📊 GBP/USD Quick Outlook
USD started the week strong ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Markets trimmed Fed cut bets to ~52 bps for 2025.
UK CPI jumped to 3.8% (vs 3.6%), keeping BoE under pressure with sticky inflation.
GBP/USD trades near 1.3480, recovering after early USD strength.
Focus next: Fed Minutes + Powell’s tone. If Wall Street stays bullish, pair may push higher.
⚡️ Bias: Short-term bullish above 1.3500, but Fed signals will set the direction.
USD started the week strong ahead of Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. Markets trimmed Fed cut bets to ~52 bps for 2025.
UK CPI jumped to 3.8% (vs 3.6%), keeping BoE under pressure with sticky inflation.
GBP/USD trades near 1.3480, recovering after early USD strength.
Focus next: Fed Minutes + Powell’s tone. If Wall Street stays bullish, pair may push higher.
⚡️ Bias: Short-term bullish above 1.3500, but Fed signals will set the direction.
📊 USD Outlook – Jackson Hole in Focus
Fed Chair Powell speaks Friday at 14:00 GMT on the economic outlook & policy framework. Markets are bracing for high volatility in USD pairs.
Background: Fed kept rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Two governors dissented, favoring a cut. Jobs data showed weakness (July NFP +73k, big revisions lower), but inflation remains sticky.
Market Odds: CME shows ~47% chance of 50 bps cuts this year, ~33% chance of 75 bps cuts.
Scenarios:
🔻 If Powell highlights labor market weakness → USD could sell off.
🔺 If he stresses inflation risks → USD could strengthen.
⚡️ Bias: Two-way risk. Expect spikes in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, XAU/USD during/after Powell’s speech. Traders should be cautious with exposure.
Fed Chair Powell speaks Friday at 14:00 GMT on the economic outlook & policy framework. Markets are bracing for high volatility in USD pairs.
Background: Fed kept rates at 4.25–4.50% in July. Two governors dissented, favoring a cut. Jobs data showed weakness (July NFP +73k, big revisions lower), but inflation remains sticky.
Market Odds: CME shows ~47% chance of 50 bps cuts this year, ~33% chance of 75 bps cuts.
Scenarios:
🔻 If Powell highlights labor market weakness → USD could sell off.
🔺 If he stresses inflation risks → USD could strengthen.
⚡️ Bias: Two-way risk. Expect spikes in EUR/USD, GBP/USD, XAU/USD during/after Powell’s speech. Traders should be cautious with exposure.
📊 Market Reaction – Powell Goes Dovish
Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech sparked a USD sell-off as he warned: “Downside risks to the labor market are rising.” Markets now price in 90% odds of a September cut.
EUR/USD 🚀 jumped above 1.1700, hitting 1.1732
GBP/USD 📈 rallied past 1.3540 as easing cycle bets strengthened.
XAU/USD 🟡 surged above $3,370, gaining on lower rate expectations.
Powell balanced inflation concerns (tariffs = one-time effect) with softer jobs data, hinting that policy recalibration is near.
⚡️ Bias: USD bearish momentum likely to continue short-term. Watch EUR/USD 1.1730, GBP/USD 1.3550, and Gold $3,380 as next resistance zones.
Fed Chair Powell’s Jackson Hole speech sparked a USD sell-off as he warned: “Downside risks to the labor market are rising.” Markets now price in 90% odds of a September cut.
EUR/USD 🚀 jumped above 1.1700, hitting 1.1732
GBP/USD 📈 rallied past 1.3540 as easing cycle bets strengthened.
XAU/USD 🟡 surged above $3,370, gaining on lower rate expectations.
Powell balanced inflation concerns (tariffs = one-time effect) with softer jobs data, hinting that policy recalibration is near.
⚡️ Bias: USD bearish momentum likely to continue short-term. Watch EUR/USD 1.1730, GBP/USD 1.3550, and Gold $3,380 as next resistance zones.