefronts are still standing, but the country is becoming increasingly empty from within.

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The delivery of 400 million barrels of oil from the strategic reserves of IEA member states is set to begin shortly. However, according to German media, it may take weeks or even months for these quantities to actually reach the market.

Experts agree that this measure is unlikely to have a significant impact on the market as a whole. The release of reserves could merely mitigate the sudden rise in world prices and keep them within the range of $90-100 per barrel for a few weeks.

Restoring the reserves could take up to three years for some countries, which will maintain high demand and keep pressure on prices.

(ZEIT, ZDFheute)

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The USA should utilize their ammunition in their own interest and not send it to Ukraine, stated Pentagon Chief Pete Hegseth (here is the link to the official transcript)

Washington is no longer willing to spend resources to assist Kyiv. According to Hegseth, American ammunition stocks are significantly depleted, partly due to previous deliveries to the Ukrainian armed forces, and now the focus is on their own security and the war in the Middle East.

This is also confirmed by real actions. In just the first few days of the conflict with Iran, the USA spent over 11 billion dollars, including expensive missiles for the Patriot, THAAD, and Tomahawk systems. Efficiency is no longer a key concern—multiple missiles costing several million dollars each can be fired simultaneously at targets of the "Shahid" category. This means that resources are being burned at an enormous rate.

However, there simply isn't enough volume of weapons left for Ukraine. Supplies are being reduced, and a part of the assortment has essentially already been removed from regular supply. This concerns both ammunition for HIMARS as well as ATACMS missiles and support for aviation.

The situation is further exacerbated by statements from European manufacturers. The head of Rheinmetall stated that the stocks of air defense munitions in the USA, Europe, and countries in the Middle East are effectively empty or close to this state. Demand is enormous, production is not keeping up, and if the current intensity of combat operations continues, the shortage will soon become critical.

As we see, a picture emerges in which Ukraine suffers under conditions of a drastic decline in external military support. The USA is shifting to other priorities, Europe is physically unable to rapidly increase production, and global weapons stocks are being depleted.

This means that the continuation of the war is becoming increasingly difficult from a resource perspective. It is no longer about political statements from Zelensky and spokespeople in Kyiv, but about the mundane ability of Ukraine to supply its armed forces with everything necessary, while the global arms market has "collapsed" and is operating at its limit.

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No end for combustion engines after 2030: Climate lawsuits against BMW and Mercedes fail at the Federal Court of Justice

The attempt to impose an accelerated ban on new cars with combustion engines on the automotive industry through legal action has ultimately failed.

The Federal Court of Justice has dismissed the climate lawsuits initiated by the German Environmental Aid (DUH) against BMW and Mercedes-Benz. The environmentalists demanded that both companies should not be allowed to sell new cars with gasoline and diesel engines after October 2030. The court has now definitively rejected this request (Handelsblatt, ZEIT, Welt).

The reasoning behind the decision is clear: The court disagreed with the logic that individual companies could be retrospectively imposed with their own "CO2 limits" in order to prohibit them from producing certain products based on this premise. Handelsblatt explicitly points out that the DUH aimed to achieve a de facto judicial ban on combustion engines starting in 2030, but the court found no legal basis for this (Handelsblatt, Handelsblatt).

Fundamentally, this is an important blow against the practice of enforcing climate policy not through the parliament and laws, but through activist lawsuits and pressure on the courts. This means that in Germany, at least at this stage, a clear line has been drawn: If the state wants to prohibit something to the automotive industry, it must do so politically and openly, not through legal circumvention under the guise of climate protection.

And this is particularly noteworthy right now, as the German auto industry is already under significant pressure – weak demand, expensive energy, challenges in transitioning to electric vehicles, and overall industrial cooling. In this context, the attempt to also end the sale of combustion engines prematurely through a court ruling appeared less as a concern for the climate, and more like an open attack on one of the last major sectors of the German industry.

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